Player Discussion: Nikolaj Ehlers

[QuietContrarian]

What in the world... Is Ehlers not wearing skates? Or did he shrink like 4 inches over the summer?

Think he is w/o skates

Or maybe Foppa grew

More of a disaster tho, is Ehlers hairline looking, uhm, "Older" than Foppas.

 

[Ippenator]

Yes, I believe that the average depends on the number of players and their relative skill level. Average is very much dependent on number and distribution, so I'd question how the average skill level wouldn't be dependent on the number of players and the distribution of the skill we're looking at.

The only way Ehlers would be at best average at a skill and not have hundreds of players be better than him at that skill would be if we're looking at some kind of unimodal uniform distribution where almost all players fall in the middle. Unless you mean mode as the average, and no one ever means mode as the average.

What you're describing contradicts itself when talking about "at best average", as a player of skill level 80 clearly would be superior to a player with skill level 65. If Ehlers is the player with skill level 80 he's above average, and as such not "at best average", and if Ehlers is the player with skill level 65 he would be below average and have hundreds of players in the league better than him. Given that the differences are small, it still seems ridiculous to essentially group 700 players into what appears to amount to 5 skill levels.

I vehemently disagree with your take on average in the NHL. Heck, given that definition, people who say that Laine's only above average skill is his shot have a legit point, which I also strongly disagree with.

Ok, if you really want to make it a semantic issue, then lets just say that I think Ehlers’s hockey IQ is pretty much mediocre. I believe it’s pretty much somewhere in the middle between the worst and the best hockey IQ in the NHL. And most of the NHL players have their IQ relatively close to that level anyway.

Maybe Ehlers is even a bit above the most mediocre skill level with his IQ, but I honestly haven’t seen him show enough in that area to call him good, so I call him mediocre.

 

[Halberdier]

Given that average at best implies that there would be ~300 players in the league with better hockey IQ in the NHL any given season, that does indeed seem like a pretty ridiculous assertion.

Average and median value are totally different concepts. If Ehlers had a median beard growth in NHL, there would be those 300+ guys having better and 300+ people having worse beard growth, depending how much there are players in NHL.

Average, on the other hand means something really different, like Joe Average. Ordinary. Nothing special, not good, not bad. Something most people tend to be, unless it's really polarized feature and not something that would eg. fit the bell curve. If Ehlers has average beard growth, there might be hundreds of guys in the league having pretty similar beard growth than he has. And who knows, only maybe 100 of those having considerably better beard growth and maybe 150 of those having worse.


Edit: my take on Ehlers hockey IQ is that it's is definitely above average, but doesn't match his mcdavidesque speed. When he is going "too fast", he usually simply cannot read those passing opportunities, and that's frustrating to watch. In other words: he skates like madman all over the opponent with great skill, but way too often with horse blinkers on, also seen on that video. I am sure he will get better over time and he can do some very high IQ plays when he is not in a hurry.

 

[Romang67]

Average and median value are totally different concepts. If Ehlers had a median beard growth in NHL, there would be those 300+ guys having better and 300+ people having worse beard growth, depending how much there are players in NHL.

Average, on the other hand means something really different, like Joe Average. Ordinary. Nothing special, not good, not bad. Something most people tend to be, unless it's really polarized feature and not something that would eg. fit the bell curve. If Ehlers has average beard growth, there might be hundreds of guys in the league having pretty similar beard growth than he has. And who knows, only maybe 100 of those having considerably better beard growth and maybe 150 of those having worse.


Edit: my take on Ehlers hockey IQ is that it's is definitely above average, but doesn't match his mcdavidesque speed. When he is going "too fast", he usually simply cannot read those passing opportunities, and that's frustrating to watch. In other words: he skates like madman all over the opponent with great skill, but way too often with horse blinkers on, also seen on that video. I am sure he will get better over time and he can do some very high IQ plays when he is not in a hurry.

I agree with your last paragraph. If Ehlers had elite hockey IQ, he'd be close to McDavid, which he isn't. I took issue with the claim that his hockey IQ is average at best. It's simply not.

I disagree with the rest, strictly mathematically. Unless we have an extremely large number of players with indistinguishable skill level in the middle of the league, a player with average hockey IQ, assuming that it's something quantifiable (which the EASports example must be), will have roughly 300 players with higher hockey IQ in the league. Now, yes, if you refer to Joe Average, that might be a large group. But saying that a player is average at best implies that he would be in the lower 50% of the league. Which he isn't.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Except on breakaways then his IQ seems to be average or below average. If he was above average there he would have had 15 more goals.

 

[Whileee]

Ok, if you really want to make it a semantic issue, then lets just say that I think Ehlers’s hockey IQ is pretty much mediocre. I believe it’s pretty much somewhere in the middle between the worst and the best hockey IQ in the NHL. And most of the NHL players have their IQ relatively close to that level anyway.

Maybe Ehlers is even a bit above the most mediocre skill level with his IQ, but I honestly haven’t seen him show enough in that area to call him good, so I call him mediocre.

I completely disagree. Ehlers has very high hockey IQ, which is why he's so effective and productive. He anticipates the play extremely well and creates tons of space for himself and teammates. His style doesn't fit with some other players, but that doesn't mean he has low IQ.

