Value of: Nylander for the Leafs...with a signed offer sheet

Fables

Registered User
Apr 27, 2015
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It's a slow summer for a hockey fan so reading about signings, trades and negotiations is about the only interesting hocket related activity.

I just took a look at this story about Matthews and his new contract:

Maple Leafs, star centre Auston Matthews talking contract extension - Sportsnet.ca

Regarding that story I believe that the Eichel contact sets the floor for Matthews while the Tavares contract sets the maximum. Of course it's possible that he wants to give Leafs a really, really team friendly contract and accepts one between 9-10 millions or that he wants to be highest paid player and demands 11-12 millions. But I think the very likely contract value for him will be anything between 10 and 11 millions.

I also personally agree with most people about value of Leafs big three: Matthews > Marner > Nylander ( though now with Tavares I quess we should talk about big four). So I assume they would like sign those three to long term contracts in that order/priority even though Nylander is the one needing his contract first. And I believe that if one of these players needs to be signed to a bridge contracts due Cap issues it will be Nylander.

This made wonder how much Leafs fans would value Nylander in a situation where he gets and signs an offer sheet that is relatively high but not ridiculous. I don't mean to troll and say that Nylander wants to leave. I actually believe he wants to stay in Toronto and win. Therefore I'm completely exluding here a possibility that he would sign an offer sheet from a team that has no chance of competing in the next few years.

But let's assume that a possible contender (teams like Stars, Sharks, etc...) would make Nylander an offer sheet of 5 x 8.1 millions and offer a role he would like and Nylander signs. For Nylander this would be a nice contract. It would pay him a bit more than he's worth at the moment considering this would buy out mostly his RFA years and he would be in a perfect age (27) to really cash in with his next contract when he will be UFA.

Are there any Leafs fans that would hesitate matching this offer sheet? The compensation would be 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks. But if the the offer sheet is from valid contender those should be late picks in each round.

I assume in a vacuum Leafs would match without hesitation. But it's not so simple if you think about other implications. Paying this much to Nylander might set the floor for Marner long term
contract (or a least make it higher than it would be otherwise), matcing would mean Leafs are paying Nylander this much while they still need to pay Marleau the big bucks, etc. Or it could possibly force leafs to bridge Marner and likely make his long term contract 1-2 millions higher the following years. So maybe Dubas would hesitate to macth???

I think Leafs would still match without blinking but I'm curious to hear if any leafs fans would be willing to let Nylander go in this situation and take the picks instead?
 
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loyaltotheend

Registered User
May 5, 2016
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No. The picks are very unlikely to be someone as good as Nylander. He's worth that anyway, though tough for cap.

It's all pointless anyway, no one in their right mind leaves the situation he's in to chase what, .5M per year in SJ? Sharks window is quickly closing
 

mammothCacti

Registered User
Feb 19, 2018
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Can't the Leafs just counter offer him a 7 million x 8 years then?

Secures Nylander an extra 15.5 million dollars long term and stays in Toronto playing with Matthews.

In short:

-If he gets offer sheeted short term 8.1m x 5, Leafs counter with term 7m x 8.

-If a team offers sheets 6m x 8 (2 1sts compensation), Leafs counter with more AAV 6.5-7m x 8

-If a team offers sheets 8m x 8 (4 1sts compensation), Leafs take the picks and leaves.

Also remember, before anything, the guy has to sign the offer sheet in the first place.

The offer sheet would only work on a super cap strapped team that literally don't have the space to even match a 6m contract. This is not the case here, Leafs have all the leverage in the world and that's why you're not seeing it already happen.
 

Fables

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Apr 27, 2015
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<Sharks window is quickly closing>
I didn't really try think too hard on which teams are the most likely suitors or check if they have needed picks for the offer sheet..just took two teams that first came to my mind as examples.
I was only interested to see how the leafs fans would value Nylander in that situation.

