Speculation: NHL Entry Draft 2016 Pt 1: Exceptional Musical Chairs

[ck26]

Lots of random thoughts in this OP, and enough of them involve junior hockey / next year's draft that I figure I'd throw down with Part 1.

Relocation Musical Chairs: OHL's Plymouth Whalers have moved to Flint and become the Firebirds. Belleville Bulls have moved to Hamilton and become the Bulldogs. The Hamilton Bulldogs name was previously used by the Canadiens' AHL team, but that franchise has been moved to St John's, Newfoundland, where they have become the IceCaps. This is double-confusing, because there was another St John's IceCaps last season (Winnipeg's AHL team), but THAT version of the IceCaps has been moved to Winnipeg, where they are being re-branded as the Manitoba Moose. You may have heard of them before, because the Manitoba Moose played in the International Hockey League from 1994 to 2001 and in the AHL until 2011 ... when they moved to St John's and became the IceCaps to begin with.

The "most accomplished Belleville Bull" is probably PK Subban. Tyler Seguin for Plymouth. But Plymouth, Michigan won't be without high-level hockey, because USA Hockey bought their building and is moving the National Team Development Program team from Ann Arbor.

The USA NTDP plays in the United States Hockey League, the Tier 1 junior hockey league in the States. USHL is a step below the CHL but it's still a great league ... Martin Hanzal (Omaha), Rusty Klesla (Sioux City), Connor Murphy (NTDP), Hank Samuelsson (NTDP), Tim Kennedy (Sioux City), Connor Clifton (NTDP), Maxim Letunov (Youngstown) Christian Dvorak (Chicago), Christian Fischer (NTDP), Brendan Warren (NTDP) and Ryan MacInnis (NTDP) all played there. Check it out.

Joseph Veleno (from Quebec) has been granted "exceptional status" to play in the CHL at 15, instead of the normal entry age of 16. John Tavares, Aaron Ekblad and Connor McDavid were all granted this status to play for the Oshawa Generals, Barrie Colts and Erie Otters, respectively, and all were later drafted 1OA in the NHL draft. A fourth kid, defenseman Sean Day (Mississauga Steelheads), was granted the status 2 years ago and will be a high pick in the 2016 draft, but probably won't go 1OA. Veleno is the first "exceptional" kid to play in the QMJHL, where he will play for St John, which is triple-insane because this St John is in New Brunswick, and is different than St John's, Newfoundland, the town where all the IceCaps nonsense is happening.

A Steelhead is a type of fish. A trout, to be precise.

Still no news on where Auston Matthews is playing next year. If he chooses major junior, he will play in the Western Hockey League, because Arizona is in their catchment area.

QMJHL: Connecticut, Massachussets, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont
OHL: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin
WHL: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming

No relocation nonsense in the WHL this year, just lots of wheat fields and 20 hour bus rides to dumps like Brandon, Manitoba and Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan. Auston Matthews' WHL rights are owned by the Everett Silvertips.

Everett, Washington is just north of Seattle, in the middle of the Seattle-Vancouver corridor. Everett hosts a pre-season tournament in early September and I'm currently brainstorming a trip up there for a 4-day weekend on the off-chance that Matthews will be there. And even if he's not, it's WHL hockey and Seattle and the place is essentially the craft brewing capital of the universe. What's not to love?

Anyway ... discuss.

Click to read more...

 

[ck26]

Auston Matthews work permit problems

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/...auston-matthews-in-north-america-next-season/

According to Pete Judge of ISS, Matthews likely won’t be able to play in Switzerland due to work permit issues. Judge reported on Twitter Sunday that the 17-year-old is having troubles getting a visa because he’s never played professionally before.

Matthews was looking to sign in Europe with ZSC in Switzerland. ZSC is currently coached my former NHLer Marc Crawford.

The Everett Silvertips of the Western Hockey League own Matthews’ CHL rights. His agent Pat Brisson has hinted in the past that if Europe doesn’t work, his client would likely head to the WHL.

 

[XX]

I'll wait until hopes are crushed this season before looking to the draft. I give it a dozen games.

 

[Matias Maccete]

There's a team in Flint! Flint Michigan mega bowl! Can't wait for Matthews to go to Edmonton.

 

[rt]

I'm going to call it. Right now. Olli Juolevi.

 

[rt]

I'll wait until hopes are crushed this season before looking to the draft. I give it a dozen games.

You don't need that many. It's all over man.

 

[ck26]

I'm going to call it. Right now. Olli Juolevi.