 

[Duke749]

You know, if you always think you’re the smartest person in the room, it usually means you’re not.

I really don’t understand why some people have to high jack a thread like this.

 

[Halberdier]

I disagree with the rest, strictly mathematically. Unless we have an extremely large number of players with indistinguishable skill level in the middle of the league, a player with average hockey IQ, assuming that it's something quantifiable (which the EASports example must be), will have roughly 300 players with higher hockey IQ in the league. Now, yes, if you refer to Joe Average, that might be a large group. But saying that a player is average at best implies that he would be in the lower 50% of the league. Which he isn't.

There might be something that is lost in translation from English to Swedish, probably. But if speaking of strictly mathematical average, you are wrong. You are talking about mathematical median not average.

Small example. Let's say we have following beard growth rate among 5 NHL players:
1. 10.00 (unit: furlongs per hectofortnite)
2. 0.02
3. 0.01
4. 0.00
5. 0.00

Among those 5, mathematical average is 2.0, and there are exactly 20% guys that are above average and exactly 80% guys below average.
Among those 5, mathematical median is 0.01, and there are exactly 40% (in large groups actually 50%) above and exactly 40% (in large groups actually 50%) below median value.

Thus your statement "But saying that a player is average at best implies that he would be in the lower 50% of the league" is just false, strictly mathematically speaking, and also false if you use average as layman terms, like I guess Ippenator used in the first place.

To correct your statement so that it's not false, it should be:

"But saying that a player is median at best implies that he would be in the lower 50% of the league" <-- that is true, but I don't think @Ippenator did ever mean that.

 

[QuietContrarian]

There might be something that is lost in translation from English to Swedish, probably. But if speaking of strictly mathematical average, you are wrong. You are talking about mathematical median not average.

Small example. Let's say we have following beard growth rate among 5 NHL players:
1. 10.00 (unit: furlongs per hectofortnite)
2. 0.02
3. 0.01
4. 0.00
5. 0.00

Among those 5, mathematical average is 2.0, and there are exactly 20% guys that are above average and exactly 80% guys below average.
Among those 5, mathematical median is 0.01, and there are exactly 40% (in large groups actually 50%) above and exactly 40% (in large groups actually 50%) below median value.

Thus your statement "But saying that a player is average at best implies that he would be in the lower 50% of the league" is just false, strictly mathematically speaking, and also false if you use average as layman terms, like I guess Ippenator used in the first place.

To correct your statement so that it's not false, it should be:

"But saying that a player is median at best implies that he would be in the lower 50% of the league" <-- that is true, but I don't think @Ippenator did ever mean that.

I think we have talked plenty about medians, and averages.
Besides I doubt that is what was meant. as the person also liked the post calling his iq low, and wrote avg. at best, which implies, something else imo.

The way he was talked about back then, when avg at best was thrown around, really did indicate that Ehlers was not a very smart player.

This feels a bit like a backtrack of sorts.

Doesn't matter in the end, as most of us dont agree his IQ is avg at all.

Please don't throw this thread off the rails anymore.

 

[ps241]

Evander Kane really struggled with Hockey IQ he but figured out how to be effective. Ehlers hockey IQ is more than fine. His game will grow in the next few seasons as he enters his prime and it’s going to be even more fun to watch.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Think he is w/o skates

Or maybe Foppa grew

More of a disaster tho, is Ehlers hairline looking, uhm, "Older" than Foppas.

It's beautiful, really. Ehlers and Laine get to bald together.

 

[Romang67]

There might be something that is lost in translation from English to Swedish, probably. But if speaking of strictly mathematical average, you are wrong. You are talking about mathematical median not average.

No, my definition of average is fine. You're assuming an extremely skewed distribution. I'm not. I'm assuming, as was the assumption in the proposed scenario, that most players would be between 65 and 80 in skill level, with some small number of players being outliers either to the right or to the left of that majority.

You're assuming an extremely left skewed distribution for some reason, in which case yes, the average and median may differ quite a lot. I don't know why you would assume that though, especially when it goes against the distribution of skill I responded about.

Either way, I think we've gone on with this for long enough. Since most people seem to be in agreement that Ehlers isn't actually at best average, it seems like a futile conversation.

 

[Halberdier]

No, my definition of average is fine. You're assuming an extremely skewed distribution. I'm not. I'm assuming, as was the assumption in the proposed scenario, that most players would be between 65 and 80 in skill level, with some small number of players being outliers either to the right or to the left of that majority.

You're assuming an extremely left skewed distribution for some reason, in which case yes, the average and median may differ quite a lot. I don't know why you would assume that though, especially when it goes against the distribution of skill I responded about.

Either way, I think we've gone on with this for long enough. Since most people seem to be in agreement that Ehlers isn't actually at best average, it seems like a futile conversation.

I am out of this discussion. Distribution doesn't have to be extremely skewed to just falsify that "average at most means there will be 50% of guys that are better". That's simply mathematical median, and doesn't usually have pretty much nothing to do with average, unless the distribution is artificially even.

