Observations XXVIII

[101st_fan]

I would love to see our players capitalizing on more of their chances. It's frustrating seeing proven scorers struggle. However, what matters in a team sport is how the team does in any particular match and then how that puts them in relation to other teams for playoff positioning over the full 82 game season. Goals are down ... win % and points % for the team are up which has the team in playoff contention. It's a tradeoff I can live with.

 

[drwpreds]

We are actually giving up more shots and at a higher quality since Hynes. We are getting better quality at a lower volume. Both of these changes are very minimal. The significant change is absolutely Saros. The goaltending we had from both wasn't even NHL starter level through most of the year, and now it's top 5 from Saros since the new year.

What I keep going back to in my head- what if Saros had played this way all season??

What would our record be??? Even with all the other issues, pretty sure we would be at least in contention for the division title- maybe mid 80’s point wise

 

[drwpreds]

Here is another note on our offense and the results:

Under Hynes: (27 games)

17 games scoring 2 or fewer goals- record is 6-11
10 games scoring 3 or more goals- record is 9-1

Having said that, of course it will always be the case in today’s NHL that every team is going to have a much better record when scoring 3 or more goals. 3 seems to be the magic number today- if you score 3 goals, your chance of winning any given game goes up dramatically.

So it is not surprising that our record is so bad when scoring 2 or less and so good when scoring 3 or more.

The problem is we have way too may 2 or fewer games. 17 out of 27.

Just for research sake, I decided to check another team that has a similar offense to the Preds and see how they compared- the Blues overall have almost the same goals per game average that we do.

In their last 27 games, they have 10 games where they scored 2 or fewer.

So compared to the Preds that is a 7 game difference (10 vs 17) And since you win most of the games you scored 3, those 7 games probably translate into at least 4 or 5 more wins we would have if we had 10 instead of 17.

Give us 4 more wins and we would have 84 points and be a playoff lock.

We just need a few less of those 0, 1 and 2 goal games-

 

[OldFan]

Lots of stats are being batted around and I do like looking them over.
But I watch the games. The team is playing at a level far exceeding the level in prior months. You can see it if you’ve watched this season from the beginning. That is the “eye stat”.
Part of it is surely the annual playoff push of teams not yet in. Part of it is embarrassment of their prior efforts. Part of it is the new coaching approach. Part of it is a realization of Pekka’s diminishing abilities. But whatever the reason is, it’s fun again.
But it still may be too late because there are a lot of other teams in exactly the same fight.
Enjoy it while you can.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Comparing the goals scored versus results for Lavi and Hynes is pretty interesting as well:

Goals Scored	Lavi Record	Hynes Record
0-2	0-8-3 (27% of games)	6-10-1 (63% of games)
3-4	10-7-3 (49% of games)	5-1-0 (22% of games)
5+	9-0-1 (24% of games)	4-0-0 (15% of games)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So under Hynes while we're scoring less we're doing a lot better in those lower scoring games, and in games where we do get 3+ goals it's almost a guaranteed win versus with Lavi where we needed 5+ for it to get into that safer territory.

The other big thing is that our ability to win 1 goal games has improved big time under Hynes, which I give him a lot of credit for stopping the defeatist attitude you would often see in our players. We've gone 12-2-1 in 1 goal games under Hynes versus 5-3-7 in 1 goal games with Lavi.

 

[drwpreds]

Comparing the goals scored versus results for Lavi and Hynes is pretty interesting as well:

Goals Scored	Lavi Record	Hynes Record
0-2	0-8-3 (27% of games)	6-10-1 (63% of games)
3-4	10-7-3 (49% of games)	5-1-0 (22% of games)
5+	9-0-1 (24% of games)	4-0-0 (15% of games)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So under Hynes while we're scoring less we're doing a lot better in those lower scoring games, and in games where we do get 3+ goals it's almost a guaranteed win versus with Lavi where we needed 5+ for it to get into that safer territory.

The other big thing is that our ability to win 1 goal games has improved big time under Hynes, which I give him a lot of credit for stopping the defeatist attitude you would often see in our players. We've gone 12-2-1 in 1 goal games under Hynes versus 5-3-7 in 1 goal games with Lavi.

Those are some good stats, good stuff.

But- I still say the biggest reason for the improved record when scoring 0-2 goals goes right back to one thing- goaltending. I could be totally wrong here but I'm honestly not sure Hynes has much to do with it at all. I'm not sure it mattered who the coach was.

Again, had Saros been playing all season the way he is now, I guarantee you we would not have a 0-8-3 record in those games and Laviolette is probably still here.

