Speculation: Nostradamus Thread: Who do we lose in the Expansion Draft?

[Trolfoli]

Why would the Kings retain on Brown to get nothing back? He'd be a steal in the $3M range. If Vegas wants him they can pay full price.

Couple of thoughts... There don't seem to be that good of UFA's that will make it to free agency so what's the point of clearing out extra cap space? With youth being given a shot the cap crunch isn't that big of a deal right now.

I might even protect Brown at this point. He needs a grinding 3C like Stoll/Dowd to be effective, those are easy to find. With his play getting better and no longer being in cap hell what would be the point of moving him?

 

[KingsFan7824]

Why would the Kings retain on Brown to get nothing back? He'd be a steal in the $3M range. If Vegas wants him they can pay full price.

It would open up $3m. Other than the outright ridiculous scenario where a team takes his full contract, retaining 50% on Brown and not having to give up anything else on top of that, and getting nothing back, would be the best case scenario.

Well, the best case scenario is Brown turns back into a 25 goal, 50 point 1st line winger for the Kings.

Couple of thoughts... There don't seem to be that good of UFA's that will make it to free agency so what's the point of clearing out extra cap space? With youth being given a shot the cap crunch isn't that big of a deal right now.

A few guys will need new contracts in the next year or two, and not just Toffoli and Pearson. Perfect world, you always want as much cap flexibility as possible. You never know who might become available.

I might even protect Brown at this point. He needs a grinding 3C like Stoll/Dowd to be effective, those are easy to find. With his play getting better and no longer being in cap hell what would be the point of moving him?

Easy to find? How long have the Kings been looking for one before Dowd got the job?

If they expose Brown in the draft, that doesn't mean he's going anywhere. He's not going to be taken, and if he somehow was, that can't hurt. He's got one 5v5 goal this season(Dowd has 0 btw), and he's still simply taking up too much cap space for his level of production. Even if he's on pace for closer to 40 points than 30.

As they say for a lot of players, it's not the current year's cap hit that is the biggest issue; it's the number of years that cap hit exists. His contract ends in 2022. That's 5 years from the end of this season. Think back 5 years ago from today, and how different the Kings look.

 

[HookKing]

Forbort/Gravel are both being shielded by assignments/partner/minutes/zone starts.

But that is the way it's suppose to be, when breaking in a new Rookie Defender.

A-Mart/Muzzin nightly face the most Defensive zone starts, and toughest assignment. They also both play 20+ minutes a night.

That makes sense though, they are the most experienced pairing, the Kings have.

Yet Forbort is getting protected nowhere near as much as McNabb. McNabb got way more o zone starts and fewer d zones starts and he's not exactly a rookie defender. What does that tell us?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Still don't think we ever retain anything on Brown, because the cost of a replacement 3rd liner would be as much as we retain...so we downgrade on brown to save 2.5 million that we then spend on his replacement...

 

[Fishhead]

Yet Forbort is getting protected nowhere near as much as McNabb. McNabb got way more o zone starts and fewer d zones starts and he's not exactly a rookie defender. What does that tell us?

McNabb faced the opponents with the highest CF60 of any defensmen on the team, it's because he was paired with Drew and they were facing top competition. His opponents CF% is 51.20. Doughty has a lower opponent CF% at 50.34, because since he has been paired with Forbort they haven't been facing the other teams top guys. Forbort's opponent CF% is sub-50 at 49.92.

Muzzin and Martinez' opponents CF60 have now surpassed Doughty as they are facing tougher competition. McNabb's is still tops on the team at 56.79, over a full point ahead of anyone else. It tells you just how tough the competition he and Doughty were facing when paired together early in the year. His numbers indicate that he faced tougher competition than anyone. Any numbers/stats need to be taken in context, but McNabb certainly wasn't being protected in any way, shape, or form.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Still don't think we ever retain anything on Brown, because the cost of a replacement 3rd liner would be as much as we retain...so we downgrade on brown to save 2.5 million that we then spend on his replacement...

But that guy might only be signed for 1 season, instead of the next 5. Or it's a young guy.

