Off-Season Thread: Free Agency & Trade Talk

[Jkalapeno]

Yeah, that's the problem. If we wanted 3OA the price would probably be Tatar+16OA+46OA+Mantha for Clarkson and 3OA...and that wouldn't be worth it. But the Nyquist+16OA trade is absolutely a no-brainer. We'd have to draft Puljujarvi though who very feasibly could be better than Laine and Matthews.

Exactly. The guy has been compared to Selanne, although that's because he's a Fin. But still, that's a big price that you are going to pay.

 

[Mister Ed]

Yeah, that's the problem. If we wanted 3OA the price would probably be Tatar+16OA+46OA+Mantha for Clarkson and 3OA...and that wouldn't be worth it. But the Nyquist+16OA trade is absolutely a no-brainer. We'd have to draft Puljujarvi though who very feasibly could be better than Laine and Matthews.

That's a steep price for the 3rd OA, I'd think it would be an overpayment.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

That's a steep price for the 3rd OA, I'd think it would be an overpayment.

That is a massive overpayment. Tatar is a proven 50p winger. Mantha has the tools to be a good bit more than that. 16th overall or close to it has gotten us Mantha, Larkin and Svech in the last three years.

Again, I'm trading three assets like that (plus a 2nd on top of it) I'm getting more than Jesse Puljujarvi. I'm getting a proven young player, preferably one who can play top pairing D.

So I don't mean Juolevi or Sergachev. I mean Barrie or Brodin or maybe switch out one piece for something bigger and try to land an OEL or something.

Four assets with three being 1st round level is what I'm trading for a top pairing D not a draft pick winger.

 

[HisNoodliness]

That's a steep price for the 3rd OA, I'd think it would be an overpayment.

I certainly wouldn't pay it, but honestly that's what you'd pay probably. Maybe take out the 46th but those are the kind of deals Columbus will be offered. No way Kenny is willing to do what it takes to get 3OA...with good reason.

 

[jkutswings]

For those in the reload with Stamkos camp, I'd like to know how you plan on filling the biggest hole on the team: a #1 defenseman.

Say we trade Datsyuk's cap hit and sign Stamkos at $10M x 7. The people confident in how much he would impact the team would probably say we'd be a bubble playoff team, so we're probably drafting somewhere around 15.

With Holland's draft record on defensemen, are you betting he's suddenly going to strike gold at 15? And if so, how long until the kid really shines? 3 years? 5? More?

Or is he already on the roster? Will Marchenko or XO or some other youngster blossom, either overnight, or in how many more years?

Or will it be a trade? Considering how rarely Kenny has pulled off ANY trade, and that wingers are our only real bartering currency, and that defensemen are more valuable than wingers, how many pieces do we have to move? And if we pull it off, how do we replace those wingers, and in what timeframe?

I just don't see it happening, and I definitely don't see a #1 defenseman hitting free agency. But enlighten me, and show me how THIS GM is going to solve a problem that's nearly a decade in the making.

Because to me, it would make more sense to NOT sign Stamkos, use your strength (drafting 2nd / fringe 1st line wingers) to trade Nyquist for a top 4 d-man, and use a top 5 pick on a #1 defenseman. Then take the next 2-3 drafts and offseasons to replenish your forwards, while Larkin and Defenseman X grow, and you likely have another 2-3 top 10 picks along the way to build a cheap yet talented core for around 2020, that could last a good 5-7 years of contention.

 

[Chance on Chance]

For those in the reload with Stamkos camp, I'd like to know how you plan on filling the biggest hole on the team: a #1 defenseman.

Say we trade Datsyuk's cap hit and sign Stamkos at $10M x 7. The people confident in how much he would impact the team would probably say we'd be a bubble playoff team, so we're probably drafting somewhere around 15.

With Holland's draft record on defensemen, are you betting he's suddenly going to strike gold at 15? And if so, how long until the kid really shines? 3 years? 5? More?

Or is he already on the roster? Will Marchenko or XO or some other youngster blossom, either overnight, or in how many more years?

Or will it be a trade? Considering how rarely Kenny has pulled off ANY trade, and that wingers are our only real bartering currency, and that defensemen are more valuable than wingers, how many pieces do we have to move? And if we pull it off, how do we replace those wingers, and in what timeframe?

