Prospect Info: NHL 2013 Draft || Episode III: Revenge of the Seth || Avs win the draft lottery

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

our system has destroyed stastny's production,

There's really no way anyone can say this is his problem for sure. I doubt other Gm's are going to bank on a faulty "system" as to the reason Paul's declining in production.

but I'm certain most agree Stas inserted on any other team's top 6 would be an upgrade:

No doubt, but when drafting in the top 5 teams aren't just looking for upgrades, they want franchise type players or at least players you can build around. So, teams don't trade lottery picks for upgrades.

chicago, toronto, florida -weiss prob leaving, anaheim, buffalo, cgy, NYI, CLB, NJ, Phx, and Nsh.

Give him a bit more credit. true about the hobey baker point though.

Not sure what the list of teams is for but the hawks wouldn't have intrest in him seeing his price tag, neither would Anaheim and NYI.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Stastnys price isnt as big of a deal because he has only one year left. I still believe we will get good return for him either draft or trade deadline. Who knows maybe Stastny has career season and we will get king's ransom.

 

[Avs71]

Wow, just did that whole look at the top defencemen from each draft exercise talked about on the first page. 2006 and 2008 are the only two drafts that are debatable where the best defenceman went first in the draft. While it doesn't have any impact on this draft, it is a scary trend nonetheless.

Are there any big, rugged, 2-way defenceman around the top 5 of the 2nd round?

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Wow, just did that whole look at the top defencemen from each draft exercise talked about on the first page. 2006 and 2008 are the only two drafts that are debatable where the best defenceman went first in the draft. While it doesn't have any impact on this draft, it is a scary trend nonetheless.

Are there any big, rugged, 2-way defenceman around the top 5 of the 2nd round?

If you do the exercise properly you'll notice that there are no better odds picking the best defender in the 2nd than 1st, let alone that you have a better chance of nabbing the best defender with the first defensive pick in the draft than at the top of the 2nd.

Yes, to answer your question. But ask Edmonton how that's going for them. All offense in the first round and all defense in the second round, they are still waiting for a top pairing guy to develop. Even Siemens doesn't look like he'll fill our #2 role entirely.

Seth Jones will, the odds of any defenders after him significantly decrease. I think we don't see any top pairing defenders in his draft after Jones tbh, lots of good top end forwards, depth players 2nd/3rd liners and 2nd pairing guys) but Jones is the only one that jumps out as a bonafied #1.

I see no reason to not draft Jones at #2 or #3 if he's there, but I also don't see him dropping below #2, so if we're not in that spot we probably won't get him anyways. Jones doesn't have to be the best in this draft to be a success. Hedman for instance, is a monster and very valuable tl TBL. Is he the best? No. But still very good.

 

[Avs71]

If you do the exercise properly you'll notice that there are no better odds picking the best defender in the 2nd than 1st, let alone that you have a better chance of nabbing the best defender with the first defensive pick in the draft than at the top of the 2nd.

Yes, to answer your question. But ask Edmonton how that's going for them. All offense in the first round and all defense in the second round, they are still waiting for a top pairing guy to develop. Even Siemens doesn't look like he'll fill our #2 role entirely.

Seth Jones will, the odds of any defenders after him significantly decrease. I think we don't see any top pairing defenders in his draft after Jones tbh, lots of good top end forwards, depth players 2nd/3rd liners and 2nd pairing guys) but Jones is the only one that jumps out as a bonafied #1.

I see no reason to not draft Jones at #2 or #3 if he's there, but I also don't see him dropping below #2, so if we're not in that spot we probably won't get him anyways. Jones doesn't have to be the best in this draft to be a success. Hedman for instance, is a monster and very valuable tl TBL. Is he the best? No. But still very good.

Oh don't get me wrong, if the Avs get first overall, I'd hope they pick Jones. Even if he tops out as an EJ, JJ, Hedman, Bogosian type player I'd be happy with him. If he gets to a Doughty/Pietrangelo level, well that'd be icing on the cake. Either way would go a long way to making this team competitive.

 

[TatteredTornNFrayed]

Guy on the radio this morning even commented, "What are you doing winning now?" I had to chuckle.

But really that has been an M.O. of this team under Sacco the whole time. We can go on winning streaks when it doesn't really matter. But when it matters this team often seems to crumble.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Guy on the radio this morning even commented, "What are you doing winning now?" I had to chuckle.