Anything that happens with Brown's contract, other than another team taking 100% of it, or him hitting 50 points again for multiple seasons playing with Kopitar, is going to be a net negative for the Kings. Either he's a $6m third line winger, or it's $3m in dead cap space.

 

[Trolfoli]

Still don't think we ever retain anything on Brown, because the cost of a replacement 3rd liner would be as much as we retain...so we downgrade on brown to save 2.5 million that we then spend on his replacement...

Yup... it would work out like paying King or Lewis $5M (Lewis cap hit + Brown retention= around $5M) Better off keeping Brown.


The goal is to get a top 9 that's productive. Right now Brown/Dowd/Seto is productive so the contract doesn't matter.

Also the Kings don't have the assets to bring in another high priced player, and the UFA pool is pretty barren so after you're done retaining on Brown there's no point in moving him.

 

[KingCanadain1976]

Still don't think we ever retain anything on Brown, because the cost of a replacement 3rd liner would be as much as we retain...so we downgrade on brown to save 2.5 million that we then spend on his replacement...

unless we promote one of the kids in the ahl and pay under a million

 

[Trolfoli]

Ok... try this. Brown's over paid about 2-2.5M. At 3-4M not many people would have a problem with Brown. So If the Kings retain $2M then whoever replaces Brown is also overpaid by $2M. That's like a $4M Lewis or a 2.5M Seto. Once he's traded with retention it locks in how much the overpay is. This doesn't give options like maybe Brown goes on a fishing trip with Richards or suffers a career ending injury where the Kings can get out of the contract. Trading him with retention is about the worst possible move, not to mention he's playing great right now.

Oh yeah... my prediction is that there will be a trade that changes things.

 

[damacles1156]

McNabb faced the opponents with the highest CF60 of any defensmen on the team, it's because he was paired with Drew and they were facing top competition. His opponents CF% is 51.20. Doughty has a lower opponent CF% at 50.34, because since he has been paired with Forbort they haven't been facing the other teams top guys. Forbort's opponent CF% is sub-50 at 49.92.

Muzzin and Martinez' opponents CF60 have now surpassed Doughty as they are facing tougher competition. McNabb's is still tops on the team at 56.79, over a full point ahead of anyone else. It tells you just how tough the competition he and Doughty were facing when paired together early in the year. His numbers indicate that he faced tougher competition than anyone. Any numbers/stats need to be taken in context, but McNabb certainly wasn't being protected in any way, shape, or form.

Correct.

People need to take certain stats, into consideration.

 

[damacles1156]

The other thing is,

Nick Dowd is being heavily sheltered by Sutter as well. He has the highest offensive zone starts out of any Center on the Kings.

 

[HookKing]

The other thing is,

Nick Dowd is being heavily sheltered by Sutter as well. He has the highest offensive zone starts out of any Center on the Kings.

You just refuted your own argument on D. McNabb got far and away the most o zone starts. There is a reason he got the fewest d zone starts other than Gravel and Greene.

 

[HookKing]

McNabb faced the opponents with the highest CF60 of any defensmen on the team, it's because he was paired with Drew and they were facing top competition. His opponents CF% is 51.20. Doughty has a lower opponent CF% at 50.34, because since he has been paired with Forbort they haven't been facing the other teams top guys. Forbort's opponent CF% is sub-50 at 49.92.

Muzzin and Martinez' opponents CF60 have now surpassed Doughty as they are facing tougher competition. McNabb's is still tops on the team at 56.79, over a full point ahead of anyone else. It tells you just how tough the competition he and Doughty were facing when paired together early in the year. His numbers indicate that he faced tougher competition than anyone. Any numbers/stats need to be taken in context, but McNabb certainly wasn't being protected in any way, shape, or form.

Sure he was. Why wasn't he out there for d zone faceoffs? 51.2 vs. 49.92? Seriously, is that a joke?

 

[Fishhead]

Sure he was. Why wasn't he out there for d zone faceoffs? 51.2 vs. 49.92? Seriously, is that a joke?

That's a substantial difference in Opp CF%. Martinez is 50.37, Muzzin 50.34, Doughty 50.34. An entire point is huge. Three Defensmen are under 50 - Gravel, Forbort, and Greene. The difference between Forbort and McNabb is a little more than the difference between Doughty and Greene.

