Value of: Nylander for the Leafs...with a signed offer sheet

[Volica]

Why spam the main board with Leafs only threads.

Leafs fans should use their own board for this.

HFBoards is pretty much a Leafs board, so, you'll have to get used to that.

 

[Nithoniniel]

HFBoards is pretty much a Leafs board, so, you'll have to get used to that.

Especially since we get credit for other fans posting about the Leafs too.

On topic, no. Leafs match. Other teams know Leafs would match, so they won't ever bother. Just like in every other offer sheet scenario brought up since O'Reilly.

 

[cneely]

People look at it and say "Nylander for $8mil? Thats overpaid". Which it certainly would be at the moment, but by how much? $1-2 million max? Is that tiny amount of cap space worth the extreme value loss (Nylander >>> 1st/2nd/3rd)? The answer is most definitely no. The Leafs absolutely match an offer sheet like that 10 times out of 10.

Ehlers is comparable at $6 mm AAV.
Pasta is $6.6 mm

$8 is probably around $2 mm too much IMO. Is that worth walking over? Probably not, but it depends how tight to the cap they are after the Matthews signing.

 

[Nizdizzle]

Ehlers is comparable at $6 mm AAV.
Pasta is $6.6 mm

$8 is probably around $2 mm too much IMO. Is that worth walking over? Probably not, but it depends how tight to the cap they are after the Matthews signing.

The cap has risen since both those deals, so the comparable rises as well. I will be jumping for joy if we can sign Nylander for $6-milliom though.

Walking from a player like Nylander/Pasternak/Ehlers over $2-million per on a long term deal is a move that should see the GM get fired immediately. You can find $2-mill in space in plenty of places on the roster, you make room for elite talent.

 

[cneely]

The cap has risen since both those deals, so the comparable rises as well. I will be jumping for joy if we can sign Nylander for $6-milliom though.

Yeah, that's fair enough, so maybe $6.5 to $7 is fair market for him.

 

[DanM]

Still offer sheeting Willie on here? lol

If we are not offer sheeting him, we are trading him, these threads never stop.

Well since it won't ever happen, no need to even weigh in.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Why would anyone want to offersheet our mediocre winger who plays soft and disappears in the playoffs???

 

[Sherwood71]

Can't the Leafs just counter offer him a 7 million x 8 years then?

Secures Nylander an extra 15.5 million dollars long term and stays in Toronto playing with Matthews.

In short:

-If he gets offer sheeted short term 8.1m x 5, Leafs counter with term 7m x 8.

-If a team offers sheets 6m x 8 (2 1sts compensation), Leafs counter with more AAV 6.5-7m x 8

-If a team offers sheets 8m x 8 (4 1sts compensation), Leafs take the picks and leaves.

Also remember, before anything, the guy has to sign the offer sheet in the first place.

The offer sheet would only work on a super cap strapped team that literally don't have the space to even match a 6m contract. This is not the case here, Leafs have all the leverage in the world and that's why you're not seeing it already happen.

Where are you getting this from? I'm pretty sure this is wrong unless there is something I'm missing. For 2 1sts, a second, and a third, it has to be over 8.118 million and for four first round picks it has to be over 10.1 million. 6 million is a first and a third and 8 million is a first, second, and third. I'd imagine Leafs would match anything that isn't above 10.1 million. If a team offers 5 by 8.1, Nylander could consider it because, provided he continues to develop and doesn't have a severe injury, he will make more once he hits the UFA market. In terms of money, signing when you are 27 for 7 or 8 years at a UFA price is ideal because that takes you towards the end of your career and teams are willing to overpay. 8.1 means a first, second, and third, which isn't a great return for the Leafs but that also potentially complicates negotiations with other RFAs on the Leafs. Even if another team did 5 by 9 or so, I'd imagine the Leafs would consider possibly matching but I don't know how they feel about two firsts, a second, and a third if the team that offer sheets is middle tier and have cap room (NJD maybe?). Again this all provides he signs it or before he signs it, presents it to Dubas as leverage.

Also, can Leafs fans tell me their perspective if a team like NJD offered 5 by 9.5 million and assuming he signed it, what would you do? Match it or leave it? NJD would get better and can probably make the playoffs again so that would be mid-late picks in each round presumably. Genuinely curious at that possibility since it seems to handcuff them a little.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

The only really nasty OS someone could put forward would be 3x7M or thereabouts.

