And what justifies Revere as a lead off hitter? He does not get on base enough, has very little gap power, and if you watch whenever he gets on, the Jays have it stapled to first, NOT TO DISRUPT the at bats of Tulowitzki and Donaldson. So how is he going to help anymore as a lead off hitter?
Blue Jays Discussion: Not quite leading the division <------- that's a little less cool
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And what justifies Revere as a lead off hitter? He does not get on base enough, has very little gap power, and if you watch whenever he gets on, the Jays have it stapled to first, NOT TO DISRUPT the at bats of Tulowitzki and Donaldson. So how is he going to help anymore as a lead off hitter?
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
There is never a time for Goins to be batting leadoff. No matter how well he has been at getting on base recently, it's just not a good idea at all to have him receiving the most plate appearances on the team.
tml19
Registered User
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
He's already getting that. If you want to put someone else at leadoff, try one of your better hitters.
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
The same Ben Revere that people were screaming and howling to have lifted in yesterday's game in favor of Dioner Navarro (aka the worst hitter on the roster in terms of guys who have been here all season?) The same Ben Revere who, when you compare to Tulowitzki on their admittedly small sample sizes of Blue Jays tenure (which seems to be the deciding factor in saying that Tulowitzki shouldn't be in the leadoff spot anymore) is:
1) 8 points lower on Batting Average (meaning the vaunted .300 hitter Revere is actually doing worse than what is considered unacceptable for Tulowitzki)
2) 93 points lower on OBP (which is utterly insane when you compare the BA gap. We joke that Pillar is allergic to walks, well then Revere must have an EpiPen on the bench, because the way he avoids the base-on-balls makes you think that they must be fatal to him.)
3) walking less than half as often as Tulo (hence the crazy, crazy, crazy OBP gap between them)
4) OPSing 270 points lower (ie no walks and no power, which we're getting to)
5) an ISO so low that I didn't even think it was possible. .022. For reference, Fangraphs' scale for illustrating ISO stops at 0.80, which it deems as "awful" and Revere is 4x less than that almost.
Revere has his uses. His speed and his potential to go on an offensive streak will make him useful at the bottom of the order as a way of loading up when the lineup turns over for Tulo/Donaldson/Bautista. His D is good in that sort of Rajai Davis-esque way that his outstanding athleticism makes up for his poor instincts and fielding IQ. But his high batting average is almost wholly dependent on his speed and putting hte ball in play. He has very little plate discipline. He's kind of like a more extreme version of Melky. And we're seeing exactly what happens when his ability to make contact deserts him for any length of time: he becomes totally offensively useless. Given the choice, I'm handing hte leadoff spot to a guy with great offensive instincts and a history of getting on base at a pretty impressive rate. For comparison, if you take Revere's career high OBP, it would be Tulowitzki's 3rd worst season mark by more than 20 points. And his two worse seasons include his rookie year 25-game stint.
I knowI was thinking about that. Reyes was pretty decent there despite not having the best eye . I'm stumped. I just think he's having a tough time. He might not say so. Just think he wiould be better served batting 3-4-5.
Oh well Jays need to figure it out.
And TBH as much as I thought revere was a good move. He's been pretty dismal offensively.
Tulo probably is the best option. Honestly, the whole issue about hitting better/worse in different lineup spots is kind of bunk. Even if the evidence in favor of "protection" or the like wasn't extremely tenuous, what would be the advantage of hitting him lower? The general belief has always been explained as hitting in front of a feared batter is of some amount of benefit, because you would see more fastballs since hte pitcher would want to try to get you out and face the heart of the order with no one on base, rather than be less aggressive and risk you taking a walk and creating a potential run to be cashed in. So you have your leadoff guy and then behind him you have 1) a guy with a legitimate case to be the MVP, 2) the single most proficient HR hitter in all of baseball over the last 5 years, and 3) a crazy-patient pure hitter with perhaps the most raw power on the team.
One would think, if lineup protection and pitcher strategy relative to future batters were significant, that in such a case Tulowitzki would be getting the benefit of a bunch of fastballs right down the pipe in an attempt to make sure he doesn't get walked and doesn't get on base. And if that were the case, he would be better served batting leadoff and getting more pitches to hit than batting, say, 5th where pitchers could work around him and take their chances with Colabello/Smoak, Martin, Pillar, Goins, and Revere.
