Confirmed Signing with Link: [NYR] NY Rangers re-sign Kevin Hayes (2 years, $2.6M AAV)

[Levitate]

Faceoff percentage is kind of completely useless unless you're either so far above or so far below 50% that it's way outside the realm of chance. Everything else is basically a coin toss and where most centers generally fall.

Hayes is currently far below 50% and it is a legitimate criticism of him. He needs to get better at it one way or another.

That said, he's a skilled player and he's going to put up points. Acting like he's a borderline NHLer is dumb and anyone promoting that should be ashamed

 

[Off Sides]

Hayes averaged like 5 faceoffs per game last year

If he can improve to win ~2.4 of them instead of only ~1.8 of them, he'd be much closer to 50%

Is him improving by about one win every other game too much to hope for?

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Even at max retention I don't see any of those players returning a big ticket player. Unless said player has a big ticket cap hit on top of that.

Sounds to me like Hayes is pretty much useless as a forward in general. At least based on the comments here and other things I've heard Ranger fans say about KH.

Any Rangers fan that says Hayes is a useless forward has no clue what they are talking about.

 

[TGWL]

Yes, I would consider a guy with average at best skating and a BRUTAL faceoff percentage to be doing worse at a position that requires you to cover more ice than anyone else along with getting killed at the key heads up matchup that begins every play to be doing worse

but you know, cant convince you to understand how being a slow footed center with the worst faceoff percentage in the league how guy is just not doing well at center. yet you want to use such a minute sample size of half of one season to reinforce your point whereas I will continue to use his whole two full seasons

continue on with warping the truth. must be some reason a successful NHL coach like AV moved him off center. But maybe you can write him a letter about how HF board posters know more about the game than him

And what's the reason for moving him back to center?

 

[WesMcCauley]

Now you're just row-row rowing like a sailor, just to remind you what you wrote and i commented on:

"agree. He is not a winger and faceoffs is the most overrated stat in hockey. Its not an important stat at all. Sure some times winning a faceoff is importantl(like in the defensive sone with 15 seconds left) but Hayes isnt on the ice when the critical faceoffs are taken(if he is, its not because anyone wants him on the ice for it)."

I have no intention on arguing about this, i have watched hockey more or less since the early 90's and for 15 years been greatly into scouting, player development, analytics and tactics. Also in NFL, NBA and soccer.

You can argue how you want and maybe you should ask a modern puck control preaching coach how he likes it. To have the upper hand easier by winning the face-off or by chasing it from the other team most of the time.

With todays marginal differences in overall talent of a team, coaching and tighter team play the "small" things matter. Doesn't matter how you chew it.

Bringing special talent like Malkin into Hayes conversation? Alright. Let's put it this way, how many games would've Dave Steckel or Paul Gaustad played if they had 42% in face-offs?

And i stand by it. Winning alot of faceoffs isnt important when it comes to the outcome of the game. You said its a key stat for centers. It really isnt. If it were a key stat, the best teams in the league should be leading it or be top 5 every year. Because center depth is one of the most important things to have in hockey. NYR have won presidents trophy, played a cup final, conference final etc beeing a horrible faceoff team.

The thing is that the difference between the worst faceoff team and the best was under 10%. Arizona won 54%(best) and Vancouver 45%(worst). If you average 60 faceoffs per game which is normal. 54% is 32,4 wins. 45% is 27 wins. It just doesnt mean anything if you win 32 or 27 and the standings prove it. Beeing a good faceoff team isnt important at all if you wanna win games.

Im not saying you want to lose them but the advantage you get from winning faceoffs Are rarely big enough for it to actually have a big enough impact on the game, that winning 5 more than the other team matter. Its what you do with and without the puck after the draws that matter. How else could a team like NYR go so far in the playoffs year after year while beeing a horrible faceoff team?

Is it a positive to be able to win faceoffs? Sure. But they arent a key stat that are important to be great at if you wanna win games. Its proven year after year.

Stamkos won 45% in 11-12 season and scored 60. He took 27th most faceoffs in the league so he took tons of them. More faceoffs than Toews took that year. You just dont need to win alot of them to be an effective player/center.

 

[WesMcCauley]

Faceoff percentage is kind of completely useless unless you're either so far above or so far below 50% that it's way outside the realm of chance. Everything else is basically a coin toss and where most centers generally fall.

Hayes is currently far below 50% and it is a legitimate criticism of him. He needs to get better at it one way or another.

That said, he's a skilled player and he's going to put up points. Acting like he's a borderline NHLer is dumb and anyone promoting that should be ashamed

Eichel won 40%.
Mcdavid won 41%.

