NHL 2018/19 Team Rankings

I would like to share with you team rankings based on the ELO rating system. This is purely mathematical based on wins and losses. Each team has...
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  1. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    HERE WE GO AGAIN FOR 2018/19

    I would like to share with you team rankings based on the ELO rating system.

    This is purely mathematical based on wins and losses. Each team has a score. That score increases or decreases based on wins and losses. The amount of change is based on the score of the opponent. Eg. If a strong team beats a weak team then they don't gain a lot of points because it is expected. If a weak team beats a strong team then they gain a lot of points and the strong team loses a bunch. It balances out. Streaks can swing a team's rankings by a lot.

    For the purposes of my calculations, each team started with 2500 points. K is 100 and doesn't change.

    NOTE: I changed the scoring system so that OT/SO wins are lesser than regular wins (half a win). And a OT/SO loss is half a loss.


    After 764 games played this season the rankings for Jan 23 2019 are:


    #TeamLowest ScoreAverage ScoreHighest ScoreElo Score
    1Tampa Bay Lightning2464266427882696
    2Calgary Flames2447257626742673
    3New York Islanders2400256027222663
    4Arizona Coyotes2302245726272591
    5Winnipeg Jets2468255926662572
    6New York Rangers2316245226622570
    7Vegas Golden Knights2353252827022564
    8San Jose Sharks2418254527742559
    9Pittsburgh Penguins2339253927532548
    10Montreal Canadiens2378251026192546
    11Carolina Hurricanes2344248426642540
    12Minnesota Wild2344250526732528
    13Florida Panthers2308244226182525
    14Boston Bruins2421254426702523
    15Philadelphia Flyers2254242925582523
    16Vancouver Canucks2251246526062518
    17St. Louis Blues2364248026262512
    18Columbus Blue Jackets2388253626412503
    19Chicago Blackhawks2227240825442491
    20Los Angeles Kings2285240225272488
    21Nashville Predators2270254027412477
    22Dallas Stars2368249326002452
    23Ottawa Senators2273243925792412
    24Detroit Red Wings2273242825832401
    25Toronto Maple Leafs2399257426922399
    26Buffalo Sabres2387250926742394
    27Washington Capitals2390255427142390
    28Anaheim Ducks2252244826562378
    29New Jersey Devils2351245326662364
    30Colorado Avalanche2313250927032359
    31Edmonton Oilers2327247126352341

    DivisionAvg Score
    Pacific2514
    Metropolitan2512
    Atlantic2487
    Central2484

    ConferenceAvg Score
    Western2500
    Eastern2499

    I will try to update the rankings regularly



    Cheers :thumbu:
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2019 at 10:21 AM
  2. JIMVINNY

    JIMVINNY Registered User

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    I like it. Doesn't mean much this early, but it'll be interesting to compare this to the actual standings later on down the road.
     
  3. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Updated the rankings for Oct 10 2018.
     
  4. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Updated rankings for Oct 11 2018
     
  5. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Updated rankings for Oct 15 2018 are
     
  6. Siignal

    Siignal Registered User

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    This is some solid, interesting OC and will be interesting to follow and compare to subjective power rankings. You da man OP
     
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  7. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Updated rankings for Oct 16 2018
     
  8. NyQuil

    NyQuil Neon NyQuil

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    We're 6th here and in the Power Rankings we are 20th.

    Beating the Leafs probably accounts for a lot of that.

    Split the difference? 13th?

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2018
  9. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Yeah, I think a lot of the power rankings are based on preconceptions. After losing Karlsson the Sens were supposed to be a bottom feeder in the league... last place for sure, so the Sens have to overcome that mental hurdle in rankings. You are the only team to beat the leafs. Just beat a decent team in Dallas. 9th in the league in points. 7 points in 5 games, how can you be 20th!?

    But ultimately, this is purely mathematical. The wins the senators got at the time they got them gained them enough points to put them in 6th position.

    Note I consider an OT/SO loss to be half a loss, and OT/SO win to be half a win

    This following shows the Senators trend. Every team started at 2500.

    [2018-10-04,Chicago Blackhawks,4:2500 to 2525, Ottawa Senators,3: 2500 to 2475, OTSO] LOST 25 points
    [2018-10-06,Ottawa Senators,5:2475 to 2532,Toronto Maple Leafs,3:2525 to 2468] GAINED 57 points
    [2018-10-08,Ottawa Senators,3:2532 to 2478,Boston Bruins,6:2507 to 2561] LOST 54 points
    [2018-10-10,Philadelphia Flyers,7:2440 to 2495,Ottawa Senators,4:2478 to 2423] LOST 55 points
    [2018-10-13,Los Angeles Kings,1:2526 to 2462,Ottawa Senators,5:2423 to 2487] GAINED 64 points
    [2018-10-15,Dallas Stars,1:2587 to 2523,Ottawa Senators,4:2487 to 2551] GAINED 64 points

    The last two wins were big gains.
     
