Player Discussion Nick Paul Appreciation Thread

[Micklebot]

This is the new one on the sens board eh. Same excuse for Debrincat. If you are good you are good if you arent you arent. If you have to completely rely on the players you are playing with you arent very good.

New or not, it's a relevant fact,

Joseph spent more than have his time with centers that were slotted higher than they should be. Whether you're willing to admit it. that has implications on the whole line. Joseph had his own struggles as well, but people acknowledging mitigating factors isn't a problem,

 

[Xspyrit]

There is understanding what he brings, and being happy with going in a different direction for the cash and roster spot.

If that was the case, maybe. But we didn't save cash, or barely

We have some kids with intangibles that could start on the 4th line for us with their ELC while we use cap space on a better forward.

Nick Paul is an unicorn. He is to a 3rd line what Brady Tkachuk is for a 1st line. He's not a powerforward, but more an industrious vintage 2-way player. He's a mountain

Paul’s leadership is awesome, but we have G, we have Brady and Chabby, Hammy, and we’re looking to move on.

Paul is in a good spot for what he is want what he brings. I’m happy for him, and also don’t want him back.

It's not really about his leadership but more the way he plays and thinks the game

 

[HSF]

wait there are people still defending this getting rid of Paul? At the time I was okay with Joseph but Paul is superior in every way possible for the same amount of money

 

[Very Stable Genius]

I love the big circlejerk for Paul here, meanwhile on the Tampa board they were absolutely ripping him for being "soft as butter" "no consistency" "No hockey IQ". Glad we don't have that terrible contract on the books.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

Hindsight is 20 20... but f*** me how good would nick Paul look on a third line with pinto and batherson or kubalik?

He's exactly what this time team is missing in the bottom 6.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Hindsight is 20 20... but f*** me how good would nick Paul look on a third line with pinto and batherson or kubalik?

He's exactly what this time team is missing in the bottom 6.

We got guys up and coming who would make it unnecessary to have him.

Grieg, Ostapchuk, Kastelic, Crookshank, Sokolov all can play bottom-6 minutes and not look out of place.

Nick Paul was in a similar position to a lot of the guys mentioned; took him some time to crack an NHL lineup.

 

[JD1]

If that was the case, maybe. But we didn't save cash, or barely



Nick Paul is an unicorn. He is to a 3rd line what Brady Tkachuk is for a 1st line. He's not a powerforward, but more an industrious vintage 2-way player. He's a mountain



It's not really about his leadership but more the way he plays and thinks the game

Thinks the game? Nick Paul has 54 even strength assists in his career. A guy with high IQ that thinks the game well surely would have more than that in 328 games played.

Nick was good on draws and he was a good PKer. His best asset as a player was as a winger that could get in quick on the forecheck and disrupt a breakout. He's not even a big hitter, credited with about 1.5 hits per game in his career.

Nick Paul career
Hits / game 1.53
Ppg .34
AAV 3.15
6 years left on the deal
Signed thru age 33 season

Mathieu Joseph career
Hits / game 1.54
Ppg .34
AAV 2.95
3 years left on the deal
Signed thru age 28 season

Those stats are with Joseph coming off an injury riddled down year and Paul having matched his career high for points.

And the big criticism of Joseph seems to be the number of goals he scored last year. Comparing careers, their stats are .... Identical. .15g/game. Again, that's with Nick coming off a career year with 17 goals and Joseph having a rough year.

I certainly get that Paul was a fan favourite but you look at these players and what they bring and I'd rather have the lower AAV and 3 years left to pay it.

 

[Micklebot]

Thinks the game? Nick Paul has 54 even strength assists in his career. A guy with high IQ that thinks the game well surely would have more than that in 328 games played.

Nick was good on draws and he was a good PKer. His best asset as a player was as a winger that could get in quick on the forecheck and disrupt a breakout. He's not even a big hitter, credited with about 1.5 hits per game in his career.