Another left defenseman? Ugh. At least this means we made the playoffs ... right?

Keith Tkachuk's kid Matthew is the worst player we end up with the team sucks as much as we think it will. Michael Nylander's other son Alex should be kicking around the end of the first round when we shock the world and win the Cup.

 

[rt]

Another left defenseman? Ugh. At least this means we made the playoffs ... right?

Keith Tkachuk's kid Matthew is the worst player we end up with the team sucks as much as we think it will. Michael Nylander's other son Alex should be kicking around the end of the first round when we shock the world and win the Cup.

Nope. We're taking him sixth overall. Just missing out on the elite three in Matthews, Chychrun, and Puljujarvi because we lost the lottery three times in a row. Then 2nd generation star NHL kids Tkachuck and Logan Brown go 4th and 5th. We take Olli Juolevi 6th. He has his star rise when he exceeds expectations in the OHL this season for London and he pulls a Provorov. He's barely considered a reach by the time we grab him.

EDIT: Oh and you're right, we will take a Swede with that 2nd 1st and it can be considered a bloodlines pick, but it won't be Nylander. It'll be "Flying" Jacob Cederholm, brother of Anton.

 

[ck26]

Nope. We're taking him sixth overall. Just missing out on the elite three in Matthews, Chychrun, and Puljujarvi because we lost the lottery three times in a row. Then 2nd generation star NHL kids Tkachuck and Logan Brown go 4th and 5th. We take Olli Juolevi 6th. He has his star rise when he exceeds expectations in the OHL this season for London and he pulls a Provorov. He's barely considered a reach by the time we grab him.

Oh S ... you're serious?

At least we've had some success drafting Scandinavian defensemen at 6OA.

 

[rt]

Oh S ... you're serious?

At least we've had some success drafting Scandinavian defensemen at 6OA.

Of course I'm serious. Matthews is the franchise savior. So he's out. That's been established. Puljujarvi is the super elite level RW to go with Strome and Perlini. So that's a negative. Chychrun is probably the perfect pick. I like him better than Hanifin or Ekblad. He's NHL ready right now. And he can play either LD or RD, plus he's a bloodlines pick. He's the ideal pick for us. So that's a hell no. Not coming here. Then Brown and Tkachuk are elite talents and NHL sons. We will think we're in range, here, and as a fan base we will spend all year following both and arguing over them. Then both are off the board by our pick. It's just the way it's going to happen. We know this.

 

[Jakey53]

I'll wait until hopes are crushed this season before looking to the draft. I give it a dozen games.

You don't need that many. It's all over man.

Did you expect anything different this year?

 

[rt]

From another thread, but I wanted to post it here, too.

Don't pick goalies in the first round...

You're absolutely right. Surely we should all take your evaluation of late first round talent over the Caps scouting dept, what with all the success they haven't had of late...

How many goaltenders drafted in the 1st round made an impact for the team that drafted them?

Let's not look at the last five drafts, as it's too soon to tell. Let's look at:

1. 2001 - Leclaire, Blackburn, Bacashihua, Munro
2. 2002 - Lehtonen, Toivonen
3. 2003 - Fleury
4. 2004 - Montoya, Dubnyk, Schwarz, Schneider
5. 2005 - Price, Rask
6. 2006 - Bernier, Helenius, Varlamov, Irving
7. 2007 - None
8. 2008 - Pickard, McCollum
9. 2009 - None
10. 2010 - Campbell, Visentin

That's 10 years, and 21 goalies. Of those 21 goalies how many were impact players for the team that drafted them?

Columbus got one good season out of Leclaire. Lehtonen was an adequate starter for the Thrashers for a while. MAF obviously counts. Dubnyk was pretty good in Edmonton for a year or two. Schneider did well for Vancouver and was a good trade chip. Price is a no brainer. Toronto got nothing out of the Rask pick. LA got pretty much nothing out of drafting Bernier. Varlamov worked for the Caps for a while.

So, making the list of goalies that made an impact for the team that drafted them in the first round is...

1. Leclaire
2. Lehtonen
3. MAF
4. Dubnyk
5. Schneider
6. Price
7. Varlamov

Would you be happy to get out of Samsonov what Columbus got out of Leclaire? Probably not. Would you be happy to get out of Samsonov what Atlanta got out of Lehtonen? Maybe. MAF? Sure. Dubnyk's Oilers days? Meh... Schneider? No doubt. Price? Obviously. Varlamov? Sure. The return was good.