  10. NyQuil

    NyQuil Neon NyQuil

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    Ottawa is in the midst of their season longest homestand of 5 games.

    Things will be interesting on the road when less matching is possible.
     
  11. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Updated rankings for Oct 17 2018.
    Devils are on fire.
     
  12. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Updated rankings for Oct 18 2018.

    Latest changes:
    [2018-10-17, New York Islanders (1): 2487 -> 2444, Anaheim Ducks (4): 2538 -> 2581]
    [2018-10-17, Boston Bruins (2): 2620 -> 2559, Calgary Flames (5): 2543 -> 2604]
    [2018-10-17, St. Louis Blues (2): 2427 -> 2392, Montreal Canadiens (3): 2535 -> 2570]
    [2018-10-17, New York Rangers (3): 2410 -> 2393, Washington Capitals (4): 2467 -> 2484, OTSO]
     
  13. MoreOrr

    MoreOrr B4

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    The Devils at 2"666"... sounds about right.
     
  14. joe dirte

    joe dirte Registered User

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    Cheers to this guy for doing this work. It's an interesting perspective.
     
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  15. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Updated rankings for Oct 19 2018

    Latest changes:
    [2018-10-18, Philadelphia Flyers (3): 2446 -> 2405, Columbus Blue Jackets (6): 2511 -> 2552]
    [2018-10-18, Arizona Coyotes (4): 2368 -> 2436, Chicago Blackhawks (1): 2498 -> 2430]
    [2018-10-18, Boston Bruins (2): 2559 -> 2526, Edmonton Oilers (3): 2503 -> 2536, OTSO]
    [2018-10-18, New York Islanders (7): 2444 -> 2493, Los Angeles Kings (2): 2435 -> 2386]
    [2018-10-18, Colorado Avalanche (5): 2497 -> 2570, New Jersey Devils (3): 2666 -> 2593]
    [2018-10-18, Buffalo Sabres (1): 2470 -> 2413, San Jose Sharks (5): 2420 -> 2477]
    [2018-10-18, Detroit Red Wings (1): 2336 -> 2316, Tampa Bay Lightning (3): 2582 -> 2602]
    [2018-10-18, Pittsburgh Penguins (3): 2466 -> 2541, Toronto Maple Leafs (0): 2661 -> 2586]
    [2018-10-18, Vancouver Canucks (1): 2563 -> 2508, Winnipeg Jets (4): 2526 -> 2581]
     
  16. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Updated rankings for Oct 20 2018

    Latest changes:
    [2018-10-19, Nashville Predators (5): 2656 -> 2699, Calgary Flames (3): 2604 -> 2561]
    [2018-10-19, Minnesota Wild (3): 2476 -> 2528, Dallas Stars (1): 2488 -> 2436]
    [2018-10-19, Florida Panthers (6): 2374 -> 2414, Washington Capitals (5): 2484 -> 2444, OTSO]
     
  17. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Updated rankings for Oct 22 2018

    Latest changes:
    [2018-10-20, Colorado Avalanche (3): 2570 -> 2609, Carolina Hurricanes (1): 2492 -> 2453]
    [2018-10-20, Chicago Blackhawks (4): 2430 -> 2497, Columbus Blue Jackets (1): 2552 -> 2485]
    [2018-10-20, Nashville Predators (3): 2699 -> 2727, Edmonton Oilers (0): 2536 -> 2508]
    [2018-10-20, Detroit Red Wings (4): 2316 -> 2355, Florida Panthers (3): 2414 -> 2375, OTSO]
    [2018-10-20, Buffalo Sabres (5): 2413 -> 2459, Los Angeles Kings (1): 2386 -> 2340]
    [2018-10-20, Tampa Bay Lightning (4): 2602 -> 2567, Minnesota Wild (5): 2528 -> 2563, OTSO]
    [2018-10-20, Montreal Canadiens (3): 2570 -> 2542, Ottawa Senators (4): 2551 -> 2579, OTSO]
    [2018-10-20, New Jersey Devils (2): 2593 -> 2518, Philadelphia Flyers (5): 2405 -> 2480]
    [2018-10-20, New York Islanders (1): 2493 -> 2441, San Jose Sharks (4): 2477 -> 2529]
    [2018-10-20, St. Louis Blues (4): 2392 -> 2467, Toronto Maple Leafs (1): 2586 -> 2511]
    [2018-10-20, Boston Bruins (1): 2526 -> 2498, Vancouver Canucks (2): 2508 -> 2536, OTSO]
    [2018-10-20, Anaheim Ducks (1): 2581 -> 2518, Vegas Golden Knights (3): 2488 -> 2551]
    [2018-10-20, Arizona Coyotes (3): 2436 -> 2406, Winnipeg Jets (5): 2581 -> 2611]
    [2018-10-21, Buffalo Sabres (4): 2459 -> 2517, Anaheim Ducks (2): 2518 -> 2460]
    [2018-10-21, Tampa Bay Lightning (6): 2567 -> 2607, Chicago Blackhawks (3): 2497 -> 2457]
    [2018-10-21, Calgary Flames (4): 2561 -> 2589, New York Rangers (1): 2393 -> 2365]
     
