BuzzKillington90
Registered User
Last season, the league opened up winning the No. 1 pick to all 14 non-playoff teams. Previously, only the five-worst teams had a shot. But no one feared moving down more than one position, meaning the 30th-place club could select no lower than second. That protection is in peril.
As we head towards a 2015 draft with two talents that have scouts drooling -- Jack Eichel and Connor McDavid -- the NHL is considering a system that could see the lottery going beyond just the No. 1 overall choice.
There are discussions about having the top three picks, or even the top five, selected this way. Although odds would continue to favour those teams with the fewest points, a decision to go in this direction would mean the worst team could potentially pick fourth -- or sixth.
Currently, the last-place squad gets a 25 per cent chance of snaring the top choice, with the best non-playoff finisher at 0.5 per cent. That may be different, too.
What we're looking at here is a system where the odds would be weighted by how positions 17 through 30 in the NHL standings finish over a five-year period relative to the final playoff qualifier. The exact formula is not yet determined. But one of the potential scenarios is something like this:
If you go back over the last five seasons (2008-09 to 2012-13), you can easily check how close those teams ranked 17-30 came to making the playoffs. The 30th-place finishers (Edmonton Oilers twice, Columbus Blue Jackets, Florida Panthers, New York Islanders) were a combined 131 points out. Overall, the 70 non-playoff teams totalled 693 points behind during that span.
I assume the NHL would want to use the current season to make each year's lottery as relevant as possible. So if this were the league's method of choice, it can only be used as a comparison to the 2013 odds. Anyway, 131 is 18.9 per cent of 693. That would give the 30th-place team an 18.9 per cent shot at the top selection, down from the current 25 per cent.
It would be a "rolling" five-year period. As you moved into the next season, the oldest would be dropped. However, there is one pothole.
In 2011, the Dallas Stars and Calgary Flames, who missed the playoffs, finished ahead of the New York Rangers, who made it. In 2010, the St. Louis Blues, Flames and Anaheim Ducks were above the Philadelphia Flyers and Montreal Canadiens. And in 2009, the Florida Panthers beat out St. Louis, Columbus and Anaheim. Therefore, the teams who finished 17th overall were actually four points better than the last playoff team. That would have to be addressed.
It's interesting stuff. No one wanted to use the word "tanking." But there is concern about how competitive things will be with McDavid and Eichel available next summer. If you're an owner or a general manager, would the adoption of this policy change the way you approach the 2014-15 season?
http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/ho...ughts-changing-odds-in-nhl-draft-lottery.html
As we head towards a 2015 draft with two talents that have scouts drooling -- Jack Eichel and Connor McDavid -- the NHL is considering a system that could see the lottery going beyond just the No. 1 overall choice.
There are discussions about having the top three picks, or even the top five, selected this way. Although odds would continue to favour those teams with the fewest points, a decision to go in this direction would mean the worst team could potentially pick fourth -- or sixth.
Currently, the last-place squad gets a 25 per cent chance of snaring the top choice, with the best non-playoff finisher at 0.5 per cent. That may be different, too.
What we're looking at here is a system where the odds would be weighted by how positions 17 through 30 in the NHL standings finish over a five-year period relative to the final playoff qualifier. The exact formula is not yet determined. But one of the potential scenarios is something like this:
If you go back over the last five seasons (2008-09 to 2012-13), you can easily check how close those teams ranked 17-30 came to making the playoffs. The 30th-place finishers (Edmonton Oilers twice, Columbus Blue Jackets, Florida Panthers, New York Islanders) were a combined 131 points out. Overall, the 70 non-playoff teams totalled 693 points behind during that span.
I assume the NHL would want to use the current season to make each year's lottery as relevant as possible. So if this were the league's method of choice, it can only be used as a comparison to the 2013 odds. Anyway, 131 is 18.9 per cent of 693. That would give the 30th-place team an 18.9 per cent shot at the top selection, down from the current 25 per cent.
It would be a "rolling" five-year period. As you moved into the next season, the oldest would be dropped. However, there is one pothole.
In 2011, the Dallas Stars and Calgary Flames, who missed the playoffs, finished ahead of the New York Rangers, who made it. In 2010, the St. Louis Blues, Flames and Anaheim Ducks were above the Philadelphia Flyers and Montreal Canadiens. And in 2009, the Florida Panthers beat out St. Louis, Columbus and Anaheim. Therefore, the teams who finished 17th overall were actually four points better than the last playoff team. That would have to be addressed.
It's interesting stuff. No one wanted to use the word "tanking." But there is concern about how competitive things will be with McDavid and Eichel available next summer. If you're an owner or a general manager, would the adoption of this policy change the way you approach the 2014-15 season?
http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/ho...ughts-changing-odds-in-nhl-draft-lottery.html
