Observations XXXI

[drwpreds]

A 3 goal lead with 10 minutes left in the 3rd period at that

Brutal for sure.

But it was a weird situation that I am not sure I have ever seen. A game that we led 4-1 with less than 10 minutes left turned into a game where I was in a way actually happy we even got 1 point. Giving them a 4 minute power play 2 seconds after giving up the tying goal, there was no doubt in my mind we were going to lose in regulation.

Who knows, maybe that point will wind up being big.

It is hard to believe that we only have 8 games left. Looking at the schedules, if we can get through this weekend and still be at least in the same position we are in right now, we still have a decent chance.

Dallas remaining schedule is pretty brutal- after their 2 games in Detroit this weekend:

Carolina
Carolina
at Tampa Bay
at Nashville
at Florida
at Tampa Bay
at Tampa Bay
at Chicago
at Chicago

No matter what, to have any chance we absolutely have to win the May 1 game against them- it is basically a 4 point game

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Brutal for sure.

But it was a weird situation that I am not sure I have ever seen. A game that we led 4-1 with less than 10 minutes left turned into a game where I was in a way actually happy we even got 1 point. Giving them a 4 minute power play 2 seconds after giving up the tying goal, there was no doubt in my mind we were going to lose in regulation.

Who knows, maybe that point will wind up being big.

It is hard to believe that we only have 8 games left. Looking at the schedules, if we can get through this weekend and still be at least in the same position we are in right now, we still have a decent chance.

Dallas remaining schedule is pretty brutal- after their 2 games in Detroit this weekend:

Carolina
Carolina
at Tampa Bay
at Nashville
at Florida
at Tampa Bay
at Tampa Bay
at Chicago
at Chicago

No matter what, to have any chance we absolutely have to win the May 1 game against them- it is basically a 4 point game

that Dallas game is big of course but it’s not a must win. if we beat Chicago, they are pretty much done. We still have 2 against columbus and that should be 4 points. SHOULD. they’ve just about mailed it in. if we lose against Dallas, we will have to probably get 3 of 4 points against Carolina in the final 2. Tough but do-able. If Carolina wasn’t fighting for the division and the chance at a much easier first round opponent, i would like our chances.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

we throw around must win games too much for my liking. we have the easier schedule. we should get the last spot.

 

[Armourboy]

we should get the last spot.

We should have won last night. Should and will are two different words for a reason.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

We should have won last night. Should and will are two different words for a reason.

i don’t think anyone on this board would disagree.

 

[drwpreds]

we throw around must win games too much for my liking. we have the easier schedule. we should get the last spot.

I do agree with this, even though I just used the phrase- lol

Its not a must win game unless you are eliminated with a loss. But I will put it this way- if we lose that Dallas game in regulation, our chances to make it in statistically drop dramatically- I do not think we make it if that happens.

 

[Pred303]

Really look forward to tomorrow's game. We are better than these Chicago and Dallas teams. Now we just have to prove it.

let me add how much i hate us being on national tv.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Benning was a special kind of horrible at the beginning of the game with Josi. I was happy to see the switch made in the first period. There was no way you could keep him on the ice for that many minutes with Josi.

Josi was the problem, though. He is the one who gave away that 1st goal, nothing to do with Benning or the pairing. He was simply trying to do too much by himself again. You don't fix that by putting a different bottom-pairing-caliber partner with him. You have to figure out how to get him (and Ellis too) to play smarter.

 

[GoldOnGold]

Really look forward to tomorrow's game. We are better than these Chicago and Dallas teams. Now we just have to prove it.

let me add how much i hate us being on national tv.

I could not watch much last night but NBC was just so nakedly happy when the Hawks scored in the 3rd. I wish a national network could actually be impartial.

 

[MrJoshua]

I could not watch much last night but NBC was just so nakedly happy when the Hawks scored in the 3rd. I wish a national network could actually be impartial.

Don't they literally just use the Chicago broadcast team?

 

[Paranoid Android]

I think the decision to switch Benning had more to do with Gudbranson and Harpur. Their last shift together was at the end of the first period and was dreadful:

