Rosters and Ratings: NHL 13 player growth

[Gusto73]

This system blows there is no rhyme or reason to it in my experience, they should have just kept the old system IMO

My goalie who finished with 82 starts and won the cup with a 1.99 gaa and 91.9 sv% didn't get a single point either

He is 22 with 4 and a half stars

So to sum it up my 22 year old winger who had 58 points and goalie who had good numbers didnt get a single point of improvement at age 22 when in reality players progress the fastest (between 18 and 25 usually)

This is completely unrealistic and in my opinion kinda ruins bagm mode...if it was this random I wish they just left the xp system in place instead of this crap they have now

Hopefully this was a bug or glitch or something and isn't a reality because I love bagm mode in the past just to develop players into a custom team eventually I love how exciting it is to have a young stud progress into a star in the league

Anyon have any different experiences or is this the norm you guys are seeing?

 

[Gusto73]

On a side note I understand that the overall rating seem to be lower (ovi maxed out at a 92) so I'm not saying I expect a ton of 99s

Just in real life if a guy came into the league at 20 n in 2 years had 70+ goals and north of 120 points, barring a bad injury it's extremely unrealistic to think he wouldn't improve his game at 22

 

[Kairi Zaide]

I like the fact players can progress or regress depending on the season they just had.

However, what I hate about player's growth is the fact that it seems only a few attributes will go up drastically while others will remain low. Look at the offensive attributes of some prospects who just boomed... easy 90+'s everywhere. 99 in every shot categorie is not rare.

 

[Kellogs]

I love the idea of statistic based growth but it seems flawed,

Had that sniper (82 overall 21 years old 4stars) put up 60 points in 2nd year

He gained 0 overall.....

Had a 20 year old snp also on 3rd line put up 45 points same potential

He gained 0 overall as well

Had a playmaker play in AHL all year came up with 10 NHL games had 1 point in them and 55 points in minors

4 and a half stars 21 years old

He went from 73 to 77 overall

I'm just really confused by this I think statistic based growth is awesome but judging by this it seems screwy

Can anyone make sense of this? Maybe snipers have limited growth because they seem to improve shooting almost exclusively?

I'm going to reload right after the last game of post season to see if it comes out different and hopefully it hasn't factored improvements yet I'd like to re run it 10 or so times to see trends maybe I was just unlucky this time around

Anyone make sense of this it would really suck if such a good young guy wasted a year of improvement

You're looking at things too simplistically. Overall doesn't tell the whole picture. If your player put up 60 points in the NHL while being 82 overall already, that tells me his offensive attributes (OA, SSP, SSA, WSP, WSA) are probably already high. Whatever improvements he may have gained in these already high attributes were probably too small to make a noticeable improvement in the OVR rating. I would also hazard a guess that it's the players' defensive ratings that are holding them back from the OVR improvement.

Also, I have come to suspect that statistics based growth has a much larger impact the closer the player is to reaching his prime.

its pure randomness.

It's not pure randomness. If it was, then people would be seeing things like Yakupov getting a massive OVR boost after year 1 similar to other players like Huberdeau, and vice versa. At worst, what we're seeing is that players seem to have a predetermined development curve.

Im pretty convinced it's 75% random. I've put players in all types of situations and little changes. I've had guys jump 5+ ovr who's stats were low and guys not even progress with #1 minutes, etc.

What I have noticed is after ELC's if you look and see what it would take to sign them for 8 years, you can get an idea if that player's going to grow or not. For instance, I had my only #1 overall pick in roughly 2025. The guy played his ELC out in the AHL. Never hit 70. I then signed him for a two year deal for around 1.5 million. If I looked at what he wanted on an 8 year deal it went up over $10 million. He became a top2 defenseman another 6 years later, which coincided with where those dollar values increased dramatically.

So I now look at a guy who's ELC is expired. Even if he's a 64 for example. I look to see what giving him an 8 yr deal would be and if it jumps considerable at any point, I know he'll mature into an NHL player. Also, look at the guy's trade value. If it increases or stays the same, he'll probably progress. Beware of signing them to those long 1 way deals though. It might take another 3-5 years for the guy to progress.

Interesting theory, I will look into it. Would tie in well with my previous comment concerning predetermined development curves.

