OT: Non-Hockey Sports Thread XII - Heeeeeeressss JJ! (Percy Harvin Edition)

[thestonedkoala]

The NFL has shown us that more often than not, it's almost impossible to win a Super Bowl without a legit franchise QB. I don't have an issue with the Vikings moving up to grab one. It really all depends on who they target and what they are willing to give up to get him.

Minnesota is built really, really oddly. I mean honestly, they shouldn't have drafted Addison last year. And throwing it all in for Jefferson may come back to bite them. Teams have shown a) you can get good, productive receivers in later rounds and b) you don't need elite receivers or even running backs to win games.

But this team needs an offensive line (rumor is that Bradbury maybe cut) because Ingram has been mediocre, they traded their starting guard (Cleveland). So they may have Darrisaw and...uh...I guess Ingram coming back. They need a defensive line AND linebackers and probably a cornerback or two.

Rather stay put then giving up a 1st next year to move up and grab McCarthy or Daniels or whoever. If they drop, great. If they don't, stay put and draft the best defensive line guy or move down for a team needing a wide receiver or tight end and get more picks in the 2nd.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Minnesota is built really, really oddly. I mean honestly, they shouldn't have drafted Addison last year. And throwing it all in for Jefferson may come back to bite them. Teams have shown a) you can get good, productive receivers in later rounds and b) you don't need elite receivers or even running backs to win games.

But this team needs an offensive line (rumor is that Bradbury maybe cut) because Ingram has been mediocre, they traded their starting guard (Cleveland). So they may have Darrisaw and...uh...I guess Ingram coming back. They need a defensive line AND linebackers and probably a cornerback or two.

Rather stay put then giving up a 1st next year to move up and grab McCarthy or Daniels or whoever. If they drop, great. If they don't, stay put and draft the best defensive line guy or move down for a team needing a wide receiver or tight end and get more picks in the 2nd.

Packers got a ton of solid receiving players last draft. Musgrave (R2), Reed (R2), Kraft (R3), and Wicks (R5). The round 5 guy might be the best of the bunch too lmao.

 

[MuckOG]

What’s a franchise QB? I wouldn’t put Purdy as a franchise guy and he almost won a SB this year.

My definition of a "franchise QB", is one that is considered top 10 at their position, makes the plays necessary to win the big games and can lead teams deep into the postseason over a number of years.

The Niners got lucky with Purdy. It's very rare to find a franchise QB outside of the 1st round, let alone the last pick of the draft. Most of the top QBs in the NFL are drafted in the 1st round, usually towards to the top of the 1st round.

Going into this season, I wasn't convinced that Purdy was a franchise QB....but now I'm a believer. He is one and should be paid like one. I don't think he should set the market and become the highest paid QB, but he deserves top 10 money.

 

[thestonedkoala]

The Niners got lucky with Purdy. It's very rare to find a franchise QB outside of the 1st round, let alone the last pick of the draft. Most of the top QBs in the NFL are drafted in the 1st round, usually towards to the top of the 1st round.

Dak Prescott - 4th round
Brock Prudy - 7th round
Kirk Cousins - 4th round
Jalen Hurts - 2nd round

Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Joe Flacco are guys drafted in the late half of the 1st round.

That's 7 guys that are considered franchise OR close to it. That's almost 22% of the NFL that has a good QB drafted in the last half of the first round OR after the first round.

Add in Wilson (who won a Super Bowl but has fallen off), Smith (who has been decent), Carr (he was good until suddenly he was not), and some young guys like Howell (probably getting replaced but at least he tried), Levis (apparently they are sticking with him)..and we're not going to bring in guys like Minshew, O'Connell, or Ridder...that's another 3 guys so 1/3 teams had a QB taken in the last part of the 1st round or later as a starting QB

 

[TaLoN]

Dak Prescott - 4th round
Brock Prudy - 7th round
Kirk Cousins - 4th round
Jalen Hurts - 2nd round

Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Joe Flacco are guys drafted in the late half of the 1st round.

That's 7 guys that are considered franchise OR close to it. That's almost 22% of the NFL that has a good QB drafted in the last half of the first round OR after the first round.

Add in Wilson (who won a Super Bowl but has fallen off), Smith (who has been decent), Carr (he was good until suddenly he was not), and some young guys like Howell (probably getting replaced but at least he tried), Levis (apparently they are sticking with him)..and we're not going to bring in guys like Minshew, O'Connell, or Ridder...that's another 3 guys so 1/3 teams had a QB taken in the last part of the 1st round or later as a starting QB

You listed a bunch of QBs from a bunch of different drafts
That doesn't make it easy

 

[MuckOG]

Dak Prescott - 4th round
Brock Prudy - 7th round
Kirk Cousins - 4th round
Jalen Hurts - 2nd round

Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Joe Flacco are guys drafted in the late half of the 1st round.