But really that has been an M.O. of this team under Sacco the whole time. We can go on winning streaks when it doesn't really matter. But when it matters this team often seems to crumble.

Totally true. We win games when It doesn't matter. If you look at history, last year we were really close to playoffs but then they **** the bed for 6 games in a row. This season they were close to making playoffs, but **** the bed for like 5 game losing streak. There's something wrong.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

It'd be nice to get another late 2nd before the draft some how.

I don't know how we would do it, but with this draft being so deep, we would get 4 quality prospects in the first 3 rounds if we could get another Top 100 pick.

Hoping we go either Forward, Defense, Defense. Or Defense, Forward, Forward with our first 3 picks. All depending on who we get with our 1st.


As a side, a guy that I played against for like 10 years through minor hockey is a projected Top 60 NA skater by Central Scouting. Would be neat if we ended up drafting him with our 3rd. Kinda surprised to see him ranked so highly, no doubt he was good, but there was always 3 or 4 guys on other teams I played against that I thought to be better then him.

 

[S E P H]

I won't list who I want in the 2nd round because IMO you choose whoever falls out of the 1st round.

 

[Foppa2118]

Best finish to the season IMO. Avs tank their next two games getting no points, and then win the last game to go into the off season on a high note.

That would give them 39 points, tied with Carolina, but the Canes win the ROW tiebreaker. We'd have to hope Tampa and Nashville both pick up at least a point in their remaining three games though. That would give Tampa 39 points with the ROW tiebreaker, and Nashville 40 points, since we'd win the ROW tiebreaker.

That would guarantee us a 29th place finish, and the second best odds in the lottery, to go along with going into the summer with a win.

 

[Foppa2118]

...Because he's better?

That's kind of what I'm getting at. I've settled on Mac as my #2 choice, but I thought they were a little closer in points. Drouin must have really pulled away at the end of the season since the last time I looked.

How did Mac not get in on any of those points though if they were on the same line? Are they on different PP units? Has Mac really been focusing on his defensive game, and being the 3rd man high while the wingers make the plays?

 

[Nihiliste]

If you do the exercise properly you'll notice that there are no better odds picking the best defender in the 2nd than 1st, let alone that you have a better chance of nabbing the best defender with the first defensive pick in the draft than at the top of the 2nd.

Right but like D2M mentioned, this comparison is misleading because we're talking about whether you'd rather take have Duchene/Tavares/Stamkos vs. Hedman/Doughty. The point is not that we shouldn't take Jones but just that we should take his dominance at this young age with a grain of salt because it's unlikely that he will truly wind up being head or shoulders above the other guys at the top of the draft. I think if he's on the board we have to take him but expectations should be tempered because in all likelihood he'll number amongst the top 10 best players from this draft in the long run but in all probability won't be a clearcut best player in the vein of Stamkos/Tavares.

That said worrying about draft history is silly because lets face it, if you wind up with a Doughty, Pietrangelo, OEL type player I don't think anyone would be complaining.

 

[henchman21]

Best finish to the season IMO. Avs tank their next two games getting no points, and then win the last game to go into the off season on a high note.

That would give them 39 points, tied with Carolina, but the Canes win the ROW tiebreaker. We'd have to hope Tampa and Nashville both pick up at least a point in their remaining three games though. That would give Tampa 39 points with the ROW tiebreaker, and Nashville 40 points, since we'd win the ROW tiebreaker.

That would guarantee us a 29th place finish, and the second best odds in the lottery, to go along with going into the summer with a win.

Probably pretty close to what will happen. Hopefully Nashville and Tampa can beat Calgary and Florida.

 

[Nihiliste]

That's kind of what I'm getting at. I've settled on Mac as my #2 choice, but I thought they were a little closer in points. Drouin must have really pulled away at the end of the season since the last time I looked.

How did Mac not get in on any of those points though if they were on the same line? Are they on different PP units? Has Mac really been focusing on his defensive game, and being the 3rd man high while the wingers make the plays?

Since Mac got hurt earlier in the season Drouin really stepped up his game. He's been producing at a way higher PPG for probably half the season.

I haven't watched them enough to analyze the reasons why but it has to get you thinking.

That said on Mackenzie's January list 8/10 scouts put Mac ahead of Drouin and a couple even put Barkov ahead. http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/story/?id=414864

I'm curious to see what his end of season list will be.