Hayes has only played one more season than them in the NHL. Im not a big Hayes fan but winning faceoff is all about timing and knowing how to cheat to win them. That comes with experience. Thats why so many veteran guys are good at it. No one are complaining about Mcdavid`s and Eichel`s faceoff %. Hayes will get better at it like pretty much everyone do with age.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

And what's the reason for moving him back to center?

line blender when all the lines were sputtering

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

And i stand by it. Winning alot of faceoffs isnt important when it comes to the outcome of the game. You said its a key stat for centers. It really isnt. If it were a key stat, the best teams in the league should be leading it or be top 5 every year. Because center depth is one of the most important things to have in hockey. NYR have won presidents trophy, played a cup final, conference final etc beeing a horrible faceoff team.

The thing is that the difference between the worst faceoff team and the best was under 10%. Arizona won 54%(best) and Vancouver 45%(worst). If you average 60 faceoffs per game which is normal. 54% is 32,4 wins. 45% is 27 wins. It just doesnt mean anything if you win 32 or 27 and the standings prove it. Beeing a good faceoff team isnt important at all if you wanna win games.

Im not saying you want to lose them but the advantage you get from winning faceoffs Are rarely big enough for it to actually have a big enough impact on the game, that winning 5 more than the other team matter. Its what you do with and without the puck after the draws that matter. How else could a team like NYR go so far in the playoffs year after year while beeing a horrible faceoff team?

Is it a positive to be able to win faceoffs? Sure. But they arent a key stat that are important to be great at if you wanna win games. Its proven year after year.

Stamkos won 45% in 11-12 season and scored 60. He took 27th most faceoffs in the league so he took tons of them. More faceoffs than Toews took that year. You just dont need to win alot of them to be an effective player/center.

And I will just say this...

Every team that has won the cup for the past 6-8 years has had a guy at about 55% or better on the team taking draws...

It is a very underrated aspect of the game that you need at least one very dominant face off guy paired with good center depth.

The best face off guy NYR has on the roster for the upcoming year is Zibenejad at 50.4%, Lindberg at 48.4%, Stepan at 46.7%, Jooris at 44.4% and Hayes at 35.9%

Granted talking about 55+% guys is getting slightly off track, the point trying to be made here is that because of lack of a go-to face off guy, you can't afford to have one of your centers popping off 35% at the dot when your top guy is peaking at 50%

Who is going to take key PK and end of game D zone draws? Zibenejad? Stepan? (This was one area that D.Moore helped NYR a lot) I mean they are going to be holding on for dear life while the other team controls plays and peppers pucks on net at Lundqvist

Not to mention that many centers losing that many draws is going to drain your offense and PP

 

[Levitate]

Eichel won 40%.
Mcdavid won 41%.

Hayes has only played one more season than them in the NHL. Im not a big Hayes fan but winning faceoff is all about timing and knowing how to cheat to win them. That comes with experience. Thats why so many veteran guys are good at it. No one are complaining about Mcdavid`s and Eichel`s faceoff %. Hayes will get better at it like pretty much everyone do with age.

For sure, Hayes hadn't played center in a long while until he did it in his first NHL season. It takes time to get good at it. I will say that you keep comparing Hayes to other centers who are either stars or upcoming stars, and while I like Hayes I don't think he's that good, so there is some argument that being able to put up a ton of points outweighs certain deficiencies, but really the faceoffs issue is more of an annoyance than a huge huge flaw in his game.

And I will just say this...

Every team that has won the cup for the past 6-8 years has had a guy at about 55% or better on the team taking draws...

It is a very underrated aspect of the game that you need at least one very dominant face off guy paired with good center depth.

The best face off guy NYR has on the roster for the upcoming year is Zibenejad at 50.4%, Lindberg at 48.4%, Stepan at 46.7%, Jooris at 44.4% and Hayes at 35.9%

Granted talking about 55+% guys is getting slightly off track, the point trying to be made here is that because of lack of a go-to face off guy, you can't afford to have one of your centers popping off 35% at the dot when your top guy is peaking at 50%

Who is going to take key PK and end of game D zone draws? Zibenejad? Stepan? I mean they are going to be holding on for dear life while the other team controls plays and peppers pucks on net at Lundqvist

Not to mention that many centers losing that many draws is going to drain your offense and PP

The difference between winning 55% and 50% is basically statistical noise. There are some guys who are consistently great at them and it helps a bit if you have a must win defensive zone faceoff or something, but I think you're also far overselling the impact.

 

[YngwieJ86]

And i stand by it. Winning alot of faceoffs isnt important when it comes to the outcome of the game. You said its a key stat for centers. It really isnt. If it were a key stat, the best teams in the league should be leading it or be top 5 every year. Because center depth is one of the most important things to have in hockey. NYR have won presidents trophy, played a cup final, conference final etc beeing a horrible faceoff team.

