NHL Team Power Ratings 2016-17 (SRS Algorithm)

[morehockeystats]

Elo projections for playoffs:
Full stats - http://morehockeystats.com/teams/elo

MTL, TOR, LAK all out for now.

There might some serious manipulation between CBJ and NYR to choose whether they want to play PIT or ATL#1

 

[Doctor No]

SRS rankings, NHL games through February 26:

Team | 2016-17 Goal Diff | 2016-17 Schedule | 2016-17 Strength | Last Week
Washington|

1.148​

|

0.001​

|

1.149​

|

1​

|
Columbus|

0.900​

|

0.036​

|

0.936​

|

3​

|
Minnesota|

1.017​

|

-0.106​

|

0.911​

|

2​

|
Pittsburgh|

0.717​

|

0.043​

|

0.760​

|

5​

|
NY Rangers|

0.677​

|

0.000​

|

0.677​

|

4​

|
Chicago|

0.452​

|

-0.079​

|

0.373​

|

8​

|
San Jose|

0.410​

|

-0.053​

|

0.357​

|

6​

|
Edmonton|

0.238​

|

0.008​

|

0.246​

|

7​

|
Montreal|

0.194​

|

0.032​

|

0.225​

|

9​

|
Boston|

0.113​

|

0.043​

|

0.156​

|

12​

|
Toronto|

0.115​

|

-0.010​

|

0.105​

|

10​

|
Nashville|

0.161​

|

-0.065​

|

0.096​

|

15​

|
Ottawa|

0.050​

|

0.023​

|

0.073​

|

11​

|
NY Islanders|

-0.033​

|

0.084​

|

0.051​

|

13​

|
St. Louis|

-0.082​

|

0.089​

|

0.007​

|

14​

|
Anaheim|

0.016​

|

-0.038​

|

-0.023​

|

16​

|
Los Angeles|

-0.016​

|

-0.023​

|

-0.039​

|

17​

|
Tampa Bay|

-0.067​

|

0.003​

|

-0.063​

|

18​

|
Calgary|

-0.127​

|

-0.034​

|

-0.161​

|

22​

|
Winnipeg|

-0.238​

|

-0.021​

|

-0.259​

|

20​

|
Carolina|

-0.379​

|

0.116​

|

-0.263​

|

21​

|
Florida|

-0.279​

|

0.003​

|

-0.275​

|

19​

|
Buffalo|

-0.387​

|

0.016​

|

-0.371​

|

23​

|
Detroit|

-0.467​

|

0.094​

|

-0.372​

|

24​

|
Philadelphia|

-0.492​

|

0.040​

|

-0.451​

|

25​

|
Dallas|

-0.452​

|

-0.012​

|

-0.463​

|

27​

|
New Jersey|

-0.557​

|

0.086​

|

-0.472​

|

26​

|
Vancouver|

-0.541​

|

-0.038​

|

-0.579​

|

28​

|
Arizona|

-0.787​

|

0.029​

|

-0.758​

|

29​

|
Colorado|

-1.300​

|

0.050​

|

-1.250​

|

30​

|

Home-ice advantage is now estimated a nice round +0.300 goals/game.

On the bright side, the Avs finally won a game where I was in attendance!

 

[morehockeystats]

Teams Elo, by division:

http://morehockeystats.com/teams/elo

 

[MNNumbers]

Sun Mar 5 Bradley-Terry Full Season Power Rankings Update.
Again – these ranking take into consideration who has played who, and are a mathematical representation of how good a season each team is having so far. These rankings do NOT consider who played who WHEN. Only, who played who and how many times.
The odds of Team 1 beating Team 2 are: PWRRNK(1)/(PWRRNK(1) + PWRRNK(2))

Metro:
Wash 192.8
CBJ 158.4
Pitt 156.5
NYR 133.8
NYI 99.4
Phil 87.4
Car 81.0
NJD 75.9

