Player Discussion Nylander After the Contract

[saffronleaf]

I respectfully disagree about this starting with Tavares. He was offered the exact same or more by several teams, it was his true market value, though still a terrible signing for us to spend 11m on a 2nd line centre. Imho it started with Nylander's previous deal, where he sat for 2 months until he got about 500k per season above his market value. Then Matthews and Marner would not take market value either. I think we would have been happy to pay them market value but they made it all about squeeezing the team for all they could. Second round same story. Wouldn't be surprised if Micheal Nylander convinced the other 2 to take as much as they could. It's not that hard to convince people to take more money. Dissappointing to see it happen this second go around, considering how it has affected our playoff success (lack of obviously).

Yes I heard matthews was about to sign for 8 mill but then Michael gave him a call and put shambles in his brain

 

[Sundinisagod]

I don't think UFA/RFA had anything to do with it.

If you pay a 2C $11M, why wouldn't a couple of top line players look for comparable?

Matthews was going to get 11+ based off his closest comparables at the time, McDavid and Eichel. No idea still why rfa winger Marner got 10.9?

 

[Notsince67]

Sure, Willy was on for a lot of Tampa's goals, but at least two were situations where he came on for Mitch and had no chance to get involved in the play. +/- is not a great stat, particularly in very small samples.

Of course this is a thread about Willy post-signing, where he's still one of the best players in the league, but I guess you missed that.

Plus minus is adequate when context is added. When he isn't facing top competition, how do you justify a discrepancy based on a mantra technicalitity. Willy was effectively facing depth players. I like the threat Willy poses but when it comes to Tampa, you can't put lipstick on a pig.

 

[thusk]

Plus minus is adequate when context is added. When he isn't facing top competition, how do you justify a discrepancy based on a mantra technicalitity. Willy was effectively facing depth players. I like the threat Willy poses but when it comes to Tampa, you can't put lipstick on a pig.

exactly context is extremely important thats why you need to watch what happening... 4 of those goal against tampa was 100% nylander lack of work.

1- nylander was 1v1 with Stamkos in front of the net and giordano took killorn who came back in front of the net... Nylander stop playing and/or froze and let stamkos all alone in front of the net.

2- Raddysh skate behind the net and the only thing nylander had to do is cutting the middle of the boxes but he did absolutly nothing so Raddysh got all space of the world took all the space in the middle of the boxes and scored

3- 1v1 coverage with nylander having positioning advantage but cirelli just skating and nylander let him go pretty easily.

4- bouncing puck every leafs player go and fighting in front the net to recover it except nylander who just skating outside of the boxes. If he go where he should go ( blue line) and working with his teammate to get the puck back this goal would not happen because its exavtly where nylander should be the puck will bouncing.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Plus minus is adequate when context is added. When he isn't facing top competition, how do you justify a discrepancy based on a mantra technicalitity. Willy was effectively facing depth players. I like the threat Willy poses but when it comes to Tampa, you can't put lipstick on a pig.

My point exactly - when you're looking at a very small sample size, context is important.

By the way, it has been shown that quality of linemates is more critical than quality of opposition, which of course changes constantly through every game.

 

[notDatsyuk]

exactly context is extremely important thats why you need to watch what happening... 4 of those goal against tampa was 100% nylander lack of work.

1- nylander was 1v1 with Stamkos in front of the net and giordano took killorn who came back in front of the net... Nylander stop playing and/or froze and let stamkos all alone in front of the net.

View attachment 845456

2- Raddysh skate behind the net and the only thing nylander had to do is cutting the middle of the boxes but he did absolutly nothing so Raddysh got all space of the world took all the space in the middle of the boxes and scored

View attachment 845454


3- 1v1 coverage with nylander having positioning advantage but cirelli just skating and nylander let him go pretty easily.

View attachment 845453

4- bouncing puck every leafs player go and fighting in front the net to recover it except nylander who just skating outside of the boxes. If he go where he should go ( blue line) and working with his teammate to get the puck back this goal would not happen because its exavtly where nylander should be the puck will bouncing.

View attachment 845452

In 1, 2, and 4 there are other Leafs (in 1 and 2, two of them), not covering anyone, and in better position to cover the scorer.

Why do you always find odd ways to blame Nylander for everything?

 

[thusk]

In 1, 2, and 4 there are other Leafs (in 1 and 2, two of them), not covering anyone, and in better position to cover the scorer.

Why do you always find odd ways to blame Nylander for everything?

goal 1 it not a coverage its a battle in front of the net to win puck battle

for the 2nd no nylander was the only one... kerfoot and rielly pressure hagel, Schenn was covering killorn and tavares was the guy who pressure dman on neutral zone. Nylander was the only player who slept on this play sorry.

and 4 yes gustafsson had been slow to come back in position but in any case that explain why you stop playing and let a guy where youre the only player around him all alone in front of the net.

