Speculation: Nostradamus Thread: Who do we lose in the Expansion Draft?

[Papa Mocha 15]

Get your pick in now just to say you called it in the beginning of season and then tell all your friends you were right.

3 questions.

Who actually gets plucked in the expansion draft?
Who would you rather see go?

And just for kicks.... who wins the Cup this year?

I pick Brown goes. I'd like to see Brown go. And I'll throw the Cup to San Jose...blasphemy right...

Click to read more...

 

[Reaper45]

Lewis goes. Would rather see Gaborik. Cup, Kings or Lightning.

 

[LAKings88]

Forbort, Dowd, or McNabb. In that order.

 

[theMajor]

McNabb

 

[Fishhead]

Forbort.

1. McPhee doesn't like big contracts.
2. Foley wants a young team.
3. Kings have a pedigree of developing defense. Forbort is young and cheap, with upside, and most importantly, RFA.

 

[Seventyx7]

1. Martinez taken (exposed over Forbort, purely cap considerations).
2. Would rather Mcnabb or King go (though I am a Mcnabb fan).
3. Kings win cup of course.

 

[Martyros]

1. Martinez taken (exposed over Forbort, purely cap considerations).
2. Would rather Mcnabb or King go (though I am a Mcnabb fan).
3. Kings win cup of course.

You don't expose a known commodity who is STILL improving his game for a 1st year player.

Also, alot of teams should have atleast one decent to good dman available. Nashville and Islanders in particular.

 

[driller1]

1. Martinez taken (exposed over Forbort, purely cap considerations).
2. Would rather Mcnabb or King go (though I am a Mcnabb fan).
3. Kings win cup of course.

Doubt Martinez gets exposed, as he's part of the Big 3 on D as Sutter refers to them. King is a UFA and may not be back anyway.

1. McNabb
2. Rather they take Greene

Personally, I think LV taking Brown is a pipe dream. We'd need to include something ridiculous like Kempe + a 1st. Maybe we can negotiate Greene + a 2nd or something to get it done. Greene only has 1 more year on his contract, so that shouldn't be a big deal for LV.

 

[Fishhead]

I was on the 7-3-1 wagon for a while, but after seeing more of what McPhee and their owner have been hinting at, 4-4 seems pretty likely.

It comes down to whether Lombardi would rather lose McNabb or Dowd/Lewis. If exposed, I would be shocked if McNabb wasn't taken.

 

[ScoreZeGoals]

McNabb or Lewis

 

[Seventyx7]

You don't expose a known commodity who is STILL improving his game for a 1st year player.

Also, alot of teams should have atleast one decent to good dman available. Nashville and Islanders in particular.

I'm looking at it purely from a cap point of view. Forbort for under $1M is something we can't afford to lose. HATE losing A-Mart, but LHD is our strength and TP & TT need contracts. Don't think there is any way to keep all of Dowd/Forbort/Martinez.

 

[rajuabju]

I hope McNabb goes, and think he will be the one to go.

I pray its Brown, but we all know that wont happen

I'm gonna go nuts and say Montreal wins the SC. Price, if he plays like he has been so far and stays healthy... will be putting on a Jonathan Quick circa 2012 playoffs performance that he just wont be denied the cup.

 

[theMajor]

I'm looking at it purely from a cap point of view. Forbort for under $1M is something we can't afford to lose. HATE losing A-Mart, but LHD is our strength and TP & TT need contracts. Don't think there is any way to keep all of Dowd/Forbort/Martinez.

arent Dowd and Forbort ineligible ? the rules say "first and second year pros are exempt" but Im unclear on what their definition of 'pro' is

 

[BigBrown]

I'm assuming the Kings for sure will protect:

Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli, Pearson
Doughty, Muzzin, Martinez

So then the question becomes do you wanna protect more d-men and lose a forward or protect forwards and lose a d-man. Dowd or Lewis seem like the most likely forwards to be picked. I personally think we can handle the loss of McNabb, Forbort or Gravel more easily than Dowd since they're all sort of competing for the same spots.

Gonna be interesting.

Edit: Forgot my prediction.

