Nylander contract talk VI

[57 Years No Cup]

You may be right but I did a quick, back-of-the-envelope calculation - I am sure any number of you will tell me why I am wrong, but next year the Leafs will have $30M in cap space for Matthews, Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, Nylander, Josh Leivo, Ron Hainsey, a back-up goalie and Jake Gardiner. Suppose they replace Johnsson, Josh Leivo, Ron Hainsey, a back-up goalie and Jake Gardiner with spare pieces for about $1M each or a total of $5M. Then you figure Matthews and Marner get $20M between them, which is probably on the low side. That means only $5M for Kapanen and Nylander. If that analysis is right, the Leafs may not have room for a long-term deal for Nylander.

Great username. Your calcs may be off a bit, but his is why I think Gardiner will not be back.

 

[Bomber0104]

Best thing the Leafs coaches and management can do to get Nylander to sign is come out of the gate strong with the best roster possible.

Make him and his camp realize that he isn't the difference between a win and a loss.

 

[kb]

You may be right but I did a quick, back-of-the-envelope calculation - I am sure any number of you will tell me why I am wrong, but next year the Leafs will have $30M in cap space for Matthews, Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, Nylander, Josh Leivo, Ron Hainsey, a back-up goalie and Jake Gardiner. Suppose they replace Johnsson, Josh Leivo, Ron Hainsey, a back-up goalie and Jake Gardiner with spare pieces for about $1M each or a total of $5M. Then you figure Matthews and Marner get $20M between them, which is probably on the low side. That means only $5M for Kapanen and Nylander. If that analysis is right, the Leafs may not have room for a long-term deal for Nylander.

Almost 31 million, plus the cap escalator (3-4 million), plus they can use Horton's LTIR. So low end, say $39 million available. I say that even giving Willy $6.75-7, Matthews $11, Marner $7.75-8, Gardiner $6, leaves about $7 to 7.5 million for Johnsson, Kapanen, a D (which might be internal), and a backup goalie.

It's tight, but doable.

 

[BlueForever75]

You may be right but I did a quick, back-of-the-envelope calculation - I am sure any number of you will tell me why I am wrong, but next year the Leafs will have $30M in cap space for Matthews, Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson, Nylander, Josh Leivo, Ron Hainsey, a back-up goalie and Jake Gardiner. Suppose they replace Johnsson, Josh Leivo, Ron Hainsey, a back-up goalie and Jake Gardiner with spare pieces for about $1M each or a total of $5M. Then you figure Matthews and Marner get $20M between them, which is probably on the low side. That means only $5M for Kapanen and Nylander. If that analysis is right, the Leafs may not have room for a long-term deal for Nylander.

They will have about 24-25 million of cap space after Nylander signs this season.

Hainsey and Gardiner are as good as gone, they will be replaced by cheaper options like Llijgren, Rosen, Borgman, Holl and Oz if they are still in the organization.

As for the forwards, Leivo, Johnsson, and Kapanen will depend on how they produce this coming season. If they produce as expected I can see bridge deals at a lower cost like we did for Brown and Hyman.

With Matthews and Marner coming in at the 19-20 million range combined we would have 4-5 million to spend on those players. You can fit 2 of the 3 in but not all 3 if they are asking for 1.5-2.5 million a season per. Players like Grundstrom, Bracco, Moore, Marchment, etc... with the Marlies will need to step in hopefully. Or possibly some cheap signings like we did with Ennis, Jooris and Lindholm this season.

This of course also doesnt take into consideration Horton's contract that we can stash if we want to. And the cap possibly going up once again.

 

[Notsince67]

I've actually been saying the same thing. In the end, I'm fine with both routes. But there's absolutely some merit to what you say. We are very fond of talking about building a team that can challenge for a long, long time going forward through a smart process. Eliminating the risk for awful late contracts while still retaining talent should be part of that. I honestly think that your scenario with the 32 year old Willy might be a bit pessimistic even. Best case scenario is Joe Thornton, having him sign subsequent deals with decent money but short term.

Lewis Gross was Michael's agent as well. No doubt there is communication going on

 

[Caroline Says ll]

If you say so....

I did say so yes. A seven game stretch is not sufficient to make any claims or judgments on a player, especially when the majority of the team was lacking for most of the series.

Does Matthews production get used against him in regard to the Boston series when he negotiates?

I could look at the beginning of the season when Mitch Marner for the first 4 months was lacking in production and drive and had one of the hottest finishes to a season. Will that slow start be used against Marner, that he took a majority of the season off?