That's 7 guys that are considered franchise OR close to it. That's almost 22% of the NFL that has a good QB drafted in the last half of the first round OR after the first round.

Add in Wilson (who won a Super Bowl but has fallen off), Smith (who has been decent), Carr (he was good until suddenly he was not), and some young guys like Howell (probably getting replaced but at least he tried), Levis (apparently they are sticking with him)..and we're not going to bring in guys like Minshew, O'Connell, or Ridder...that's another 3 guys so 1/3 teams had a QB taken in the last part of the 1st round or later as a starting QB

How many playoff wins do Prescott and Cousins have combined? 3. 1 for Cousins, 2 for Prescott. Neither of them got past a divisional round and neither one of them I would consider "franchise QB" material.

Alot of grumbling about Hurts coming out of Philly. Not sure how many of their woes this season can be attributed to just him, but he needs to pick it up.

Purdy is one of those late round gems that the Niners got lucky with. When you consider all the QBs taken in the later rounds, he's like 1 in a million. We can keep going that route of selecting QBs late, and maybe in 15-20 years, we finally hit on one.

I don't want just a "good QB", I want one that is special. And like I said, MORE OFTEN THAN NOT those QBs are picked higher in the 1st round.

 

[thestonedkoala]

You listed a bunch of QBs from a bunch of different drafts
That doesn't make it easy

No, but as you can see more QBs are coming out of day two and three picks because of the emphasis on QBs.

Outside of Williams or Maye, I don't see a special QB in this draft that they need to break the bank on, especially how holey this team is. If Maye drops past New England, I'd trade with Arizona a future first, but I don't see that happening.

 

[MuckOG]

No, but as you can see more QBs are coming out of day two and three picks because of the emphasis on QBs.

Outside of Williams or Maye, I don't see a special QB in this draft that they need to break the bank on, especially how holey this team is. If Maye drops past New England, I'd trade with Arizona a future first, but I don't see that happening.

What really matters is if KOC or Vikings brass see a QB that they can develop into something special. I'm higher on McCarthy than you are, that's for sure. If they can get him at #11, great. I just have a feeling he will go higher than that.

 

[thestonedkoala]

What really matters is if KOC or Vikings brass see a QB that they can develop into something special. I'm higher on McCarthy than you are, that's for sure.

I like McCarthy, but I don't want to spend 2 (1sts) on him. The biggest fear is what happened to Carolina to some degree. And again, I see a LOT more holes on this team than most people want to believe. This isn't going to be a one or two year turn around.

 

[MuckOG]

I like McCarthy, but I don't want to spend 2 (1sts) on him. The biggest fear is what happened to Carolina to some degree. And again, I see a LOT more holes on this team than most people want to believe. This isn't going to be a one or two year turn around.

It wouldn't take 2 firsts to move up and get him.

 

[TaLoN]

No, but as you can see more QBs are coming out of day two and three picks because of the emphasis on QBs.

Outside of Williams or Maye, I don't see a special QB in this draft that they need to break the bank on, especially how holey this team is. If Maye drops past New England, I'd trade with Arizona a future first, but I don't see that happening.

They are much more rare to find outside the 1st

 

[thestonedkoala]

It wouldn't take 2 firsts to move up and get him.

Chicago
Washington
New England
Arizona
LA Chargers
New York Giants
Tennessee
Atlanta
Chicago
New York Jets
Minnesota Vikings

Chicago is taking Williams, Washington is a wild card, but probably will take Maye, New England is another wild card and may end up taking Daniels. Let's say that shakes out.

Arizona and LA won't take a QB. New York and Atlanta may end up taking a QB.

Worst case scenario, you have to either trade with Arizona (4th overall pick) or LA Chargers (5th overall pick) to secure McCarthy.

Houston went from 12th to the 3rd and it cost them a 2 (1sts). The 12th and next year's pick.

Philadelphia traded Miami their 6th overall pick for the 12th and next year's first.

It will take two firsts to move up to grab McCarthy.

They are much more rare to find outside the 1st

I mean I showed that 10% of the NFL had QBs taken in the last half or later playing in the NFL. You keep throwing the dart and eventually you hit on it.