Some of these low scoring, 1-0 and 2-1 wins we've been getting lately would have probably been 3-1 or 4-2 losses with the level of goaltending we were getting in Oct-Dec.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Perhaps some bit of credit for the points boost we got out of that little surge heading into the trade deadline, when Saros was better but still not as molten hot like now, was thanks to Granlund's scoring? I'm just spitballing that, I haven't looked it up. But even if his better-than-usual (or better-than-anybody-else-on-this-team) scoring spree got us a few extra points, that's the difference between a little surge and flatlining anyway. And maybe that's a piece of credit that can be partially directed Hynes' way? Well at least he gave Granlund a bigger role. One can argue it came at the expense of others up front, of course. And that Granlund himself deserves the lion's share of the credit.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I assume by quality you're referring to expected goals? While that may be true that the numbers are more or less the same it seems to my eye that we're doing a much better job of pressuring opposing players while they shoot as well as making sure that the shots are unscreened. Neither of those changes factor into those expected goal models, but I'd argue are just as significant factors as the things that do get factored into the models.

I thought quality is primarily measured by location? Also a big factor in expected goals so I think you are correct. Also won't dispute you on the other differences. I was more or less agreeing that the biggest difference, and it's not close in my mind, is how Saros has played.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I think it's pretty inarguable that Saros playing better is the biggest cause of our improvement, but I guess I'm just willing to give more credit to our defensive structure than solely to Saros just turning it on all of a sudden. I'm not a goalie so I don't have any insight into how their minds work, but Mason does talk a lot about how as a goalie when you can put more trust in your defense to clean up rebounds and let you see pucks the game becomes a lot easier. That seems to be a focus for us defensively now, which I think has been a big contributor to Saros's resurgence.

The other somewhat related aspect that I've noticed but have no way of knowing if it's true or not is that under the new regime it seems we're getting a lot of fewer of goals scored on us off of "unlucky" bounces. Some people may just chalk that up to puck luck, but to me it seems like we're controlling the netfront a lot better than we did early in the season which is reducing those types of goals.

 

[PredsV82]

And just like that we are WC1, and assuming the Rags dont blow a 4-0 lead, we will only be 4 points out of C3.

I wish I enjoyed roller coasters....

 

[BigFatCat999]

I wish I enjoyed roller coasters....

Ditto. I'd rather this team was WC2 to play St. Louis

 

[wadesworld]

I think it's pretty inarguable that Saros playing better is the biggest cause of our improvement, but I guess I'm just willing to give more credit to our defensive structure than solely to Saros just turning it on all of a sudden. I'm not a goalie so I don't have any insight into how their minds work, but Mason does talk a lot about how as a goalie when you can put more trust in your defense to clean up rebounds and let you see pucks the game becomes a lot easier. That seems to be a focus for us defensively now, which I think has been a big contributor to Saros's resurgence.

The other somewhat related aspect that I've noticed but have no way of knowing if it's true or not is that under the new regime it seems we're getting a lot of fewer of goals scored on us off of "unlucky" bounces. Some people may just chalk that up to puck luck, but to me it seems like we're controlling the netfront a lot better than we did early in the season which is reducing those types of goals.

For a goalie, the worst thing is defensive inconsistency, also known as chaos. If he can't predict the defensive play with some reasonable degree of regularity, you get "bad puck luck." Screens, rebounds, tips, deflections off your own players happen as they scramble to catch up.

When the defense does what it is supposed to do and maintains good gaps, keeps the man on their outside shoulder, doesn't allow anyone deeper than them unless below the goal line, holds their posts, doesn't chase behind the net, center covers the slot, chips the puck out of the high danger areas, makes solid breakout passes - in short, plays a well-structured game, it becomes a thousand times easier for the goalie. He knows where the puck must go, and the read becomes easy and he can anticipate better. Saves become more routine and confidence skyrockets. Not much short of the result of an elite shot, pass, or deflection goes in.

 

[Armourboy]

Interesting the game of hockey is. Spent so much time talking about offense and then go out and score 4.

 

[Roman Yoshi]

I think it's pretty inarguable that Saros playing better is the biggest cause of our improvement, but I guess I'm just willing to give more credit to our defensive structure than solely to Saros just turning it on all of a sudden. I'm not a goalie so I don't have any insight into how their minds work, but Mason does talk a lot about how as a goalie when you can put more trust in your defense to clean up rebounds and let you see pucks the game becomes a lot easier. That seems to be a focus for us defensively now, which I think has been a big contributor to Saros's resurgence.

The other somewhat related aspect that I've noticed but have no way of knowing if it's true or not is that under the new regime it seems we're getting a lot of fewer of goals scored on us off of "unlucky" bounces. Some people may just chalk that up to puck luck, but to me it seems like we're controlling the netfront a lot better than we did early in the season which is reducing those types of goals.

From every goalie I have ever talked to, they always say there is a zone that you get into. I'd argue that Saros is more in the zone than we are playing better defensively.

