The Iconoclast said:
The majority of the fans won't follow the players. The fans were brought up being fans of "team X" or "team Y". Even when the fan favorite is traded away the fans stick with the team, not the player. Bain may be able to sign the top 200 players in the world (for the time being), but that does not mean they will have the best product. The NHL will still have all the trappings that people associate with the best league in the world. The teams in the NHL will still battle it out for the Stanley Cup and not some meaningless trophy that Bain puts together. The NHL has history and fan loyalty on its side. Bain will have the top 200 players (I don't think Bain will get more than half of that number as many will opt to stay with the NHL and some form of stability as well as history) but will have to battle through the animosity the fans hold against those players and the lack or proven commodity Bain's league will have to offer.
So if I understand you correctly, fans in cities that currently don't have NHL teams would ignore the local team, to follow a league that has no connection to their city? If Quebec got a team, and signed Lecavalier, Theodore and St. Louis, fans in that city would ignore them, to continue following Nashville, Columbus, and Anaheim?
The NHL has always been a regional sport. There is no loyalty to the NHL in cities that don't have teams, and not much loyalty to NHL teams in many cities that do have teams. See the currently declining attendance records.
The Iconoclast said:
If Bain comes on the scene and forces the issue they act as a divisive element, one that will once and for all break the ranks of the NHLPA. The NHL will no longer have a body to negotiate with and will be able to put in place what ever system they want, just like Bain's league. The players get screwed because they won't get the opportunity to bargain for any deal. They will have one rammed down their throats in both leagues.
As I said above, I don't think Bain could care less about the NHLPA. As for the players, they'll go to the highest bidder. Whenever there has been a start-up league, be it the WHA, the USFL, or IRL, they have always tried to lure away top players. While this has ultimately led to their own demise (except IRL), it only came about because ultimately the startup leagues couldn't afford the salary explosion and bidding wars that resulted in open competition for star players. Either way, the players benefit.
The Iconoclast said:
Frankly I hope Bain does push to start a 10 team league featuring the best players they can attract. I say it will last two, maybe three seasons before biting the dust for good. The players who end up in that league will likely not be the "best" but the ones that proved to be the true "PA members" who followed through on their word of never playing another game in the NHL. The young players coming up will still aspire to be in the NHL and playing for immortality by having their name engraved on the Stanley Cup.
That's the kind of arrogance that led the NHL to disregard the first incarnation of the WHA, to their own chagrin in the end.
Players, like people everywhere, will go where the money is. If you are Sydney Crosby, do you settle for a 4 year, $875,000 offer from Pittsburgh, who will need a good 5-10 years before they compete for a Cup, or do you take a 3 year, $5 million offer from a start-up league? NHL offer - 22 years old, $3.5 million. Counter offer, 21 years old, $15 million. And still lots of time to win that Stanley Cup.
Plus you are over-estimating the lure of the Cup to European players. They'll go where the money is.
The Iconoclast said:
Money will be available in both leagues, but only one has the Stanley Cup and only one will give you a shot at having your name etched on the most important trophy in all of sport. Bain will have its 10 team league in second class facilities for a third rate prize. I know who I would guess will be viable in three years and where all the new talent will be heading. BHL lasts only as long as the players they manage to sign out of the gate feel there is a reason to be there. IMO that won't take more than a couple of years.
As long as the money is more, then that's where they will go. If a die-hard hockey fanatic like Bobby Hull would jump leagues, why wouldn't some Russian kid with only a vague understanding of the NHL, its history and traditions?