Nick Paul career
Hits / game 1.53
Ppg .34
AAV 3.15
6 years left on the deal
Signed thru age 33 season

Mathieu Joseph career
Hits / game 1.54
Ppg .34
AAV 2.95
3 years left on the deal
Signed thru age 28 season

Those stats are with Joseph coming off an injury riddled down year and Paul having matched his career high for points.

And the big criticism of Joseph seems to be the number of goals he scored last year. Comparing careers, their stats are .... Identical. .15g/game. Again, that's with Nick coming off a career year with 17 goals and Joseph having a rough year.

I certainly get that Paul was a fan favourite but you look at these players and what they bring and I'd rather have the lower AAV and 3 years left to pay it.

I've defended Joseph a fair bit around here, he's certainly getting hammered on recency bias imo, but to be fair, Paul does provide value outside of pts that Joseph does not. He's an effective shut down guy, and while he doesn't hit a ton, his size and strength does have an impact on how effective his hits are and how well he does digging pucks out of corners relative to Joseph.

I wouldn't have given Paul the deal he got, he's very inconsistent with his offensive game, seems like he can take over shifts one day then go cold for weeks afterwards but I'd argue he's more effective when not scoring that Joseph. Joseph is good enough defensively, but does have some brain farts. His speed does add a dynamic that is tough to defend, but he's not a finisher. both guys can play a role up and down the lineup, but Joseph imo needs to be chipping in offensively to be contribute.

 

[JD1]

I've defended Joseph a fair bit around here, he's certainly getting hammered on recency bias imo, but to be fair, Paul does provide value outside of pts that Joseph does not. He's an effective shut down guy, and while he doesn't hit a ton, his size and strength does have an impact on how effective his hits are and how well he does digging pucks out of corners relative to Joseph.

I wouldn't have given Paul the deal he got, he's very inconsistent with his offensive game, seems like he can take over shifts one day then go cold for weeks afterwards but I'd argue he's more effective when not scoring that Joseph. Joseph is good enough defensively, but does have some brain farts. His speed does add a dynamic that is tough to defend, but he's not a finisher. both guys can play a role up and down the lineup, but Joseph imo needs to be chipping in offensively to be contribute.

The thing I like about Paul over Joseph is Paul takes draws and does well in the dot.

+/- takes a ton of criticism but if we want to look at Paul as a shut down guy and call Joseph good enough defensively, Joseph was +5 last year in Ottawa.

Joseph has a career takeaway/giveaway ratio of 1.47, Paul has 1.81. They both do a good job of taking pucks away.

If Joseph isn't a finisher what is Nick Paul? Joseph is coming off the worst shooting season of his career (by far) and has a career shooting percentage of 12.9%. Paul is coming off statistically his best season yet he's a career 9% shooter. So over their careers to date, Joseph scores on a much higher % of his shots than Paul and yet he's not a finisher, so what is Paul?

I agree there's a lot of recency bias in this comparison

 

[Micklebot]

The thing I like about Paul over Joseph is Paul takes draws and does well in the dot.

+/- takes a ton of criticism but if we want to look at Paul as a shut down guy and call Joseph good enough defensively, Joseph was +5 last year in Ottawa.

Joseph has a career takeaway/giveaway ratio of 1.47, Paul has 1.81. They both do a good job of taking pucks away.

If Joseph isn't a finisher what is Nick Paul? Joseph is coming off the worst shooting season of his career (by far) and has a career shooting percentage of 12.9%. Paul is coming off statistically his best season yet he's a career 9% shooter. So over their careers to date, Joseph scores on a much higher % of his shots than Paul and yet he's not a finisher, so what is Paul?

I agree there's a lot of recency bias in this comparison

Well, I never said Nick Paul was a finisher, but his value imo stems from stuff other than offence. I don't put Paul out there for offense, it's just gravy.

