Prospect Info: NYR Prospect Poll: #11

[Beacon]

Brandon Halverson easily won this round with 75% of the vote. Conor Allen is added to the poll.

Please write who you want added to the poll, and give a reason for it. This makes the discussion here more lively.


THE RULES

WHO IS A PROSPECT: http://www.hockeysfuture.com/whatmakesaprospect

HOW TO RANK PROSPECTS: Based on their value in a hypothetical trade or waiver draft. This takes into consideration a prospect's ceiling, how close he's to making it, his health, work ethic, the whole deal. Imagine there was a prospect waiver draft and you could keep only one prospect. That guy is our #1 prospect. Then imagine we had one more waiver protection. That guy is our #2 prospect.


TOP PROSPECTS

1. LW/RW Anthony Duclair
2. C Kevin Hayes
3. LW/RW Pavel Buchnevich
4. D Brady Skjei
5. RW Jesper Fast


SECOND TIER

6. C Oscar Lindberg
7. D Dylan McIlrath
8. G Igor Shesterkin
9. D Ryan Graves
10. G Brandon Halverson


Brandon Halverson
Goalie -- shoots R
Born Mar 29 1996 -- Traverse City, MI
Height 6.04 -- Weight 179

2014-15 Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds OHL 31GP 2.89 23-3-2 0.909

PROSPECTS ELIGIBLE TO BE ADDED

Andersoon, Calle
Bodie, Matt
Bourque, Ryan
Donnay, Troy
Fogarty, Steven
Hughes, Tommy
Iverson, Keegan
Kantor, Michael
Kristo, Dany
Mantha, Ryan
McCarthy, Chris
Missiaen, Jason
Nanne, Tyler
Nicholls, Josh
Noreau, Samuel
Nejezchleb, Richard
St. Croix, Michael
Walcott, Daniel
Zamorsky, Petr

Click to read more...

 

[Raspewtin]

Tambo, add Walcott

 

[kovazub94]

Skapski is a good goalie. better chances to be an NHLer then the rest. Add Fogs.

 

[Beacon]

Voted for Skapski. It's rare for a 20 year old to prove himself to be a good AHL starting goalie, which is what Skapper has done. Prior to the start of the season, the Rangers expected him to play in the ECHL or at most to be a backup in the AHL. Instead, he grabbed the ball and ran with it.

Desjardins is supposed to be a great AHL goalie, but Skapski has better stats (2.42 with .912% vs 2.63 with .910%) and he's played significantly more games. Hartford's blue line is not particularly good, so these numbers are impressive. Having watched him for most of these games, he's a quality goalie who does not look like a rookie with no prior pro experience.

Goalies take the longest to develop, so expectations are lowest for them at the age of 20. What Skapski has done is something more people should be excited about.

Add Mantha. Just got drafted in the 4th round, half a round ahead of Shesterkin and he's done nothing wrong to prove he didn't deserve it. Seems to have transitioned well from the USHL to the Canadian Juniors. Could turn into a decent big defenseman.

 

[Machinehead]

Going with Tambellini. 52 points and 29 goals in 45 games for Calgary in the W this year.

I've heard there's qualms about his all-around game so you hope he doesn't go the way of St. Croix, but he's much bigger than St. Croix so he has that going for him. There's still plenty of time and the kid's got a nice canvas to paint on.

Plus, he comes from a hockey family, which I really like. I think it's an underrated advantage having that professional presence around your whole life.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Skapper

 

[Beacon]

I would hate it if Tambo won a round ahead of Hrivik or Nieves. Hrivik is already ready for NHL duty, while Tambellini is hoping to some day become a bottom-6 player with the odds strongly against him. A guy with top-6 potential scores a ton more than Tambo at the age of 20 in the Juniors. Nieves, meanwhile, is bigger, faster, better defensively and has a far better on-ice vision. Haggerty should also be ahead because he has real top-6 potential if he figures out what to do without the puck.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I would hate it if Tambo won a round ahead of Hrivik or Nieves. Hrivik is already ready for NHL duty, while Tambellini is hoping to some day become a bottom-6 player with the odds strongly against him. A guy with top-6 potential scores a ton more than Tambo at the age of 20 in the Juniors. Nieves, meanwhile, is bigger, faster, better defensively and has a far better on-ice vision. Haggerty should also be ahead because he has real top-6 potential if he figures out what to do without the puck.