All this "me first willy" and people questioning Nylanders work ethic and drive because of a contract dispute is asinine. The team is doing as they should in trying to get Nylander to sign a long term, cap friendly amount which will probably in the end pay him far less than what he will end up deserving. Nylander knows that, and that is not an easy thing to sign as you can cite that he has not surpassed 21 goals, but as we all know his minutes have been held back just as Matthews minutes have been held back. His powerplay time just as Matthews and Marner is significantly lower than other teams top three forwards which reduced their possible production.

 

[Notsince67]

They will have about 24-25 million of cap space after Nylander signs this season.

Hainsey and Gardiner are as good as gone, they will be replaced by cheaper options like Llijgren, Rosen, Borgman, Holl and Oz if they are still in the organization.

As for the forwards, Leivo, Johnsson, and Kapanen will depend on how they produce this coming season. If they produce as expected I can see bridge deals at a lower cost like we did for Brown and Hyman.

With Matthews and Marner coming in at the 19-20 million range combined we would have 4-5 million to spend on those players. You can fit 2 of the 3 in but not all 3 if they are asking for 1.5-2.5 million a season per. Players like Grundstrom, Bracco, Moore, Marchment, etc... with the Marlies will need to step in hopefully. Or possibly some cheap signings like we did with Ennis, Jooris and Lindholm this season.

This of course also doesnt take into consideration Horton's contract that we can stash if we want to. And the cap possibly going up once again.

Can't see it happening. More likely Zaitsev gets moved before his NMC kicks in than to lose 1 of 2 remaining defenseman veterans

 

[kb]

They will have about 24-25 million of cap space after Nylander signs this season.

Hainsey and Gardiner are as good as gone, they will be replaced by cheaper options like Llijgren, Rosen, Borgman, Holl and Oz if they are still in the organization.

As for the forwards, Leivo, Johnsson, and Kapanen will depend on how they produce this coming season. If they produce as expected I can see bridge deals at a lower cost like we did for Brown and Hyman.

With Matthews and Marner coming in at the 19-20 million range combined we would have 4-5 million to spend on those players. You can fit 2 of the 3 in but not all 3 if they are asking for 1.5-2.5 million a season per. Players like Grundstrom, Bracco, Moore, Marchment, etc... with the Marlies will need to step in hopefully. Or possibly some cheap signings like we did with Ennis, Jooris and Lindholm this season.

This of course also doesnt take into consideration Horton's contract that we can stash if we want to. And the cap possibly going up once again.

The last sentence is why I think they will be able to keep everyone.

 

[Da Cool Rula]

lots of flaming but little to no response to my post lol , maybe people can explain to me what i said wrong when comparing how some are flaming Willie

-is not JT the 2nd highest paid player in the league ? and when has he ever been considered the 2nd best player in the game ?

-does not his salary impact , just like Willies how we can spend other players ?

-did JT not have the option to sign a similar cap hit as Stamkos thereby taking a team friendly sub comparable contract leaving more money on the table to sign other players ?

-if people are upset with Willie's dad supposedly being involved in negotiations shouldn't they also be upset that JT's fiancee or is okay that JT had his fiancee involved in the pitches because they believe she helped influence him to sign in Toronto ?

-why are some fans upset that Willie may or may not be asking (no one knows what is being asked/offered) above his market value while sitting out to thereby using the only leverage he has while they have no problem with JT using his leverage to get more than his comparables ?

and just to add

i'm fully aware of the differences between negotiating with a ufa/rfa but at the end of the day when the contracts signed it doesn't affect our cap any differently

So are saying 8.5m im Tbay is worth the same as 8.5m in Toronto?

 

[Walshy7]

Can't see it happening. More likely Zaitsev gets moved before his NMC kicks in than to lose 1 of 2 remaining defenseman veterans

you think so? Zaitsev is RH and we don't even have a full quota of those, meanwhile on the left side we have Dermott, Borgman, Rosen and even Marincin all at differing levels of nhl readiness, not to mention Hainsey is a LHD. We have Zaitsev, Carrick, Ozhiaganov and holl NHL ready on the right side. Gardiner cant play his off side and is going to cost a lot of $$ I think he is gone.

 

[BlueForever75]

you think so? Zaitsev is RH and we don't even have a full quota of those, meanwhile on the left side we have Dermott, Borgman, Rosen and even Marincin all at differing levels of nhl readiness, not to mention Hainsey is a LHD. We have Zaitsev, Carrick, Ozhiaganov and holl NHL ready on the right side. Gardiner cant play his off side and is going to cost a lot of $$ I think he is gone.