<Can't the Leafs just counter offer him a 7 million x 8 years then? >
My understanding on an offer sheet has been that the team owning the player rights can only match the offer sheet as it is and can't change the money or term. Can anyone confirm this or tell me if I have been wrong?

<Also remember, before anything, the guy has to sign the offer sheet in the first place.>
I thought abouth this. That why I exluded the scenario where Nylander would sign an offer sheet from a bottow dweller.... and that it would have to be a contender. This would also mean that the received picks would be late round picks.
 

Spirit of 67

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Nov 25, 2016
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I think it's far more likely he's the victim of a radio active gas leak leaving him with super powers that make him the greatest player of all time.
 

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,377
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OP if i take your example literally and im toronto - i 100% no questions asked sign Nylander after that offer sheet.

If i somehow am unhappy with contract and want to trade him still - i do. Youll fetch more in a trade for him than a 1st a 2nd and a 3rd.
 
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mammothCacti

Registered User
Feb 19, 2018
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<Sharks window is quickly closing>
I didn't really try think too hard on which teams are the most likely suitors or check if they have needed picks for the offer sheet..just took two teams that first came to my mind as examples.
I was only interested to see how the leafs fans would value Nylander in that situation.

<Can't the Leafs just counter offer him a 7 million x 8 years then? >
My understanding on an offer sheet has been that the team owning the player rights can only match the offer sheet as it is and can't change the money or term. Can anyone confirm this or tell me if I have been wrong?

<Also remember, before anything, the guy has to sign the offer sheet in the first place.>
I thought abouth this. That why I exluded the scenario where Nylander would sign an offer sheet from a bottow dweller.... and that it would have to be a contender. This would also mean that the received picks would be late round picks.

Read up a little and heres how it works:

Another team that's not the Leafs can give Nylander an offer sheet.

Before Nylander decides on signing the offer sheet, the Leafs are free to give another contract to Nylander with different terms and he can sign that one instead.

If Nylander actually SIGNS the offer sheet, then the Leafs can't offer another contract as Nylander has signed the offer.

What I mean in this case is that if another team offers a sheet for Nylander to sign at 8.1m x 5, Leafs could just offer an alternative contract at 7m x 8. Which one is Nylander more likely to sign?
 

garyturner3

Registered User
Jun 16, 2015
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You dont spend years developing star players and then as soon they reach that star status trade them for picks. IF nylander is traded it would be for an established player.
 

therealkoho

Him/Leaf/fan
Jul 10, 2009
17,091
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Read up a little and heres how it works:

Another team that's not the Leafs can give Nylander an offer sheet.

Before Nylander decides on signing the offer sheet, the Leafs are free to give another contract to Nylander with different terms and he can sign that one instead.

If Nylander actually SIGNS the offer sheet, then the Leafs can't offer another contract as Nylander has signed the offer.

What I mean in this case is that if another team offers a sheet for Nylander to sign at 8.1m x 5, Leafs could just offer an alternative contract at 7m x 8. Which one is Nylander more likely to sign?
not true they have the right to match and as Nylander would be an RFA, he would be beholden to the Leafs to sign a matching offer
NHL CBA FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

The club that receives an Offer Sheet has 7 days to match the offer or accept the draft pick compensation:
  • If the receiving club accepts the Offer Sheet, they receive the compensation package which coincides with the annual average value of the offer made from the submitting club
  • If the receiving club matches the Offer Sheet, they are bound to the contract details outlined in the offer, and must respect all aspects of the contract
  • If the receiving club matches the Offer Sheet, they cannot trade that player for 1 year from the date of first refusal
 

Nizdizzle

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People look at it and say "Nylander for $8mil? Thats overpaid". Which it certainly would be at the moment, but by how much? $1-2 million max? Is that tiny amount of cap space worth the extreme value loss (Nylander >>> 1st/2nd/3rd)? The answer is most definitely no. The Leafs absolutely match an offer sheet like that 10 times out of 10.
 

