Player Discussion Nylander After the Contract

[helloconga]

10m was my value. 11.5 was an overpay

 

[hamzarocks]

Nylander has insane expectations starting next year.

He can finish a 85 pt player and be elite for a 7M caphit

At 11.5M he has to be a top 3 winger in the league. Any hate he gets for unproductive stints will be justified and deserved like Matthews, Marner and tavares get/have gotten

 

[notDatsyuk]

That is exactly it.


find a buyer for that new contract and sell fast! f*** the optics. Just get him out of here before it is too late.

Certainly you could get a lot more in a trade for Willy at 11.5 than you could get for Mitch even at 11, but if you trade him you've only got Matty to build around.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Yeah against the toothless Sharks. He'll get it back but it is funny that he hardly missed a beat before signing and then after signing and feasting on Shark meat for one game, he goes cold for 3 games.

Still generating chances for both himself and his teammates. A couple of games where Bert and JT couldn't bury chances, and one game with different linemates, one whom he'd never played with before. Plus he's been doing a lot more PKing lately.

I think panicking after three games is a bit premature.

 

[DarkKnight]

Have to be honest, I feel we will regret this contract, barring a Cup this spring. He’s an amazing talent, but he’s clearly punched above his weight this year and now he has to stay there just to justify his cap hit. Nylander has flew below the salary cap radar with his last deal, the other three take the brunt, Marner the most. It all changes next year.

 

[thewave]

Should just run the Leafs by polls.

Have to be honest, I feel we will regret this contract, barring a Cup this spring. He’s an amazing talent, but he’s clearly punched above his weight this year and now he has to stay there just to justify his cap hit. Nylander has flew below the salary cap radar with his last deal, the other three take the brunt, Marner the most. It all changes next year.

We the fans may regret it but the actuaries are probably saying having him on the team leads to more profits than not having him.

 

[ToneDog]

Still generating chances for both himself and his teammates. A couple of games where Bert and JT couldn't bury chances, and one game with different linemates, one whom he'd never played with before. Plus he's been doing a lot more PKing lately.

I think panicking after three games is a bit premature.

Where did you see me panicking when I clearly said "He'll get it back"?

 

[ToneDog]

Have to be honest, I feel we will regret this contract, barring a Cup this spring. He’s an amazing talent, but he’s clearly punched above his weight this year and now he has to stay there just to justify his cap hit. Nylander has flew below the salary cap radar with his last deal, the other three take the brunt, Marner the most. It all changes next year.

Could not find a trade this past summer (although Chevy managed to get a haul for PLD) and did not see anything better becoming available July 1st so he caved and gave them everything they asked for and his lunch money. Odds are we do not win a SC, this year or next but the good thing is Tavares only has one remaining year at $11m cap hit.

 

[NVious]

The contract in a vacuum isn't the problem, just like signing Tavares wasn't the problem (seeing SJ offer 13+, probably 10+ teams would've offered 10 mill+), it's the fact that we've seen what this soft core gets us.

The problem is the core as a whole, not one of their contracts, you need players like Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Tavares to win, just not that particular group together on one team obviously (with the money they're demanding).

 

[ToneDog]

The contract in a vacuum isn't the problem, just like signing Tavares wasn't the problem (seeing SJ offer 13+, probably 10+ teams would've offered 10 mill+), it's the fact that we've seen what this soft core gets us.

The problem is the core as a whole, not one of their contracts, you need players like Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Tavares to win, just not that particular group together on one team obviously (with the money they're demanding).

Imagine Marner and Tavares out and M Tkachuk and Kucherov/Makar/Hedman in. I'd like our chances in April/May/June much better.

 

[34]

Nylander has insane expectations starting next year.

He can finish a 85 pt player and be elite for a 7M caphit

At 11.5M he has to be a top 3 winger in the league. Any hate he gets for unproductive stints will be justified and deserved like Matthews, Marner and tavares get/have gotten

Be prepared to be disappointed, I fully expect Nylander to drop back to way below a ppg.

 

[ToneDog]

Be prepared to be disappointed, I fully expect Nylander to drop back to way below a ppg.

I've never been a Nylander fanboy but some reason, I do not agree. I see him being a 90-110 point player going forward.

 

[Arzak]

Be prepared to be disappointed, I fully expect Nylander to drop back to way below a ppg.

Help me find Mitch Marner or JT pls. Nylander is making $6.9M this year

 

[Dragao6]

The contract in a vacuum isn't the problem, just like signing Tavares wasn't the problem (seeing SJ offer 13+, probably 10+ teams would've offered 10 mill+), it's the fact that we've seen what this soft core gets us.

The problem is the core as a whole, not one of their contracts, you need players like Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Tavares to win, just not that particular group together on one team obviously (with the money they're demanding).

I don’t disagree with what ur saying
The prob for me is tavares only wanted to come to the leafs so if 10 other teams offered same shouldn’t matter
He should have came with a discount.
I wanted him bad, at time for me 10M was max not just because of him as player but I knew this would start what resulted with the magic 3
Now we’re stuck with This BS for minimum 8 more years
Whatever I’m truly starting to not care anymore. None of us can do anything about but complain on here once in a awhile
Marner will get paid, we will keep losing early in playoffs
Life goes on

 

[Stephen]

I've never been a Nylander fanboy but some reason, I do not agree. I see him being a 90-110 point player going forward.

I think he fluctuates between 90-100 for the good years, and I say this as a big fan.

Just feels like the psychological makeup of our Big 4 guys is they let the foot off the gas and don't have that extra gear to sustain a scoring title pursuit (Art Ross) and go for stretches with dysfunctional PP's and stuff like that... just sucks that we see old Willie the week we give him the new deal. The timing of this down turn cannot piss me off more.