Why cant Gardiner play his off side? Has it ever been attempted cause I don't recall!

 

[Da Cool Rula]

everyone else wasn't offering more

-there's no way T-Bay had the cap space nor the desire to piss off there core who signed actual sub comparable deals

-Dallas wasn't going to pay him considerably more than Benn and also made Seguin sign for a similar cap hit

-nothing was said of Boston's offer

i heard 2 rumors and they're just that rumors since nothing has confirmed by the teams

-SJ 13m
-NYI 11 x 8 and 11.25 x 8

this being said my point wasn't he may have been offered more but

1) he could have signed for less than his comparables like Stamkos did leaving more cap for the rest of the team

2) being a little overpaid at 11m compared to being grossly over paid at 13m isn't a team friendly sub comparable contract

3) it doesn't matter whether a player is a ufa or a rfa , once the deal is signed it affects the cap the same and it affects the ability for the team to sign other players exactly the same

Who a player trusts to include in his decision making process is his business regardless of whether his his father a former player or his fiancee , i just found it strange how upset people are at one as opposed to the other , at least on our board

anyway i appreciate you responding , at least to a couple of my points unlike some others who just choose to flame without any response to my post

Stop using Stamkos. 8.5m in a good tax situation is not related to being team friendly. He would never have taken 8.5m if he played in Toronto. SMH.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

I did say so yes. A seven game stretch is not sufficient to make any claims or judgments on a player, especially when the majority of the team was lacking for most of the series.

Does Matthews production get used against him in regard to the Boston series when he negotiates?

I could look at the beginning of the season when Mitch Marner for the first 4 months was lacking in production and drive and had one of the hottest finishes to a season. Will that slow start be used against Marner, that he took a majority of the season off?

All this "me first willy" and people questioning Nylanders work ethic and drive because of a contract dispute is asinine. The team is doing as they should in trying to get Nylander to sign a long term, cap friendly amount which will probably in the end pay him far less than what he will end up deserving. Nylander knows that, and that is not an easy thing to sign as you can cite that he has not surpassed 21 goals, but as we all know his minutes have been held back just as Matthews minutes have been held back. His powerplay time just as Matthews and Marner is significantly lower than other teams top three forwards which reduced their possible production.

You're ass-uming that the criticism of Nylander's compete level and lack of physicality is only based on that seven game playoffs. No one has said that, however they, and I, hold out his performance in that playoff series as an egregious example of said behaviour.

On to Matthews. He has shown up to camp determined to be better and by all accounts is flying around out there. Even Babcock has said this.

OTOH, Nylander is sitting at home in Sweden holding out.

 

[Notsince67]

you think so? Zaitsev is RH and we don't even have a full quota of those, meanwhile on the left side we have Dermott, Borgman, Rosen and even Marincin all at differing levels of nhl readiness, not to mention Hainsey is a LHD. We have Zaitsev, Carrick, Ozhiaganov and holl NHL ready on the right side. Gardiner cant play his off side and is going to cost a lot of $$ I think he is gone.

This is what I think.
Rielly is stretched on the first pair. He is a good defensemen but up until now is average at best. This isn't to disparage him. IMO he is the best Dman on the leafs who is getting better every year (he is still very young for a dman). He gets tough minutes but he isn't elite or even very good in his role.
Gardiner is a very good second pairing dman. Great numbers and really as good as you will get here
Dermott is an elite 3rd pairing dman. Moving him to the second pair right now will be a bit of a stretch without a decent partner.
Zaitsev aspires to be a good 3rd pair (he isn't yet). Zaitsev cannot play a second pair without a really good partner. Dermott will get there but he isn't the guy now. He will get eaten alive.
I could be wrong but I recall reading a while ago that Gard was willing to take $6MM x6. That is probably close to a $1MM discount from what he can command if he matches his points from last year.
Gardiner is in the tail end of his prime years but his performance seems solid and he will not degrade significantly over the 6. Zaitsev needs to get a lot better to be good enough to be in the top 4 but he is already 26 years old and it is highly unlikely for a player of his age to improve enough to do it.
Zaitsev makes 4.5MM. Next year he has a modified NMC. If Jake only costs 1.5MM more, whose salary do you really want to shed?

 

[Notsince67]

Why cant Gardiner play his off side? Has it ever been attempted cause I don't recall!