 

[mammothCacti]

Where are you getting this from? I'm pretty sure this is wrong unless there is something I'm missing. For 2 1sts, a second, and a third, it has to be over 8.118 million and for four first round picks it has to be over 10.1 million. 6 million is a first and a third and 8 million is a first, second, and third. I'd imagine Leafs would match anything that isn't above 10.1 million. If a team offers 5 by 8.1, Nylander could consider it because, provided he continues to develop and doesn't have a sever injury, he will make more once he hits the UFA market. In terms of money, signing when you are 27 for 7 or 8 years at a UFA price is ideal because that takes you towards the end of your career and teams are willing to overpay. 8.1 means a first, second, and third, which isn't a great return for the Leafs but that also potentially complicates negotiations with other RFAs on the Leafs. Even if another team did 5 by 9 or so, I'd imagine the Leafs would consider possibly matching but I don't know how they feel about two firsts, a second, and a third if the team that offer sheets is middle tier and have cap room (NJD maybe?). Again this all provides he signs it or before he signs it, presents it to Dubas as leverage.

Also, can Leafs fans tell me their perspective if a team like NJD offered 5 by 9.5 million and assuming he signed it, what would you do? Match it or leave it? NJD would get better and can probably make the playoffs again so that would be mid-late picks in each round presumably. Genuinely curious at that possibility since it seems to handcuff them a little.

Remember offer sheets work so that any AAV compensation calculation is spread over 5 years maximum.

So say 8x8 offer sheets = 64 million
64m/ 5 years= 12.8 million dollar compensation range.

And of course if someone offers 9 million x 5 years then the AAV is 9.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[Sherwood71]

Remember offer sheets work so that any AAV compensation calculation is spread over 5 years maximum.

So say 8x8 offer sheets = 64 million
64m/ 5 years= 12.8 million dollar compensation range.

And of course if someone offers 9 million x 5 years then the AAV is 9.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

Awesome, didn't realize that part. I thought it was just AAV for the contract. Thanks!

 

[Nizdizzle]

Where are you getting this from? I'm pretty sure this is wrong unless there is something I'm missing. For 2 1sts, a second, and a third, it has to be over 8.118 million and for four first round picks it has to be over 10.1 million. 6 million is a first and a third and 8 million is a first, second, and third. I'd imagine Leafs would match anything that isn't above 10.1 million. If a team offers 5 by 8.1, Nylander could consider it because, provided he continues to develop and doesn't have a sever injury, he will make more once he hits the UFA market. In terms of money, signing when you are 27 for 7 or 8 years at a UFA price is ideal because that takes you towards the end of your career and teams are willing to overpay. 8.1 means a first, second, and third, which isn't a great return for the Leafs but that also potentially complicates negotiations with other RFAs on the Leafs. Even if another team did 5 by 9 or so, I'd imagine the Leafs would consider possibly matching but I don't know how they feel about two firsts, a second, and a third if the team that offer sheets is middle tier and have cap room (NJD maybe?). Again this all provides he signs it or before he signs it, presents it to Dubas as leverage.

Also, can Leafs fans tell me their perspective if a team like NJD offered 5 by 9.5 million and assuming he signed it, what would you do? Match it or leave it? NJD would get better and can probably make the playoffs again so that would be mid-late picks in each round presumably. Genuinely curious at that possibility since it seems to handcuff them a little.

I'm not sure what I'd do in that situation. I think the right move would be to match, but I think that would all depend on how contract talks are going with Matthews/Marner. If management thinks they can sign Mitch and Auston for a little less than market value (say ~$7 and ~$10-mill respectively), then I think you can justify keeping Nylander at that price. Perhaps they'd try to negotiate a deal with NJ at that point for a bit more than Offer sheet compensation (similar to how Kessel to the Leafs worked).

 

[mammothCacti]

Awesome, didn't realize that part. I thought it was just AAV for the contract. Thanks!

Also I would actually probably let Nylander go for the NJ 9.5 million contract, not worth at that point.

Keep in mind though, this sets a precedent for a young, forward thinking GM in Dubas that just got screwed a bit by an offer sheet.

NJ, or even other teams (Laine, Dahlin, Hischier, Etc.) then have to be worried. Cause you also gave the Leafs an extra 4 picks. I feel future offer sheets will be coming from the Leafs if this happens.

Would be really fun to see though.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Believe it or not, GMs have a vested interest in not inflating contract values. No one is going to pay 8.1 AAV for William Nylander.

