Nolan Patrick: An Up-And-Down Year For The Philadelphia Flyers Centre

[TB87]

Nolan Patrick: An Up-And-Down Year For The Philadelphia Flyers Centre - Last Word on Hockey

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[deadhead]

I'd be interested in seeing the splits from February onward, I thought he really didn't look completely healthy until February. And he didn't get to play a regular shift with Lindblom and Voracek until the last 23 games.

But the scoring gap relative to Corsi and xGF is similar to Lindblom (and Sanheim), in that all showed "rookieitis", that is, a tendency to rush shots and blow scoring chances, this is pretty typical and why many players make a huge jump their second and third seasons, the game slows down and scoring opportunities that they were blowing become goals. Patrick was exposed in the playoffs, where both inexperience and lack of strength as the ice got smaller dragged him down.

The real key with Patrick will be working out this summer, even when his skating improved, he lacked strength, and for a guy his size, upper body strength is a key attribute around the net with people hanging over you, and of course, when it comes to gaining possession in the corners and along the boards, and maintaining puck possession. A year of experience under his belt, a new body now that he can finally workout in the offseson, and I've been predicting that he's going to have a breakout season, especially playing big minutes on a true 2nd line - 50+ ES points.

 

[TB87]

I'd be interested in seeing the splits from February onward, I thought he really didn't look completely healthy until February. And he didn't get to play a regular shift with Lindblom and Voracek until the last 23 games.

But the scoring gap relative to Corsi and xGF is similar to Lindblom (and Sanheim), in that all showed "rookieitis", that is, a tendency to rush shots and blow scoring chances, this is pretty typical and why many players make a huge jump their second and third seasons, the game slows down and scoring opportunities that they were blowing become goals. Patrick was exposed in the playoffs, where both inexperience and lack of strength as the ice got smaller dragged him down.

The real key with Patrick will be working out this summer, even when his skating improved, he lacked strength, and for a guy his size, upper body strength is a key attribute around the net with people hanging over you, and of course, when it comes to gaining possession in the corners and along the boards, and maintaining puck possession. A year of experience under his belt, a new body now that he can finally workout in the offseson, and I've been predicting that he's going to have a breakout season, especially playing big minutes on a true 2nd line - 50+ ES points.

50+ ES points would be awesome! He’s got it in him to do it. Will be fun to watch his progress next year.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Your 40-50 point expectations seems fairly conservative

 

[David St Hubbins]

Nolan Patrick: An Up-And-Down Year For The Philadelphia Flyers Centre - Last Word on Hockey

Up and down season?

Sorry, had to do it.

 

[wankstifier]

He went from the worst player in the league to one of its better centers. Almost a halfway split of terrible and good.

 

[TB87]

Your 40-50 point expectations seems fairly conservative

Fair enough. How much do you think he'll produce?

 

[David St Hubbins]

Speaking for myself, I'd peg him at 50-60 pts, assuming he holds his PP1 slot over Simmonds and stays healthy.

 

[Rebels57]

Speaking for myself, I'd peg him at 50-60 pts, assuming he holds his PP1 slot over Simmonds and stays healthy.

That's a huge jump.

I'm with Ted. I think 40-50 points would be sweet.

 

[David St Hubbins]

I dont think a 25/30/55 year is too outlandish considering he should be getting PP1 time and have either JVR or Lindblom on his left and Jake on his right. Assuming JVR as a linemate with similar 5v5 production as the last couple of years, 30 assists could end up on the low side.

 

[FlyTimmo]

That's a huge jump.

I'm with Ted. I think 40-50 points would be sweet.

I don't think it is. Considering that he paced for ~55 post-Christmas, 50-60 points is where I expect him to end up. Anything less than 50 w/ ample PP time is a tad disappointing.

 

[Rebels57]

Lets also not assume he gets PP1 time over a healthy Simmonds. Lets say he does but unit goes cold. I guarantee the first move made is to swap in Simmonds. I expect the PP1 time to be roughly split between those two. I also expect 5-10 games missed.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Lets also not assume he gets PP1 time over a healthy Simmonds. Lets say he does but unit goes cold. I guarantee the first move made is to swap in Simmonds. I expect the PP1 time to be roughly split between those two. I also expect 5-10 games missed.

I think it more appropriate to scale the points to 82 games. 40-50 points in 60-70 games is fine if injuries do occur.

And maybe.... just maybe... our 2nd unit might not be utter garbage.... maybe.

 

[David St Hubbins]

And maybe.... just maybe... our 2nd unit might not be utter garbage.... maybe.