I just don't see it happening, and I definitely don't see a #1 defenseman hitting free agency. But enlighten me, and show me how THIS GM is going to solve a problem that's nearly a decade in the making.

Because to me, it would make more sense to NOT sign Stamkos, use your strength (drafting 2nd / fringe 1st line wingers) to trade Nyquist for a top 4 d-man, and use a top 5 pick on a #1 defenseman. Then take the next 2-3 drafts and offseasons to replenish your forwards, while Larkin and Defenseman X grow, and you likely have another 2-3 top 10 picks along the way to build a cheap yet talented core for around 2020, that could last a good 5-7 years of contention.

He's gonna hope he can get lucky like with Dats and Z in the last couple rounds for defense. And you're right with it will be 5+ years before we know if they can be a #1. Dont they say it takes 300 NHL games with a Dman before you really know what you have.

He'll wanna sign Stamkos just to keep the streak alive. The wings arent looking to play for cups they're looking to play for playoff appearances

 

[Frk It]

For those in the reload with Stamkos camp, I'd like to know how you plan on filling the biggest hole on the team: a #1 defenseman.

Say we trade Datsyuk's cap hit and sign Stamkos at $10M x 7. The people confident in how much he would impact the team would probably say we'd be a bubble playoff team, so we're probably drafting somewhere around 15.

With Holland's draft record on defensemen, are you betting he's suddenly going to strike gold at 15? And if so, how long until the kid really shines? 3 years? 5? More?

Or is he already on the roster? Will Marchenko or XO or some other youngster blossom, either overnight, or in how many more years?

Or will it be a trade? Considering how rarely Kenny has pulled off ANY trade, and that wingers are our only real bartering currency, and that defensemen are more valuable than wingers, how many pieces do we have to move? And if we pull it off, how do we replace those wingers, and in what timeframe?

I just don't see it happening, and I definitely don't see a #1 defenseman hitting free agency. But enlighten me, and show me how THIS GM is going to solve a problem that's nearly a decade in the making.

Because to me, it would make more sense to NOT sign Stamkos, use your strength (drafting 2nd / fringe 1st line wingers) to trade Nyquist for a top 4 d-man, and use a top 5 pick on a #1 defenseman. Then take the next 2-3 drafts and offseasons to replenish your forwards, while Larkin and Defenseman X grow, and you likely have another 2-3 top 10 picks along the way to build a cheap yet talented core for around 2020, that could last a good 5-7 years of contention.

What if we don't sign Stamkos, and then still don't finish bottom 5, or bottom 10?

Or what if we do forego signing Stamkos, then get a top 5 pick or two, only to get a defenseman like Erik Gudbrandson, or Griffin Reinhart? Or what if we don't use the top 5 pick on a defenseman at all? Could very well be a year that is forward heavy, and Ken Holland loves him some BPA.

You fix what you can, when you can. If there is a 40-50 goal forward out there that is 26 years old, and you can reasonably pursue that piece, you do.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

What happened to this tweet about us making a trade yesterday evening?

 

[Retire91]

Another thought re the burn it down re-build philosophy (apart from the annual race to the bottom), is the fairly obvious one that unless you are picking in the top 4 or 5 every year for 3,4 or 5 years, or you get super lucky with a Crosby, Mcdavid year, there are more teams failing with this strategy than succeeding.

Given that apart from Yzerman, maybe Primeau and potentially Larkin in the future, Detroit's attempts at drafting in the first half of the first round has actually been no more productive than rounds 4, 5, 6 & 7 (and beyond) consistently for the last 40 years, the assumption of guarantees is a false one.

Yes, OF COURSE you have a higher chance of getting absolute top quality at the top of the first round, but apart from franchise forwards, you statistically proven to be just as likely to get bonafide first line players in the 2nd half of round 1 and round 2, even ignoring those that slip down significantly.

