Value of: Nikita Zaitsev

[Hunter368]

I want to gauge his value around the NHL. Talking with various Leafs fans, his value in their eyes varies significantly. Rookie season looked good, last year looked very bad, this year not great but not nearly as bad as last year. Pending cap crunch with the Leafs, some guys are likely going to have to be shipped out to make room for more critical players...Zaitsev due to contract seems likely a candidate.

Age 27

Cap hit 4.5 million per year

Term, signed for 5 more years after this one.

RHD

Nikita Zaitsev - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Nikita Zaitsev hockey statistics and profile at hockeydb.com

Vote on his value in your opinion, if the Leafs wanted to trade him to clear cap space. To be clear vote on his value overall around the NHL, not specifically to your team only. Let's try to keep the thread civil.

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[780il]

His value to my team: negative

Around the league imo: 3rd rounder

 

[Hunter368]

Anymore thoughts or votes?

 

[The Podium]

You wont get an accurate answer here because people base opinion on reputation and ignorance.

You as the OP are also guilty of this.

He has a bottom 10 zone start% in the entire league and still manages to have corsi numbers similar to other primarily DFD like Manson, Tanev, Hjarmalsson, etc.

Sure his breakout leaves a lot to be desired, but defensively he is doing well considering his usage.

As a rare RHD who is objectively a top 4 D, he has value around the league. But you will have everyone coming in here asking for a 1st + from us to dump the contract.

Personally Id rather keep him. He performs admirably at a 4.5 mill cap hit.

 

[varano]

You wont get an accurate answer here because people base opinion on reputation and ignorance.

You as the OP are also guilty of this.

He has a bottom 10 zone start% in the entire league and still manages to have corsi numbers similar to other primarily DFD like Manson, Tanev, Hjarmalsson, etc.

Sure his breakout leaves a lot to be desired, but defensively he is doing well considering his usage.

As a rare RHD who is objectively a top 4 D, he has value around the league. But you will have everyone coming in here asking for a 1st + from us to dump the contract.

Personally Id rather keep him. He performs admirably at a 4.5 mill cap hit.

At this point, I think babcock needs to have a talk with him and say... Your a defence only guy at this point. Shut down exclusively. He gives away possession when he tries to be offensive. His shot sucks and doesn't hit the net.

 

[Nizdizzle]

I'm almost positive that this will be contrary to popular opinion, but I'd imagine his value around the league would be slightly higher than a 2nd round pick. Negative opinions on HF tend to bounce around and become hyperbole rather quick. I'm not a big Zaitsev fan, but he is playing 21+ minutes a game on one of the top teams in the NHL. He can contribute and both ends of the ice, but doesn't excel at either. His contract, while not being a steal, is probably around market value for what he would receive as a UFA.

As to the Leafs trading him, I think that is a pipedream. Hainsey is leaving next season, and the Leafs basically have nothing else on the right side of the defense. There are other players the Leafs can move that wouldn't hurt the team as much (looking at you - Brown & Kapanen).

 

[Alklha]

I’d that a mid-round pick is probably about what he’d go for. His salary is partially based on offensive production that isn’t there anymore and it’s a lot of term for a GM to take a gamble of him living up to the cap hit.

It still only takes 1 GM to think otherwise, which is why these things are always difficult to predict.

 

[Baksfamous112]

The proble isn’t the player as I think he’s an NHL bottom pairing guy. The problem is his cap hit and term. Way too high for way too long.

Therefor, negative value to me

 

[A1LeafNation]

#4 RHD

2nd rounder atleast

 

[sparxx87]

The proble isn’t the player as I think he’s an NHL bottom pairing guy. The problem is his cap hit and term. Way too high for way too long.

Therefor, negative value to me

Well, that would be your mistake. He’s a good defender who was never a 30 point guy but a 1 year sample on PP1 had people thinking he was. This year he’s shown again to be a very solid defenseman who can play hard minutes but he isn’t a puck mover and he isn’t going to add much offensively.

....but given the current composition, he’s still a huge asset to the group.

Babcock isn’t deploying him as such if he’s only a bottom pairing defender. Give your head a shake.

 

[Baksfamous112]

The proble isn’t the player as I think he’s an NHL bottom pairing guy. The problem is his cap hit and term. Way too high for way too long.

Therefor, negative value to me

To add to this:

- He’s on pace for ~ 5 points this season
- He’s +1 on a team that is +28
- His advanced stats shows he’s barely holding on 3rd pairing average stats
- He’s signed 5 more years after this one
- He’s making top 4 money

Did I miss something else?

Edit: I bet every Leafs fans voted for 2nd/3rd round pick while the rest of the league voted negative value

 

[member 157595]

He's not bad without the puck. He's not good with it. I don't mind having him on the team but he's signed for too long and too much money. Lou Lamoriello apparently never met a long-term contract he didn't like.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Well, that would be your mistake. He’s a good defender who was never a 30 point guy but a 1 year sample on PP1 had people thinking he was. This year he’s shown again to be a very solid defenseman who can play hard minutes but he isn’t a puck mover and he isn’t going to add much offensively.

....but given the current composition, he’s still a huge asset to the group.

Babcock isn’t deploying him as such if he’s only a bottom pairing defender. Give your head a shake.

He didn’t pass the eye test either with a (limited) games I watched this year. He’s an offensive black hole, his positioning is meh at best, his first pass is terrible and he gets beat along the board/in front of the net wayy too often.

