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NYI keep the 5th overall pick; Sabres now have three 2015 1st-round picks – Part III

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ZeroPT*

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Zip15 said:
Of course it isn't a simple equation. I'm hypothesizing and making educated guesses. They were an average possession team when Tavares went down, but they were killed by brutal goaltending. They've become an even better possession team down the middle with Grabovski and they've addressed their goaltending.

At least I have a rationale that amounts to more than "because they're the Islanders."
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Well, I never said that because I too think that's ridiculous. But I don't think the moves they made are THAT impressive.

For example, we added
a top 4 D-man (Gorges)
a top 9 winger (Gionta)
a top 6 winger (Moulson)
a good 4th liner (McCormick)
a bottom pairing D-man (Mez)

They added:
Middle of the road starting goalie (Halak)
3rd liner (Kulemin)
Top 6 center (Grabo)

Why are their moves so impressive and pushing them to the playoffs, but we remain in last place? Because other teams have improved.

There are cogent arguments that they are better or could be better than most of those teams. Toronto? Really? They going to keep their ridiculous SV% and SH%, and continue defying the possession odds? You're going to bet on that?
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The Islanders don't have a very good coach/system either. Capuano is bordering incompetent and they're one of the streakiest teams in the league.

Just as Toronto,Ottawa,New Jersey et all can be dysfunctional, so can the Islanders. And I don't think these moves simply cannon them into the playoffs. A lot needs to happen for that to happen.
 
Zip15

Zip15

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ZeroPT said:
Well, I never said that because I too think that's ridiculous. But I don't think the moves they made are THAT impressive.

For example, we added
a top 4 D-man (Gorges)
a top 9 winger (Gionta)
a top 6 winger (Moulson)
a good 4th liner (McCormick)
a bottom pairing D-man (Mez)

They added:
Middle of the road starting goalie (Halak)
3rd liner (Kulemin)
Top 6 center (Grabo)

Why are their moves so impressive and pushing them to the playoffs, but we remain in last place? Because other teams have improved.


The Islanders don't have a very good coach/system either. Capuano is bordering incompetent and they're one of the streakiest teams in the league.

Just as Toronto,Ottawa,New Jersey et all can be dysfunctional, so can the Islanders. And I don't think these moves simply cannon them into the playoffs. A lot needs to happen for that to happen.
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I'd certainly start with the fact that we were 27 pts worse than them last year, and I don't see a marked upgrade on defense in our case, if there's one at all. I think we'll be a better offensive team, but that isn't saying much. In truth, we really only added Gionta and Reinhart up front to the team that was so putrid last season.
 
Jame

Jame

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Zip15 said:
I look at it differently. I see 79 points last year with abhorrent goaltending. I ask myself how many points have their offseason moves added. Keep in mind, this team was on an 82-game pace of 85 pts in games started by Nabokov and his .905 SV%, which is well below league average--and he was by far their best goaltender! Throw in Halak, a competent backup (Johnson is an average backup, but that's a substantial improvement over Nilsson and Poulin, neither of whom belong in the NHL), and two solid top-9 additions, and I'm liking what they've done. I also think they'll get growth from Strome and Nelson, which more Sabres fans should be worried about as both are very good youngsters.

I think they're an 88-94 point team this coming season.
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Did you do similar analysis of every other bad team, that made free agent improvements by picking up the droppings of playoff teams?
 
Gabrielor

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MayDay said:
Because of the stupid points system that isn't even true.

You can gain more points without taking away points from anyone else. All you have to do is get convert a few regulation losses to OTLs.
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It is dumb. (the point system)

However, let's assume that scenario plays out. The average number of OT loses by all 30 teams last year was around 10. New Jersey led the way with 18 (they're bad at shootouts).

Let's give it the max then, and say the Isles improve from 11 otl's to 18, a 7 swing point swing for them, finishing with 86 points. That's still the 10th pick.

I think NYI has improved, but we'll see the competition when the rest of the eastern teams' moves are done.
 