I'd take Tambo over Hrivik and Nieves without thinking twice.

And, again. Tambo is top 20 in scoring. Top 15, actually.

 

[Machinehead]

Nieves I could agree with because his all-around game is better. Hrivik and Haggerty are much older and doing absolutely nothing in the AHL.

And in Hrivik's case, I hate to bring up age because everyone loves a late bloomer, everyone loves a Cam Talbot, but for the most part, if you can't handle the A at 23, you're probably not amounting to much. To put it in perspective, Chris Kreider is 23. He's been around forever.

 

[Machinehead]

Walcott has seen a big jump in production this year, perhaps he's an add.

 

[Beacon]

I'd take Tambo over Hrivik and Nieves without thinking twice.

And, again. Tambo is top 20 in scoring. Top 15, actually.

That is NOT good for an offensive player in the juniors at his age. Go track guys who had these stats 5 or 10 years ago and see how they wound up. Those who are defense-first or were just 18 years old when they put up these numbers were (sometimes) able to create careers in the NHL. Guys who play Tambo's style and were the age he is now wound up in the ECHL far, far more often than in the NHL.

This board always goes wild for anyone putting up over a point per game, but that is actually a low number in the Juniors.

Last I looked, over 50 players in the Juniors were outscoring Tambellini, despite him being older than almost all of them. Do you really think that the juniors will produce that many NHL forwards just from the guys there right now? Of course not.

There are 360 NHL forwards (12 times 30 teams). About a third took the college route. About 25% are from Europe. That leaves under 45% who went the junior route or about 160 players. The average player spends 5.5 years in the NHL. This means that in an average year, there are about 29 forwards who ever played in the Juniors who join the NHL (about 1 guy per team). This includes all the scrub 4th liners.

So the odds that someone who's among the oldest players in the juniors who's not even in the top-50 making the NHL, unless he's a defensive star, are simply not good.


I am willing to listen to people who watch Tambo regularly and think he might make it based on factors other than his stats. But anyone basing their assessment of him on his stats is making a mistake by thinking that scoring over a point per game in the juniors is an achievement.

 

[Raspewtin]

I would hate it if Tambo won a round ahead of Hrivik or Nieves. Hrivik is already ready for NHL duty, while Tambellini is hoping to some day become a bottom-6 player with the odds strongly against him. A guy with top-6 potential scores a ton more than Tambo at the age of 20 in the Juniors. Nieves, meanwhile, is bigger, faster, better defensively and has a far better on-ice vision. Haggerty should also be ahead because he has real top-6 potential if he figures out what to do without the puck.

Thankfully most of us can see past your ridiculous "he should score this much to be a good prospect" barometer.

 

[Beacon]

in Hrivik's case... for the most part, if you can't handle the A at 23, you're probably not amounting to much. To put it in perspective, Chris Kreider is 23. He's been around forever.

Your statement is accurate, your assumption is not. It's true that if you can't handle the AHL at the age of 23, you are not making the NHL, but it's false that Hrivik can't handle the NHL. He's an all-around player who is performing very well on any line, and has done really well on the top line in the recent weeks. I doubt he'll be able to put up points in the NHL, but he will be able to play at this level if called up.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I am willing to listen to people who watch Tambo regularly and think he might make it based on factors other than his stats. But anyone basing their assessment of him on his stats is making a mistake by thinking that scoring over a point per game in the juniors is an achievement.

It's fine for him.