119	1	EV	19:03 0:57	HIT	CHI #64 KAMPF HIT NSH #44 GUDBRANSON, Neu. Zone	10 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 13 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 84 L [TBODY] [/TBODY] 17 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 44 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 74 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]	64 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 12 R [TBODY] [/TBODY] 88 R [TBODY] [/TBODY] 5 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 48 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 30 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]
120	1	EV	19:16 0:44	GIVE	NSH GIVEAWAY - #17 HARPUR, Def. Zone	11 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 19 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 64 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 17 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 44 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 74 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]	22 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 23 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 24 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 2 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 27 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 30 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]
121	1	EV	19:19 0:41	MISS	CHI #22 CARPENTER, Wrist, Wide of Net, Off. Zone, 33 ft.	11 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 19 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 64 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 17 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 44 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 74 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]	22 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 23 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 24 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 2 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 27 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 30 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]
122	1	EV	19:30 0:30	SHOT	CHI ONGOAL - #2 KEITH, Slap, Off. Zone, 54 ft.	11 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 19 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 64 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 17 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 44 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 74 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]	22 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 23 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 24 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 2 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 27 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 30 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]
123	1		19:45 0:15	STOP	ICING	11 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 19 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 64 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 17 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 44 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 74 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]	22 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 23 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 24 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 2 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 27 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 30 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]
124	1	EV	19:45 0:15	FAC	NSH won Def. Zone - NSH #64 GRANLUND vs CHI #77 DACH	11 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 19 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 64 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 17 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 44 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 74 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]	77 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 8 L [TBODY] [/TBODY] 38 L [TBODY] [/TBODY] 2 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 27 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 30 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]
125	1	EV	19:55 0:05	GIVE	NSH GIVEAWAY - #44 GUDBRANSON, Def. Zone	11 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 19 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 64 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 17 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 44 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 74 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]	77 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 8 L [TBODY] [/TBODY] 38 L [TBODY] [/TBODY] 2 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 27 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 30 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]
126	1	EV	19:57 0:03	SHOT	CHI ONGOAL - #8 KUBALIK, Snap, Off. Zone, 27 ft.	11 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 19 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 64 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 17 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 44 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 74 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]	77 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 8 L [TBODY] [/TBODY] 38 L [TBODY] [/TBODY] 2 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 27 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 30 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]
127	1		19:57 0:03	STOP	GOALIE STOPPED (AFTER SOG)	11 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 19 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 64 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 17 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 44 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 74 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]	77 C [TBODY] [/TBODY] 8 L [TBODY] [/TBODY] 38 L [TBODY] [/TBODY] 2 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 27 D [TBODY] [/TBODY] 30 G [TBODY] [/TBODY] [TBODY] [/TBODY]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3 SAT against, 2 giveaways and an icing. That was the last time they took a shift together. Add in that Josi-Benning were looking shaky convinced them to make the switch at the start of the 2nd.

I kind of like Gudbranson with Josi. He's been better than advertised and a low risk taker. Could complement Josi nicely. Plus Benning brings some speed and puck moving ability to the bottom pairing. I'd like to see them stick with these pairings next game.

We really need Fabbro back...

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Josi was the problem, though. He is the one who gave away that 1st goal, nothing to do with Benning or the pairing. He was simply trying to do too much by himself again. You don't fix that by putting a different bottom-pairing-caliber partner with him. You have to figure out how to get him (and Ellis too) to play smarter.

I agree but my issues with Benning had nothing to do with the 2 v 1 goal, although he did play the situation horribly that one goes to Josi.
He was a wreck positionally and indecisive with the puck.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

It's amazing that no matter how long you've been a passionate sports fan, the gut-punch of blowing a big lead in a big game never gets easier to take. It's almost like you were dreaming it happened so fast. It's been a while since we've blow a lead like this in such an important game. I remember feeling the same way at the Winter Classic, and that was only 2 goals and much earlier.

However, they showed real moxie by killing off the 4 minute penalty and getting to OT. Although 2 points was necessary, 1 point was still important.

I had a uneasy feeling that the odds of beating the Hawks 7 times in a row were against us. We are not that much better than them.

Caught Hynes on 102.5 this morning. He was impressive. Upbeat, thoughtful, and driven to use this loss as an opportunity. I know all coaches BS in interviews, but I woulda been bitchin' and moanin' Torts-Style. Friday night should be epic.

We're all Red Wing fans tonight and Saturday. Wings are a good home team. We have the natural odds going for us. Difficult to sweep a team 4 straight.

 

[Legionnaire11]

I do find that Hynes is a little more open and honest than most coaches that you see interviewed. Especially compared to Lavy.

 

[glenngineer]

You all realize Hynes has been swapping Grudbranson and Benning over the last few games right? Grud starts with Harpur, then switches to Josi at some point in the first. Then he's usually back to Harpur in the second for a few shifts, then back to Josi.

On a different note, I've completely soured on Ellis. He is too methodical out there. This team plays better when we're pushing the tempo and I feel he likes to hold the puck, see what's out there and then start moving. Problem with that is the other team gets a chance to set up. While I'd rather not have inexperienced or big lumbering guys on the ice, I'd rather have them then him out there. He made some horrible plays with the puck last night that were inexcusable for a guy with his hockey IQ as the analysts love to call it. Josi had a terrible one on their first goal but Josi does so much good out there and while it was a mistake, it rarely happens. Ellis, not so sure about any longer.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

You all realize Hynes has been swapping Grudbranson and Benning over the last few games right? Grud starts with Harpur, then switches to Josi at some point in the first. Then he's usually back to Harpur in the second for a few shifts, then back to Josi.