 

[Notsince67]

My point exactly - when you're looking at a very small sample size, context is important.

By the way, it has been shown that quality of linemates is more critical than quality of opposition, which of course changes constantly through every game.

One can make statistical arguments on averages (a big problem with the application of stats IMO but that is a long story), but it is hard to argue the effect of being matched against guys like Kuch & Point most of the night. Context on the context I suppose. Outlier matchup have greater plus and minus weight that appears inoccuous in aggregate.

 

[notDatsyuk]

goal 1 it not a coverage its a battle in front of the net to win puck battle

for the 2nd no nylander was the only one... kerfoot and rielly pressure hagel, Schenn was covering killorn and tavares was the guy who pressure dman on neutral zone. Nylander was the only player who slept on this play sorry.

and 4 yes gustafsson had been slow to come back in position but in any case that explain why you stop playing and let a guy where youre the only player around him all alone in front of the net.

If 1 is a battle in front of the net, you posted the wrong screenshot! There's a Leaf between the puck and Stamcos and another between Stamcos and the net.

2 there are two Leafs standing alone (covering each other) in the slot, while Willy is properly positioned to cover his man, the left D.

4 there are four Lightning and five Leafs in the screenshot. The out of frame player is the left D, which is Willy's man. Why not blame the player not covering his man?

 

[thusk]

If 1 is a battle in front of the net, you posted the wrong screenshot! There's a Leaf between the puck and Stamcos and another between Stamcos and the net.

2 there are two Leafs standing alone (covering each other) in the slot, while Willy is properly positioned to cover his man, the left D.

4 there are four Lightning and five Leafs in the screenshot. The out of frame player is the left D, which is Willy's man. Why not blame the player not covering his man?

because its hockey, you will miss play, making mistake and have to repair your mistake. thats hockey.

4- more player working to win rebound battle in front of the net, higher your chance to finish with the puck is higher. Just skating outside of the boxes, you dont help your team at all....

2 rule #1 of every defensive system no exception, protecting the front of the net as much as you can and never let a guy going free with the puck in the slot. i never see a defensive system in my life who didn't had that rule, sorry. yeah maybe he was protecting a d, thats doesn't mean it was the right thing to do. The danger came from Raddysh, not the guy he was protecting who was probsbly the less dangerous player on the ice

1- and the guy in front of your net like you said is giordano who will cover killorn coming back in front of the net. he cant protect 2 guy at the same time and could never anticipate than his teammate who let a guy all alone in the slot...rule #1 in hockey protecting the most dangerous player and the slot as much as you can and the fact nylander is a winger doesn't mean he dont have to protect someone in front of the net at time.

 

[notDatsyuk]

because its hockey, you will miss play, making mistake and have to repair your mistake. thats hockey.

4- more player working to win rebound battle in front of the net, higher your chance to finish with the puck is higher. Just skating outside of the boxes, you dont help your team at all....

2 rule #1 of every defensive system no exception, protecting the front of the net as much as you can and never let a guy going free with the puck in the slot. i never see a defensive system in my life who didn't had that rule, sorry. yeah maybe he was protecting a d, thats doesn't mean it was the right thing to do. The danger came from Raddysh, not the guy he was protecting who was probsbly the less dangerous player on the ice

1- and the guy in front of your net like you said is giordano who will cover killorn coming back in front of the net. he cant protect 2 guy at the same time and could never anticipate than his teammate who let a guy all alone in the slot...rule #1 in hockey protecting the most dangerous player and the slot as much as you can and the fact nylander is a winger doesn't mean he dont have to protect someone in front of the net at time.

Joining a scrum instead of covering the open man isn't the way to do it.

I've been playing defence for over 60 years, and used to coach it as well. "Protecting the front of the net" is correct, but what were the two other Leafs (both closer to the front of the net) doing? That applies to both 1 and 2.

One of the biggest problems the Leafs have had in their own end is collapsing too much, and therefore leaving the points open, allowing shots with a lot of players screening the goalie. Don't blame the player who's doing his job right just because someone else isn't doing theirs.

Look at the goals scored by Florida on Monday:
- first two on shots from the point because the wingers collapsed too far, leaving the points open
- third was everyone watching the puck carrier and nobody looking to see who they should take
- fourth was a man advantage.

You need to understand coverages and defensive zone responsibilities a bit better before you critique them.

 

[thusk]

Joining a scrum instead of covering the open man isn't the way to do it.

I've been playing defence for over 60 years, and used to coach it as well. "Protecting the front of the net" is correct, but what were the two other Leafs (both closer to the front of the net) doing? That applies to both 1 and 2.

One of the biggest problems the Leafs have had in their own end is collapsing too much, and therefore leaving the points open, allowing shots with a lot of players screening the goalie. Don't blame the player who's doing his job right just because someone else isn't doing theirs.