Because a second pair is almost as important as a first pair. The leafs have zero players ready to handle those minutes. Dermott is borderline but only with the help of a solid 2nd pair partner which we don't have.

 

[paulhiggins]

Oh man the posts are getting worse by the day. This is the new worst in thread congratulations

Don't let my attempt at humour ruin your day!

This is a business and not being run by the spendthrift Dave Nonis. If there is any doubt at all about an investment of tens of millions of dollars the prudent thing to do is reduce the risk, watch and wait. If there is the slightest chance he may not physically compete when the going gets tough or there could be other issues, you don't throw 40 or 50 million dollars at it all at once. Especially when the team is unbalanced.

 

[Caroline Says ll]

You're ass-uming that the criticism of Nylander's compete level and lack of physicality is only based on that seven game playoffs. No one has said that, however they, and I, hold out his performance in that playoff series as an egregious example of said behaviour.

On to Matthews. He has shown up to camp determined to be better and by all accounts is flying around out there. Even Babcock has said this.

OTOH, Nylander is sitting at home in Sweden holding out.

So now it is Nylander regularly has a lacking compete level and that the playoff series is just a perfect example?

Although I will say that Nylander is by no means gritty, he does not shy away from playing the cycle, he will battle for pucks along the boards and I do not think he avoids contact. I think implying that somehow he generally floats is dishonest to his play.

This whole narrative you are constructing that now Matthews is atoning for his play by performing in camp and Nylander is continuing on being selfish and showing his true colours by not signing and performing is ridiculous.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

So now it is Nylander regularly has a lacking compete level and that the playoff series is just a perfect example?

Although I will say that Nylander is by no means gritty, he does not shy away from playing the cycle, he will battle for pucks along the boards and I do not think he avoids contact. I think implying that somehow he generally floats is dishonest to his play.

This whole narrative you are constructing that now Matthews is atoning for his play by performing in camp and Nylander is continuing on being selfish and showing his true colours by not signing and performing is ridiculous.

If you say so. After all, your opinion trumps all others.

 

[1specter]

So are saying 8.5m im Tbay is worth the same as 8.5m in Toronto?

1. Tax isn't as straightforward as 'apply x provincial/state and federal rate'; for rich athletes who travel a lot there are various loopholes and ways to minimize taxes payable

2. Playing in Canada gives the advantage of exchange rate since contracts are paid in USD

3. While Toronto has higher cost of living, TB has nowhere near the same endorsement opportunities. Stars get treated like royalty here and will milk all the sponsorships and endorsements possible

 

[Notsince67]

So now it is Nylander regularly has a lacking compete level and that the playoff series is just a perfect example?

Although I will say that Nylander is by no means gritty, he does not shy away from playing the cycle, he will battle for pucks along the boards and I do not think he avoids contact. I think implying that somehow he generally floats is dishonest to his play.

This whole narrative you are constructing that now Matthews is atoning for his play by performing in camp and Nylander is continuing on being selfish and showing his true colours by not signing and performing is ridiculous.

This is the leafs forum not the Sabre forum. I'm glad Alex is doing so well. Willy on the other hand absolutely does this. It is his major flaw. If he corrects this, he would be spectacular.

 

[Walshy7]

Why cant Gardiner play his off side? Has it ever been attempted cause I don't recall!

well id imagine if he could he would have been tried before no? its not an easy thing to play the offside

 

[ZEBROA]

Hurdy wurdy Nylander bork bork bork murt murt

 

[Notsince67]

Hurdy wurdy Nylander bork bork bork murt murt

was playing with google translate:

Sluta vara girig, Willy


edit. filters caught it as a bad word. the first Swedish word was: s_l_u_t_a
Can't imagine what it thought I said

 

[Nylanderthal]

he doesn't but this new "cap percentage" argument is all the rage now

and just so everyone knows the cap percentage argument is all smoke and mirrors and lathered in horsepuckey

It gets even weaker when you compare extensions signed a summer early. Ehlers contract starts now, you don’t think that the jets and ehlers agent didn’t negotiate that deal with this years cap in mind? I know they didn’t know exactly where it was going up to, but you had to know it was going to be higher than last years with the Vegas team coming in and providing extra revenue.
I see it as an argument when comparing older contracts that were signed under significantly different economic conditions. Say Filip Forsbergs deal for example. That was signed a few years back, but he’s also a better player now and was a more accomplished player at the time of his signing.

 

[Liminality]

Cap percentage arguments are invalid now? Man this thread can't close soon enough.