 

[Kat Predator]

From every goalie I have ever talked to, they always say there is a zone that you get into. I'd argue that Saros is more in the zone than we are playing better defensively.

The overall argument is a bit of "which is more important to a plant: water or sunlight?"

No question Saros is playing a ton better. And the defensive structure is much better overall too. These things are interwoven. In short, the defensive structure forces the offensive play to certain areas, lets Saros read the play, see the puck, and make all those saves.

Juuse actually making the saves, especially when things break down, is on him and he's been much better and playing lights out lately. Neither of the Canadiens goals were on him, and both barely beat him. A perfect fluke carom and the defense getting caught napping together with a perfectly threaded pass.

Speaking of the Canadiens game, the third period wasn't anything to write home about for us. It felt like the Canadiens pushed back hard and the ice flipped for them. Still, despite all the defensive pressure the Preds were under, they stuck with it and rode out the storm, which was a far cry from other games when they'd just pack it in and fall apart.

PS: They weren't perfect, but I really liked some of the stuff I saw from the Tinordi/Holzer pairing. They play in good support position to one another and toss forwards out of the low slot like angry gorilla bouncers dealing with lowlifes at an uptown club.

 

[Montross]

And just like that we are WC1, and assuming the Rags dont blow a 4-0 lead, we will only be 4 points out of C3.

I wish I enjoyed roller coasters....

Crazy but true. Is the team finally coming together with some consistency? Or is the coaster cresting its biggest incline getting ready to plummet straight down? I have no idea where this ride's gonna end up this season.

 

[101st_fan]

Those are some good stats, good stuff.

But- I still say the biggest reason for the improved record when scoring 0-2 goals goes right back to one thing- goaltending. I could be totally wrong here but I'm honestly not sure Hynes has much to do with it at all. I'm not sure it mattered who the coach was.

Again, had Saros been playing all season the way he is now, I guarantee you we would not have a 0-8-3 record in those games and Laviolette is probably still here.

Some of these low scoring, 1-0 and 2-1 wins we've been getting lately would have probably been 3-1 or 4-2 losses with the level of goaltending we were getting in Oct-Dec.

October saw Pekka with a .920 sv%, 7-0-2 in nine starts ... November had Juuse posting a .918 sv% and holding the opposition at 2 or fewer goals allowed in five of his seven starts, getting no support and going 2-2-1 in those five games. The broad brush complaint about a level of goaltending in Oct - Dec ignores what each goalie managed to do well during that time while portraying it as though it was 90 days that looked like Juuse's first three starts or Pekka's November. The one month where both goalies posted poor numbers was December ... 6-4-2 while both goalies were below .880 sv% in their starts.

During the first 41 games the Preds needed to score a lot of goals and get a 2, preferably 3 or more, goal lead to win. They were under 50% in one and two goal differential games (won 33.33% of one goal games, 42.9% of two goal games). Since the change this team manages to not only win games when scoring 2 or fewer goals, they are winning the tight games that they didn't do before the coaching shift (80% of one goal games, 40% of two goal).

It may not be pretty. It may not result in great individual stats. It is getting results in the standings.

 

[Jonesey]

COVID talk that doesn't directly relate to the NHL has been moved to the off-topic thread. I think it's a good enough discussion topic to have, and I'm not opposed to someone creating a thread just for it if they desire.

 

[Pred303]

we sure keep things interesting.

 

[Pred303]

and now we may never know how it would all have turned out.

 

[drwpreds]

I can't even wrap my head around the fact the hockey season may be over. It is just so surreal.

I have seen some speculation that the best case scenario would be the rest of the season is cancelled and then the playoffs would start sometime close to the regular schedule. (April 8)

But of course, there is no way of knowing what will happen. Almost feels hard to believe that would actually happen,

But if it does, we are in good shape assuming they go by points percentage- we would be WC1 and play Vegas in Round 1.

I don't know about you guys, but for me having no sports whatsoever is going to be so depressing. We normally look to sports in difficult times as a needed diversion, but with this we don't even have that.

The NHL playoffs and March Madness are probably my 2 favorite things in all of sports and both of them are likely not happening

Incredibly depressing...

 

[FossilFndr]

I don't know about you guys, but for me having no sports whatsoever is going to be so depressing. We normally look to sports in difficult times as a needed diversion, but with this we don't even have that.

I commented on this in another thread. Could be a strain on mental health.

 

[bdub24]

I’m guessing they’ll abbreviate the playoffs? Maybe best of three or five?

 

[Armourboy]

I’m guessing they’ll abbreviate the playoffs? Maybe best of three or five?

I'll be honest I'd live with the assumption that the season is done and if we see any hockey at all it's just a bonus.

I doubt they even have an idea as to how it would be handled. I'm guessing they will have an absolute last day for the Cup and would compress everything to fit in that time frame. That could mean anything from a shorter series to playing back to backs.