I've actually seen him play quite a bit. His decisionmaking has improved by leaps and bounds from when he was in NoDak to when he went to the WHL. His play away from the puck is much better. While he certainly doesn't use his body as much as he should, he no longer plays nearly as timid.

He's one of the few guys that look like the NCAA just wasn't a good fit for him development-wise.

The irony is the only thing you are using is stats, here. I have to sort of laugh at your post a bit, dude.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Your statement is accurate, your assumption is not. It's true that if you can't handle the AHL at the age of 23, you are not making the NHL, but it's false that Hrivik can't handle the NHL. He's an all-around player who is performing very well on any line, and has done really well on the top line in the recent weeks. I doubt he'll be able to put up points in the NHL, but he will be able to play at this level if called up.

Hrivik is an all-around player if we say that offense isn't needed in being an all-around player.

 

[Beacon]

Thankfully most of us can see past your ridiculous "he should score this much to be a good prospect" barometer.

It's not ridiculous if it's true 9 times out of 10, and the other 1 time the player bursts through out of nowhere late in his career.

It's also wishful thinking on your (and others) behalf. Clearly the excitement about Tambo is based on his stats. Look at what is said: he's in the top-20, he scored 53 points, yay! What exactly is that? A scouting report based on viewing a player? No, it's stat-surfing (as is being sour on Hrivik). And 90%+ of the time, scoring 53 points in 46 games at the age of 20 does not translate to an NHL career (defensive players being the exception), and a significant percentage of the time, it doesn't even translate into an AHL career.

When I was young I, too, got burned getting giddy about every player who put up these numbers. After a while you grow up and start seeing a trend, realizing that 53 points in 46 games means nothing.

But you gotta love the argument: 1) Look at his stats and how great he's doing; 2) Oh his stats aren't great? Then you stop stat-surfing as I keep referring to his stats.

 

[BBKers]

Rambo add Nejezchleb

 

[Hunter Gathers]

It's not ridiculous if it's true 9 times out of 10, and the other 1 time the player bursts through out of nowhere late in his career.

It's also wishful thinking on your (and others) behalf. Clearly the excitement about Tambo is based on his stats. Look at what is said: he's in the top-20, he scored 53 points, yay! What exactly is that? A scouting report based on viewing a player? No, it's stat-surfing (as is being sour on Hrivik). And 90%+ of the time, scoring 53 points in 46 games at the age of 20 does not translate to an NHL career (defensive players being the exception), and a significant percentage of the time, it doesn't even translate into an AHL career.

When I was young I, too, got burned getting giddy about every player who put up these numbers. After a while you grow up and start seeing a trend, realizing that 53 points in 46 games means nothing.

But you gotta love the argument: 1) Look at his stats and how great he's doing; 2) Oh his stats aren't great? Then you stop stat-surfing as I keep referring to his stats.

But you're literally stats surfing in your own opinion on Tambo.

It's hilarious to say someone can't do it but you can.

 

[aufheben]

If your catching glove is on the left hand, don't you shoot Lefty?

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Also, wait a second. Why in the world is Beacon using junior scoring and not WHL scoring? The leagues are not the same and need to be analyzed separately. That's an incredibly dumb way to measure scoring.

 

[Beacon]

I've actually seen him play quite a bit. His decisionmaking has improved by leaps and bounds from when he was in NoDak to when he went to the WHL. His play away from the puck is much better. While he certainly doesn't use his body as much as he should, he no longer plays nearly as timid.

Serious question: how do you know that Tambo improved rather than he's just facing easier competition because Junior players are younger and less polished (especially defensively) than College players? Isn't it a bit like saying that Kostka improved offensively since he was send down from the NHL to the AHL?

Since he joined the WHL a year ago, have you seen his all-around play get better? Would you say that it's now above average for a prospect his age? How quickly is he improving in the last 2 months? since the start of the season? since he joined the WHL? All real questions.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Serious question: how do you know that Tambo improved rather than he's just facing easier competition because Junior players are younger and less polished (especially defensively) than College players? Isn't it a bit like saying that Kostka improved offensively since he was send down from the NHL to the AHL?