So in a ten year period Lehtonen, MAF, Schneider, Price, and Varlamov were actually worth the investment of a 1st round pick. That's five guys in ten years. And keep in mind that MAF was 1OV, Lehtonen was 2OV, and Price was 5OV.

In those ten years, excluding top five picks, you've got Schneider and Varlamov who were good value picks at their late 1st round spots. Two guys in ten years.

Will you get a Schneider or Varlamov? Maybe.

Will you instead get a Blackburn, Bacashihua, Munro, Toivonen, Dubnyk, Schwarz, Helenius, Irving, Pickard, McCollum, Campbell, or Visentin? More likely.

That's one out of seven goalies taken between pick ten and pick thirty that make a significant positive impact on the team that selected them. Will Samsonov be that one? Maybe, but the odds aren't great.

...but you're absolutely right. Surely we should all take the Caps evaluation of late first round talent over the a decade of actual concrete results from the NHL draft, what with all the success the Caps have had of late...

See how that works?

TLDR in bold.

 

[XX]

Also of note is that only three of those goalies have a career SV% higher than .915. So even if you do get a goalie, there's an even smaller chance that they're above average and thus worth a first round pick.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

We would be better off identifying a European goalie to choose in a later round, now that we have actual scouting in Europe.

And we did. I just noticed the thread on Treutle.

 

[cobra427]

From another thread, but I wanted to post it here, too.

Don't pick goalies in the first round...

Not disagreeing with you, but have you done this analysis with centers as a comparison. It seems like 1/3 of the goalies are difference makers, and I wonder what the ratio is for centers over the same period?

 

[ck26]

Re: rt's long rant. At least add Rask to your list of success stories. Whether you're stupid enough to trade Rask for Andrew Raycroft doesn't affect whether or not drafting Rask there was a correct decision. Perhaps refine your criteria to "did the player make an impact within X years" because Rask isn't Tim Thomas ... it's not like he took 10 years to break into the league. Not his fault that John Ferguson Jr is a ****ing idiot.

Not disagreeing with you, but have you done this analysis with centers as a comparison. It seems like 1/3 of the goalies are difference makers, and I wonder what the ratio is for centers over the same period?

The problem with quantifying centers is the reason why they're so much smarter to draft.

What stat do we use to objectively judge a "difference maker" at center? See any Martin Hanzal trade thread, and you'll see people scoffing out demands by saying "he scores 30 points!" and then we roll our eyes.

2008:
Hit: Steven Stamkos, Tyler Ennis
???: Colin Wilson, Cody Hodgson, Joe Colborne
Miss: Zach Boychuk, Anton Gustafsson, Greg Nemisz, Daultan Leveille

2007:
Hit: Kyle Turris, Sam Gagner, Logan Couture, Brandon Sutter, Lars Eller
???: Mikael Backlund
Miss: Zach Hamill, Angelo Esposito, Riley Nash, Patrick White, Jim O'Brien

2006:
Hit: Jordan Staal, Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom, Derick Brassard, Claude Giroux
???: Peter Mueller, James Sheppard, Trevor Lewis
Miss: None really

"Is he a starter" is a pretty good litmus test for a goalie, but for a center? At what point in the first round is drafting a stud bottom 6 forward like Boyd Gordon acceptable? 15OA? 22OA? Even a "bust" first rounder like Kyle Chipchura (18OA in 2004) is still a solid bottom 6 guy.

Coyotes best goalie is our NHL starter: Smith. The second-best goalie in the organization should be ... where? Glendale as the backup? Springfield as the starter? Maybe Springfield if he's under 25 and Glendale if he's older? Hard to say. And unless he's good enough to displace Smith, any 1st round goalie will be a waste. A 1st round defenseman like Murphy or Gormely doesn't have to displace OEL ... he just has to be good and fill a role. Much easier to slowly grow a guy from 17 min/game to 19 to add some PP time to 22 to add some PK time to 25. Managing that slow growth is trickier for goalies, especially given that growing a 2nd "great" goalie can be kinda a problem, both in terms of personalities and salary cap (DAL has like $11m worth of goalies on the roster right now). Having multiple stud centers or defensemen is never a man management / resource allocation problem.

 

[rt]

Re: rt's long rant. At least add Rask to your list of success stories. Whether you're stupid enough to trade Rask for Andrew Raycroft doesn't affect whether or not drafting Rask there was a correct decision.