Atl:
Mtl 121.2
Ott 113.4
Bos 99.5
TBL 91.2
Flo 87.3
Tor 86.7
Buf 77.2
Det 77.0

Cent:
Minn 159.6
Chi 143.2
Nash 92.8
StL 92.2
Wpg 73.5
Dal 68.9
Col 33.1

Pac:
SJS 127.8
Edm 109.6
Ana 99.9
Cgy 97.6
LAK 82.0
Van 70.2
Arz 55.0

 

[Doctor No]

NHL SRS power ratings, games through March 5, 2017:

Team | 2016-17 Goal Diff | 2016-17 Schedule | 2016-17 Strength | Last Week
Washington|

1.172​

|

-0.010​

|

1.162​

|

1​

|
Minnesota|

1.000​

|

-0.078​

|

0.922​

|

3​

|
Columbus|

0.875​

|

0.042​

|

0.917​

|

2​

|
Pittsburgh|

0.672​

|

0.028​

|

0.700​

|

4​

|
NY Rangers|

0.569​

|

0.020​

|

0.589​

|

5​

|
Chicago|

0.523​

|

-0.062​

|

0.461​

|

6​

|
San Jose|

0.422​

|

-0.045​

|

0.377​

|

7​

|
Montreal|

0.273​

|

0.038​

|

0.310​

|

9​

|
Edmonton|

0.262​

|

0.007​

|

0.269​

|

8​

|
Boston|

0.154​

|

0.020​

|

0.174​

|

10​

|
Nashville|

0.123​

|

-0.053​

|

0.070​

|

12​

|
Ottawa|

0.016​

|

0.009​

|

0.025​

|

13​

|
Toronto|

0.016​

|

0.004​

|

0.019​

|

11​

|
NY Islanders|

-0.078​

|

0.082​

|

0.004​

|

14​

|
Anaheim|

0.046​

|

-0.051​

|

-0.005​

|

16​

|
Tampa Bay|

-0.016​

|

0.002​

|

-0.014​

|

18​

|
St. Louis|

-0.094​

|

0.078​

|

-0.016​

|

15​

|
Los Angeles|

-0.046​

|

-0.015​

|

-0.061​

|

17​

|
Calgary|

-0.045​

|

-0.045​

|

-0.090​

|

19​

|
Winnipeg|

-0.121​

|

-0.033​

|

-0.155​

|

20​

|
Florida|

-0.281​

|

-0.018​

|

-0.299​

|

22​

|
Carolina|

-0.403​

|

0.086​

|

-0.318​

|

21​

|
Buffalo|

-0.364​

|

0.007​

|

-0.356​

|

23​

|
Detroit|

-0.460​

|

0.093​

|

-0.367​

|

24​

|
Philadelphia|

-0.406​

|

0.025​

|

-0.381​

|

25​

|
Dallas|

-0.415​

|

-0.006​

|

-0.421​

|

26​

|
New Jersey|

-0.615​

|

0.117​

|

-0.498​

|

27​

|
Vancouver|

-0.523​

|

-0.033​

|

-0.556​

|

28​

|
Arizona|

-0.815​

|

0.031​

|

-0.785​

|

29​

|
Colorado|

-1.422​

|

0.054​

|

-1.368​

|

30​

|

Home-ice advantage currently estimated at +0.316 goals/game.

Go Avs.

 

[morehockeystats]

Teams' Elo projections:
http://morehockeystats.com/teams/elo

 

[morehockeystats]

Teams' Elo projections:
http://morehockeystats.com/teams/elo

 

[morehockeystats]

Updated EoS projections:
http://morehockeystats.com/teams/elo

 

[morehockeystats]

Also, Buchholz and Sonneborn-Berger coefficient as well as Buchholz-based remaining strength description:
/More about these metrics in my blog posts:
Buchholz: http://morehockeystats.blogspot.com/2017/03/on-buchholz-and-sonneborn-berger.html
Sonneborn-Berger: http://morehockeystats.blogspot.com/2017/03/on-buchholz-and-sonneborn-berger_13.html