I really don't see how where face-offs occur have anything to do with who you are matched up with. If you are out for more offensive zone face-offs, it just means you are better at keeping possession in the offensive zone and are generating more shots during your shifts. Especially with the Kings, who often have multiple face-offs in the offensive zone during a single shift.

DD and BM had a CF% of 68.2 and CF60 of 73.26 in the time they played together. That indicates that they were spending a lot of time in the offensive zone.

 

[HookKing]

That's a substantial difference in Opp CF%. Martinez is 50.37, Muzzin 50.34, Doughty 50.34. An entire point is huge. Three Defensmen are under 50 - Gravel, Forbort, and Greene. The difference between Forbort and McNabb is a little more than the difference between Doughty and Greene.

I really don't see how where face-offs occur have anything to do with who you are matched up with. If you are out for more offensive zone face-offs, it just means you are better at keeping possession in the offensive zone and are generating more shots during your shifts. Especially with the Kings, who often have multiple face-offs in the offensive zone during a single shift.

DD and BM had a CF% of 68.2 and CF60 of 73.26 in the time they played together. That indicates that they were spending a lot of time in the offensive zone.

You do realize that Forbort was on the "protected" pair for the first 8 games don't you? Did you adjust his numbers for just the 16 with DD so apples are compared to apples?

Here's a number that actually matters, Team GAA with McNabb on top pair - 3.0 with Forbort 2.44.

Here's another, regulation wins with McNabb - 0.

 

[Fishhead]

You do realize that Forbort was on the "protected" pair for the first 8 games don't you? Did you adjust his numbers for just the 16 with DD so apples are compared to apples?

Here's a number that actually matters, Team GAA with McNabb on top pair - 3.0 with Forbort 2.44.

Here's another, regulation wins with McNabb - 0.

If you do a WOWY 5v5 with Forbort & McNabb with Doughty, you will see that McNabb still keeps solid numbers when they are apart, whereas Drew's drop down to more average. Here are up to date numbers for this year:

McNabb with Doughty

CF60 69.87, CA60 34.62, CF% 66.9
GF60 1.89, GA60 0.63

McNabb without Doughty

CF60 65.82 CA60 51.04, CF% 56.3
GF60, 2.69, GA60 1.34

Doughty without McNabb

CF60 57.01 CA60 53.37, CF% 51.6
GF60, 2.53, GA60 2.05

Their numbers together are top notch. When they aren't together, McNabb plays better without Drew than Drew does without McNabb. Doughty puts up his best numbers with McNabb, and it's not even close. They have been stellar since put together last year, they allowed a single 5v5 goal this year in the 100ish minutes as linemates. They've played nearly 1200 minutes together since last season and have a CF% of 60.7 and a GF% of 59.7 since then, which is fantastic.

Forbort & Doughty

CF60 50.88, CA60 51.58, CF% 49.7
GF60 2.81, GA60 1.64

Forbort without Doughty

CF60 43.72 CA60 55.78, CF% 43.9
GF60, 1.51, GA60 2.51

Doughty without Forbort

CF60 69.75 CA 47.32, CF% 59.6
GF60, 1.91, GA60 1.91

Forbort and Doughty are not great together, they are an average pairing at best. One thing they do well is score, Doughty has picked it up offensively, but that's about it. Forbort's numbers are terrible without Doughty, there's no way around it. And that was against crap competition. Doughty's numbers jump substantially without Forbort. The only thing this pairing does well is scoring, and given their possession numbers that is absolutely going to drop off. They do not defend that well together and they do not control the play.

There really is no doubt that Forbort is getting carried on that line, which I am totally fine with. He's still learning the NHL game and is going to go through this kind of thing. There is also no doubt that McNabb is a superior linemate for Drew by far, and that he more than holds his own without him. I like Forbort, and I think he will be an asset to this team for a long time. He's going to grow and improve, but he's not near McNabb's level right now. Protecting Forbort and leaving McNabb exposed would be a terrible error.