Nostradamus cap on ->
Plucked: McNabb
Prefer: Lewis (much prefer Brown obviously but it ain't happening)
Cup: Rangers

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Fun thread

I was on the 7-3-1 wagon for a while, but after seeing more of what McPhee and their owner have been hinting at, 4-4 seems pretty likely.

It comes down to whether Lombardi would rather lose McNabb or Dowd/Lewis. If exposed, I would be shocked if McNabb wasn't taken.

Almost exactly my thought but I think they'll protect McNabb over Forbort. Kings will protect, imo, Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli, Pearson, Doughty, Muzzin, Martinez, Mcnabb.

My list of likelihoods: I think Forbort is gone. If he's protected McNabb is gone. While GREAT top-4 d-men are available throughout the league, greater offensive talent is available elsewhere, who who can resist a Kings-bred defenseman these days? Either way, you lose a guy you dumped a prospect and 2 2nds into or a 1st rounder, so the sunk cost is similar (not that that should be a valid reason, just saying--you don't keep one over the other for that reason). Basically, kiss our 'fifth' defenseman goodbye. Beyond Forbort/McNabb, I'd also say Lewis will be attractive (yes), Dowd, and Clifford, guys with pedigree but upside.

So,

Plucked: Forbort
Prefer: Lewis
Cup Winner: I think the Rangers are peaking too early and the Pens' problems are finally hitting this year. I think with some teams getting pretty dismantled after this year and with the expansion draft, teams will go for it hard at the deadline. Lightning win the cup.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Also for those who may have missed it in another thread,

https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft

Expansion draft tool to fool around and look around the league. Gives you a better feel for what people are doing. I think most teams will be MUCH more comfortable exposing two or more top-niners than a top-four d-man as they have similar offensive depth. Looking at some mock drafts helps too.

 

[AlphaBravo]

I think we can all agree that the Kings will protect Doughty, Muzzin, Kopitar, Carter, Pearson, and Toffoli. I also think in my opinion that it is obvious Martinez will be protected as well, but there appears to be a small minority on this board who think Martinez should be exposed, which is nonsense. First we wont expose Martinez because he is one of our best defenseman, and second, if his cap hit is a concern we can trade him for a haul of draft picks and prospects. Why would we risk losing him for nothing to Vegas?

That basically just leaves one open spot to protect either Forbort, McNabb, or Dowd. I don't think there are any other players that would warrant a protection because, if lost, it would not make the slightest difference on this team.

I would go with protecting Forbort. I think his upside is a lot higher than McNabb. In his first full season in the NHL, he is already head and shoulders better than McNabb with respect to puck movement, getting the puck on net, playing the angles, and not freezing in the defensive zone.

I think Vegas would end up taking Dowd, which would suck, but its better to lose a third line center than a potential top 4 defenseman. I would prefer that Vegas take Brown for obvious reasons, but they wont.

I predict the Lightening winning the cup. They have been clawing at the cup for years now, and have one of the deepest teams to win it all.

 

[Trolfoli]

Couple things left out....
Dowd/McNabb would hit UFA one season after the expansion draft. I could see Vegas going for guys that will have more then one year under term. Especially since the first year may be a train wreck. (new coach, no #1D, #1C)

Rental: With Dowd making the 3rd line productive, the Kings are really only one solid top 4 RHD away from making a push. If Lombardi picks up a UFA rental, Vegas will have the ability to sign them (if left unprotected) it will count as the player taken.

Signing a UFA for 2-4 years is better for Vegas then taking Dowd/McNabb for one year.

 

[Martyros]

I'm looking at it purely from a cap point of view. Forbort for under $1M is something we can't afford to lose. HATE losing A-Mart, but LHD is our strength and TP & TT need contracts. Don't think there is any way to keep all of Dowd/Forbort/Martinez.

You find other ways to get cap space. You don't let go of a guy that actually earns the money without getting something atleast almost equal in return.

 

[YP44]

McNabb or Forbort,
Would rather see Gaborik,
I say Blues vs Tampa Bay

 

[KopitarFAN]

arent Dowd and Forbort ineligible ? the rules say "first and second year pros are exempt" but Im unclear on what their definition of 'pro' is

Both are eligible, AHL years count.