+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| TEM | Ptd/G | Buchz | So-Be | ReStr |
+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+
| ANA | 1.208 | 1.103 | 0.648 | 1.139 |
| ARI | 0.859 | 1.122 | 0.467 | 1.141 |
| BOS | 1.155 | 1.114 | 0.610 | 1.155 |
| BUF | 0.972 | 1.128 | 0.550 | 1.151 |
| CAR | 1.043 | 1.138 | 0.588 | 1.117 |
| CBJ | 1.408 | 1.116 | 0.778 | 1.175 |
| CGY | 1.194 | 1.100 | 0.640 | 1.139 |
| CHI | 1.375 | 1.087 | 0.730 | 1.079 |
| COL | 0.606 | 1.122 | 0.336 | 1.211 |
| DAL | 0.930 | 1.120 | 0.497 | 1.089 |
| DET | 0.957 | 1.133 | 0.536 | 1.123 |
| EDM | 1.197 | 1.118 | 0.643 | 1.017 |
| FLA | 1.028 | 1.125 | 0.555 | 1.141 |
| LAK | 1.056 | 1.112 | 0.582 | 1.147 |
| MIN | 1.296 | 1.103 | 0.711 | 1.006 |
| MTL | 1.250 | 1.127 | 0.679 | 1.030 |
| NJD | 0.901 | 1.154 | 0.494 | 1.092 |
| NSH | 1.141 | 1.104 | 0.617 | 1.106 |
| NYI | 1.099 | 1.140 | 0.613 | 1.109 |
| NYR | 1.292 | 1.121 | 0.706 | 1.200 |
| OTT | 1.211 | 1.114 | 0.663 | 1.144 |
| PHI | 1.042 | 1.126 | 0.568 | 1.176 |
| PIT | 1.394 | 1.112 | 0.758 | 1.160 |
| SJS | 1.282 | 1.106 | 0.689 | 1.109 |
| STL | 1.141 | 1.138 | 0.635 | 0.895 |
| TBL | 1.085 | 1.128 | 0.593 | 1.090 |
| TOR | 1.129 | 1.113 | 0.610 | 1.153 |
| VAN | 0.915 | 1.116 | 0.483 | 1.171 |
| WPG | 0.986 | 1.110 | 0.521 | 1.123 |
| WSH | 1.408 | 1.123 | 0.775 | 1.112 |
+-----+-------+-------+-------+-------+

 

[morehockeystats]

Updated EoS projections:
http://morehockeystats.com/teams/elo

 

[Doctor No]

Here's the final regular season numbers for 2016-17:

Team | 2016-17 Goal Diff | 2016-17 Schedule | 2016-17 Strength | Last Week
Washington|

