Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - First Round Tuesday October 6th

[LeafChief]

Here are the players that I'm keeping my fingers crossed will slip to 15:

Lundell
Jarvis
Sanderson (very unlikely)
Askarov (wildcard)

 

[Green Snow Storm]

Here are the players that I'm keeping my fingers crossed will slip to 15:

Lundell
Jarvis
Sanderson (very unlikely)
Askarov (wildcard)

Sanderson or Askarov would have me over the moon, but I agree both are very unlikely. I don’t think Sanderson makes it far out of the top 5.

I would like Jarvis to fall a lot more if Winnipeg wasn’t picking 10th, hard for them to pass on a hometown kid with that potential, that team needs players that want to be there and stay there. That could be a deciding factor for a team like that.

 

[supermann_98]

I think Guhle is a better prospect than Schneider, so it's not about height at all.



You're a clown. If he was the next Weber he wouldn't be going 15. That makes no sense at all.

Weber was drafted 49th overall, lots of defenseman improve after their draft year just so ya know

 

[stickty111]

Here are the players that I'm keeping my fingers crossed will slip to 15:

Lundell
Jarvis
Sanderson (very unlikely)
Askarov (wildcard)

My players as well.

 

[Fogelhund]

Cherry picking players much?

Hughes
Dahlin
Heiskanen
Makar
Sergachev
McAvoy
Hanifin
Provorov
Werenski
Ekblad
Jones
Nurse
Morrissey
Pulock
Rielly
Lindholm
Dumba
Larsson
Hamilton
Brodin

These are some D-Men drafted in the top 15 since 2010. Anyone can make an argument when they only look at their side of it.

You've completely missed the point... but carry on. Plenty of bad misses, with plenty of solid D, in each of those years. In a couple of cases, the top D picks in those years were outside of round one.


Rielly's year in indicative of how the experts, and punters get it wrong... Top D pick... #2 Murray #86 Parayko, #78 Gostisbehere, Slavin #120, Miller #151

You mention McAvoy at #15... yet ignore Juolevi and Bean drafted ahead, and both were viewed much more favourably... and in the end, the best D of the draft, could end up being Fox at #66.

The Top D in the league... those nominated top three for the Norris, are often not the top drafted guys... that is a fact. We can go back for decades on this one. How D develop, is often unpredictable, and certainly less predictable than people, pretending to be experts think. Guys who people think won't be great in this draft, could easily end up being the best D... who knows...

 

[67Cup]

The Leafs may need a RHD right now but as we all know whoever is drafted this year cannot reasonably be expected to contribute for two or three years at best. If need is taken into consideration, it is not immediate need but weakness in the prospect pool that matters, IMO. That weakness, medium term, is not on the blueline (Sandin, Lily) but centre. Round about slot 15 and still more if the Leafs trade down, as Dubas seems very willing to do, there are a number of promising centres. When BPA and need converge, you don’t need to ask which strategy is more important. If the Leafs keep the pick, or trade down with it, I would not be surprised to see a centre picked. My familiarity with the potential picks is limited this year so I will neither guess nor advocate a certain choice. But a centre seems a real possibility.

 

[Kangal]

Here are the players that I'm keeping my fingers crossed will slip to 15:

Lundell
Jarvis
Sanderson (very unlikely)
Askarov (wildcard)

Very unlikely one of these players drops to us. I think that Lundell is the most likely guy to drop.

 

[Judas Tavares]

I think by 15, you have good options but each player has a fault. So it depends which fault management can overlook or feel they can help them improve upon. Whether its skating, shot, IQ, defensive awareness, etc...

It seems to me a lot of guys at our range have meh skating ability, or at least that is the fault I am reading about the most.

 

[Cor]

Here are the players that I'm keeping my fingers crossed will slip to 15:

Lundell
Jarvis
Sanderson (very unlikely)
Askarov (wildcard)

Ive heard that Minnesota is taking Lundell if he’s there for them at 9. However if he made it to 15, we are leaving the draft with a player, who IMO, should be top 5.

Askarov would be wild.

 

[HC7]

You've completely missed the point... but carry on. Plenty of bad misses, with plenty of solid D, in each of those years. In a couple of cases, the top D picks in those years were outside of round one.


Rielly's year in indicative of how the experts, and punters get it wrong... Top D pick... #2 Murray #86 Parayko, #78 Gostisbehere, Slavin #120, Miller #151

You mention McAvoy at #15... yet ignore Juolevi and Bean drafted ahead, and both were viewed much more favourably... and in the end, the best D of the draft, could end up being Fox at #66.

The Top D in the league... those nominated top three for the Norris, are often not the top drafted guys... that is a fact. We can go back for decades on this one. How D develop, is often unpredictable, and certainly less predictable than people, pretending to be experts think. Guys who people think won't be great in this draft, could easily end up being the best D... who knows...

I can make the exact same counter-point.

Hedman who plays D, and was drafted 2nd overall won the Conn Smythe.

The 2 forwards who came in 2nd and 3rd in voting for Tampa?

Point 79th overall.

Kucherov 58th overall.

At the end of the day mistakes are made on forward and D. You have to trust your instincts and draft the players you think are the best.

 

[pylon17]

Here are the players that I'm keeping my fingers crossed will slip to 15:

Lundell
Jarvis
Sanderson (very unlikely)
Askarov (wildcard)

Ya don't say?!