Sure, one can't rely on picking up a cornerstone Duncan Keith, Erik Karlsson (straight outta #15 purgatory), Shea Weber, Corey Perry, Getzlaf, Giroux, Bergeron, Subban, Carlson, Parise, Tarasenko, Pacioretty, Josi, Faulk or even a major complementary piece like Oshie, O'Reilly, Vlasic, Niskanen, Eriksson, Krejci, Hamonic, Kessler or Backes or countless others but they are out there every year.

And that's ignoring Jamie Benn, Edler, Letang, Pavelski, Klingberg, Brodie, Giordano, Stralman, Johnson, Gaudreau etc etc etc and almost all the top NHL goalies that have been picked up much later in the last decade.

One can't rely on lucky drafting, this we know. But its still relatively recently that the wings have tried to hang on to high picks rather than flipping them at the deadline, and these have resulted in players who's future window people are talking about not wanting to ruin.

If we were bad enough to have a chance at getting a high % lottery pick for 2/3/4 years in a row, then we should of course go down that route. But even with Dats gone, Z & Kronner on their last legs and Ericsson's dodgy hip, we probably aren't that bad unless we trade away a significant number of those likely to be the older members of a future home-grown core.

So refusing to go after Stamkos or similar to facilitate a tank is crazy - we're not bad enough to do so right now, and we might never pick a player as good as Stamkos even if we do.

Of those old enough to merit some assessment, a top 5 pick could as easily land you Yakupov, Ryan Murray, Griffin Reinhart, RNH, Gudbranson, Niederreiter, Evander Kane, Luke Schenn, or Thomas Hickey as it could a franchise player.

6-10 could be Brett Connolly, Burmistrov, Mcilrath, Cowan, Glennie, Paajarvi, Filatov, Zach Hammil or Ellerby...hardly a guarantee.

And that's just using a choice of 5 draft years. The further you go back, the worse it gets.

Jam today is invariably more reliable than Jam tomorrow.

If we strike out in FA, ok lets go with the kids and take it as it comes, playoffs be damned - they might surprise us and make the playoffs anyway. But if we have the chance to pick up a franchise player or one or two other possible genuine first line players, it would be foolish not to.

No pick in the draft is a guarantee but you are statistically more likely to get elite talent the higher in the draft you pick. We could pick top five for 3-4 seasons in a row and completely bust on every one. You are right it could happen but it is statistically not likely to happen. The wings track record may not be great in the top 15 but that because they have not had many, there is a very small pool to draw from. The top 5 and sometimes in the top 10 are the only place to get players that do not have obvious question marks, that have complete games and are usually ready in a season or two to step in with the club. Outside of that range is a project player. The wings need to get some higher caliber prospects that have their whole career ahead of them that are in the same age range as Larkin. Mrazek may be older but goalies tend to peak longer than skaters.

I am not for intentionally being bad, I am just for stopping the quest for an immediate fix to keep this team going in the playoffs. This team with a few pieces added is still not a contender and adding UFA to a non-existent core is not going to make it a contender. Every season is magic bullet after magic bullet to keep this team limping into the playoffs at the expense of picks, draft placement, and ice time the kids could be learning with.

Don't tank just to get high picks but manage the team like you are trying to foster a new core. This team does not do that in any way shape or form. Always "going for it" overbaking prospects, bringing in veterans on 1 and two year deals. These are all signs of a team desperate to make the playoffs and not protecting the resources that foster a new core. Holland has squandered this team's non-cup window and this mish mosh roster is the payoff. It takes 5-10 years to fix a team do we want to start now, or 'maigc bullet' Stamkos onto the team and put it off what is really needed another 4 or 5 seasons

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

What happened to this tweet about us making a trade yesterday evening?

 

[HisNoodliness]

What happened to this tweet about us making a trade yesterday evening?

I never saw it. What was the trade?

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I never saw it. What was the trade?

It just said we about to trade aeay some youth, have a look back a page as someone posted the tweet.

 

[Retire91]

What happened to this tweet about us making a trade yesterday evening?

I saw it but nothing went down that I am aware of

 

[Frk It]

It just said we about to trade aeay some youth, have a look back a page as someone posted the tweet.

Looking back on it, it was incredibly vague. Gave no timeline, gave no team, it just was very ambiguous. Got us all excited for nothing.