Based on this season, I have been sold on Forbort over McNabb. Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli, Pearson, with Doughty, Muzzin, Martinez, Forbort and Quick.

If they were going to protect somebody else over Martinez, it would be because they traded him, I expect to see things like this across the NHL.

 

[KingsOfCali25]

Kings protect 7-3-1...

F--Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli, Pearson, Dowd, Lewis, Mersch
D--Doughty, Muzzin, Martinez
G--Quick

Lose--McNabb
Hope--Brown
Cup Champs--Blues

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

yeah with what KingsOfCali25 said, someone on Sheng's blog brought up an interesting point--if LV is really targeting one of our d-men, does it really matter if we lose McNabb versus Forbort (unless one of them massively pulls away in performance by the end of the year)? In other words, why protect 4 d-men if Vegas is just going to choose the unprotected one? Go 7-3-1 and protect Muzzin, Martinez, Doughty--and that way you'll get to keep Dowd, who is seeming more and more valuable as time goes on (a depth center with offensive creativity, prototypical 3rd liner with top-six ability probably, versus top-4 d-men, of which we'll have an extra). Note this assumes that McNabb and Forbort are equal-ish, I know not everyone will agree. We also have a glut of defensive prospects versus high-end forward prospects, I actually already believe losing Dowd would hurt more.

 

[Seventyx7]

I think we can all agree that the Kings will protect Doughty, Muzzin, Kopitar, Carter, Pearson, and Toffoli. I also think in my opinion that it is obvious Martinez will be protected as well, but there appears to be a small minority on this board who think Martinez should be exposed, which is nonsense. First we wont expose Martinez because he is one of our best defenseman, and second, if his cap hit is a concern we can trade him for a haul of draft picks and prospects. Why would we risk losing him for nothing to Vegas?

That basically just leaves one open spot to protect either Forbort, McNabb, or Dowd. I don't think there are any other players that would warrant a protection because, if lost, it would not make the slightest difference on this team.

I would go with protecting Forbort. I think his upside is a lot higher than McNabb. In his first full season in the NHL, he is already head and shoulders better than McNabb with respect to puck movement, getting the puck on net, playing the angles, and not freezing in the defensive zone.

I think Vegas would end up taking Dowd, which would suck, but its better to lose a third line center than a potential top 4 defenseman. I would prefer that Vegas take Brown for obvious reasons, but they wont.

I predict the Lightening winning the cup. They have been clawing at the cup for years now, and have one of the deepest teams to win it all.

All I'm saying is that Martinez @ $4M and Forbort @ <$1M is closer than it seems on the surface, assuming Gaborik and Brown will be on the team long term. Not advocating for it. Obviously Martinez's great early play makes that seem a bit ridiculous.

Protecting Dowd is a must with our lack of C depth and strong LHD situation. One of Mcnabb/Forbort/Martinez will likely be the one go.

Kopitar
Carter
Toffoli
Pearson
Dowd
Forward?
Forward?

Doughty
Muzzin
Martinez/Forbort

 

[Trolfoli]

yeah with what KingsOfCali25 said, someone on Sheng's blog brought up an interesting point--if LV is really targeting one of our d-men, does it really matter if we lose McNabb versus Forbort (unless one of them massively pulls away in performance by the end of the year)? In other words, why protect 4 d-men if Vegas is just going to choose the unprotected one? Go 7-3-1 and protect Muzzin, Martinez, Doughty--and that way you'll get to keep Dowd, who is seeming more and more valuable as time goes on (a depth center with offensive creativity, prototypical 3rd liner with top-six ability probably, versus top-4 d-men, of which we'll have an extra). Note this assumes that McNabb and Forbort are equal-ish, I know not everyone will agree. We also have a glut of defensive prospects versus high-end forward prospects, I actually already believe losing Dowd would hurt more.

Answer: Kopitar/Carter/Toffoli/Pearson/Dowd/Gaborik/???? If you only protect 4 forwards you can leave Brown available and say we didn't have enough slots. If you protect 7 forwards it's near impossible to expose Brown.