Now of course with all that said, the fact is that lineup protection likely means ****-all. If you look at Tulo's career zone profile (of which like 99% of his PAs have been in a middle-of-the-order slot) vs fastballs (including cutters and sinkers) vs his profile since the start of August with the Jays and hitting leadoff, they're more or less the same while allowing for the swingyness of small sample sizes. He's seen slightly more pitches right down the heart of the plate compared to his career total, but the raw # is so small that it would've only taken 2 or 3 of them drifting a little bit of that center spot to eliminate the significance of the increase entirely.
So if that's the case and lineup protection is mostly without merit, then the deciding factor then it's better to hit Tulo high in the order on the basis of getting more PAs than putting him lower for no real significant advantage in opposing pitcher approach, given that Donaldson-Bautista-Encarnacion are locked in hard at 2-4.
Of course in an ideal world I might put the order as:
Bautista
Tulowitzki
Donaldson
Encarnacion
Martin
Smoak/Colabello
Goins
Pillar
Revere
and if/when Travis gets back you flip-flop his/Goins' spot with Pillar's and maybe Revere's. And if Pompey comes up (assuming Travis is back) and plays instead of Pillar I'd probably make 7-9 Pompey, Revere, Travis.
Bear with me as I explain why I don't think I'm being totally crazy.
Bautista leading off is largely because his high OBP (4th highest on the team behind Colabello who's still riding the fluke wave, Travis who's hurt, and Donaldson who I'm getting to) and the fact that his OBP is paired with a fairly low-ish average. The upshot here is that he mostly gets on base because of walks. This means that his non-HR ability to get on base is of little benefit to runners since the most likely result of his PAs is going to be pushing htem along 1 non-negotiable base at a time instead of putting the ball in play (where he has a strikingly low BABIP for this season. Though that lowness is not a total surprise in a big walk/HR bat like his). So if he leads off and cranks out a HR, great you're up by 1. Otherwise he gets a walk and is on base.
Next is Tulowitzki. He's scuffling now but his career OBP is even higher than Bautista's though he doesn't take quite as many walks. Still it means he's better bet than most to get on base, and because he'll do it slightly more often with a non-HR hit than Bautista does, there's a greater chance that the live ball gives Bautista the chance to take extra bases instead of just moving up 1 on a walk (yes I know Bautista has more XBh's per season on average. But Tulo's not quite as pronounced of a dead-pull hitter as Bautista, so there's a better chance he can poke a few shallow liners into RF, which lets Bautista go 1st to 3rd if the RF is playing deep-ish or has a noodle arm)
Then you put your big gun in Donaldson at 3rd in the order. He's been the most productive bat this year. He leads in HRs, overall hits, and doubles. The latter two by fairly notable margins. His average/OBP are also high enough that he's less likely to get himself out and that all means that if you've got a guy capable of authoritatively putting hte ball in play (or just plain clearing the fence) in a way that can bring runners around, there he is. And you do with a good chance that one of the two guys ahead will be on base, and reasonably likely that at least one will be in a run-scoring position.
Then 4th you put Edwin because his slightly greater struggle at putting the ball in play, and his OBP is the lowest of the 4 assuming a forthcoming bounceback to some degree from Tulo. His job becomes being Donaldson's insurance policy. Josh gets on base, Edwin comes up in a position to drive him in. Donaldson goes down, Edwin is your 2nd chance to provide a big, powerful hit to score the other guys on base. And if he's a little more likely to be an out than the others, you've put him behind them so that he's not hindering your other 3 big bats by bringing them to the plate with an extra out. And if he takes a walk (which is a reasonable expectation) then you've got him and maybe others on base for free shots at runs out of Martin, Smoak/Colabello, Goins, Pillar, and Revere. or Pillar, Travis, Revere, or Pompey/Pillar, Revere, Travis. Or whatever.
but what do I know? I never played the game at a high level and according to Joe Morgan that renders me incapable of forming good opinions or dispatching advice on the playing or strategerizing of the game.
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tml19
Registered User
The point is Goins is the best at getting on recently (other then big 4) Hes on a hot streak so take advantage and elevate him.
Can we stop with the Goins please, he is barely a major leaguer at the best of times. You want to bat him lead off. Explain one thing to me, how does Donaldson lead the team in RBI's when he bats 2nd? When they start the game at best he would have one guy in front of him, and the rest of the time, he has some of the bottom three on base in front of him. So he manages to drive in runs, and Tulowitzki who has a better pedigree and track record than him, can't bat in front of him as the lead off guy, because he will not get the opportunity to drive in runs? So explain how Donaldson has thrived not batting 3rd/4th/5th.
