Nikita 'Not A Cap Dump' Zaitsev

[TheScandal89]

I think hes a 3rd pairing guy to be honest...
Rielly - ??????
Dermott - Gardiner
Hainsey - Zaitsev

Is what I'd like to see by years end. Doesn't have to be some superstar rightie but there's gotta be someone available who is better on the right side then what we got.

And yes I realize i shifted Gardiner to the right side in hopes that being on his offside will force him to make quick smart plays with the puck instead of overthinking and making poor plays/passes. It's probably to late to try that but a man can wish lol.

 

[Not My Tempo]

In what way is Zaitsev “stable”? His isolated shot generation is slightly below average. His isolated shot suppression is waaaaaay below average. He doesn’t deny zone entries, complete clean zone exits or controlled zone entries. On the PK he gives up a ton of shots as well, and the only reason our PK isn’t worse when he’s on the ice is because Andersen has an absurd Sv% on the PK. Saying he eats up minutes isn’t a good thing if we get outplayed during those minutes.

 

[TheProspector]

He's been bad, man. Babcock is wrong. He gets serially hemmed in the zone. He's also terrible at entry defense. And he's useless offensively. This is why the team gives up nearly 70 shot attempts/60 when he's on the ice, and gets just 57 for. When he's on the ice, the Leafs take 57% more penalties than they draw.

Of D-men with 200+ minutes this season, he's 3rd worst in the league at shot attempt against rate.

And, yes, he's given difficult defensive deployments. But he's getting destroyed on them.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

I don't think you understand what I'm saying.

It's not a question of turnovers, it's a question of supporting your partner and putting them in a position to succeed. Gardiner has his issues, but he regularly makes himself a good option and pulls attention away from his partner.

Zaitsev on the hand doesn't know when to release/get open and always puts his partner in bad spots by passing to them under pressure, putting them on their backhand, etc..

He did this with Rielly year 1 and he's done it ever since.

Hmmm yeah I can see now how I took that comment in the wrong context, that's what happens when you're glossing through a thread after a couple brews!

To be honest, I haven't paid much attention to his positioning in terms of whether he puts himself in a good spot relative to his partner so I can't really refute your claim. He's seemed like he's been playing a fairly steady, low key game this year which is what he needs to focus on doing though.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

he has a negative goal differential and a fairly high PDO. that's pretty alarming honestly. he's going to be drowning once that normalizes

 

[Luminiferous]

So, where do you see the Leafs going with Zaitsev ? Riding his contract out with the Leafs as a 5th/6th man? Hoping for the best all along the way.

I still wonder what the hell Lou did for the Leafs. I personally do not think had any positive effect on the franchise.

 

[A1LeafNation]

I think he’s getting the tough assignments and a lot of ice time. I think he will be okay.

 

[Not My Tempo]

So, where do you see the Leafs going with Zaitsev ? Riding his contract out with the Leafs as a 5th/6th man? Hoping for the best all along the way.

I still wonder what the hell Lou did for the Leafs. I personally do not think had any positive effect on the franchise.

He only has a NTC so worst case scenario they can leave him exposed in the Seattle expansion draft

 

[zeke]

Don't know what people expect from this guy but he's looked fine to me. Definitely better than last year. Don't care so much about points like most do on here as long as he can get the puck out of our zone without turning it over or icing it like his partner loves to do.

I mean, this is precisely his big problem.

 

[zeke]

I think he’s getting the tough assignments and a lot of ice time. I think he will be okay.

he's getting the easiest competition of the top 4, by a good margin.

 

[A1LeafNation]

he's getting the easiest competition of the top 4, by a good margin.

I see, so none of us think he can be a top 4 on this team?

 

[Gallagbi]

They don't compliment each other that much considering both are incredibly weak under pressure. You forecheck them heavily and they will fail to get it out the majority of the time.

Gardiner is at his best under pressure and worst with time to over think

 

[zeke]

the good news is that Ozzy seems to be a legit upgrade on Zaitsev.

the defense would probably be upgraded significantly just by swapping the 2nd and 3rd pairings.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I see, so none of us think he can be a top 4 on this team?

doesn't look like it. and if he can't be in the top 4, he can't be on the team. it would be great if Dubas could get rid of him somehow

 

[Apotheosis]

The real question is, how do we go about getting rid of him?

 

[zeke]

The real question is, how do we go about getting rid of him?

first step would be to Phaneuf him - drop him down into the easiest matchups to make him look as attractive as possible.

and the thing is, with Dermott and Ozzy playing so well, this is a very easy thing to do.

 

[Not My Tempo]

I see, so none of us think he can be a top 4 on this team?

Not consistently no. He’s also not young, so while he isn’t going to experience age related decline he’s also not going to get much better. I will admit I like how Babs sticks up for him every chance he gets though. Zaitsev’s confidence issues are a problem, and I think Babs does a good job trying to mitigate them.

 

[Apotheosis]

first step would be to Phaneuf him - drop him down into the easiest matchups to make him look as attractive as possible.

and the thing is, with Dermott and Ozzy playing so well, this is a very easy thing to do.