 

[Gusto73]

I checked his stats and I didn't see any improvements in anything (a few stats I remembered) maybe I'm missing some

 

[Petes2424]

You're looking at things too simplistically. Overall doesn't tell the whole picture. If your player put up 60 points in the NHL while being 82 overall already, that tells me his offensive attributes (OA, SSP, SSA, WSP, WSA) are probably already high. Whatever improvements he may have gained in these already high attributes were probably too small to make a noticeable improvement in the OVR rating. I would also hazard a guess that it's the players' defensive ratings that are holding them back from the OVR improvement.

Also, I have come to suspect that statistics based growth has a much larger impact the closer the player is to reaching his prime.



It's not pure randomness. If it was, then people would be seeing things like Yakupov getting a massive OVR boost after year 1 similar to other players like Huberdeau, and vice versa. At worst, what we're seeing is that players seem to have a predetermined development curve.



Interesting theory, I will look into it. Would tie in well with my previous comment concerning predetermined development curves.

Im still not 100% sure but obviously there's some sort of connection.

Also, just as a side note... I like how it seems easier to make a trade based on what the other teams put in their block, etc, BUT I have two examples that make absolutely no sense.

I have a goaltender currently who is labeled as "Elite" and he's only 25 years old. He's won a Calder and a Conn Smythe. I need to shed salary and I got stuck paying him $14 million a season. I cant move him for the life of me and get anything remotely close to value.

Another example, once again trying to shed salary, I had a 33 year old RW playmaker who has been averaging 70 points. He only had one year left on his deal and I couldnt move him for a 33 year old playmaker who's been averaging 50 pts but had two years left on his deal. I also couldnt get a legitimate prospect for him.

There just seems to be "built in" attributes within the game that lead to very unrealistic outcomes, especially later in the game.

Things seem to get pretty out of whack come the 2030s....

 

[Gusto73]

It just aggravates me that a young promising player can miss a year of growth for no apparent reason

I could see if maybe they had a bad year or big injury but that wasn't the case for the 3 I had get zip

For the most part player dev was making sense until this happened

 

[n00bxQb]

I'm playing as Nashville in a GMC sim league and my defensemen are growing way too fast ... I have 11 NHL-capable defensemen going into 2014-2015 ... It's insane!

 

[DekiSystem]

I'm playing as Nashville in a GMC sim league and my defensemen are growing way too fast ... I have 11 NHL-capable defensemen going into 2014-2015 ... It's insane!

Trade them for picks/ players depending on how long you plan to play General Manager Connected.

 

[n00bxQb]

Trade them for picks/ players depending on how long you plan to play General Manager Connected.

It's a sim league, so it's going 15-20 seasons as far as I'm aware.

With the number of injuries in this game, I like to have at least 8 good NHL-capable dmen.

I'm trying to trade some guys who have regressed (Chris Butler and Kevin Klein), but their contracts are just anchors ...

 

[Olax]

It seems pretty random to me. I traded for Strome in our GM-connected league and he had 3 star potential. He had played around 40 games at the time and had 2g and 1a. I don't know his potential at the start of the game, but im pretty sure that it should be at least 3,5 stars, maybe even 4. So does he really have such a low potential at the start or has he regressed that much mid-season?

On a side note I love the new player growth system in Fifa 13! The younger players grow throughout the season a lot if they play well. Older guys regress easily if they don't get to play or play poorly. For example, I bought a relatively young goalkeeper (21yo) who had a 77 OVR rating at the offseason, now in the midseason he is already 81 since he's got a lot of games and has played well. Also a guy who was 68 OVR at the start of the game, got a chance to play in the pre-season and played pretty well, pretty much immediately turned to a 70 OVR player.

That's how it should be in NHL series too! You could get steals in trades and drafts more easily if they get more ice time on your team and/or play well. For example if you trade for a third-liner at the deadline and he puts up some very good numbers, he should progress a bit by the start of the playoffs/end of the season.

-L-

 

[Taak19]

In 2 different saves with the Avalanche:

Erik Johnson jumps from 85 to 89 in both saves.

Gabriel Landeskog jumps from 82 to 85 in one save and does not change from 82 in the other.

Matt Duchene jumps from 85 to 87 in one save and does not change from 85 in the other.