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
If he's not better at getting on base than the big 4, then why would I place him ahead of them?
Just let his hot streak carry the bottom of the order then. Lord knows Pillar and Revere have done squat lately.
Swervin81
Leaf fan | YYZ -> SEA
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
Please god no to the Goins idea. He's hotter lately but it's just a hot streak. He's never been a good hitter. At any level. Well maybe once or twice he's been acceptable in the lower minors, but it's not like this is a guy with good AAA pedigree at the plate just waiting to adjust to MLB pitching. Not that those guys always pan out. Take favored lineup whipping boy du jour, Pillar: He owns a career .315/.353/.857 AAA slash line over 650 PAs in Buffalo (noted for not being a hitter-friendly league like the old Vegas AAA team). But he just can't put it together in the bigs.
You do with Goins what you do with all batless, defensive specialists of his ilk: you bury them in or at the end of the dead spot in your lineup and just be happy with any times he manages to get on base before things roll over and the big guns come back up. And if he gets hot for a while, awesome.
I would not entertain the idea of putting him atop the lineup based on what amounts to a couple weeks of crazy, flukey walk-taking and a little bit of extra power. If this truly was him turning a corner on plate discipline and/or pitch recognition, he'd probably not be posting a batting average worse than any other month this season besides June.
You do with Goins what you do with all batless, defensive specialists of his ilk: you bury them in or at the end of the dead spot in your lineup and just be happy with any times he manages to get on base before things roll over and the big guns come back up. And if he gets hot for a while, awesome.
I would not entertain the idea of putting him atop the lineup based on what amounts to a couple weeks of crazy, flukey walk-taking and a little bit of extra power. If this truly was him turning a corner on plate discipline and/or pitch recognition, he'd probably not be posting a batting average worse than any other month this season besides June.
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tml19
Registered User
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
I don't see how a) he's any better at the former if he leads off vs bats 7th (considering who would be in the spots ahead of him to potentially get on base and b) how he's better suited for the former than the latter given that even his crazy fluke uptick in walks still makes him a guy with no real power in his bat to get doubles or HRs that would give runners a better chance to score. You've got a guy with a high on-base and no real impact bat to speak of, the best case scenario most of the time is going to be that he gets a light single or a walk and gets on base. That makes him more likely to be someone who gets cashed in by another batter than someone who hits a big, authoritative double into the gap that clears runners off the bases.
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
tml19
Registered User
I agree with you that he is not that great of a hitter that is on a hot streak. But that is why I would take advantage of it and TRY him there for a game or 2. I love managers that change the lineup throughout the season based on who is hot. At 1 he also would get way more fastballs then at 7 or 8. It takes advantage of the threats behind him. You would not want to risk walking Goins with the 4 behind him. Thats why I would like a not so good hitter that is a good fastball hitter at 1, it adds depth to your lineup. You have no real flaw in your lineup if Goins can take advantage of the fastballs
tml19
Registered User
Which would allow the big boys to drive in way more runs even if hes just at first.
Swervin81
Leaf fan | YYZ -> SEA
What in the flying **** is the difference between:
1. Goins
2. Tulo
3. Josh
4. Bautista
etc
and
9. Goins
1. Tulo
2. Josh
3. Bautista
etc
Seriously, there is absolutely no difference. You just give your best hitters the most ABs. How people don't understand is ****ing beyond me. The bottom of the order can get on to have the top of the order, the big boys, drive them in. And that's not even getting into how horrible the idea of having Goins lead off is.
1. Goins
2. Tulo
3. Josh
4. Bautista
etc
and
9. Goins
1. Tulo
2. Josh
3. Bautista
etc
Seriously, there is absolutely no difference. You just give your best hitters the most ABs. How people don't understand is ****ing beyond me. The bottom of the order can get on to have the top of the order, the big boys, drive them in. And that's not even getting into how horrible the idea of having Goins lead off is.
Canada4Gold
Registered User
- Dec 22, 2010
- 42,997
- 9,190
there's a lot of overthinking going on in here.
Lost 2 games, have to fix something. No you don't, everyone loses games, we just had an 11 game win streak with this lineup. It's fine.