ACC1224

Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
Aug 19, 2002
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They would have to match and then look to move him at some point. If he is looking to leave the Leafs will accommodate him.
 
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Puckstuff

Registered User
May 12, 2010
11,139
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The leafs should do some some legal cap circumvention.

Signs Nylander 1 year @ 15 million
Next year Sign Nylander to 8 years, 40 million = 5 million per.
Total = 55 million / 9 = 6.1 million per season.

But we get nylander for the long haul at only a 5 million cap hit.
 

mammothCacti

Registered User
Feb 19, 2018
389
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not true they have the right to match and as Nylander would be an RFA, he would be beholden to the Leafs to sign a matching offer
NHL CBA FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I'm actually right there, the Offer Sheet itself is a contract that needs to be signed.

If the CLUB recieves the offer sheet from the PLAYER then they will either have to match or be compensated.

The situation I'm talking about is giving Nylander the option to sign the Offer Sheet initially or another regular contract. As far as I know that's legal.

Either way the player actually has to sign the contract set above before proceeding.
 

Zegs2sendhelp

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Doubt it would happen... contenders don't realistically have the money to do so... bad teams, its a very risky move... if any of those picks end up lottery picks starts to look like a really bad move.

I wonder if a team like buffalo would be wiling to make that move tho… you add nylander + the other adds you've made this year and that roster starts to look pretty good.
 

airbus220

Registered User
Feb 19, 2012
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Why spam the main board with Leafs only threads.

Leafs fans should use their own board for this.
 

Fables

Registered User
Apr 27, 2015
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157
Why spam the main board with Leafs only threads.

Leafs fans should use their own board for this.

Well it's slow summer and the Karlsson saga seems to be on hold, Tavares found his home in Toronto, Kovy was signed and Trouba as well through arbitration so Leafs signing their three young stars is maybe the most intresting remaining summer topic also for non-leaf fans...

Seems quite clear everyone is for matching the theoretical offer sheet and in the worst case scenario later move Nylander if needed for any reason...which makes sense.
 
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Fables

Registered User
Apr 27, 2015
140
157
Well it's slow summer and the Karlsson saga seems to be on hold, Tavares found his home in Toronto, Kovy was signed and Trouba as well through arbitration so Leafs signing their three young stars is maybe the most intresting remaining summer topic also for non-leaf fans...

Seems quite clear everyone is for matching the theoretical offer sheet and in the worst case scenario later move Nylander if needed for any reason...which makes sense.

ps.
Like said above I'm not leafs fan just generally interested.

Also hurt my foot a little bit two days ago and I have been stuck inside and having too much time to browse hockey news.
 

The Podium

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
22,958
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Nylander is the least likely of the 3 to be signed to an OS. As a player he is not good enough to receive a huge money offer from contending teams (which are usually tight to the cap).

If a bottom feeder or bubble team offer Nylander a contract within 1-2 mill of Toronto, it is very likely he stays with the contender to try to win a cup.

If a bottom feeder or bubble team tries to OS, I'd imagine it would have to be for significantly more money than Toronto is willing to offer in order for Nylander to sign. With the new draft lottery system, the Leafs will gladly take the multiple, likely high, 1st round picks with high odds for 1, 2, or 3rd overall (potentially multiple).
 

therealkoho

Him/Leaf/fan
Jul 10, 2009
17,091
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Why spam the main board with Leafs only threads.

Leafs fans should use their own board for this.

you should maybe go tell that guy who started the crosby thread
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/sidney-crosby-defensive-awareness.2522183/

or the Draisatl thread
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/leon-draisaitl-the-most-underrated-player-in-the-nhl.2521493/

or the https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/is-tarasenko-a-future-hof.2522283/

or the https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...-roster-makeover-in-the-next-2-years.2521495/

if you get my drift

obviously people want to discuss those things or at the very least want to hear outside opinions, so cool yer jets
 

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