Look at the goals scored by Florida on Monday:
- first two on shots from the point because the wingers collapsed too far, leaving the points open
- third was everyone watching the puck carrier and nobody looking to see who they should take
- fourth was a man advantage.

You need to understand coverages and defensive zone responsibilities a bit better before you critique them.

?

on raddysh goal, he didn't had to make a phenomenal play. just had to move for what 5 feet and close the middle, he would npt be out of position to make a play at blue line after... he just did the easy play, stay there and hoping his teammate doing the job...

its the same thing with the 4th goal...skating to the right and came back to the left following absolutly nobody, it should be a new coverage... the reality is he was just waiting than his teammate doing all the work, nothing else...When your start waiting than your teammate working for you, thats where lack of work starting...

yes when you have everything going the right way, its good to cover the D... when you need to choose between a dman who having maybe 5%or less chance to score from long shot or a guy in the slot whos having like 25 to 50 % to score, sorry but the choice should be pretty easy. a least you giving a chance to your goalie to make the play by covering the slot.

 

[notDatsyuk]

?

on raddysh goal, he didn't had to make a phenomenal play. just had to move for what 5 feet and close the middle, he would npt be out of position to make a play at blue line after... he just did the easy play, stay there and hoping his teammate doing the job...

its the same thing with the 4th goal...skating to the right and came back to the left following absolutly nobody, it should be a new coverage... the reality is he was just waiting than his teammate doing all the work, nothing else...When your start waiting than your teammate working for you, thats where lack of work starting...

yes when you have everything going the right way, its good to cover the D... when you need to choose between a dman who having maybe 5%or less chance to score from long shot or a guy in the slot whos having like 25 to 50 % to score, sorry but the choice should be pretty easy. a least you giving a chance to your goalie to make the play by covering the slot.

You're having a very hard time trying to rationalize this, and it's not working.

Teamwork means you have to rely on your teammates to do their job most of the time, so you can do yours. Covering up for them when they make a mistake is good, but that doesn't mean the mistake was yours.

If Nylander had left his position to play someone else's man and the puck had gone back to the D and resulted in a goal, as it did twice Monday, you would just be blaming him anyway (but at least you would be right).

 

[ZEBROA]

Keefe keep draining him by putting him with Tavares. It must feel like that scen i zootropolis.

 

[ToneDog]

For those that think Willie after the contract is close to Willie before the contract.

Before the contract -37 games 21 goals and 33 assists 54 points - 120 points pace
After the contract -39 games 19 goals and 23 assists 42 points - 88 points pace

Total - 76 games 40 goals and 56 assists 96 points - 103.5 points pace

Hopefully pre contract Willie shows up for the playoffs and next 8 years.

88 point Willie is not an $11.5m player. Marner sleepwalks to 88 points.

 

[rumman]

For those that think Willie after the contract is close to Willie before the contract.

Before the contract -37 games 21 goals and 33 assists 54 points - 120 points pace
After the contract -39 games 19 goals and 23 assists 42 points - 88 points pace

Total - 76 games 40 goals and 56 assists 96 points - 103.5 points pace

Hopefully pre contract Willie shows up for the playoffs and next 8 years.

88 point Willie is not an $11.5m player. Marner sleepwalks to 88 points.

anyone who knows anything about Styles knew he couldn't keep that pace going longer than what it took to get a nice payday, good on him, hope he doesn't whine when he gets ripped for not living up to said contract........

 

[Aashir Mallik]

For those that think Willie after the contract is close to Willie before the contract.

Before the contract -37 games 21 goals and 33 assists 54 points - 120 points pace
After the contract -39 games 19 goals and 23 assists 42 points - 88 points pace

Total - 76 games 40 goals and 56 assists 96 points - 103.5 points pace

Hopefully pre contract Willie shows up for the playoffs and next 8 years.

88 point Willie is not an $11.5m player. Marner sleepwalks to 88 points.

That fall off is insane, but expected tbh. Players don’t just “break out” at 27 years old. Nylander is probably gonna be a 85-90 point player for the start of this contract, meaning he will be overpaid be a couple million.

This contract never made sense to me at all. Who tf were we bargaining against to give him 11.5…. That’s over 13 on 7. How he got a dollar over 10 is insane and could turn it into another Tavares-type contract.

 

[Sundinisagod]

anyone who knows anything about Styles knew he couldn't keep that pace going longer than what it took to get a nice payday, good on him, hope he doesn't whine when he gets ripped for not living up to said contract........

He'll just need to maintain a decent enough pace til Marner signs his extension then the focus will be back on Money Mitch.

 

[Menzinger]

That fall off is insane, but expected tbh. Players don’t just “break out” at 27 years old. Nylander is probably gonna be a 85-90 point player for the start of this contract, meaning he will be overpaid be a couple million.