 

[TaLoN]

I mean I showed that 10% of the NFL had QBs taken in the last half or later playing in the NFL. You keep throwing the dart and eventually you hit on it.

I've been saying for years that you need to take a QB every year until you hit on one.
That said, we need one early now more than anything else.

Just because 10% of last year's starters was in the last half or later, doesn't make them all franchise QB's.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I've been saying for years that you need to take a QB every year until you hit on one.
That said, we need one early now more than anything else.

Just because 10% of last year's starters was in the last half or later, doesn't make them all franchise QB's.

But a good enough starter around a good enough team can hide some deficiencies. And yes I agree, you need to take QBs every year or so even if they aren't a starter, you can have a good backup.

 

[TaLoN]

Franchise QBs outside the first round in any given draft is rare.
It CAN happen and HAS happened, but not likely.
Hell, even if we hit on one, we need to start developing another.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Franchise QBs outside the first round in any given draft is rare.
It CAN happen and HAS happened, but not likely.
Hell, even if we hit on one, we need to start developing another.

It's funny, if you look at the Super Bowl losers (or winners in some cases)
49ers - Purdy
Eagles - Hurts
Bengals - Burrow (though the winner Stafford was traded for)
Chiefs - Mahomes but Buccaneers had Brady
49ers - Garopollo
Rams - Goff (again Brady)
Patriots - Brady (and Foles!)
Falcons - Ryan (Brady)
Panthers - Newton (Manning trade)
Seahawks - Wilson (Brady again!)
Broncos - Manning (Wilson won this one)

In the last 5 years, 3 of the 5 had guys taken in the later rounds (Purdy, Hurts, Garopollo), Brady is an exception. Mahomes and Burrow are the 1st rounders.

And then you had Goff, Ryan, Newton losing.

But you had Wilson and Brady winning along with Foles.

Brady skews everything though.

 

[Wabit]

I dont think Wilson is getting around 20-25 million, id imagine it would be less than that considering hes being paid 37 million by the Broncos.

Give me Russ at less than 10 million over Baker at 40-45 million easily.

I was just using the QB mentioned in the post I was replying and then tossed some rough cap numbers to where the dead cap would even out.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I don’t consider Purdy a franchise QB. More Shanahan’s system makes him look good.

 

[Sad People]

I also feel like its worth noting that Purdy would not be the QB he is today if he didnt land in SF. It matters where you end up when youre a QB.

 

[Wabit]

It's funny, if you look at the Super Bowl losers (or winners in some cases)
49ers - Purdy
Eagles - Hurts
Bengals - Burrow (though the winner Stafford was traded for)
Chiefs - Mahomes but Buccaneers had Brady
49ers - Garopollo
Rams - Goff (again Brady)
Patriots - Brady (and Foles!)
Falcons - Ryan (Brady)
Panthers - Newton (Manning trade)
Seahawks - Wilson (Brady again!)
Broncos - Manning (Wilson won this one)

In the last 5 years, 3 of the 5 had guys taken in the later rounds (Purdy, Hurts, Garopollo), Brady is an exception. Mahomes and Burrow are the 1st rounders.

And then you had Goff, Ryan, Newton losing.

But you had Wilson and Brady winning along with Foles.

Brady skews everything though.

I think you can open that up to the AFC Championship games to offset your Brady skew.

 

[MuckOG]

I also feel like its worth noting that Purdy would not be the QB he is today if he didnt land in SF. It matters where you end up when youre a QB.

I agree that its important to a QBs success to get drafted by a franchise where they can be developed properly.

I had the same opinion of Purdy going into this season, but i think differently of him now. Sure, some of his success can be attributed to Shanahan's system, but Purdy has shown that he is accurate throwing the ball downfield. Hes not just dinking and dunking the team down the field with screen passes and short slant routes

 

[TaLoN]

I don’t consider Purdy a franchise QB. More Shanahan’s system makes him look good.

I call him one
He's Just like Montana in play style

 

[Digitalbooya]

I call him one
He's Just like Montana in play style

Well, maybe you guys can swing a trade for him once Shanahan gets sick of him like he did with Garoppolo (another QB that looked good for SF).

 

[Minnewildsota]

Well, maybe you guys can swing a trade for him once Shanahan gets sick of him like he did with Garoppolo (another QB that looked good for SF).

Jimmy G is always hurt though

 

[TaLoN]

Well, maybe you guys can swing a trade for him once Shanahan gets sick of him like he did with Garoppolo (another QB that looked good for SF).

Jimmy G. never looked THAT good.