 

[HookKing]

If you do a WOWY 5v5 with Forbort & McNabb with Doughty, you will see that McNabb still keeps solid numbers when they are apart, whereas Drew's drop down to more average. Here are up to date numbers for this year:

McNabb with Doughty

CF60 69.87, CA60 34.62, CF% 66.9
GF60 1.89, GA60 0.63

McNabb without Doughty

CF60 65.82 CA60 51.04, CF% 56.3
GF60, 2.69, GA60 1.34

Doughty without McNabb

CF60 57.01 CA60 53.37, CF% 51.6
GF60, 2.53, GA60 2.05

Their numbers together are top notch. When they aren't together, McNabb plays better without Drew than Drew does without McNabb. Doughty puts up his best numbers with McNabb, and it's not even close. They have been stellar since put together last year, they allowed a single 5v5 goal this year in the 100ish minutes as linemates. They've played nearly 1200 minutes together since last season and have a CF% of 60.7 and a GF% of 59.7 since then, which is fantastic.

Forbort & Doughty

CF60 50.88, CA60 51.58, CF% 49.7
GF60 2.81, GA60 1.64

Forbort without Doughty

CF60 43.72 CA60 55.78, CF% 43.9
GF60, 1.51, GA60 2.51

Doughty without Forbort

CF60 69.75 CA 47.32, CF% 59.6
GF60, 1.91, GA60 1.91

Forbort and Doughty are not great together, they are an average pairing at best. One thing they do well is score, Doughty has picked it up offensively, but that's about it. Forbort's numbers are terrible without Doughty, there's no way around it. And that was against crap competition. Doughty's numbers jump substantially without Forbort. The only thing this pairing does well is scoring, and given their possession numbers that is absolutely going to drop off. They do not defend that well together and they do not control the play.

There really is no doubt that Forbort is getting carried on that line, which I am totally fine with. He's still learning the NHL game and is going to go through this kind of thing. There is also no doubt that McNabb is a superior linemate for Drew by far, and that he more than holds his own without him. I like Forbort, and I think he will be an asset to this team for a long time. He's going to grow and improve, but he's not near McNabb's level right now. Protecting Forbort and leaving McNabb exposed would be a terrible error.

Your conclusion is simply laughable. Doughty looks "great" with McNabb because all his starts are in the offensive zone. Forbert looks bad without Doughty? Let's see how great McNabb is paired with Greene then we can talk.

The Kings D has improved enormously since McNabb went out. Forbert makes defensive plays that McNabb can only dream about because he's miles ahead as a skater and knows how to use his reach. DS wants mobility from his D and demanded McNabb improve his skating (which it doesn't look like he has). It also explains why DS kept McNabb away from d zone starts. More importantly, it comes down to wins and McNabb with Doughty wasn't winning. Add to the fact that Forbert doesn't even have 1/2 season worth of games yet and its easy to see the gap between the two will grow much wider.

 

[Trolfoli]

Your conclusion is simply laughable. Doughty looks "great" with McNabb because all his starts are in the offensive zone. Forbert looks bad without Doughty? Let's see how great McNabb is paired with Greene then we can talk.

The Kings D has improved enormously since McNabb went out. Forbert makes defensive plays that McNabb can only dream about because he's miles ahead as a skater and knows how to use his reach. DS wants mobility from his D and demanded McNabb improve his skating (which it doesn't look like he has). It also explains why DS kept McNabb away from d zone starts. More importantly, it comes down to wins and McNabb with Doughty wasn't winning. Add to the fact that Forbert doesn't even have 1/2 season worth of games yet and its easy to see the gap between the two will grow much wider.

You are ignoring how bad Forbort got exposed against the Sharks.

 

[KingsFan7824]

The goal is to get a top 9 that's productive. Right now Brown/Dowd/Seto is productive so the contract doesn't matter.

With a cap, the contract always matters, no matter what. It's always going to be a production vs. contract ratio.

At 5v5, Brown has 1 goal, Dowd has 0, and Setoguchi has 3. With Dowd and Setoguchi, the Kings are getting a decent amount of production for $1.2m in cap space. Talking a combined 3G, 9A, and 12pts at 5v5 in 24 games. Add in Brown's 1G, and 5A, and it's a combined 4G and 14A at 5v5. 18 points in 24 games. For a 3rd line, that's pretty good. Add up their cap hits together, and it helps that Dowd and Setoguchi make so little.