 

[Kangal]

I'm trying to figure out who might drop.

My thoughts are with Centres and D in demand, Byfield, Rossi, Perfetti, Lundell, Jarvis, Drysdale and Sanderson will not get to 15.

I think Askarov will be viewed as a grand slam.

For wingers, Laf, Stutzle and Raymond will not get to 15.

So to me that leaves Holtz and Quinn. But really, can't see Holtz making it either.

Lindell and Quinn arethe players I see dropping

 

[Drew311]

Here are the players that I'm keeping my fingers crossed will slip to 15:

Lundell
Jarvis
Sanderson (very unlikely)
Askarov (wildcard)

I’m predicting Askarov goes earlier than projected, between 6 - 8. He’s already proving he can play in a top pro league at such a young age, he’s got franchise goalie written all over him.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

This guy was pretty much bang on with most of his draft projections last year.

If this is how it plays out, I'm gonna be bit disappointed TBH.
Not the biggest Mercer fan.

 

[613Leafer]

I’m predicting Askarov goes earlier than projected, between 6 - 8. He’s already proving he can play in a top pro league at such a young age, he’s got franchise goalie written all over him.

Yea, at this point, I'd be shocked if he was there at 15. I don't think there's a chance we get him.

 

[daethfromabove1979]

Think Helge Grans could be on our radar? Looks like a decent RHD but watching some highlights and his shot looks very weak.

 

[Brobust]

This guy was pretty much bang on with most of his draft projections last year.

If this is how it plays out, I'm gonna be bit disappointed TBH.
Not the biggest Mercer fan.

Trade down. Or trade the pick entirely. Or trade up since Drysdale is dropping.

 

[mydnyte]

I'm not picking on you Morgs, or anyone else in particular, it's just a good place to start.

Look, the Pro scouts, on NHL teams can't evaluate D men all that great, and most certainly us amateurs can't either. Anyone who is suggesting that they can project what a prospect D man is going to be, is blowing smoke.

Here is how Norris top three voting D men were drafted from the last five years.

Josi #38OA
Carlson #27OA
Hedman #2OA
Giordano Undrafted
Burns 20th OA
Doughty 2nd OA
Subban 43rd OA
Karlsson 15th OA


Other notable D men, including defensively specialists

Keith 54th OA
Weber 49th OA
Pesce 66th OA
Slavin 120th OA
Manson 160th OA
Klingberg 131st OA
Chara 56th OA

So, out of 15 mentioned D men.... a grand total of TWO, were drafted earlier than where our draft pick is....

All of these players, apparently had weaknesses, or issues, that resulted in them being drafted much later... because D men develop at different rates, and are unpredictable lottery tickets... really a bit like goalies. Forwards are much more predictable, D-men... not so much. So draft a bunch of them, develop them, and hope for the best. Sometimes early round guys are higher probabilities, but then... as we see, a bunch of very good D men, were selected later, and became far better, than anyone could have predicted pre-draft.

You can go through each draft year in the past, and see all kinds of D men, from later picks, that ended up being very solid... so this theory, that a bunch of people on a web forum, can tell you how these guys are going to develop, what their potential is... when the pros can't... it's just junk.

for a defenseman the only 2 intangibles you must always have are Natural Skating ability and Hockey Sense, and an equal amount of both, and both need to be well above average to become something special.

 

[nuck]

This guy was pretty much bang on with most of his draft projections last year.

If this is how it plays out, I'm gonna be bit disappointed TBH.
Not the biggest Mercer fan.

15 looks like about where Mercer belongs. Another RW who looks a lot like the guys they already have. 45g 102pt pace before his trade and 24g 72 pace after but he went to a much deeper club.

Ranked #15 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #13 by FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS
Ranked #12 by ISS HOCKEY
Ranked #17 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #13 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #10 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #12 by CONSOLIDATED RANKING
Ranked #13 by TSN/McKenzie

 

[Dion TheFluff]

Trade down. Or trade the pick entirely. Or trade up since Drysdale is dropping.

agreed. Hoping this isn't how it plays out but he was pretty much spot on with most of his predictions last year.

 

[Judas Tavares]

This guy was pretty much bang on with most of his draft projections last year.

If this is how it plays out, I'm gonna be bit disappointed TBH.
Not the biggest Mercer fan.

The only thing that looks out of place is how far Drsydale drops. I could see Carolina as the team that rolls the dice on Lapierre.

 

[Morgs]

Think Helge Grans could be on our radar? Looks like a decent RHD but watching some highlights and his shot looks very weak.

Sure. I like Grans, but I think he's more of a trade down or 2nd round dropper than at 15.

I think the only defenseman I'd take at 15 other than Drysdale or Sanderson is Wallinder but even that is stretching it.

 

[pspot]

Sounds a bit different IMO, 6' probably ends up around 190 lbs, finishes checks

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

If Jarvis, Askarov, Lundell, and Sanderson are all gone, there really isn’t anyone there that is worth spending 15 on. Trade down.

 

[kb]

If Jarvis, Askarov, Lundell, and Sanderson are all gone, there really isn’t anyone there that is worth spending 15 on. Trade down.

Most teams the Leafs would want to trade with will probably feel the same way.