- Yes, Paul can play center in a pinch, and take draws as a winger, that's a plus for him.
- when I say Paul is more of a shut down presence, it's based on how he plays, who we'd put him out against, and the role he was playing. I'm more comfortable with the way Paul stays above the puck, reloads on the forcheck, defends in his end, gets out to the point to blocks shots, ect. Joseph always felt like he was trying to get sprung for the breakout. That might be a coaching thing, playing guys to their strength and such, but it's my observation. As for plus minus, I personally see the stat as too noisy to pay any attention to, but again, I'm not suggesting Joseph is bad defensively, just that it's less of a plus for him.
- Takeaways, Paul has about .62 per game, vs .44 per game for Joseph, I've never liked bundling takeaways and giveaways together, as they describe very different things and situations in which they occur are very different. imo doing so creates noise rather than form a useful data point. Joseph does record fewer giveaways per game by a small margin for what it's worth,

Anyways, I think they are more comparable than people are willing to admit, if they were on the same contract, I might lean a bit towards Paul because I prefer his style of play and versatility, but I'm among the few that doesn't want to get rid of Joseph as though he's a hindrance to the team with his contract.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Give Paul Jo's contract on the Sens. Would we need to add a sweetener to move Paul? Would Paul pass through waivers?

 

[BondraTime]

Don't think there is much difference between the two moving forward, though one obviously had a very big off year

Looking at contracts, I'd much rather have Joseph on the books than Paul

 

[Micklebot]

Give Paul Jo's contract on the Sens. Would we need to add a sweetener to move Paul? Would Paul pass through waivers?

Here's Paul's last 56 games stat line.

56gp 6g 8a 14pts -4 15:34/game

Vs Joseph

56 gp 3g 15a 18pts +5 14:01/game

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Here's Paul's last 56 games stat line.

56gp 6g 8a 14pts -4 15:34/game

Vs Joseph

56 gp 3g 15a 18pts +5 14:01/game

Nice. So you are saying he would need a sweetener.. to move given Jo's contract?

 

[Micklebot]

Nice. So you are saying he would need a sweetener.. to move given Jo's contract?

what I'm saying is recency bias clouds judgement, and trying to move either in the current environment would probably need a sweetener because teams don't have space for guys that aren't producing.

The right move in both cases is likely to hold onto the player and hope they bounce back.

Grass is always greener on the other side, HFSens has put the microscope on Joseph and determined his contract is an anchor, but are oblivious that Paul had a brutal finish to the season. the more light you shine on him, the less appealing he is

 

[bicboi64]

I doubt Paul would have the regression Joseph had for us, even with injuries. In the event that we want to move Paul for cap reasons, he could probably be moved in a hockey trade to several teams, even if he signed a long-term deal here. The only thing Joseph has over Paul is speed.

 

[JD1]

what I'm saying is recency bias clouds judgement, and trying to move either in the current environment would probably need a sweetener because teams don't have space for guys that aren't producing.

The right move in both cases is likely to hold onto the player and hope they bounce back.

Grass is always greener on the other side, HFSens has put the microscope on Joseph and determined his contract is an anchor, but are oblivious that Paul had a brutal finish to the season. the more light you shine on him, the less appealing he is

I think the players are very comparable statistically and anyone interested in acquiring Joseph would obviously have more insight into his injuries last year and how they may have tied in to performance which is something us internet GMs don't have

I also think Joseph's contract would be easier to move than Paul's given the much shorter duration and their respective ages.

 

[HSF]

has Joseph regressed or is this what he is?

Tampa was also waiting for him to breakout which he never did with them

 

[BondraTime]

has Joseph regressed or is this what he is?

Tampa was also waiting for him to breakout which he never did with them

He’s a solid ~10g, ~30p bottom 6er who is great on the PK, who can jump up if needed.

Last year, he wasn’t that, though he was still a 26p/82 game guy last year.

Had an extremely low goal total that will likely rebound this season.

 

[Micklebot]

has Joseph regressed or is this what he is?