On a different note, I've completely soured on Ellis. He is too methodical out there. This team plays better when we're pushing the tempo and I feel he likes to hold the puck, see what's out there and then start moving. Problem with that is the other team gets a chance to set up. While I'd rather not have inexperienced or big lumbering guys on the ice, I'd rather have them then him out there. He made some horrible plays with the puck last night that were inexcusable for a guy with his hockey IQ as the analysts love to call it. Josi had a terrible one on their first goal but Josi does so much good out there and while it was a mistake, it rarely happens. Ellis, not so sure about any longer.

ive been sour on Ellis for a good while. I called out signing him to a long term deal. he will be the next turris in the next 18 months. If not the next turris, the poster child for whipping boy.

i think we just have to hope for the best w/ our 2 centers. i still think we could get value for Ellis. Would absolutely love if we dealt him in the summer.

honestly not thrilled whatsoever. his play last year was his best stretch of his career and it was for half a season. we signed him till he is 36 years old and he will slow down at some point. the cap hit isn't horrible but my no means do i feel he gave us a bargain. i am glad he did not receive a NTC.

all in all, an okay deal to me. not bad but i do not think poile is a magician by any means on this one. he got term and money.

i think poile is smart enough to see what we all see. ekholm is more valuable and Ellis still has value.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Brutal for sure.

But it was a weird situation that I am not sure I have ever seen. A game that we led 4-1 with less than 10 minutes left turned into a game where I was in a way actually happy we even got 1 point. Giving them a 4 minute power play 2 seconds after giving up the tying goal, there was no doubt in my mind we were going to lose in regulation.

Who knows, maybe that point will wind up being big.

It is hard to believe that we only have 8 games left. Looking at the schedules, if we can get through this weekend and still be at least in the same position we are in right now, we still have a decent chance.

Dallas remaining schedule is pretty brutal- after their 2 games in Detroit this weekend:

Carolina
Carolina
at Tampa Bay
at Nashville
at Florida
at Tampa Bay
at Tampa Bay
at Chicago
at Chicago

No matter what, to have any chance we absolutely have to win the May 1 game against them- it is basically a 4 point game

Red Wings 5 - Stars 2 ...8 minutes left in the 3rd.

no such thing as a must win game and that score right there shows why.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

You all realize Hynes has been swapping Grudbranson and Benning over the last few games right? Grud starts with Harpur, then switches to Josi at some point in the first. Then he's usually back to Harpur in the second for a few shifts, then back to Josi.

On a different note, I've completely soured on Ellis. He is too methodical out there. This team plays better when we're pushing the tempo and I feel he likes to hold the puck, see what's out there and then start moving. Problem with that is the other team gets a chance to set up. While I'd rather not have inexperienced or big lumbering guys on the ice, I'd rather have them then him out there. He made some horrible plays with the puck last night that were inexcusable for a guy with his hockey IQ as the analysts love to call it. Josi had a terrible one on their first goal but Josi does so much good out there and while it was a mistake, it rarely happens. Ellis, not so sure about any longer.

I previous games I only noticed different pairings after special teams play.
Last night was a permanent shift that happened in the first period and Benning wasn't paired with Josi the rest of the game.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Red Wings 5 - Stars 2 ...8 minutes left in the 3rd.

no such thing as a must win game and that score right there shows why.

Just gotta keep winning and the points will work themselves out.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Just gotta keep winning and the points will work themselves out.

Exactly. I’ll never assume anything with sports but I like our chances. I feel good with where we are at. If we make it into the playoffs, it will be a fun ride. Might also be nice to be in the playoffs and not be the favorites and high expectations.

 

[drwpreds]

Red Wings 5 - Stars 2 ...8 minutes left in the 3rd.

no such thing as a must win game and that score right there shows why.

7-3 final. Thank you very much Wings!

But this result doesn't change at all the importance of that May 1 game. We still badly need to win it and win it in regulation.

If we can win tomorrow night we are in pretty darn good shape even if Dallas beats Detroit Saturday. Going into this 2 game series I just wanted the Wings to win 1 of them, and they already have that in the bank.

Bottom line if that happens- Preds will have taken 5 of 6 points from Chicago this week and Dallas gets 6 of 8 from Detroit. That is a win for the Preds. As mentioned earlier the Stars schedule after the Detroit series is BRUTAL.

So needless to say- tomorrow night is a HUGE game.

 

[adsfan]

According to my math, Nashville can max out at 68 points. Dallas at 70 points and Chicago at 67 points.

Nashville has to beat Chicago and Dallas in the head-to-head games, especially in regulation. That subtracts 2 points from the other team's maximum point total and the Preds are behind Dallas by 2 points at the moment by my way of thinking.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

They all can't get to those point levels because the teams all play each other.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Statistically, the Preds and Stars are even. Preds need to win May 1st and win one more game than Chicago and Dallas.

 

[adsfan]

They all can't get to those point levels because the teams all play each other.

You are correct. We want the Preds to win out or be close to it. The head-to-head games count like 4 point games. That is why I mentioned the subtraction (from the theoretical maximums) of 2 points for a regulation win. If the Preds beat Dallas in regulation, Dallas goes from 70 to 68 points maximum, even if they win all of the rest of their games.