Semyon Varlamov jumps from 81-2? to 87 in one save and jumps to 84 in the other.

Duncan Siemens jumps from 69 to 75 in both saves.

 

[Nordic*]

So....if the ratings reflect the performance during the last season, I could put a young 75-prospect on the top-line with two superstars, have him get 80 easy points and raise his rating 10 steps during the off season?



And another question. If an average player ends up very high in the scoring race, let's say top-5; wouldn't his value double or even triple?



A totally other question. Is it possible to find a real gem in the later rounds, like round 4-7? To me it seems they're all crap?

 

[tsujimoto74]

So....if the ratings reflect the performance during the last season, I could put a young 75-prospect on the top-line with two superstars, have him get 80 easy points and raise his rating 10 steps during the off season?



And another question. If an average player ends up very high in the scoring race, let's say top-5; wouldn't his value double or even triple?



A totally other question. Is it possible to find a real gem in the later rounds, like round 4-7? To me it seems they're all crap?

1) No, not necessarily. Generally, it will backfire if you put a player in over his head. I try never to play my prospects more than 1, maybe 2, lines ahead of where the game says they should play (ie: "3rd liner scorer" no higher than the 2nd line, "depth forward" no higher than 3rd). Conversely, if you play prospects below where the game indicates their skill level is, they'll usually regress.

2) It doesn't seem to work that way. Trade value seems like it's based entirely off a combination of: overall, salary, and potential. Actual production doesn't seem to factor in much, if at all.

3) Yeah, pretty much everyone after the 3rd round is awful. The highest potential I've found in the 4th round is 3.5 yellow stars, and that was only once. Every other pick 4th-7th has been 2-2.5 stars.

 

[Gusto73]

I agree completely that they need some way of developing during the season

A guy who gets a lot of goal numbers ESP on the power play they should in turn get a small raise in offensive stats

A guy who blocks a lot of shots should get a boost to shot blocking

Averaging a couple hits a game-small BCHK

Just the development is a bit to random for me

 

[Petes2424]

Ive been testing over the last day here trying to find logic in these ratings.

Im in 2034. I blew my drafts up for the next 7 years and drafted the first three players in the draft.

Center 18..... 4 yellow stars..... 65 ovr
1yr 4 yellow stars..... 66 ovr 7 g 7 a -15

L Wing 18..... 4 yellow stars..... 66 ovr
1yr 4 yellow stars..... 74 ovr 16 g 22 a -7

R Wing 19.... 3.5 yellow stars... 59 ovr
1yr 3.5 yellow starts.. 61 ovr 3 g 16 a -11


I've signed them all and put them all on the first line. I've gutted my team with a few years left in the game to get a better judgment of how these ratings work. I also have the following..

D...... 19.... 3.5 stars........ 64 ovr
1yr 3.5 stars........ 67 ovr 3 g 11 a -20

D...... 23.... 3.5 stars........ 72 ovr
1 yr 3.5 stars........ 76 ovr 7 g 23 a -16

Those are the NHL guys Im testing

In the AHL I took some similiar guys and put them into slots for top minutes.

Center.. 20... 3.5 stars..... 68 ovr
1yr 3.5 stars..... 72 ovr 13g 23 a -24

LW....... 22.... 3.5 stars.... 62 ovr
1yr 3.5 srars... 64 ovr 15 g 26 a +12

RW...... 20.... 4 stars...... 61 ovr
1yr 4 stars..... 63 ovr 12g 17 a -6

D......... 18.... 4 stars....... 62 ovr
1yr 4 stars...... 66 ovr 8g 3a -25

D......... 21.... 2.5 stars.... 72 ovr
1yr 2.5 stars.... 72 ovr 10g 17a +3

I'll try and sim the second season today and update where these guys are at. It just still seems so random to me. The guy who did produce the most stats in the NHL did rise the most however. Very small movements. The reason Im using the 2.5 star guy in the AHL is when you play the game, he's a beast. His not moving a single digit at 21 years old makes no sense to me. The guy who moved the most was drafted 3rd overall btw.

 

[n00bxQb]

Starting to notice a pattern: Most players break out at age 25.

 

[Petes2424]

Starting to notice a pattern: Most players break out at age 25.

Especially dmen...