Tampa was also waiting for him to breakout which he never did with them

the larger sample suggests he had a poor season relative to his norm, particularly when it comes to goals which seems to be the go to criticism.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think the idea that Joseph could explode is unreasonable, but he should be able to be a ~15goal, ~30point guy on a decent 3rd line and at least earn most of his contract left here. Sure as shit needs to be better than last year, but I'm sure he'd be the first to admit that.

 

[Micklebot]

I think the idea that Joseph could explode is unreasonable, but he should be able to be a ~15goal, ~30point guy on a decent 3rd line and at least earn most of his contract left here. Sure as shit needs to be better than last year, but I'm sure he'd be the first to admit that.

I don't think anyone is saying Joseph will explode, ~15 goal 30 pts guy is what he was when we traded for him, that's his career average before this past season. That's a pretty reasonable expectation for him moving forward.

Personally, I see him exploding, and him continuing to struggle the way he did last year as the two extremes of the pendulum,

 

[Ice-Tray]

If that was the case, maybe. But we didn't save cash, or barely



Nick Paul is an unicorn. He is to a 3rd line what Brady Tkachuk is for a 1st line. He's not a powerforward, but more an industrious vintage 2-way player. He's a mountain



It's not really about his leadership but more the way he plays and thinks the game

I disagree.

Nick Paul is not a unicorn on any line. He is a bottom six guy that does a lot of things, none particularly well or with consistency. He doesn’t really stand out in any way save for the occasional game where he gets mad enough to get physically involved, or scores a couple goals on sweet moves.

He’s nothing like Brady in any facet beyond working hard while on the ice, we should get that straight.

He’s a fine player when you need a versatile roster player in the bottom six, but that contract length is brutal given his abilities. He was absolutely a great story of perseverance and dedication to hockey, and had a nice run in a contract year to set himself up for life, but I wouldn’t want him here on that deal, or even Joseph’s deal to be honest.

I prefer Joseph’s speed, especially on the PK, over any single trait that Paul brings. I like the bottom six to be comprised of guys who have at least one excellent skill, where as Paul is more like Tom Pyatt, or Dylan Gambrel; Jack of all trades, master of none.

Fan favourite, with some weird dick fetish jokes, but I don’t miss his presence on the roster at this point.

 

[Xspyrit]

I disagree.

Nick Paul is not a unicorn on any line. He is a bottom six guy that does a lot of things, none particularly well or with consistency. He doesn’t really stand out in any way save for the occasional game where he gets mad enough to get physically involved, or scores a couple goals on sweet moves.

He’s nothing like Brady in any facet beyond working hard while on the ice, we should get that straight.

He’s a fine player when you need a versatile roster player in the bottom six, but that contract length is brutal given his abilities. He was absolutely a great story of perseverance and dedication to hockey, and had a nice run in a contract year to set himself up for life, but I wouldn’t want him here on that deal, or even Joseph’s deal to be honest.

Ok but nothing in my post said he was like Brady. I said he is "to a 3rd line what Brady is for a 1st line". It means in terms of impact. There's a vast difference between a 1st and 3rd line so of course it implies that he's really not in the same tier.

His contract is not brutal at all... His AAV is pretty good for a high end 3rd liner. Look at Pageau's for example. Of course the 7 years makes it a big risky because it gives more time for injuries to derail a career again but IIRC the deal in place in Ottawa was for 5 years, which would have been perfect for us

I like the bottom six to be comprised of guys who have at least one excellent skill, where as Paul is more like Tom Pyatt, or Dylan Gambrel; Jack of all trades, master of none.

And that's where the problem is. Tom Pyatt was a decent 4th liner, Gambrell is barely a NHL player. Nick Paul shouldn't be in the same sentence as these guys...

I don't think you realize this but Paul would be receiving more Selke votes with just a little bit more production, which happened once in 2020-21 despite 20 pts on the season. It's not about points and skill with Paul, it's the way he approaches the game.

 

[Rals]

Stud, Shoulda kept him