NHL 15: Season Simulation – Ottawa Senators Finish 29th

[HighlightReel93]

VIA: Nilsen Report

With the NHL season just around the corner, the folks at EA have put out a video that simulates the 2014/15 year.

The Ottawa Senators, my hometown team finish 29th out of 30 teams in this simulation and I am thrilled! CONNOR MCDAVID ANYBODY!?

NHL 15: SEASON SIMULATION

EASTERN CONFERENCE
After winning the President Trophy last year, the Boston Bruins continued to be the beasts of the East, finishing in the number one spot with 103 points. The Capitals couldn’t overcome an Ovechkin injury and finished in twelfth place. Meanwhile, the Red Wings record of 23 straight years of making the playoffs finally snapped.

Boston Bruins – 103 pts
Pittsburgh Penguins – 99 pts
New York Rangers – 98 pts
Philadelphia Flyers – 97 pts
Tampa Bay Lightning – 94 pts
Montreal Canadiens – 94 pts
Columbus Blue Jackets – 93 pts – Wild Card
Toronto Maple Leafs – 92 pts – Wild Card
New York Islanders – 91 pts
Carolina Hurricanes – 89 pts
Detroit Red Wings – 89 pts
Washington Capitals – 87 pts
New Jersey Devils – 78 pts
Florida Panthers – 78 pts
Buffalo Sabres – 77 pts
Ottawa Senators – 71 pts

WESTERN CONFERENCE

The Chicago Blackhawks finished the year as the top team in the NHL with 106 points, thanks in large part to a stellar campaign from Patrick Kane who notched 95 points. The Calgary Flames finished last overall and will have the best odds to pick first overall and decide between elite prospects Connor McDavid and Jake Eichel.

Chicago Blackhawks – 106 pts
Anaheim Ducks – 101 pts
St. Louis Blues – 99 pts
Colorado Avalanche – 96 pts
Los Angeles Kings – 95 pts
San Jose Sharks – 94 pts
Dallas Stars – 93 pts – Wild Card
Vancouver Canucks – 91 pts – Wild Card
Arizona Coyotes – 87 pts
Nashville Predators – 85 pts
Minnesota Wild – 85 pts
Edmonton Oilers – 83 pts
Winnipeg Jets – 82 pts
Calgary Flames – 64 pts

WATCH SIMULATION VIDEO BELOW!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRf8vv34YME

STANLEY CUP WINNERS: LOS ANGELES KINGS

Click to read more...

 

[BonkTastic]

So a video game that bases it's entire statistical model on the previous year's statistics & standings then goes on to predict a set of results that are largely reminiscent of that same previous year's statistics?

Shocking.

 

[Senacus Maximus]

LOL Buffalo beat us. Yeah right.

 

[Super Cake]

Ya, like i would trust what EA says. Their game is garbage and their simulations are garbage.

I saw their simulation last year and it was nowhere close to what really happened. They had the Blues winning the cup, but look what happened.

I could literally run the simulation over and over again and i would get different results each time.

I really do not understand why this is at all news worthy?

 

[Engineer]

The first few posters are taking a computer generated simulation much too seriously


The simulation is done for fun, who cares, you would be ecstatic if it had Ottawa with 90 pts.

 

[Indrew]

I could literally run the simulation over and over again and i would get different results each time.

Can you really count that as a negative?

 

[Super Cake]

The first few posters are taking a computer generated simulation much too seriously


The simulation is done for fun, who cares, you would be ecstatic if it had Ottawa with 90 pts.

I am not saying that i am taking it seriously, i am just saying that it is a joke of a simulation no matter where Ottawa ended up.

 

[TeamRenzo]

I wonder how accurate past years have been.

Would it really be shocking if Ottawa finishes 29th? There are so many questions marks on this season.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

I wonder how accurate past years have been.

Would it really be shocking if Ottawa finishes 29th? There are so many questions marks on this season.

2008: San Jose Sharks (2nd round)
2009: Boston Bruins (2nd round)
2010: Pittsburgh Penguins (2nd round)
2011: Vancouver Canucks (Stanley Cup Final)
2012: New York Rangers (Conference Final)
2013: St. Louis Blues (1st round)
2014: Boston Bruins (2nd round)

 

[BUCKLE UP]

 

[Engineer]

I wonder how accurate past years have been.

Would it really be shocking if Ottawa finishes 29th? There are so many questions marks on this season.

Here, lets compare from last year:

http://www.easports.com/nhl/news/2013/nhl-14-season-sim

Position|Simulation|Actual|Difference
1.| Pittsburgh | Boston |+1
2.| Boston | Pittsburg |-1
3.| Detroit | Tampa Bay |+10
4.| NYR | Montreal |+2
5.| Washington | NYR |-1
6.| Montreal | Philly |+4
7.| Toronto | Columbus |+5
8.| NYI | Detroit |-5
9.|Ottawa|Washington|+4
10.|Philly|New Jersey|+1
11.|NJD|Ottawa|-2
12.|Columbus|Toronto|-5
13.|Tampa|Carolina|+2
14.|Buffalo|NYI|-6
15.|Carolina|Florida|+1
16.|Florida|Buffalo|-2

Position|Simulation|Actual|Difference
1.| Chicago | Anaheim |+8
2.| LA | Colorado |+11
3.| St. Louis | St Louis |0
4.| Vancouver | San Jose |+1
5.| San Jose | Chicago |-4
6.| Minnesota | LA |-4
7.| Dallas | Minnesota |-1
8.| Edmonton | Dallas |-1
9.|Anaheim|Pheonix|+1
10.|Pheonix|Nashville|+1
11.|Nashville|Winnipeg|+1
12.|Winnipeg|Vancouver|-8
13.|Colorado|Calgary|+1
14.|Calgary|Edmonton|-6