0.988​

|

0.008​

|

0.996​

|

1​

|
Columbus|

0.659​

|

0.032​

|

0.691​

|

2​

|
Minnesota|

0.707​

|

-0.064​

|

0.643​

|

3​

|
Pittsburgh|

0.585​

|

0.017​

|

0.602​

|

4​

|
NY Rangers|

0.439​

|

0.040​

|

0.479​

|

5​

|
Edmonton|

0.427​

|

-0.046​

|

0.381​

|

7​

|
Chicago|

0.378​

|

-0.049​

|

0.329​

|

6​

|
Montreal|

0.317​

|

0.002​

|

0.319​

|

8​

|
Boston|

0.268​

|

0.007​

|

0.275​

|

9​

|
Anaheim|

0.280​

|

-0.029​

|

0.252​

|

12​

|
San Jose|

0.244​

|

-0.020​

|

0.224​

|

10​

|
St. Louis|

0.207​

|

-0.026​

|

0.181​

|

11​

|
Nashville|

0.195​

|

-0.030​

|

0.166​

|

13​

|
Toronto|

0.110​

|

0.009​

|

0.119​

|

14​

|
Tampa Bay|

0.085​

|

0.016​

|

0.102​

|

15​

|
NY Islanders|

-0.012​

|

0.056​

|

0.043​

|

18​

|
Calgary|

0.061​

|

-0.029​

|

0.032​

|

16​

|
Ottawa|

-0.024​

|

0.022​

|

-0.002​

|

17​

|
Los Angeles|

-0.049​

|

-0.010​

|

-0.059​

|

19​

|
Winnipeg|

-0.085​

|

-0.016​

|

-0.102​

|

22​

|
Philadelphia|

-0.207​

|

0.045​

|

-0.162​

|

21​

|
Carolina|

-0.256​

|

0.056​

|

-0.200​

|

20​

|
Florida|

-0.329​

|

0.042​

|

-0.288​

|

23​

|
Buffalo|

-0.439​

|

0.044​

|

-0.395​

|

24​

|
Detroit|

-0.451​

|

0.048​

|

-0.404​

|

25​

|
Dallas|

-0.476​

|

0.006​

|

-0.470​

|

26​

|
New Jersey|

-0.744​

|

0.086​

|

-0.658​

|

27​

|
Vancouver|

-0.744​

|

0.022​

|

-0.722​

|

28​

|
Arizona|

-0.768​

|

0.020​

|

-0.748​

|

29​

|
Colorado|

-1.366​

|

0.056​

|

-1.309​

|

30​

|

Home-ice advantage: +0.316 goals/game.

 

[morehockeystats]

After some RL interference, here's the EoS teams Elo graphs:

 

[morehockeystats]

And here are the final crosstables:

 

[Doctor No]

Here are the current SRS tables through two rounds:

Team | 2016-17 Goal Diff | 2016-17 Schedule | 2016-17 Strength | RS
Washington|

0.853​

|

0.071​

|

0.923​

|

1​

|
Pittsburgh|

0.617​

|

0.110​

|

0.727​

|

4​

|
Columbus|

0.529​

|

0.077​

|

0.606​

|

2​

|
Minnesota|

0.632​

|

-0.046​

|

0.586​

|

3​

|
NY Rangers|

0.426​

|

0.058​

|

0.483​

|

5​

|
Edmonton|

0.379​

|

-0.002​

|

0.377​

|

6​

|
Nashville|

0.326​

|

-0.012​

|

0.314​

|

13​

|
Montreal|

0.261​

|

0.037​

|

0.298​

|

8​

|
Anaheim|

0.269​

|

0.000​

|

0.269​

|

10​

|
San Jose|

0.250​

|

0.005​

|

0.255​

|

11​

|
Boston|

0.227​

|

0.012​

|

0.240​

|

9​

|
Chicago|

0.244​

|

-0.025​

|

0.220​

|

7​

|
St. Louis|

0.172​

|

0.029​

|

0.201​

|

12​

|
Toronto|

0.080​

|

0.070​

|

0.150​

|

14​

|
Tampa Bay|

0.085​

|

0.016​

|

0.102​

|

15​

|
Ottawa|

-0.011​

|

0.063​

|

0.053​

|

18​

|
NY Islanders|

-0.012​

|

0.054​

|

0.042​

|

16​

|
Calgary|

0.000​

|

-0.013​

|

-0.013​

|

17​

|
Los Angeles|

-0.049​

|

-0.010​

|

-0.059​

|

19​

|
Winnipeg|

-0.085​

|

-0.018​

|

-0.104​

|

20​

|
Philadelphia|

-0.207​

|

0.045​

|

-0.162​

|

21​

|
Carolina|

-0.256​

|

0.056​

|

-0.200​

|

22​

|
Florida|

-0.329​

|

0.042​

|

-0.287​

|

23​

|
Buffalo|

-0.439​

|

0.045​

|

-0.394​

|

24​

|
Detroit|

-0.451​

|

0.048​

|

-0.403​

|

25​

|
Dallas|

-0.476​

|

0.006​

|

-0.470​

|

26​

|
New Jersey|

-0.744​

|

0.087​

|

-0.657​

|

27​

|
Vancouver|

-0.744​

|

0.022​

|

-0.722​

|

28​

|
Arizona|

-0.768​

|

0.020​

|

-0.749​

|

29​

|
Colorado|

-1.366​

|

0.056​

|

-1.310​

|

30​

|

 