 

[Foppa2118]

Since Mac got hurt earlier in the season Drouin really stepped up his game. He's been producing at a way higher PPG for probably half the season.

I haven't watched them enough to analyze the reasons why but it has to get you thinking.

That said on Mackenzie's January list 8/10 scouts put Mac ahead of Drouin and a couple even put Barkov ahead. http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/story/?id=414864

I'm curious to see what his end of season list will be.

I am too, but they're basically useless in terms of who the Avs might pick. There's no way any of the Avs scouts are the ones McKenzie consults with.

They easily could go against the grain of what McKenzie's ranking is.

 

[Freudian]

Records after trade deadline

Calgary: 6-4-0
Edmonton: 1-7-0
Carolina: 2-7-1
Nashville: 0-7-1
Tampa: 2-6-2
Colorado: 3-3-3
Florida: 1-7-0

 

[TatteredTornNFrayed]

We're almost 100% not drafting #1, ...

Not really true. Avs still very likely to have at least a 10% or better chance of drafting #1.

 

[ScotAv]

If we can ship off some of the dead weight on defense, I'd be happy to take Drouin. I agree with a lot of the worry about Jones, he dominates but is he likely to be a bonifide #1 who puts up points? Or more like a #2 Suter-esque (pre-minnesota) who is the more defense orientated partner who puts up less points?

High end wingers are hard to come by, I'd like to give a Stastny for some left handed D help trade. Then let Barrie, Elliott and Siemens all duke it out at camp to fill some of the other spots. Can almost guarantee that Barrie and likely Elliott, based on recent performance, make it. Siemens is probably still unlikely.

Who knows, the new coach could make Zanon good.

 

[Rhaego]

I have a feeling we're going to win 2 more games and be sitting at 5th overall

 

[cgf]

If we can ship off some of the dead weight on defense, I'd be happy to take Drouin. I agree with a lot of the worry about Jones, he dominates but is he likely to be a bonifide #1 who puts up points? Or more like a #2 Suter-esque (pre-minnesota) who is the more defense orientated partner who puts up less points?

High end wingers are hard to come by, I'd like to give a Stastny for some left handed D help trade. Then let Barrie, Elliott and Siemens all duke it out at camp to fill some of the other spots. Can almost guarantee that Barrie and likely Elliott, based on recent performance, make it. Siemens is probably still unlikely.

Who knows, the new coach could make Zanon good.

We'd be lucky to have a pre-minnesota Suter playing next to EJ on our top pairing.

 

[NWAvs]

I can honestly say id be happy with any of the top three finally. Ive went through wanting Jones or bust, then was huge on Mack, now I really am liking Drouin. Lets just hope were bottom three by the end of the year, id hate for Nashville to get anything good.

 

[R S]

I would hope a kid like Morgan Klimchuk is one that "falls" to us in the 2nd round.

http://www.whl.ca/video/index/id/8b118908bb677c9976d06fcfcbb6d58b

 

[Congo Jack]

I would hope a kid like Morgan Klimchuk is one that "falls" to us in the 2nd round.

http://www.whl.ca/video/index/id/8b118908bb677c9976d06fcfcbb6d58b

I've been wanting him or Mirco Mueller as our second round pick for a while now. I think either one would be a great pick.

 

[cgf]

I want Staz to stick around even if we draft Mac. Having that third experienced C has been a major boon to Duchene and O'Reilly, whereas if we trade staz and insert mac, they would then become the experienced guys who give up their wingers to the younger still-transitioning kid. If we don't end up with Jones or Drouin and get MacKinnon we need to try him on the wings first, be it racing after PAP pass with Duchene, or having Staz hit him in stride on their own line.

 

[AvsRobin]

I want Staz to stick around even if we draft Mac. Having that third experienced C has been a major boon to Duchene and O'Reilly, whereas if we trade staz and insert mac, they would then become the experienced guys who give up their wingers to the younger still-transitioning kid. If we don't end up with Jones or Drouin and get MacKinnon we need to try him on the wings first, be it racing after PAP pass with Duchene, or having Staz hit him in stride on their own line.

Does Stastny want to stay or does he try the free agency waters if he is converted to a 3rd line center here? There is also the issue about the $. How much are we ready to play a 3rd line center? How much is he ready to drop down from his current 6.6M?