On another note that was mentioned a few posts ago. It's very odd to have a player progress after the first few rounds of the draft. Im almost done with a 25 year game and I've seen a select few.

 

[JerseyGuy276]

Especially dmen...

On another note that was mentioned a few posts ago. It's very odd to have a player progress after the first few rounds of the draft. Im almost done with a 25 year game and I've seen a select few.

You see, that bothers me, because I use to enjoy the draft because I found a few 3rd and 4th line players in the 5-7th rounds.

 

[Petes2424]

Starting to notice a pattern: Most players break out at age 25.

Especially dmen...

On another note that was mentioned a few posts ago. It's very odd to have a player progress after the first few rounds of the draft. Im almost done with a 25 year game and I've seen a select few.

 

[Kellogs]

It's quite predictable that late round gems would never occur in this game. Most late round picks in 12 were crap to begin with, just like they are in 13. However in 12, a player's ceiling (aka potential) would change randomly, meaning that C potential player could turn into a B potential player and if developed correctly could become a legitimate steal. Even if potential didn't change in 12, at least the later rounds were sprinkled with players with good potential. The biggest mistake imo is the fact that you can view a player's potential before he's drafted now.

 

[Petes2424]

Ive been testing over the last day here trying to find logic in these ratings.

Center 18..... 4 yellow stars..... 65 ovr (1st overall)
1yr 4 yellow stars..... 66 ovr 7 g 7 a -15
2yr 4 yellow stars..... 67 ovr 9 g 8 a -1

L Wing 18..... 4 yellow stars..... 66 ovr (3rd overall)
1yr 4 yellow stars..... 74 ovr 16 g 22 a -7
2yr 4 yellow stars..... 79 ovr 26 g 16 a +10

R Wing 19.... 3.5 yellow stars... 59 ovr (2nd overall)
1yr 3.5 yellow starts.. 61 ovr 3 g 16 a -11
2yr 3.5 yellow stars .. 64 ovr 4 g 25 a +8


I've signed them all and put them all on the first line. I've gutted my team with a few years left in the game to get a better judgment of how these ratings work. I also have the following..

D...... 19.... 3.5 stars........ 64 ovr (21st overall)
1yr 3.5 stars........ 67 ovr 3 g 11 a -20
2yr 3.5 stars........ 71 ovr 5 g 6 a -8

D...... 23.... 3.5 stars........ 72 ovr (20th overall)
1 yr 3.5 stars........ 76 ovr 7 g 23 a -16
2 yr 3.5 stars........ 81 ovr 4 g 27 a -23

Those are the NHL guys Im testing

In the AHL I took some similiar guys and put them into slots for top minutes.

Center.. 20... 3.5 stars..... 68 ovr
1yr 3.5 stars..... 72 ovr 13g 23 a -24
2yr 3.5 stars..... 73 ovr 22g 29 a -7

LW....... 22.... 3.5 stars.... 62 ovr
1yr 3.5 stars... 64 ovr 15 g 26 a +12
2yr 3.5 stars... 69 ovr 11 g 18a -7

RW...... 20.... 4 stars...... 61 ovr
1yr 4 stars..... 63 ovr 12g 17 a -6
2yr 4 stars..... 65 ovr 12g 18 a -6

D......... 18.... 4 stars....... 62 ovr
1yr 4 stars...... 66 ovr 8g 3a -25
2yr 4 stars...... 69 ovr 8g 4a +10

D......... 21.... 2.5 stars.... 72 ovr
1yr 2.5 stars.... 72 ovr 10g 17a +3
2yr 2.5 stars.... 72 ovr 8g 10a -23

I've now completely simmed two seasons and the pattern is pretty dull except for a couple guys. The guy who did produce the most stats in the NHL did rise the most however. The #1 overall pick has progressed 2 pts in 2 years. Very small movements. The reason Im using the 2.5 star guy in the AHL is when you play the game, he's a beast. His not moving a single digit at 22 years old makes no sense to me. The guy who moved the most was drafted 3rd overall btw. the guy who hit 81 also happened to just turn 25, which seems to be the age dmen are really coming into their own. His stats were worse than his 1st year though...

 

[Nordic*]

.text.

Interesting post. It seems to me, that players develop randomly.