[Doctor No]

Here are the final (inclusive of Stanley Cup playoffs) NHL SRS power ratings for the 2016-2017 season:

Team | 2016-17 Goal Diff | 2016-17 Schedule | 2016-17 Strength | RS
Washington|

0.853​

|

0.073​

|

0.926​

|

1​

|
Pittsburgh|

0.636​

|

0.117​

|

0.752​

|

4​

|
Columbus|

0.529​

|

0.079​

|

0.608​

|

2​

|
Minnesota|

0.632​

|

-0.047​

|

0.585​

|

3​

|
NY Rangers|

0.426​

|

0.060​

|

0.485​

|

5​

|
Edmonton|

0.379​

|

-0.006​

|

0.373​

|

6​

|
Nashville|

0.269​

|

0.046​

|

0.315​

|

13​

|
Montreal|

0.261​

|

0.038​

|

0.299​

|

8​

|
San Jose|

0.250​

|

0.003​

|

0.253​

|

11​

|
Boston|

0.227​

|

0.014​

|

0.241​

|

9​

|
Anaheim|

0.212​

|

0.019​

|

0.231​

|

10​

|
Chicago|

0.244​

|

-0.025​

|

0.219​

|

7​

|
St. Louis|

0.172​

|

0.029​

|

0.201​

|

12​

|
Toronto|

0.080​

|

0.071​

|

0.151​

|

14​

|
Tampa Bay|

0.085​

|

0.017​

|

0.103​

|

15​

|
Ottawa|

-0.050​

|

0.113​

|

0.064​

|

18​

|
NY Islanders|

-0.012​

|

0.056​

|

0.043​

|

16​

|
Calgary|

0.000​

|

-0.016​

|

-0.016​

|

17​

|
Los Angeles|

-0.049​

|

-0.012​

|

-0.061​

|

19​

|
Winnipeg|

-0.085​

|

-0.019​

|

-0.104​

|

20​

|
Philadelphia|

-0.207​

|

0.046​

|

-0.161​

|

21​

|
Carolina|

-0.256​

|

0.057​

|

-0.199​

|

22​

|
Florida|

-0.329​

|

0.043​

|

-0.286​

|

23​

|
Buffalo|

-0.439​

|

0.046​

|

-0.393​

|

24​

|
Detroit|

-0.451​

|

0.049​

|

-0.403​

|

25​

|
Dallas|

-0.476​

|

0.005​

|

-0.471​

|

26​

|
New Jersey|

-0.744​

|

0.088​

|

-0.656​

|

27​

|
Vancouver|

-0.744​

|

0.020​

|

-0.724​

|

28​

|
Arizona|

-0.768​

|

0.018​

|

-0.750​

|

29​

|
Colorado|

-1.366​

|

0.055​

|

-1.310​

|

30​

|

Home-ice advantage ended up at +0.325 goals game.

Barring errors in the underlying data, these will be the values that feed into my goalie statistics (to be posted over the next few days).

 

[Doctor No]

While I'm here, these were the five most consistent teams over the 2016-2017 season (measured by how predictable the SRS algorithm was for each individual game):

Vancouver (1.72)
Colorado (1.80)
New Jersey (1.81)
Arizona (1.86)
Detroit (1.98)

Random observation - "consistent" and "good" are not necessarily the same (go Avs)

And the five least consistent teams:
Pittsburgh (2.63)
Tampa Bay (2.54)
Toronto (2.50)
Montreal (2.48)
NY Islanders (2.41)