Just because he’s a black hole offensively doesn’t necessarily make him a good defensive D-man. Toronto gambled on him and they lost. It happens

 

[4thline]

You wont get an accurate answer here because people base opinion on reputation and ignorance.

You as the OP are also guilty of this.

He has a bottom 10 zone start% in the entire league and still manages to have corsi numbers similar to other primarily DFD like Manson, Tanev, Hjarmalsson, etc.

Sure his breakout leaves a lot to be desired, but defensively he is doing well considering his usage.

As a rare RHD who is objectively a top 4 D, he has value around the league. But you will have everyone coming in here asking for a 1st + from us to dump the contract.

Personally Id rather keep him. He performs admirably at a 4.5 mill cap hit.

Great post. He's got good in zone defense, a 4D isn't going to be great at multiple aspects of the game, or they'd be rated higher than a 4

 

[sparxx87]

He didn’t pass the eye test either with a (limited) games I watched this year. He’s an offensive black hole, his positioning is meh at best, his first pass is terrible and he gets beat along the board/in front of the net wayy too often.

Just because he’s a black hole offensively doesn’t necessarily make him a good defensive D-man. Toronto gambled on him and they lost. It happens

Yeah, I strongly disagree... and based on his usage, I’d venture to guess Mike Babcock who watches him everyday, also doesn’t agree with you.

He’s very good along the wall and one of the best at defending the cycle. He plays physical and makes so many simple plays that often get overlooked by the basic fan. It’s not surprising that a stat watcher and casual observer like yourself would miss this stuff. It happens.

 

[lebdafor norris]

To add to this:

- He’s on pace for ~ 5 points this season
- He’s +1 on a team that is +28
- His advanced stats shows he’s barely holding on 3rd pairing average stats
- He’s signed 5 more years after this one
- He’s making top 4 money

Did I miss something else?

Edit: I bet every Leafs fans voted for 2nd/3rd round pick while the rest of the league voted negative value

Last year this claim might have been accurate but this year his numbers has been fine, his TOI QOC suggest that his been facing borderline top pairing competition all year while his Defensive zone start % is actually 18th/157 among Dman with at least 300 min played in the season. Yet despite this, his Expected GA/60 is the lowest among the Leafs top 4 D (Rielly, Gards and Hainsey), his relative, high danger corsi is a very respectable (-1.96) when you consider the amount of defensive zone starts his playing and his actual GA/60 is a low (considering his defensive workload) 2.02, only Gardiner has a lower GA/60 on the Leafs top 4.

 

[Kamiccolo]

He didn’t pass the eye test either with a (limited) games I watched this year. He’s an offensive black hole, his positioning is meh at best, his first pass is terrible and he gets beat along the board/in front of the net wayy too often.

Just because he’s a black hole offensively doesn’t necessarily make him a good defensive D-man. Toronto gambled on him and they lost. It happens

If he was as bad as is being stated, and he played the minutes he does, he would be getting caved, and NOT putting up numbers that put him along side of "defensive top pairing D" the Leafs should "move Nylander for or 1st + ". Guys like Tanev, Hjarmalsson, and Josh "Wouldn't trade him for Nylander" Manson.

 

[Predsrule]

Half say 2nd (leaf Homer’s) half say negative (leaf haters) so prob say call it down the middle and call it a day. 4.5 isn’t a huge Amont in today’s nhl I think he’s an ok number 4 from my viewings. Far from a bargin but not type of contract that can’t be moved imo.

 

[sansabri]

Wouldn't take him for free.

 

[FalcorMulch]

It's an objectively bad contract but it gets exaggerated so badly on this site (and elsewhere). He's a serviceable below average second pair/above average third pair caliber right handed D and a good penalty killer at $4.5 million. That's not negative value. Likely somewhere between a 2nd and 3rd (Roman Polak got traded for a 2nd, twice).

Don't see the Leafs moving him though. We have no one on the right side and he's been getting better as the season progresses. Hainsey on the first pair is a much, much bigger problem than Zaitsev on the second pair.

 

[Spirit of 67]

I have no idea what value he holds. Probably nothing or less because of his contract.

The best thing to do is give him more time to see if he can live up to that contract.

 

[Commander Clueless]

I think he's a decent #4 guy, but is slightly overpaid on a term that is much too long.

Might fetch a mid-low pick from a team with cap space, but I'm guessing the most plausible scenario he would ever be traded in would be as a way to move salary in a package to bring in an upgrade.

As it stands right now, he fills a need for the Leafs and is almost certainly worth more to Toronto than anyone else would be willing to pay.

 

[gamer1035]

Too much term. Negative value.

 

[Mickey Marner]

2nd/3rd. On July 1st 2019, 4.5 AAV x 5 years with a limited NTC will be market value for a free agent 28 year old 4/5 defenseman.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

As to the Leafs trading him, I think that is a pipedream. Hainsey is leaving next season, and the Leafs basically have nothing else on the right side of the defense. There are other players the Leafs can move that wouldn't hurt the team as much (looking at you - Brown & Kapanen).

Re: 2nd paragraph. I've seen various posts (i.e. CapFriendly armchair) about next year's Leafs roster that meets the anticipated cap of $83 m next year ($3.5 increase). One thing that I've noticed is that our defense looks a little thin and shaky. Not sure how we can afford to get better defenders to fill the holes of those potential defenders we are trading away, especially with the kind of (limited) money that we will have to spend.