TP
Global Moderator
- Dec 2, 2008
- 50,458
- 23,768
What's the over under on trading down again in the next few rounds?
Are you asking for the odds of it happening or the over/under on the number of times it happens.
Odds - 1:1 - I think it's a given they'll do it at least once.
Over/Under - 1.5 - I'll take the over
Hey, Dickie Dunn wrote this. It's gotta be true.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/st...shows-more-value-2nd-round-picks-1st-rounders
The money doesn't matter to me or most fans though. I don't care that second rounders cost less and that their value is higher because of that. I want game breaking talent, and the odds of finding that later in the draft are lower than if they traded up instead of down.
I'm with ya.
Still wish they'd have pulled the trigger on the Peppers trade.
i'd love to have the dataset on that study to answer some questions i have:
- what's the merit function for "effectiveness"
- are they treating pick #33 the same as #64
- what's the average and standard deviation in effectiveness as a function of draft number
- the league is capped so you can only have so many dollars spent; you can also only have so many guys on the field, so how are they doing the merit function that takes into account two 2nd round guys at 70% of the effectiveness versus one 1st round guy at 100%
- why am i spending my time at work when it seems like if one demonstrates an undergrad-level understanding of statistics, they are better positioned than half of the damn gms in sports
You'd figure the concept that a quarter is worth more than two dimes is relatively easy to grasp, but apparently not.
I'm glad I didn't watch. It must be frustrating to wait three hours only to have your team trade out at the last minute.
I'm glad I didn't watch. It must be frustrating to wait three hours only to have your team trade out at the last minute.