 

[ToneDog]

I think he fluctuates between 90-100 for the good years, and I say this as a big fan.

Just feels like the psychological makeup of our Big 4 guys is they let the foot off the gas and don't have that extra gear to sustain a scoring title pursuit (Art Ross) and go for stretches with dysfunctional PP's and stuff like that... just sucks that we see old Willie the week we give him the new deal. The timing of this down turn cannot piss me off more.

Be prepared to be disappointed this week unless they turn it up. Good thing is these guys win games they have no business winning. The bad is they lose games they have no business losing.

 

[Drytoast]

11.5 mil players rarely do this. Because 11.5 mil players are suppose to be top 5 point getters in the league.

Unless you play for Toronto, in which cause 11.5 mil players are whomever has nice hair I guess.

Doesn't go in the corners, Willy just f***ed us for the next 8 years.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

Yeah it's strange that we have so many glaring issues with the D , goalies , management and supporting cast that all it takes is a few quiet games and you guys are dumping shade all over the 6th highest scoring player so far. Sheesh. We'd be dogmeat without Willy this year. End of story.

 

[Menzinger]

One day we'll realize it's caphit % that matters not aav. The salary cap of 2031 is going to VERY different than it is in 2024,

 

[hamzarocks]

View attachment 803863

Help me find Mitch Marner or JT pls. Nylander is making $6.9M this year

This isnt about this year

He can have 20 pts the rest of the year and he will out play his 7M cap

The next 4 years he has to be a 100-110 pt player.

He makes more than Pasta, Kaprizov, Kucherov, tkachuk, rantanen, Drai, marner next season

He will be expected to dominate his peers next year. A 1st or 2nd all NHL team is a must for next year.

 

[Drytoast]

One day we'll realize it's caphit % that matters not aav. The salary cap of 2031 is going to VERY different than it is in 2024,

the performance of a player in 2024 is going to be VERY different to that of the same player in 2031. This is PEAK Willy. It's all down hill from here.

 

[Confucius]

Nylander has insane expectations starting next year.

He can finish a 85 pt player and be elite for a 7M caphit

At 11.5M he has to be a top 3 winger in the league. Any hate he gets for unproductive stints will be justified and deserved like Matthews, Marner and tavares get/have gotten

Blame the people who dished out the cash,

 

[hamzarocks]

One day we'll realize it's caphit % that matters not aav. The salary cap of 2031 is going to VERY different than it is in 2024,

Nylander is 2-3% to high for cap % or 2-3M AAV.

11.5 /87.5 = 13.14%

He has been a guy in the 10-11% range his the last 4 year of this deal outside of 35 games this season.

0.105 × 87.5 = ~9.19M which is around fair value for his past historical production

UFAs almost never see increases in production/maintaining during their final big deals. There are a few guys who did this (Patty Kane, Panarin) but more examples of the opposite (Toews, Tavares, Gaudreau, Richards, Huberdeau, etc)

We gave him a deal he wasnt playing up to from ages 23-28. Expecting ages 29-36 to deliver 13.1% of cap value is impossible.

Nylanders greed will turn the market against him. He is going to be the next Mitchell Marner.

Blame the people who dished out the cash,

Treliving + Shanny absolutely screwed up not initiating a retool in the summer

Nylander should have gone at the draft and we could have been in a position to actually contend when JT disapears.

Nylander instead is going to give us 80-90 pts and 9M value at 11.5M hit. He i going to be on the John tavares path to disdain amongst the fanbase

 

[Darcy Tucker]

Just feels like the psychological makeup of our Big 4 guys is they let the foot off the gas and don't have that extra gear to sustain a scoring title pursuit (Art Ross) and go for stretches with dysfunctional PP's and stuff like that...

Yup this is a very good point. Hit the nail on the head with this analysis. That's why you've got to respect players like Kucherov , Draisaitl and P. Kane. They are stone cold killers inside and despite people labelling them one dimensional or power play merchants they have got it done in the playoffs and have that inner will to get everything they can out of the opposition. Don't get me started on the shortcomings of our stars. They are a joke in comparison.

 

[Menzinger]

the performance of a player in 2024 is going to be VERY different to that of the same player in 2031. This is PEAK Willy. It's all down hill from here.

Maybe, maybe not. His father had some of his strongest seasons at 33-35 years of age.

Nylander is 2-3% to high for cap % or 2-3M AAV.

11.5 /87.5 = 13.14%

He has been a guy in the 10-11% range his the last 4 year of this deal outside of 35 games this season.

0.105 × 87.5 = ~9.19M which is around fair value for his past historical production

UFAs almost never see increases in production/maintaining during their final big deals. There are a few guys who did this (Patty Kane, Panarin) but more examples of the opposite (Toews, Tavares, Gaudreau, Richards, Huberdeau, etc)

We gave him a deal he wasnt playing up to from ages 23-28. Expecting ages 29-36 to deliver 13.1% of cap value is impossible.

Nylanders greed will turn the market against him. He is going to be the next Mitchell Marner.


Treliving + Shanny absolutely screwed up not initiating a retool in the summer

Nylander should have gone at the draft and we could have been in a position to actually contend when JT disapears.

Nylander instead is going to give us 80-90 pts and 9M value at 11.5M hit. He i going to be on the John tavares path to disdain amongst the fanbase

I think your comparables are on the lower side. He was likely heading to 11.5-12.5 % of the cap before the season started, his production so far.has changed things (though as stated earlier in the thread it's still an overpay from the Leafs imo)

And 2-3 seasons from now his aav will probably be below 12.5% of the cap.