Lost 2 games, have to fix something. No you don't, everyone loses games, we just had an 11 game win streak with this lineup. It's fine.
Suntouchable13
Registered User
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
I don't want to change the lineup for a hot streak that could end tomorrow. I've stomach the fact that Colabello hits 5th as much as he does, but even that I don't like and he's got a lot farther and a lot longer to fall to reach offensive irrelevancy than Goins does. If this were Goins showing for several months that he's developed some newfound patience then maybe you push him up a little and see what happens if there's a big, giant hole to fill. But I'm not displacing Tulowitzki at the top of the order for the sake of a guy whose big offensive improvement is a sudden surge in his walk rate to 4x his career norm in barely 2 weeks of play.
That's not what you said. You said you would rather Goins driving in runs than setting them up. And you were responding to Eyedea saying that if Goins isn't as good at getting on base than the big 4, what's the point of putting him at the top of the lineup.
So I'm confused because it looks like your argument is that you want Goins to be in a position to drive in more runs by hitting right smack ahead of Tulo/Donaldson/Bautista/Edwin, but your supporting point is that by putting him there it creates a better chance for those 4 to drive him in vs Tulowitzki leading off (which it really doesn't, but that's beside the confusion). You seem like you're saying he should lead off so he can drive in runs instead of just score them, but that the benefit of him leading off is an increased chance to score runs (as opposed to driving them in because shifting him to 1st now puts him behind all 3 of Smoak/Colabello, Pillar, and Revere, of whom only 1 guy is getting on base at a high clip at the moment, and that's based on the world's biggest horseshoe up his ass)
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
to be fair, I'm only engaging in the thought experiment of lineup shuffling because a) it was brought up and b) to dissuade people from saying crazy things like how Revere or Goins should necessitate teh shuffle for the purpose of installing them in the #1 spot. I'd rather not touch anything at the moment. My personal idealized lineup would more be something to consider going into a season if there are bigger changes to be made.
That's not the argument going on. Right now Goins mostly bats 7th, so the rollover effect would mean that Goins as the delineated leadoff guy in this order would be
Goins
Pillar
Revere
Tulo
Donaldson
Bautista
If this were just still about Revere leading off you'd be right, but there are more moving parts going on in shuffling Goins around than just re-assigning the arbitrary start/end point of the lineup after the 1st inning.
Most people are on board with that. Which is why the majority of the arguments against Goins are predicated on some level of "he's not good enough to displace any of the 4 other really good hitters that are at the top of the lineup"
the debate may be spirited, but right now you seem to be only one really agitated by it
tml19
Registered User
It was in the context of talking about Tulo. I meant I would rather have all of the big 4 driving in runs rather then 1 of them setting it up for the others. If Goins gets more fastballs at the top he could start producing at a good rate and deepens the lineup.
When he gets healthy, Travis needs yo lead off.
Travis
Donaldson
Bautista
EE
Tulo
Martin
Smoak
Pillar
Revere
Travis
Donaldson
Bautista
EE
Tulo
Martin
Smoak
Pillar
Revere
I think Revere should be given a few games o lead off
I don't have any stats to back it up but just a gut feeling. He was leading off for the phillies and that was his comfort zone. Maybe moving into the lead off spot gives him that edge he had with the Phillies. Some guys need that comfort level they are used to.
He might need that pressure of starting the game and being that table setter to get going.
Again I have no stats to back up either leading off or not just a gut feeling, a hunch.....I know you can't measure it someway but try it
This allows Tulo to hit 5 with guys on base and he takes advantage of that. Then you have
Revere
Donaldson
Jose
EE
Tulo
Martin
Collabello/ smoak
Pillar
Goins
I think this could work well
I don't have any stats to back it up but just a gut feeling. He was leading off for the phillies and that was his comfort zone. Maybe moving into the lead off spot gives him that edge he had with the Phillies. Some guys need that comfort level they are used to.
He might need that pressure of starting the game and being that table setter to get going.
Again I have no stats to back up either leading off or not just a gut feeling, a hunch.....I know you can't measure it someway but try it
This allows Tulo to hit 5 with guys on base and he takes advantage of that. Then you have
Revere
Donaldson
Jose
EE
Tulo
Martin
Collabello/ smoak
Pillar
Goins
I think this could work well
I don't understand the comfort zone. After the first inning a player will hit in a different spot pretty much most of the time. If Revere is batting first in the first inning he likely never bats first in an inning again.
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