The thing is that the difference between the worst faceoff team and the best was under 10%. Arizona won 54%(best) and Vancouver 45%(worst). If you average 60 faceoffs per game which is normal. 54% is 32,4 wins. 45% is 27 wins. It just doesnt mean anything if you win 32 or 27 and the standings prove it. Beeing a good faceoff team isnt important at all if you wanna win games.

Im not saying you want to lose them but the advantage you get from winning faceoffs Are rarely big enough for it to actually have a big enough impact on the game, that winning 5 more than the other team matter. Its what you do with and without the puck after the draws that matter. How else could a team like NYR go so far in the playoffs year after year while beeing a horrible faceoff team?

Is it a positive to be able to win faceoffs? Sure. But they arent a key stat that are important to be great at if you wanna win games. Its proven year after year.

Stamkos won 45% in 11-12 season and scored 60. He took 27th most faceoffs in the league so he took tons of them. More faceoffs than Toews took that year. You just dont need to win alot of them to be an effective player/center.

Center depth is a team related thing, not an individual skill.

But anyway, i like stats, you can always use them to support your case and you never have to explain them in wider setting and it's even better in most cases not to bring the whole truth. Ask salesmen

About the team examples, Rangers were/are a good team and actually on a paper it should be really good. Maybe they would indeed score more if they got the puck more as you referred to their poor stats and well, success compared to expectations and names on the roster.

Carolinas position on the other hand was a positive surprise to me as their team was so much worse in terms of quality compared to Rangers last season. Also Ward/Lack<<<<<<<Lundqvist/Raanta

Also Arizona was really positive surprise the past season, the same description as i wrote before is correct in this case too. They are low in the standings but who didn't expect then to be dead last or right next to it? They were in total rebuilding mode which Rangers surely were not last season. Aaand Smith/Domingue/Lindbäck<<<<<<<<Lundqvist/Raanta.

Vancouver had 'comparable' talent to those aforementioned rebuilders (still not talking about potential or future) the past season and worst FO% as you mentioned and the result is also in this case visible in the bottom of the standings even with sedins.

2011-2012 Stamkos, like Malkin are in a whole different class, not comparable at all to normal players.

I have to say that i fail to see how you're examples prove your case? Looks like you're supporting my point with your arguments and still stating totally the opposite?

 

[YngwieJ86]

For sure, Hayes hadn't played center in a long while until he did it in his first NHL season. It takes time to get good at it. I will say that you keep comparing Hayes to other centers who are either stars or upcoming stars, and while I like Hayes I don't think he's that good, so there is some argument that being able to put up a ton of points outweighs certain deficiencies, but really the faceoffs issue is more of an annoyance than a huge huge flaw in his game.



The difference between winning 55% and 50% is basically statistical noise. There are some guys who are consistently great at them and it helps a bit if you have a must win defensive zone faceoff or something, but I think you're also far overselling the impact.

For example:
82 matches in regular season + 4 x 5-7 games in playoffs for stanley cup finalist = ~106 games.
Count that with avg number of draws per game of the top 6 center you want and tell me how big of the noise for 5% is. I would say pretty god damn significant.

It's not like it is the most important skill in icehockey but let's stop this nonsense already.

 

[Avsblitzkrieg]

Congrats guys! Hopefully he can up his FO℅ I'll be rooting for him unless it's against my avs!

 

[vendetta]

It did but also turning up at the camp out of shape. Fingers crossed he's learnt what it takes to be a fulltime athlete because he has all the talent in the world (70-80 point upside IMO).

Sorry but no way his upside is 70-80 points...

 

[Irishguy42]

Sorry but no way his upside is 70-80 points...

Agreed.

However, I can see 70pts being his ceiling if everything goes perfectly. More likely he'll be a 50-60 guy for a while.

 

[Off Sides]

For example:
82 matches in regular season + 4 x 5-7 games in playoffs for stanley cup finalist = ~106 games.
Count that with avg number of draws per game of the top 6 center you want and tell me how big of the noise for 5% is. I would say pretty god damn significant.

It's not like it is the most important skill in icehockey but let's stop this nonsense already.

He took about ~5 (4.8) face offs per game last season.

At 36% that is 1.79 wins out of those 5

(if he could get to 50% it would be 2.5 out of those 5)

(If he wins 2/5 that is 40%)

He only needs to improve to winning about one to two more draws per every other game to be right between 40% and 50%

Is that really something that is not possible?

