The reason though for last years deadline being so quiet with virtually no overpayments was that most of the teams in the NHL were in cap trouble to begin with.
I think this year will get slightly closer to the norm, with 2nd, 3rds and 4ths bandied around more freely. There are only going to be ~10 teams restricted by the cap at the deadline this year.
Probably all of St. Louis, Dallas, San Jose, Minnesota, Islanders and Columbus will be still in the playoff picture come deadline and they will have a tonne of space between them... Montreal and Detroit could have quite a lot of wiggle room as well.
Last year there were very few team who could do anything without giving a player back or tying themselves in knots.
That being said though I agree that it is unlikely many 1sts will be moved if any at all... that may mean that some GMs get itchy with 2016 picks and value could be had there in terms of picks.