No. It does matter. They take so ****ing long to develop that usually someone else enjoys the rewards. That **** ain't free either. Rask is a great example of not wasting your time on goalies in the first. Some idiot will probably give you theirs for nothing. They're such a crapshoot.

 

[rt]

Not disagreeing with you, but have you done this analysis with centers as a comparison. It seems like 1/3 of the goalies are difference makers, and I wonder what the ratio is for centers over the same period?

It may be 1/3 of goalies in the 1st. It's 1/7 from picks 10-30 in years 2001 to 2010, though. You want to talk non-goalies from picks 10-30 in years 2001 to 2010? I'm not sure. I haven't looked. I'd guess that's about 1/3 though. Or twice as likely to be an impact player.

 

[ck26]

It does matter. They take so ****ing long to develop that usually someone else enjoys the rewards. That **** ain't free either. Rask is a great example of not wasting your time on goalies in the first. Some idiot will probably give you theirs for nothing. They're such a crapshoot.

I agree with your basic point, but Rask WAS highly regarded. Leafs management was so in love with Justin Pogge that they thought the future was all taken care of, and wanted Raycroft who was better now in theory. The scouts were right about him, the GM was wrong. Rask tore up the AHL for 2 seasons and then put up a 1.97 GAA in 45 games as a 22/23 year old rookie. He's absolutely a strong case for drafting goalies high. The Canucks gave up on Cam Neely and Michael Grabner too soon. It means they mis-judged their development, not that they were bad picks.

 

[rt]

Blake Wheeler was a great draft pick and utter golden scouting.

I'm talking about odds. The odds of picking a goalie 10-30 and having that goalie eventually equal that value either by play or by trade is about 1/7. You've got much better odds picking a skater of any position in that range.

 

[XX]

I'm talking about odds. The odds of picking a goalie 10-30 and having that goalie eventually equal that value either by play or by trade is about 1/7. You've got much better odds picking a skater of any position in that range.

And, even if we pretend for a moment that the odds are the same, you have to consider your needs and opportunity costs. There's only one starter on a team. There are twelve forwards. This is especially important for poor franchises that cannot sign forwards, or allow first round picks to be wasted.

It is much, much easier to sign one or two goalies from the free agent market, or trade a pick for an already developed one. They take, on average, about seven years of development anyways. It's just not worth it.

Carey price is an outlier. He doesn't count. MAF was taken FIRST in the 2003 draft, for ****s sake. The Pens got a career .911 goalie (.906 in the playoffs) out of that. There were 15 all-star forwards taken after him in the first alone, with 7 of those players being all-pro. Value pick!

 

[hbk]

Yep. Drafting goalies in first is a bad idea. I agree with that; however, we need to include in the analysis the cost of acquiring a starting goalie. Schneider cost a early first, the Sabres paid a first and ate a contract for Lehner. Oilers sent 3 picks for Talbot.

Is the cost going up? I know we've been successful to a degree dumpster diving. It's a trend worth watching.

 

[Heldig]

Nope. We're taking him sixth overall. Just missing out on the elite three in Matthews, Chychrun, and Puljujarvi because we lost the lottery three times in a row. Then 2nd generation star NHL kids Tkachuck and Logan Brown go 4th and 5th. We take Olli Juolevi 6th. He has his star rise when he exceeds expectations in the OHL this season for London and he pulls a Provorov. He's barely considered a reach by the time we grab him.

EDIT: Oh and you're right, we will take a Swede with that 2nd 1st and it can be considered a bloodlines pick, but it won't be Nylander. It'll be "Flying" Jacob Cederholm, brother of Anton.

This cracked me up. Such is the life of a fan of this franchise. Luck/decisions weren't any better when they were the Jets.

My family constantly ask why I still cheer for them and why don't I cheer for a good team.

 

[rt]

Auston Matthews to Zurich is now confirmed and announced by the Lions. Kid will make 400kay in the NLA next season. His head coach is Marc Crawford, who once coached the Colorado Avalanche to a Stanley Cup championship.

I think this is totally awesome, and I applaud the Matthews family for making a bold choice. This is going to be such an amazing life experience for him, and that 400kay is such an important insurance policy.

As a fan, it sucks that I won't be able to see him play as often as I would have if he chose the WHL or the NCAA but I really think that this was the perfect choice for Matthews as a player. This is so unique and so cool.

 

[ClassLessCoyote]

I hope Matthews can find a loophole in the NHL Draft rules and we can win the bid war for him. I know that's too much to ask, but we really do need a break.