That Brown and Dowd lead the team in PP points, can mean one of two things; the PP is really deep, or it's really struggling.

Ok... try this. Brown's over paid about 2-2.5M. At 3-4M not many people would have a problem with Brown. So If the Kings retain $2M then whoever replaces Brown is also overpaid by $2M. That's like a $4M Lewis or a 2.5M Seto. Once he's traded with retention it locks in how much the overpay is. This doesn't give options like maybe Brown goes on a fishing trip with Richards or suffers a career ending injury where the Kings can get out of the contract. Trading him with retention is about the worst possible move, not to mention he's playing great right now.

Oh yeah... my prediction is that there will be a trade that changes things.

I don't know if this is sarcastic or not. Hold onto Brown's total cap hit...because maybe he gets stopped at the border with something that would be quickly overlooked if the player was still productive? That's the hope? If Richards was still able to put up 40 points, is Lombardi going to make that non-space alien related border thing a big deal? Would anyone care if Stoll was having fun at a party if he was still good?

Maybe Brown gets hurt really bad 3 years from now and can't play again!

And Brown is playing well right now. Certainly looks like a more solid NHL player than he has in years. Not great though.

 

[Fishhead]

Your conclusion is simply laughable. Doughty looks "great" with McNabb because all his starts are in the offensive zone. Forbert looks bad without Doughty? Let's see how great McNabb is paired with Greene then we can talk.

The Kings D has improved enormously since McNabb went out. Forbert makes defensive plays that McNabb can only dream about because he's miles ahead as a skater and knows how to use his reach. DS wants mobility from his D and demanded McNabb improve his skating (which it doesn't look like he has). It also explains why DS kept McNabb away from d zone starts. More importantly, it comes down to wins and McNabb with Doughty wasn't winning. Add to the fact that Forbert doesn't even have 1/2 season worth of games yet and its easy to see the gap between the two will grow much wider.

You realize that when McNabb wasn't with Doughty his DZFO% went up to 36.8? And his OZFO% dropped to 26.3? It's pretty clear that McNabb wasn't being kept away from defensive starts, the only time they are low is when he was with Doughty. Otherwise his DZFO% is one of the tops on the team.

And you can point to wins all you want, but its been shown time and time again that possession stats are huge indicators of success. Possession affects goals in the long run, not vice-versa.

Sutter did note McNabb's improvement, but after 6 games he said it was a small sample size and they needed to see it over a period of time. Unfortunately he went down 2 games later, but we'll see when he gets back.

 

[HookKing]

You realize that when McNabb wasn't with Doughty his DZFO% went up to 36.8? And his OZFO% dropped to 26.3? It's pretty clear that McNabb wasn't being kept away from defensive starts, the only time they are low is when he was with Doughty. Otherwise his DZFO% is one of the tops on the team.

And you can point to wins all you want, but its been shown time fand time again that possession stats are huge indicators of success. Possession affects goals in the long run, not vice-versa.

Sutter did note McNabb's improvement, but after 6 games he said it was a small sample size and they needed to see it over a period of time. Unfortunately he went down 2 games later, but we'll see when he gets back.

Not buying any of this. Sample sizes way too small. How often did McNabb play without Doughty. And if possession stats were the be all and end all Muzzin would have won a Norris in 2013 he was miles ahead of anyone in the league playing a full schedule. And, last year Forbort lead the D corps in Corsi, does anybody think he was better last year than this year? Please.

 

[Fishhead]

Not buying any of this. Sample sizes way too small. How often did McNabb play without Doughty. And if possession stats were the be all and end all Muzzin would have won a Norris in 2013 he was miles ahead of anyone in the league playing a full schedule. And, last year Forbort lead the D corps in Corsi, does anybody think he was better last year than this year? Please.

For this year, the sample size is absolutely small. But given that McNabb put up similar numbers last year playing 1340 minutes with Doughty, I think it's safe to say those numbers aren't outliers.