If it was supposed to imply we were unloading Datsyuk's contract, it would be stupid to do that right now anyways. You only should unload that when you know you can use the cap space for something, IMO.

 

[Run the Jewels]

That's a steep price for the 3rd OA, I'd think it would be an overpayment.

I'd be more inclined to try to get the 5th or 7th pick. That way you still have a good shot at getting your #1 d-man with Juolevi or Sergachev. Odds are pretty good we'll be drafting in the top 10 next year and you have a better shot at getting a really good forward in any given year than the odds you will be able to get a d-man prospect who projects to be a #1 d-man. So target the d-man this year where there are two guys who project to be exactly what you need in order to truly rebuild.

Not that I see Holland making an aggressive trade like that, this is more just hypothetical talk.

 

[Retire91]

I'd be more inclined to try to get the 5th or 7th pick. That way you still have a good shot at getting your #1 d-man with Juolevi or Sergachev. Odds are pretty good we'll be drafting in the top 10 next year and you have a better shot at getting a really good forward in any given year than the odds you will be able to get a d-man prospect who projects to be a #1 d-man. So target the d-man this year where there are two guys who project to be exactly what you need in order to truly rebuild.

Not that I see Holland making an aggressive trade like that, this is more just hypothetical talk.

Totally agree the top end of the draft is forwards if we take a D there would still be a great one in the 5-7 range.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Looking back on it, it was incredibly vague. Gave no timeline, gave no team, it just was very ambiguous. Got us all excited for nothing.

If it was supposed to imply we were unloading Datsyuk's contract, it would be stupid to do that right now anyways. You only should unload that when you know you can use the cap space for something, IMO.

so that means not until after the courtship period starts, Saturday?

that dosent leave much time to work things out as most or at the very least a lot of trades happen leading up to and at the draft, if KH leaves buffalo without making any trade whatsoever, my assumption is going to be we wont whatsoever

 

[HockeyinHD]

Chris Tanev is a vastly superior player to Brian Lashoff. It's a ludicrous comparison. They should have focused on that part.

They paired Tanev with their best dman (Edler) pretty much as heavily as Ericsson got paired with Kronwall. ~70% of his ES IT. He was essentially an over-used 5 playing top pair because the team had garbage all around him. When that happens to Ericsson, it's used as a club to bash his numbers about the head and shoulders.

Vastly superior. Good grief. On a roster with actual NHL dmen on it he'd be lucky as heck to be in the top 4 and is almost certainly a bottom pairing guy. In real terms he'd be maybe one or two spots ahead of Lashoff in Detroit, and it's not like I think Lashoff merits a roster spot. He's a 7-8, Tanev's a 5-6.

I wouldn't play Tanev over any of Detroit's top 4 dmen last year, and I very likely wouldn't play him over Marchenko either. I would play him over Smith. That's about it.

Lashoff, Kindl... pretty much what Tanev brings to the table. That's the guy a team has to be playing 20+ a night to get into the top 5.

 

[Frk It]

They paired Tanev with their best dman (Edler) pretty much as heavily as Ericsson got paired with Kronwall. ~70% of his ES IT. He was essentially an over-used 5 playing top pair because the team had garbage all around him. When that happens to Ericsson, it's used as a club to bash his numbers about the head and shoulders.

Vastly superior. Good grief. On a roster with actual NHL dmen on it he'd be lucky as heck to be in the top 4 and is almost certainly a bottom pairing guy. In real terms he'd be maybe one or two spots ahead of Lashoff in Detroit, and it's not like I think Lashoff merits a roster spot. He's a 7-8, Tanev's a 5-6.

I wouldn't play Tanev over any of Detroit's top 4 dmen last year, and I very likely wouldn't play him over Marchenko either. I would play him over Smith. That's about it.

Lashoff, Kindl... pretty much what Tanev brings to the table. That's the guy a team has to be playing 20+ a night to get into the top 5.

He's very comparable to Danny DeKeyser, and his contract will actually probably be used as the benchmark for DeKeyser's new contract.

 

[Ricelund]

It just said we about to trade aeay some youth, have a look back a page as someone posted the tweet.

Here are the tweets:

 

[chances14]

Here are the tweets:

khan retweeted this yesterday from a coyotes beat writer