As an example almost 2/3 (4/6) of working Finns earn less than average salary, while obviously 1/2 (3/6) of working Finns earn less than median salary.

I used extreme example just to teach you about mathematical average / arithmetic mean. But Finnish salary distribution is pretty even, so that should show why it's just wrong to insists there will be 50% above and 50% under average.

 

[Romang67]

I am out of this discussion. Distribution doesn't have to be extremely skewed to just falsify that "average at most means there will be 50% of guys that are better". That's simply mathematical median, and doesn't usually have pretty much nothing to do with average, unless the distribution is artificially even.

As an example almost 2/3 (4/6) of working Finns earn less than average salary, while obviously 1/2 (3/6) of working Finns earn less than median salary.

I used extreme example just to teach you about mathematical average / arithmetic mean. But Finnish salary distribution is pretty even, so that should show why it's just wrong to insists there will be 50% above and 50% under average.

Again, done responding. Just going to correct your claim about the Finnish salary distribution.

I'ts right skewed. Just like salary distribution is every developed country in the world. Distributions matter.

I've studied and taught math my entire adult life. You can rest assured that I know what I'm talking about. Given that the distribution is relatively normal, which I don't think is an outrageous assumption, mean~median.

We're diverting from the topic, so I'm done responding to this.

 

[1stDan]

I completely disagree. Ehlers has very high hockey IQ, which is why he's so effective and productive. He anticipates the play extremely well and creates tons of space for himself and teammates. His style doesn't fit with some other players, but that doesn't mean he has low IQ.

My only gripe with ehlers is his shooting.

He seems to grip the stick a little too tight lately or something. He is super effective when he gets his shot off quick. But through his droughts he seems to be over thinking.

Going to be fun watching this guy come into his own.

 

[10Ducky10]

I like Ehlers and think in the right situation he could get about 75 points. He gains the zone and has the opposing players in their heels with his speed. His shot is NHL caliber...nothing more, nothing less.

My concerns with Ehlers is the lack of proper use of his linemates. He skates circles around the opposing team in the O zone and ends up shooting a low percentage shot or losing the puck. Timing is everything and he holds on to the puck much too long in the O zone.
I'd really like to see a 3rd line of KC Roslo Ehlers and it could very easily morph into a 3rd line that is a bona fide 2nd line.
People thinking Roslo will be the 2C are dreaming. develop him properly and he will make a fine center but I'm not sure that's what the Jets have in mind for him. He was great playing RW with MP and Little last season.

 

[Duke749]

Some of you act like he can’t improve. Just be patient.

 

[GNP]

It's beautiful, really.Ehlers and Laine get to be bald together.

____________________________________________________

I don't know about Ehler's going bald-- but Laine will be totally bald in the next 2-3 years--he's already lost a good amount of hair on the top of his head.

Good news though--"he can afford a hair transplant"--if he wants one.

 

[Ippenator]

____________________________________________________

I don't know about Ehler's going bald-- but Laine will be totally bald in the next 2-3 years--he's already lost a good amount of hair on the top of his head.

Good news though--"he can afford a hair transplant"--if he wants one.

Or he can just settle in being the bald terrifying giant that is very hard to handle - like Sundin, or Getzlaf. Those dudes have looked just cool playing as bald, so I don’t see a problem with Laine looking like that. Ehlers could fit very well with that style too (the hairstyle, and being hard to handle, but not being a giant though), so no worries really.

 

[Trilliann]

____________________________________________________

I don't know about Ehler's going bald-- but Laine will be totally bald in the next 2-3 years--he's already lost a good amount of hair on the top of his head.

Good news though--"he can afford a hair transplant"--if he wants one.

he's looked like he's gonna be bald tomorrow for years

 

[Vandalay Industries]

I completely disagree. Ehlers has very high hockey IQ, which is why he's so effective and productive. He anticipates the play extremely well and creates tons of space for himself and teammates. His style doesn't fit with some other players, but that doesn't mean he has low IQ.

Can I ask you two things: 1) Is there anything Ehlers is average at in your mind? 2) If you were to make a list of the top-5 Jets-players how would you rank them?

 

[Whileee]

Can I ask you two things: 1) Is there anything Ehlers is average at in your mind? 2) If you were to make a list of the top-5 Jets-players how would you rank them?

I'd say his finishing is less than stellar. I also think his release isn't at a top level (certainly below Laine, Scheifele and Connor in that category).

Among forwards, based on effectiveness now...

Scheifele
Wheeler
Laine
Ehlers
Connor

 

[PhilJets]

Ehlers doesn't have low IQ.
He is just to fast for most people.

If he is any better then he will be border line mcdavid territory already .

Just like Laine people try to download other players attributes because one of their skills is top 5 in the league.

Laine shots
Ehlers skating

 

[Atoyot]

Ehlers doesn't have low IQ.
He is just to fast for most people.

If he is any better then he will be border line mcdavid territory already .

Just like Laine people try to download other players attributes because one of their skills is top 5 in the league.

Laine shots
Ehlers skating

I'd certainly download them if I could.

 

[PhilJets]

I'd certainly download them if I could.

Hahaha

Downplay.

Sorry