I had a player gain like 15 points in rating over a season by playing junior hockey, while Granlund has only gained 9 points over the last four years.

 

[Nordic*]

I reached the finals in the SC with Edmonton, and almost all my players LOST at least one point in rating til the next season, how is that possible??

Jeff Petry, for instance, was an 87 and lost three points as a 28 year old?

Hall, Nugent and Yakupov all lost 1-2 points? OEL lost three points?


Why??

 

[Petes2424]

Ive been testing over the last days here trying to find logic in these ratings.

Center 18..... 4 yellow stars..... 65 ovr (1st overall)
1yr 4 yellow stars..... 66 ovr 7 g 7 a -15
2yr 4 yellow stars..... 67 ovr 9 g 8 a -1
3yr 4 yellow stars..... 68 ovr 9 g 9 a +4

L Wing 18..... 4 yellow stars..... 66 ovr (3rd overall)
1yr 4 yellow stars..... 74 ovr 16 g 22 a -7
2yr 4 yellow stars..... 79 ovr 26 g 16 a +10
3yr 4 yellow stars..... 80 ovr 26g 23 a -3

R Wing 19.... 3.5 yellow stars... 59 ovr (2nd overall)
1yr 3.5 yellow starts.. 61 ovr 3 g 16 a -11
2yr 3.5 yellow stars .. 64 ovr 4 g 25 a +8
3yr 3.5 yellow stars.. 64 ovr 1 g 4 a -13


I've signed them all and put them all on the first line. I've gutted my team with a few years left in the game to get a better judgment of how these ratings work. I also have the following..

D...... 19.... 3.5 stars........ 64 ovr (21st overall)
1yr 3.5 stars........ 67 ovr 3 g 11 a -20
2yr 3.5 stars........ 71 ovr 5 g 6 a -8
3yr 3.5 stars........ 73 ovr 0g 9a -9

D...... 23.... 3.5 stars........ 72 ovr (20th overall)
1 yr 3.5 stars........ 76 ovr 7 g 23 a -16
2 yr 3.5 stars........ 81 ovr 4 g 27 a -23
3 yr 3.5 stars....... 85 ovr 11g 28a +5

Those are the NHL guys Im testing

In the AHL I took some similiar guys and put them into slots for top minutes.

Center.. 20... 3.5 stars..... 68 ovr
1yr 3.5 stars..... 72 ovr 13g 23 a -24
2yr 3.5 stars..... 73 ovr 22g 29 a -7
3yr 3.5 stars..... 77 ovr 2g 13 a +2 Sent to NHL

LW....... 22.... 3.5 stars.... 62 ovr
1yr 3.5 stars... 64 ovr 15 g 26 a +12
2yr 3.5 stars... 69 ovr 11 g 18a -7
3yr 3.5 stars... 83 ovr 19g 40a -6

RW...... 20.... 4 stars...... 61 ovr
1yr 4 stars..... 63 ovr 12g 17 a -6
2yr 4 stars..... 65 ovr 12g 18 a -6
3yr 4 stars.... 67 ovr 10g 19a -18

D......... 18.... 4 stars....... 62 ovr
1yr 4 stars...... 66 ovr 8g 3a -25
2yr 4 stars...... 69 ovr 8g 4a +10
3yr 4 stars...... 72 ovr 10g 5a -15

D......... 21.... 2.5 stars.... 72 ovr
1yr 2.5 stars.... 72 ovr 10g 17a +3
2yr 2.5 stars.... 72 ovr 8g 10a -23
3yr 2.5 stars.... 72 ovr 3g 10a -10

The player drafted #1 overall has progressed a total of 3 ovr in three years getting top minutes in the NHL. In real terms, he'd be considered a bust by NHL standards. There's 3 players who've progressed at nice rates. 2 in the NHL and 2 in the AHL, one who took a huge leap from 69 to 83. He's 1 of 2 players who's playing where the game says he should play (minor 1st line).. the other is a dman who's progressed 10 ovr in 3 years. After 3 years of watching Im starting to come to the conclusion there's no speeding up the process of development which we've had in prior years. I have two season left to get a better idea. The dman who hit an 85 is older. I didnt sign him until he was 22 which once again shows dmen really jumping at about 25 years old. The last guy listed hasnt moved from 72 in 3 years getting top minutes.