Observations XXV

[Predsanddead24]

Is that overall shooting percentage or power play shooting percentage? From what I see it looks like our shooting percentage overall was tied for 21st in the league. If its the powerplay only that's not particularly surprising to me since we took tons of low percentage shots on the powerplay.

Edit: Found the article but man that thing is a mess. He quotes our shooting percentage as both 8.8% and 8.3% at various points in the article (it was actually 8.8%). I'm not sure where he's pulling the it being 2nd worst in the league over the last 12 years thing though as it wasn't even our 2nd worst for the Predators over the last 12 years let alone the league. He also says Jarnkrok was one of Turris's most common linemates but not Craig Smith, which I'm not sure where he got that from.

 

[Armourboy]

The thing to figure out from that stat though is was our PP bad because our shooting % was so low, or was our % that low because of a poorly run PP.

It's the bad thing about just using raw stats.

 

[Predsanddead24]

The thing to figure out from that stat though is was our PP bad because our shooting % was so low, or was our % that low because of a poorly run PP.

It's the bad thing about just using raw stats.

Yeah the expecting shooting percentages and PDO to revert to a league average mean is something that really grinds my gears that analytics people always seem to spout. I understand the point that an individual players shooting percentage will revert to the mean over a long sample size but it doesn't make any sense to apply that logic to entire teams.

 

[PredsHead]

The thing to figure out from that stat though is was our PP bad because our shooting % was so low, or was our % that low because of a poorly run PP.

It's the bad thing about just using raw stats.

I think one bred the other, the PP was poorly ran so we were taking bad shots which made our shooting percentage bad as well. Then once we did start getting some good looks everyone was trying too hard to make a perfect play and would miss even the easy shots.

 

[Gh24]

This is the kind of thing the analytics people use to explain unexpected performance. I remember a few years ago someone had an unusually high shooting percentage and sure enough their numbers came down.

William Karlsson in 17-18 - 43 goals - 23.4 s%

 

[GoldOnGold]

Copying this bit someone else posted from the Athletic:

According to 10 years worth of results provided by the NHLPA, 27 players have gone to an arbitration hearing since 2009. Within three years, 21 of those players were on different teams. And often it doesn’t even take that long — 16 of the 27 were on new teams within two years and 13 of the 27 were on new teams within one year.

Very interesting story on The Athletic today by Custance on the long-term affects of going through with arbitration.


Of the 27 players who had salaries determined by arbitration, exactly *four* remain with the teams that they took to arbitration: Craig Smith, 2015, NSH; Braden Holtby, 2015, WSH; Nate Schmidt, 2017, VGK; Viktor Arvidsson, 2017, NSH.

A whopping *16* of the 27 were traded, which is amazing when you consider how few trades there are in the NHL these days. Only two were "team walks away" situations: Zherdev, 2009, NYR; and Niemi, 2010, CHI, so most of these guys were actively shopped almost immediately.

 

[PredsV82]

Copying this bit someone else posted from the Athletic:

According to 10 years worth of results provided by the NHLPA, 27 players have gone to an arbitration hearing since 2009. Within three years, 21 of those players were on different teams. And often it doesn’t even take that long — 16 of the 27 were on new teams within two years and 13 of the 27 were on new teams within one year.

And two of the 4 still with their teams are Preds... sounds like Poile manages to not piss off players too badly with arbitration

 

[INDhockeyfan]

Shea Weber went to arbitration and signed an offer sheet the next year but he stayed with the team over 3 yrs so he is one of 6 who did. Of course, he was traded later.

Didn't we sign Smith and Arvy to long term contracts after the hearing but before the decision was made? You have to have 1 or 2 yr contracts on an arbitration deal and they signed 5 and 7 yr deals.

 

[PredsV82]

Weber's arbitration was team requested.

And yes Arvy for sure signed his deal after an arbitration hearing and what a great deal that was for the Preds...

 

[triggrman]

She’s Weber did get pissed about the arbitration . He said it was one of the things that led him to signing the offersheet

 

[PredsV82]

She’s Weber did get pissed about the arbitration . He said it was one of the things that led him to signing the offersheet

I have always believed that Weber intended to use the offer sheet process to ensure that he got the most money possible. If the team had been in good enough financial shape to meet Webers contract demands in the summer of 2011 it would have let him seek that offer sheet and matched it then. But they didnt have the money st that time and forced Shea to take a 1 year arbitration to keep him an RFA while they continued to get their finances in better shape. It undoubtedly pissed him off but he was looking for an offer sheet regardless.

 

[Legionnaire11]

The impending lockout didn't help the Weber situation, similar to this summer and next where every free agent is looking for bonus heavy deals. Which is another reason that punishing teams for signing legal front-loaded deals is absurd since the same thing happens today under a different name.

 

[Predsanddead24]

On a side note I'm enjoying this Michael Buble/Matt Duchene beef.

 

[GoldOnGold]

From reddit - picture from Josi's wedding:

From left to right: Watson, Spaling, Shea Weber, Jones, Sissons, Fiala, Subban, Bitetto, Josi, Arvidsson, Jarnkrok, Fisher, Nystrom, Neal, Forsberg, and Yannick Weber.

 

[Preds Partisan]

I thought nobody liked Subban and Fiala? Hmmmm.

 

[Legionnaire11]

That photo is an obvious fake. Shea Weber hates the Nashville franchise and will retire 1 year early to get his revenge.

 

[predhead1]

Nealer with an aggressive fashion choice.

 

[PredsV82]

Nealer with an aggressive fashion choice.

Hes now an Oiler... gotta get in that golf practice...

 

[PredsV82]

From reddit - picture from Josi's wedding:

View attachment 246311

From left to right: Watson, Spaling, Shea Weber, Jones, Sissons, Fiala, Subban, Bitetto, Josi, Arvidsson, Jarnkrok, Fisher, Nystrom, Neal, Forsberg, and Yannick Weber.

Hmm... Jones is there but not Johansen... wonder if they are like quantum particles...

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Nealer with an aggressive fashion choice.

Pretty much bailing Subban out on that one.

 

[GoldOnGold]

I was surprised Spaling was there, but he was on the team with Josi from 2011 to 2014.

 

[sparkle twin]

That's such a great picture!

But, what's with the hideous shoes, Neal?

 

[PredsV82]

I was surprised Spaling was there, but he was on the team with Josi from 2011 to 2014.

They must be pretty tight since Spals hasnt played in the NHL since '16. He played in Switzerland a couple of years so maybe they kept in touch over there...

 

[predhead1]

Pretty much bailing Subban out on that one.

I thought Subban's questionable fashion choices went without saying?

 

[Armourboy]

I was surprised Spaling was there, but he was on the team with Josi from 2011 to 2014.

Frankly of all of them Nystrom and Spaling surprise me the most.