 

[deadhead]

I don't expect Patrick to get injured, the two injuries were really the same injury and a bad surgeon.
Now that he's healed, as he gets stronger there is no reason right now to think he's injury prone.

I think 65-70 points, 50 ES, and 15-20 on the PP, is within reach playing with JVR/Lindblom and Voracek.

That is not outrageous production for the second season for a #2 pick who might have been #1 and seen as close to Matthews had he not been injured, imagine his pre-draft junior season if he was 100%, good chance he goes ahead of Nico.

 

[Willis88]

I think 50-60 point season with JVR on his line. Also PP1 time will help rack up the points.

 

[Bruckuss]

For my birthday I am going to wish for all the children of the world to hold hands and sing songs of peace, and also for line 1 to continue and line 2 to flourish with a healthy NP and activated? JVR. I've been good this year, so 2 out of 3 isn't out of the question lol

 

[tymed]

I believe it's reasonable to think that with good health and usage, Patrick has a shot at becoming our best player by the end of the year.

 

[Jtown]

I believe it's reasonable to think that with good health and usage, Patrick has a shot at becoming our best player by the end of the year.

he is going to have a top 10 winger on his line, that is a good recipe for success. The issue i have is the left wing spot. Am i wrong for wanting to continue with the lindblom, patrick , voracek line? That line played great at the end of the year , they were unfortunately just snake bitten. That leaves jvr on the 3rd line which is no man's land at this point.

 

[FlyTimmo]

I believe it's reasonable to think that with good health and usage, Patrick has a shot at becoming our best player by the end of the year.

I like the optimism but becoming the best player on our team next year is a pretty monumental task.

His competition:

102 point LW (4th in Hart trophy voting)
76 point C (2nd in Selke voting)
~70 point defenseman who garnered some Norris votes.
PPG+ RW

If he passes even just one of these guys next year then it was a massively successful season for him.

 

[tymed]

I like the optimism but becoming the best player on our team next year is a pretty monumental task.

His competition:

102 point LW (4th in Hart trophy voting)
76 point C (2nd in Selke voting)
~70 point defenseman who garnered some Norris votes.
PPG+ RW

If he passes even just one of these guys next year then it was a massively successful season for him.

Oh forsure. I'm not saying his chances are great so soon I just personally believe they exist. To be even further honest, it stems from the opinion that it's only a matter of time until there is no doubt, so the question for me is when. At some point, he'll be locked into the 1C spot and PP1 spot. Sky is the limit on this kid from there.

 

[Tripod]

Nico had 46 ES points last year. No reason why Patrick can't get 40+.

The big difference in points will be the PP....is he on unit 1 or 2? That could be a swing of 10-20 points.

Maybe that is Hextalls plan...keep Simmonds all year, play him on unit 1 to keep Patrick's points lower. Then sign him to a big, long contract in the summer BEFORE putting him on the 1st unit and seeing the point spike.

Genius!




Or not.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Oh forsure. I'm not saying his chances are great so soon I just personally believe they exist. To be even further honest, it stems from the opinion that it's only a matter of time until there is no doubt, so the question for me is when. At some point, he'll be locked into the 1C spot and PP1 spot. Sky is the limit on this kid from there.

There is a slim, but non-zero chance that happens. But, there is a reason this kid was a 2nd overall pick.

What else could you ask from a center? He is big, strong, smart, fast and dare I say explosive. I remember him having an amazing shot in juniors and with him focusing on that this offseason I can't wait to see what he can become in the goal scoring department.

I'm super excited to watch him next year. Even if Frost and Myers make the team, seeing Patrick is still what I'm looking forward to the most.

 

[Adtar02]

There is a slim, but non-zero chance that happens. But, there is a reason this kid was a 2nd overall pick.

What else could you ask from a center? He is big, strong, smart, fast and dare I say explosive. I remember him having an amazing shot in juniors and with him focusing on that this offseason I can't wait to see what he can become in the goal scoring department.

I'm super excited to watch him next year. Even if Frost and Myers make the team, seeing Patrick is still what I'm looking forward to the most.

The more I think about it I want jvr away from him and Jake. I think jvr would be better with frost as a play maker. As Patrick is the shooter on him line

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

he is going to have a top 10 winger on his line, that is a good recipe for success. The issue i have is the left wing spot. Am i wrong for wanting to continue with the lindblom, patrick , voracek line? That line played great at the end of the year , they were unfortunately just snake bitten. That leaves jvr on the 3rd line which is no man's land at this point.

I think JVR will be on the 2nd line. Patrick is going to get a lot of apples with JVR down low.
Lindblom is ok on the 3rd line. It takes some pressure off him being in a top 6 scoring line and he can just work on his offense with some better matchups