This contract never made sense to me at all. Who tf were we bargaining against to give him 11.5…. That’s over 13 on 7. How he got a dollar over 10 is insane and could turn it into another Tavares-type contract.

I think folks got too locked into certain expected ceilings for Nylanders deal based on outdated numbers. The cap rising has reset numbers for top players and the tiers below them ect.

For example, Panarin had a career year when he was pacing 90 points during his free agency year and got 11.6 mil aav when the cap was under 80 mil back jn 2019. Nylanders getting 11.5 that will start during a season with a cap of 87.7.

Nylanders contract is more in line with what 85-95 point guys are going to be getting than the 100+ points club.

 

[Aashir Mallik]

I think folks got too locked into certain expected ceilings for Nylanders deal based on outdated numbers. The cap rising has reset numbers for top players and the tiers below them ect.

For example, Panarin had a career year when he was pacing 90 points during his free agency year and got 11.6 mil aav when the cap was under 80 mil back jn 2019. Nylanders getting 11.5 that will start during a season with a cap of 87.7.

Nylanders contract is more in line with what 85-95 point guys are going to be getting than the 100+ points club.

idk we will see when players like reinhart sign, but I am not expecting it to be as high as Nylander's contract

Larkin signed for 8.7 last year and he was coming off a ppg season, nylander was only a >100 point player for 33 games at that point, so how does he get 11.5 vs 8.7. So PPG and makes less than 10

aho re-signed this offseason for 9.75, so around 6 months before nylander, and yet nylander got much more. So PPG and makes less than 10

11.5 is what pastrnak got. His down years are nylanders career years... so they shouldn't be in the same bracket.

Panarin's stats came in a much lower scoring environment he was 20th in league scoring on a pretty mediocre scoring. Moreover, his expectations were to be better on the rangers as he was away from torts and a lower scoring environment, and not surprisingly his production boomed to a >100 point player.

Nylander's current caphit will be similar to the one Marner signed, so he should be replicating marner's impact at least offensively. That means being a 100+ point player even if it's pace for most of it. If not, then Nylander's contract should've came in at 8.5-10 like the other two.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

How important to Leafs Nation do you think it is for Willy to reach the 100 point milestone and stay in the top 10 race?

Imagine he's sitting on 99 leading up to the Florida games and Keefe sits him like he did Marner last year? It would serve Willy right for coasting lately but I've been pulling for him all year and still hope he finishes top 10/100pts.

If he gets another hard hit like in that Tampa game I can see Keefe giving him a maintenance break.

 

[ZEBROA]

How many 100+ players are currently playing on the third line(or second second line) with Knies and Holmberg type of players? Just asking , maby theres a ton...
Miller comes to mind.

Mcmann Nylander Marner , id like to se if knies holmberg line dont work . If u gonna galaxy brain , do it properly.

 

[Gary Nylund]

How important to Leafs Nation do you think it is for Willy to reach the 100 point milestone and stay in the top 10 race?

Imagine he's sitting on 99 leading up to the Florida games and Keefe sits him like he did Marner last year? It would serve Willy right for coasting lately but I've been pulling for him all year and still hope he finishes top 10/100pts.

If he gets another hard hit like in that Tampa game I can see Keefe giving him a maintenance break.

Doesn't matter to me. I'll judge his season the same as I judge it for everyone else - to a large extent on how he plays in the playoffs.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

How important to Leafs Nation do you think it is for Willy to reach the 100 point milestone and stay in the top 10 race?

Imagine he's sitting on 99 leading up to the Florida games and Keefe sits him like he did Marner last year? It would serve Willy right for coasting lately but I've been pulling for him all year and still hope he finishes top 10/100pts.

If he gets another hard hit like in that Tampa game I can see Keefe giving him a maintenance break.

Does ANYONE, other than Nylander himself, really give a crap if this guy hits a hundred points.

I don't remember any fans being upset Marner missed. It's been done before lots of times. Lol... It's not like it's some magical number that signifies his transcendence into Superstar status.

The only psychological significance it has is that it might help justify his salary.

I mean, good Lord, I really hope nobody thinks he's underpaid. The best fans could say if Nylander hits a hundred points every year is that he wouldn't be grossly overpaid. And now that fans know what he is capable of they will be demanding the moon and the stars and the sun every year in return for their investment.

Just like Nylander did when he negotiated that contract.

 

[ACC1224]

How important to Leafs Nation do you think it is for Willy to reach the 100 point milestone and stay in the top 10 race?

Imagine he's sitting on 99 leading up to the Florida games and Keefe sits him like he did Marner last year? It would serve Willy right for coasting lately but I've been pulling for him all year and still hope he finishes top 10/100pts.

If he gets another hard hit like in that Tampa game I can see Keefe giving him a maintenance break.

May as well give him a break, he seems continually disinterested.