Since he joined the WHL a year ago, have you seen his all-around play get better? Would you say that it's now above average for a prospect his age? How quickly is he improving in the last 2 months? since the start of the season? since he joined the WHL? All real questions.

Because I've seen visible improvement from last year to this? How the hell do you think? And did you just seriously compare the gap between the NCAA to the CHL with the NHL and the AHL? I can't even respond to that because it's so silly.

I don't measure improvement on a month-to-month basis since it's too small of a sample size. I look at the overall year. And he's much more assertive this year. He was a very passive player his first year and has improved that quite a bit. He was much more of a hanger-on last year and is producing more on his own, now.

He's a talented kid who was always seen as a project with nice upside. Improvement is what you want to see with him and the Rangers are going to need to be patient.

 

[Beacon]

But you're literally stats surfing in your own opinion on Tambo.

It's hilarious to say someone can't do it but you can.

I am not saying you can't stat-surf in the absence of other info, but you should know what you are looking by comparing leagues properly. To look at a junior player (Tambo) who's outscoring an AHLer (Hrivik) and therefore vote for him is ridiculous. Granted if someone is dominant in the juniors (e.g., Duke), it's different, but you can't just look at stats and not consider that the players are in different leagues.

The whole argument (repeatedly made in these polls, in the prospects forum, etc) is that Tambo is scoring well, so his stock must be rising based on stat-surfing. So you give me a stat-surfing argument, I will respond with a stat-surfing argument. Stats are important because good forwards figure out how to score, but 53 points in 46 games is just not a lot by Junior standards at the age of 20.

You want to make an argument that you saw Tambo play and he did well despite his stats, that's fine. But when you are making an argument that 53 points is a lot, the reality is that this is just false.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I am not saying you can't stat-surf in the absence of other info, but you should know what you are looking by comparing leagues properly. To look at a junior player (Tambo) who's outscoring an AHLer (Hrivik) and therefore vote for him is ridiculous. Granted if someone is dominant in the juniors (e.g., Duke), it's different, but you can't just look at stats and not consider that the players are in different leagues.

The whole argument (repeatedly made in these polls, in the prospects forum, etc) is that Tambo is scoring well, so his stock must be rising based on stat-surfing. So you give me a stat-surfing argument, I will respond with a stat-surfing argument. Stats are important because good forwards figure out how to score, but 53 points in 46 games is just not a lot by Junior standards at the age of 20.

You want to make an argument that you saw Tambo play and he did well despite his stats, that's fine. But when you are making an argument that 53 points is a lot, the reality is that this is just false.

Who is voting for Tambo because he has more points than Hrivik in different leagues? Who is even doing that?

Again, you're literally stats surfing yourself and telling others they can't. It's incredibly hypocritical.

 

[Beacon]

Also, wait a second. Why in the world is Beacon using junior scoring and not WHL scoring? The leagues are not the same and need to be analyzed separately. That's an incredibly dumb way to measure scoring.

Ok, I get that every little man here wants to pretend like seeing minor differences makes him a huge expert (that's why people love to point out their knowledge of #fancystats), but the leagues are now very close in scoring. It used to be that the QMJHL would play no defense and a whole bunch of their players would score 100+ points, many 150 points and that would mean nothing, while the WHL was a super-defensive league by junior standards. This problem has more-or-less gone away and the number of players who scored, say, 30 or 50 or 70 points so far this year is about the same across the leagues. Yes, the leagues aren't perfectly the same, but the schedules of teams in different divisions and conferences isn't the same either, it is sometimes easier to score in one conference than the other, but we still can give rough comparisons.

But if you want to look at just the WHL, go for it. Take a look at a kid who scored 1.15 points per game in the WHL 5 or 10 years ago who was 20 years old and not a defense-first guy. What percentage wound up in the NHL? It's tiny.