I mean I doubt he is ever good at them, like >50%, but it does not seem like a insurmountable task for him to get close to it.

 

[NYR713]

Agreed.

However, I can see 70pts being his ceiling if everything goes perfectly. More likely he'll be a 50-60 guy for a while.

I seriously doubt Hayes ever comes near 70 points in his career. I haven't seen anything out of him to indicate he'll be more than a 45-50 pt player... maybe touch 60 one magical season. If he can get his FO% up, he'll be a solid 3C for the foreseeable future.

 

[dashripdot]

And what's the reason for moving him back to center?

His best talent is his ability to hang onto the puck in the offensive zone, using his big frame and long reach to possess it and then distribute it for good scoring chances. It's what made him so useful as a rookie, and his failure to do so last year made him almost useless. I expect him to rebound at center. He was not effective on the wing last season.

 

[YngwieJ86]

He took about ~5 (4.8) face offs per game last season.

At 36% that is 1.79 wins out of those 5

(if he could get to 50% it would be 2.5 out of those 5)

(If he wins 2/5 that is 40%)

He only needs to improve to winning about one to two more draws per every other game to be right between 40% and 50%

Is that really something that is not possible?

I mean I doubt he is ever good at them, like >50%, but it does not seem like a insurmountable task for him to get close to it.

I mean, you didn't even have to read between to lines to understand it was generally about faceoffs, not about Hayes.

But when talking more about on topic, yeah quite often young players suck in the faceoffs circle, but they get better at it with a lot of practice. Anticipation might be something not everybody has or quick reflexes but in my opinion all of these can be overcome by just a lot of practice. If he sucks still in 3-4 years as much, he's a lazy boy.

I haven't watched Hayes personally much last season, but based on stats and what people write on the forum here, i would guess he plays on the wing until he gets his faceoffs and skating in shape. It's pretty tough combo if you lose the puck most of the time as a centerman and aren't quick enough to catch it back.
That is unless you want to lose to have a longer summer or beg for boot as a coach.

 

[Off Sides]

There were only 14 forwards last year with 70 or more points. Hayes is in my view not going to be that sort of player.

Considering 45 to 50 points for a forward last season ranked in production right about 82nd - 107th

I think that about fits what Hayes can do if healthy, plays well and coaching uses him in a good spot.

 

[Off Sides]

I mean, you didn't even have to read between to lines to understand it was generally about faceoffs, not about Hayes.

But when talking more about on topic, yeah quite often young players suck in the faceoffs circle, but they get better at it with a lot of practice. Anticipation might be something not everybody has or quick reflexes but in my opinion all of these can be overcome by just a lot of practice. If he sucks still in 3-4 years as much, he's a lazy boy.

I haven't watched Hayes personally much last season, but based on stats and what people write on the forum here, i would guess he plays on the wing until he gets his faceoffs and skating in shape. It's pretty tough combo if you lose the puck most of the time as a centerman and aren't quick enough to catch it back.
That is unless you want to lose to have a longer summer or beg for boot as a coach.

Hayes, they tried him at wing, he does not play that sort of game, he is deliberate with the puck and tries to make plays, (sometimes good, sometimes not) but he looks for wingers to pass to.

I think if he can improve on face offs they are likely looking at that tweener top 6 to top 9 center that can develop to a real top 6 one. (He'd also have to learn to hustle a bit more on back checking, or anticipate when to turn quicker)

If he plays wing I think he'd be forced into a top 6 role where his point totals likely never fit what the production should be for a top 6 wing.

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

This whole faceoff thing is overblown. In all likeliness he will improve, and if he doesn't someone on his line will take the faceoffs for him.

Its really a non-issue

 

[Levitate]

His skating also isn't that bad. He has a lumbering look to his stride somewhat but he's not as slow or terrible as people make him out to be. It generally has not been a big issue for him or at the very least not what held him back last season

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

line blender when all the lines were sputtering

That's just incorrect. His entire time in the NHL 95% of it has been spent at center.


He's bad at faceoffs yes, but Hayes is a center. He's leaps and bounds better at the NHL level in the middle. He's a slower skater and he likes to hold onto the puck extra long, he has great vision and he lets the play develop around him. It sucks that he's not good at faceoffs, but he IS a center. People need to realize there is so much more to being a good center than faceoffs.

 

[Levitate]

Yeah when he came into the NHL he wanted to play center, and the Rangers wanted to develop him at center. He's been a center pretty much day 1 with the Rangers, though it had been awhile since he played it consistently in college I believe. Being a big rangy guy is a strength at center as well I think

 

[Burner Account]

IIRC in the last 2-3 years, he's one of the best in the NHL in assists per 60 minutes 5v5.