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Jame

Jame

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Zip15 said:
I look at it differently. I see 79 points last year with abhorrent goaltending. I ask myself how many points have their offseason moves added. Keep in mind, this team was on an 82-game pace of 85 pts in games started by Nabokov and his .905 SV%, which is well below league average--and he was by far their best goaltender! Throw in Halak, a competent backup (Johnson is an average backup, but that's a substantial improvement over Nilsson and Poulin, neither of whom belong in the NHL), and two solid top-9 additions, and I'm liking what they've done. I also think they'll get growth from Strome and Nelson, which more Sabres fans should be worried about as both are very good youngsters.

I think they're an 88-94 point team this coming season.
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When are you going to put your avatar where your analysis is? ;)
 
Zip15

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Jame said:
When are you going to put your avatar where your analysis is? ;)
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I've already said I'll do it. We have plenty of time before the season to work out terms. The bet is bottom-10 finish (21st-30th overall in the standings), correct?
 
Jame

Jame

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Zip15 said:
I've already said I'll do it. We have plenty of time before the season to work out terms. The bet is bottom-10 finish (21st-30th overall in the standings), correct?
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correct, i have them in the bottom 10 in points.
deal.
:handclap:
 
TehDoak

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Zip15 said:
I've already said I'll do it. We have plenty of time before the season to work out terms. The bet is bottom-10 finish (21st-30th overall in the standings), correct?
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Jame said:
correct, i have them in the bottom 10 in points.
deal.
:handclap:
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What happens if 20th and 21st in the standings is tied in points and one if them is the Isles. WHATS TIE BREAKER.
 

Karate Johnson*

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I feel like Halak might get comfortable now that he got paid.

He also doesn't seem like the kind of guy who is going to deal well with criticism if he has a bad stretch.

Obviously he's an upgrade over last year, but I don't feel like its a foolproof plan.
 
Zip15

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26CornerBlitz said:
How good can they expect him to be with the D corps they currently have on the roster?
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Well, we know how bad they can be with that defense corps and the worst possible goaltending: 79 pts. Miller went from one of the worst defensive teams in the league to one of the best, and his SV% dropped 20 pts. Quick plays behind a very good defensive team and his SV% is around .910 over his last 100 regular season starts. Goaltenders' numbers are not necessarily derived from the defense in front of them.
 
Jame

Jame

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Zip15 said:
Well, we know how bad they can be with that defense corps and the worst possible goaltending: 79 pts. Miller went from one of the worst defensive teams in the league to one of the best, and his SV% dropped 20 pts. Quick plays behind a very good defensive team and his SV% is around .910 over his last 100 regular season starts. Goaltenders' numbers are not necessarily derived from the defense in front of them.
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and wins aren't derived from a higher save % (which is essentially your NYI/Halak argument)
 

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ZeroPT said:
They added:
Middle of the road starting goalie (Halak)
3rd liner (Kulemin)
Top 6 center (Grabo)
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You leave out

Backup goalie that should be an improvement on the 2 guys we used for backup last season

Forward depth in Bridgeport incase of Injury

With Addition or Reinhart and Brennan defensive depth as well(ie Ness was our first call up last season)
 
EichHart

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boredmale said:
You leave out

Backup goalie that should be an improvement on the 2 guys we used for backup last season

Forward depth in Bridgeport incase of Injury

With Addition or Reinhart and Brennan defensive depth as well(ie Ness was our first call up last season)
Click to expand...

:laugh:
 

boredmale

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couture23 said:
Brennan is horribleeeee defensively.
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You do realize he is probably 8 or 9th on Islanders defeseman charts. As I said he can't be much worse then our go to guys last year when the injury bug struck.
 
La Cosa Nostra

La Cosa Nostra

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I would bet anything the Isles pick is no lower then 15-16. I guarantee even if they make the playoffs they are the 8th seed at best. I think a pick around 10-12 is more feasible. Okposo had one great year lets see him do it again. Tavares coming off a major injury, their D still sucks since Boyle spurned them, Grabo is a decent 2/3C and Kulemin blows.
 
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