57% of the estimated were within two positions from the actual

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Here, lets compare from last year:

http://www.easports.com/nhl/news/2013/nhl-14-season-sim

Position|Simulation|Actual|Difference
1.| Pittsburgh | Boston |+1
2.| Boston | Pittsburg |-1
3.| Detroit | Tampa Bay |+10
4.| NYR | Montreal |+2
5.| Washington | NYR |-1
6.| Montreal | Philly |+4
7.| Toronto | Columbus |+5
8.| NYI | Detroit |-5
9.|Ottawa|Washington|+4
10.|Philly|New Jersey|+1
11.|NJD|Ottawa|-2
12.|Columbus|Toronto|-5
13.|Tampa|Carolina|+2
14.|Buffalo|NYI|-6
15.|Carolina|Florida|+1
16.|Florida|Buffalo|-2

Position|Simulation|Actual|Difference
1.| Chicago | Anaheim |+8
2.| LA | Colorado |+11
3.| St. Louis | St Louis |0
4.| Vancouver | San Jose |+1
5.| San Jose | Chicago |-4
6.| Minnesota | LA |-4
7.| Dallas | Minnesota |-1
8.| Edmonton | Dallas |-1
9.|Anaheim|Pheonix|+1
10.|Pheonix|Nashville|+1
11.|Nashville|Winnipeg|+1
12.|Winnipeg|Vancouver|-8
13.|Colorado|Calgary|+1
14.|Calgary|Edmonton|-6

57% of the estimated were within two positions from the actual

And one-fifth of their guesses were six spots or more off the pace.

 

[Senacus Maximus]

The first few posters are taking a computer generated simulation much too seriously


The simulation is done for fun, who cares, you would be ecstatic if it had Ottawa with 90 pts.

Not taking it seriously. Just laughing at the fact that Buffalo finishes ahead of us.

Even HF thinks we'll beat Buffalo.

 

[Busboy]

This is thE same game where Karlsson is an 89 overall and Kesler is a 90 overall. Keep that in mind I guess.

Other players rated the same as Karlsson include :
David Backes
Ryan Miller
Roberto Luongo
Patrick Marleau

 

[Engineer]

And one-fifth of their guesses were six spots or more off the pace.

yep 20% of the estimates were severely off
57% were quite close
23% were off by a decent margin

pretty unreliable, as expected, the teams that aren't as questionable stacked up pretty well where you would expect, the teams I would have considered to be more questionable going into 2013/14 tended to deviate more heavily such as columbus, colorado, van, edm, toronto..

Pretty much little info, if any at all, comes out of the simulation, but i think we all knew that beforehand.

 

[Super Cake]

The problem with simulations that they don't take any of the factors that can happen in a real game into account.

They don't take injuries, luck, chances of a player breaking out, the coach or even the refs into account.

The fact that they have Ottawa below Buffalo and Carolina above teams such the wings, devils and capitals just goes to show how much faith people should put into these simulations.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

yeah, seems like the same thing every year with estimates from various sources.

Did the team take a step up last year? If the answer is yes, make them the new contenders in the division.

Did a team make some high profile sexy trades? If the answer is yes, boost them.

Did a team take a step backwards last year? If yes, put them in the basement.


Way too many over-reactions. Remember last year hen the Fan Forecaster said we'd win the Cup in 2013-14 because we were Cinderellas last year? How did that work out?


I think anyone who bets heavily on the Rangers or Bruins going far are in for a disappointment. Bruins have a really old core that cracked badly against Montreal....feels like that team is going to shatter this year. Rangers always seem to take a nasty drop whenever they overachieve. Their stable of kids really aren't legit replacements for what they've lost the past 2 years.

But.....I wouldn't be surprised if Buffalo finishes ahead of someone in the East...or a few someones. The character, leadership and work ethic brought to that team to teach the kids could result in a big temporary spike in the standings.

 

[PatrickEaves]

Team can't even tank correctly.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Here's to hoping EA is accurate, a cup is obviously the goal but if not (because let's be honest here the Sens are likely not challenging for it this year) then this is easily the next best thing!

A top 3 pick in this years draft would have me celebrating like it was 2007 pre finals all over again.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Here's to hoping EA is accurate, a cup is obviously the goal but if not (because let's be honest here the Sens are likely not challenging for it this year) then this is easily the next best thing!

A top 3 pick in this years draft would have me celebrating like it was 2007 pre finals all over again.

Yeah, a top pick in this draft would be something. This is one year where I don't really care too much where we end up. Top 10 picks are all gold this year.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Yeah, a top pick in this draft would be something. This is one year where I don't really care too much where we end up. Top 10 picks are all gold this year.

Same feeling exactly....i am just praying please lord no in between....be decent and actually compete or pack it in early and let's start thinking about what sweater number Eichel/McDavid/Hanafin will wear with us next year!

 

[StefanW]

I'm waiting for someone to do, and post, a simulation using coin tosses.

 

[Bob Kudelski]

I just simulated a playoff season in NHL '94 and the Senators won the Cup with their goalie pulled for the entire game, every game. (I played as the Senators).

So, IF the Sens make the playoffs, I think they will win the Cup with this strategy.

 

[HavlatMach9]

The problem with simulations that they don't take any of the factors that can happen in a real game into account.

They don't take injuries, luck, chances of a player breaking out, the coach or even the refs into account.

The fact that they have Ottawa below Buffalo and Carolina above teams such the wings, devils and capitals just goes to show how much faith people should put into these simulations.

without how long NHL games take for me to simulate, you have to believe they are counting all that

 

[Caeldan]

I'm waiting for someone to do, and post, a simulation using coin tosses.

I've done playoff pools like that - and the coin toss actually won the pool.