I would not disagree with that at all. Having him not play as much might help us overall.

 

[StevenB]

Zaitsev doesn't have chemistry with Rielly or Gardiner. He was fine last year when he was playing with Dermott (i'm pretty sure thats who it was closer t0 the end of the year)

 

[thewave]

Zaitsev doesn't have chemistry with Rielly or Gardiner. He was fine last year when he was playing with Dermott (i'm pretty sure thats who it was closer t0 the end of the year)

I think you're right. Dermott is going to be quite the defender though and if he can make Z look good, that's good for us. It's not that Z stinks or anything. He is the low end of #4 and when Jake turns the corner at the end of NOV as per usual and he still looks bad, well, we know who is up for grabs at expansion unless he is traded.

 

[Zybalto]

Heh,

Time to drop some truth bombs in here I guess.....and its especially disconcerting seeing stats guys not paying attention.

Said in an earlier thread before the Pens game that Gardiner was looking like he was breaking out finally after his fractured camp and rough start that led to some pretty mediocre stats to start the season against average 2nd pair QoC despite being buried in defensive zone starts. I think Babs probably saw that happening too so what was his solution? Ramp the hell out of their QoC.......and they have only been our best pairing since then.

Over the last 5 games, not only have they continued to be buried in the defensive zone, they have seen harder QoC than any 2nd pairing in the league....and have done better than expected.

In Zaitsevs case, its brought his overall 5v5 QoC TOI numbers from sitting at 29.17 after the first 7 games to 29.46 after 12. Thats a crazy jump in that short a period of time. As of right now, that ranks Zaitsev 43rd out of the 173 dmen with 100+ minutes played (and third out of the top 4 on the Leafs) but Id be interested to see what his actual QoC TOI has been over the last 5 games. (not quite sure where to find that)

So over the last 5 games, he's not only been buried in the defensive zone but he's also playing against elite competition? Some of you might be thinking :"Thats all fine and well but how were his numbers?"

CF% 48.62
SCF% 53.01
HDCF% 56.06

Pretty damn solid numbers considering his zone starts, his QoC and the fact he is never used when the Leafs are pushing hard to get back into a game and the other team is sitting back but is almost always used when the Leafs are ahead and the team is trying to hold a lead.(both of which have happened during this stretch).

I'd actually like to give it up for Gards as he has found his groove again and pushed the 2nd pair to take some of the rough usage off of Rielly/Hainsey. I think the Jets games really opened my eyes as to how well they were playing as they were significantly better against the Jets top line. Their early season numbers will continue to hurt them for a bit but if they keep playing this way, they should have no problem erasing the early season issues.

 

[Zybalto]

In what way is Zaitsev “stable”? His isolated shot generation is slightly below average. His isolated shot suppression is waaaaaay below average. He doesn’t deny zone entries, complete clean zone exits or controlled zone entries. On the PK he gives up a ton of shots as well, and the only reason our PK isn’t worse when he’s on the ice is because Andersen has an absurd Sv% on the PK. Saying he eats up minutes isn’t a good thing if we get outplayed during those minutes.

If by absurd, do you mean absurdly low?....maybe not considering the point you are trying to make but 46th out of 64 keepers in the league doesn't seem all that good to be honest.

Zaitsev ranks around the middle of the pack in terms of shots allowed on the PK/60. I'd hate to see what you think about all those scrubs he's got better numbers than when it comes to shot suppression on the PK. Letang, Doughty, Giordano, Chara, Fowler, Hedman, Provorov, etc. etc, etc.....

 

[Not My Tempo]

If by absurd, do you mean absurdly low?....maybe not considering the point you are trying to make but 46th out of 64 keepers in the league doesn't seem all that good to be honest.

Zaitsev ranks around the middle of the pack in terms of shots allowed on the PK/60. I'd hate to see what you think about all those scrubs he's got better numbers than when it comes to shot suppression on the PK. Letang, Doughty, Giordano, Chara, Fowler, Hedman, Provorov, etc. etc, etc.....

From 2016-2018, of Goalies that have played more than 500 minutes on the PK (So starters), Andersen is 2nd in terms of 4v5 dSv% (Sv% - xSv%). The only goalie higher than him is Gibson.

 

[Zybalto]

he has a negative goal differential and a fairly high PDO. that's pretty alarming honestly. he's going to be drowning once that normalizes

His PDO is statistically insignificant.....as are the PDOs of Rielly, Hainsey and Gardiner IMO (although Gards and Hainsey are getting a bit high), all of which are higher than Zaitsevs.

7 goals for and 8 against 5v5 on the season against solid competition in a one sided defensive role is alarming? What do you think about Dermott's 3 goals for and 7 against in half the minutes against scrubs in offensive zone starts? (Here I would bring up PDO in his defense though)

Zaitsev 5v5 goals against/60 is above average for the league, despite his tough usage.

 

[IPS]

When a guy like Zaitsev is getting the kind of minutes/usage he's getting, you know you have a serious problem at RHD.

Acquire an upgrade for that RHD and move Zaitsev down and give him less responsibility and things will look much, much better as a whole.