  18. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Updated rankings for Oct 23 2018

    Latest changes:
    [2018-10-22, Carolina Hurricanes (3): 2453 -> 2489, Detroit Red Wings (1): 2355 -> 2319]
    [2018-10-22, Colorado Avalanche (4): 2609 -> 2641, Philadelphia Flyers (1): 2480 -> 2448]
    [2018-10-22, Washington Capitals (5): 2444 -> 2507, Vancouver Canucks (2): 2536 -> 2473]
    [2018-10-22, St. Louis Blues (4): 2467 -> 2462, Winnipeg Jets (5): 2611 -> 2616, OTSO]
     
  19. MNNumbers

    MNNumbers Registered User

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    Just exactly how does the calculation work?
     
  20. tucker3434

    tucker3434 HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    #2 huh? This is clearly the best ranking system in existence.
     
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  21. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    This site explains it well.

    How To Calculate the Elo-Rating (including Examples)
    In my ranking system every team starts with 2500 and I use a K constant of 100

    Basically, a higher ranked team is expected to win against a lower ranked team.

    The numbers in this example are not accurate at all but just to demenstrate

    Say a team has a score of 2600 goes plays a team with score 2400
    An expected win score is calculated (see site above). Expected score could be something like 70% or 0.7

    A win is scored as 1 and a loss is scored as 0

    If the team wins then they score 1, exceeded the expected score by o.3. Multiply that by 100 (K), that team earns 30 points to become 2630
    The other team's expected score was 0.3, they scored 0, so they lose 30 points and become 2370.

    If the lower team won then they exceeded expectations by 0.7 and earn 70 points: 2470
    loser team loses 70 points: 2530

    Beating a higher ranking team earns you a lot of points. Beating a lower ranked team earns you fewer points
    Similarly losing to a higher ranked team costs you fewer points and losing to a lower ranked team costs you a lot of points

    :thumbu:
     
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  22. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Yup, streaks can swing teams wildly. The Avalanche beat the red hot Devils and then went on a 3 game win streak. Their score jumped from 2497 to 2641.

    The question is can they stay there? Losing to a lower ranked team (all but one) costs a lot of points.
     
  23. MNNumbers

    MNNumbers Registered User

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    If this is true, then all games in the ELO system are worth (1.0). In other words, the expectation in your example, is... 0.7 + 0.3. Correct? Then, what needs to happen for shootout games is that a win needs to be worth (0.75 or 0.667 or 0.6, but since they won, more than 0.5), and a shootout loss the equivalent up from zero. {EDIT....I see you are using 0.5 for each and effectively treating them as ties.}

    Now, here is the thing that bothers me about the ELO system:
    1- Why is K=100? Is there some mathematical reason for this? Note that anyone has ever explained to me (And another poster here has his own website and does as well. I think he is 'morehockeystats' or something like that. EDIT: Here is his site:NHL Teams Elo ratings for each season) The K=100 is purely a guess.
    2- Does this take home ice into consideration? There is definitely a home ice factor. No question.
    3- At this point, Elo (someone explained that it's a man's last name, so it isn't ALL CAPS. I don't know if that's true or not) has so little information to go on that, while it's certainly valid in some sense, it's a little premature.
    4- What happens if some teams which are right now "good" end up showing themselves to be actually (fair - to - bad) by the time we get to 26 games. Then, teams who have beaten them now get far more benefit than they deserve.

    What to do about all of this is a big question, of course.

    Last year I created a purely mathematical ranking system with no assumptions. It works off of the Bradley-Terry model of rankings. It can be modified to include home-ice, which I did. And, by the time the season was over, the results of that system so closely mimicked the actual standings, that I actually gave up the project. By March 4, it wasn't yielding any information that wasn't accessible from the standings.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2018
  24. Sk8M8

    Sk8M8 Registered User

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  25. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    I had to make decisions in order for this to work. 1 for a win. 0 for a loss is standard. OT and SO games are close so I scored them at 0.75 and 0.25 for an OT/SO win and loss respectively.


    The value of K is usually 32, but it is irrelevant. I use 100 because it allows for a larger spread. If we use 32 or 50 or 100 or 768, it just creates a larger spread. The difference is in the fact that sometimes, like in chess, the value of K changes over time. For this ranking each team plays 82 games a year and for me it did not merit changing K.

    No, not taken into consideration. 41 home games and 41 away games balance out, imo. Determining how much home ice favors a team and how much that impacts their expected score is very subjective and can skew results.

    You're right. But I'm used to saying ELO now. :)

    Yes. Scoring is based on team scores at the time they play. A team can go on a tear and win several games in a row and then go on slump and lose several in a row. The first team to beat them and put them on their slump gets the most points. Beating a team when they are hot is harder to do and earns more points. It's a cold mathematical process and doesn't consider "fair-to-bad" or retroactively update scores.

    That's awesome, please share.
     
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