 

[ACC1224]

Remember offer sheets work so that any AAV compensation calculation is spread over 5 years maximum.

So say 8x8 offer sheets = 64 million
64m/ 5 years= 12.8 million dollar compensation range.

And of course if someone offers 9 million x 5 years then the AAV is 9.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

I don't think an Offer Sheet can be 8 years, 7 would be the max.

 

[ffh]

The cap has risen since both those deals, so the comparable rises as well. I will be jumping for joy if we can sign Nylander for $6-milliom though.

Walking from a player like Nylander/Pasternak/Ehlers over $2-million per on a long term deal is a move that should see the GM get fired immediately. You can find $2-mill in space in plenty of places on the roster, you make room for elite talent.

Ehlers contract starts this year.

 

[Nizdizzle]

Ehlers contract starts this year.

It was signed last year in October before anyone knew how the cap would change this offseason.

 

[Martin Skoula]

It was signed last year in October before anyone knew how the cap would change this offseason.

I can't see front office flying blind with regard to expected future cap ceilings. They must have a solid idea (+/- a mil or so) of what to expect outside of extreme changes like a new CBA.

 

[Jared Dunn]

They match that. It would make next summer even harder cap wise, but if they had to move him chances are they'd get better value than a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for Nylander even if he's deemed as overpaid at 8.1

 

[Jared Dunn]

Ehlers is comparable at $6 mm AAV.
Pasta is $6.6 mm

$8 is probably around $2 mm too much IMO. Is that worth walking over? Probably not, but it depends how tight to the cap they are after the Matthews signing.

Both good comparables, Ehlers especially since they were drafted right next to eachother, have both not really been "the guy" on their line and have eerily similar numbers in their last two seasons.

Personally I think Ehlers is slightly better but it's not enough of a difference to argue. The cap has risen roughly 6%, so going from Ehlers' deal: if you just strictly gave him the 6% raise top reflect cap he'd be at about 6.35, but he also has one more productive season under his belt that I think gives him a slight boost.

I think he's going to land at Pasta's exact money but with an additional year. I don't see how he could possibly ask for anything higher than 7 based on his comparables, and don't see how the Leafs could offer less than 6 for the same reason

 

[DomBarr]

It's really easy to say the Leafs would match as hockey fans but if and I really don't think it will happen but if Nylander signs a 5x8.1M offersheet it would cause the Leafs to hold their nose while they match it mainly because the compensation does not match Nylanders value AND they have the cap space to deal with it for a year however the next year as soon as they are eligible to they will be looking to trade him.
It becomes tougher at 8.2 because the compensation is closer to his actual value (2 1sts a second and a 3rd) so much so I actually think they walk away.
The whole outlook that Shanahan is aiming for is that the team is more than the individual and Nylander signing an offersheet goes directly against that.

As to the Leafs starting to use offer sheets as a tool that wouldn't happen as offer sheets require overpayment and a player that signs an offersheet does not really fit the mold of a player who Shanahan wants on the team nor do I think that their long term Cap Budget can fit a significantly overpaid player in it.

 

[Liferleafer]

Both good comparables, Ehlers especially since they were drafted right next to eachother, have both not really been "the guy" on their line and have eerily similar numbers in their last two seasons.

Personally I think Ehlers is slightly better but it's not enough of a difference to argue. The cap has risen roughly 6%, so going from Ehlers' deal: if you just strictly gave him the 6% raise top reflect cap he'd be at about 6.35, but he also has one more productive season under his belt that I think gives him a slight boost.

I think he's going to land at Pasta's exact money but with an additional year. I don't see how he could possibly ask for anything higher than 7 based on his comparables, and don't see how the Leafs could offer less than 6 for the same reason

Under the B...7....BINGO!!

 

[yababy]

If I'm Arizona, I start the campaign of landing Matthews by making Toronto match an offer sheet on Nylander, then Marner, then see how they feel about matching 15m on Matthews

 

[BM14]

If I'm Arizona, I start the campaign of landing Matthews by making Toronto match an offer sheet on Nylander, then Marner, then see how they feel about matching 15m on Matthews

Arizona has 15m? lol

 

[ACC1224]

If I'm Arizona, I start the campaign of landing Matthews by making Toronto match an offer sheet on Nylander, then Marner, then see how they feel about matching 15m on Matthews

For sure because those players are just dying to play in Arizona.
Do you ever think before you post?