NFL: NFC playoff picture

[Quid Pro Clowe]

49ers also hold head to head tiebreakers with Philly, Atlanta and Minnesota.

 

[GKJ]

Like a month ago, everyone was firing Kyle Shanahan. Hard time seeing the 49ers left out if the playoffs.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Challenge for @misterchainsaw

Explain to me why the Cowboys have these 2 scenarios to clinch a playoff spot: Playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 16 of 2021 NFL season

Dallas clinches playoff berth with:

1. NO loss or tie OR
2. SF loss OR
3. TB win or tie

How do the 49ers who are 6th and did not play Dallas, impact Dallas clinching a playoff spot? I am guessing the TB part may have to do with avoiding some sort of 10-7 tie in which Tampa would prevail over Dallas due to the head-to-head win.

Edit: I think I found the only way Dallas missing the playoffs can happen and why TB and SF are involved in that: ESPN.com's 2021 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

 

[adsfan]

Green Bay is currently in the driver's seat with a 11-3 record and holding the tie breakers over two other NFC teams with 10-4 records. They have not played 10-4 Dallas and will not during the regular season.

The Packers have clinched their division. They have home games against Cleveland and Minnesota and a road game at Detroit on January 9th.

David Bakhtiari is practicing but not yet playing. Green Bay did have 3 Pro Bowlers, Aaron Rodgers, Devante Adams and Kenny Clark. The big surprise was De'Vondre Campbell. The inside LB has 125 tackles so far. Us Packer fans expected him to be named as a Pro Bowler; he isn't even an alternate! Campbell was the NFC Defensive Player of the Month for October. I guess the voters have a short memory.

That may fire up the team to show up the voters via the playoffs as being ignorant of what is happening in the NFC.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Challenge for @misterchainsaw

Explain to me why the Cowboys have these 2 scenarios to clinch a playoff spot: Playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 16 of 2021 NFL season



How do the 49ers who are 6th and did not play Dallas, impact Dallas clinching a playoff spot? I am guessing the TB part may have to do with avoiding some sort of 10-7 tie in which Tampa would prevail over Dallas due to the head-to-head win.

Edit: I think I found the only way Dallas missing the playoffs can happen and why TB and SF are involved in that: ESPN.com's 2021 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

Yeah you pretty much got it. For Dallas to miss, a number of things have to happen. One is that Philadelphia has to pass Dallas, and that actually limits the results of other games in quite a significant way, as Dallas is only a couple results away from clinching strength of victory over Philly. For example, Minnesota can't be in the playoff picture at 10-7 because those Vikings wins would clinch the division for Dallas. Second, as you mentioned, New Orleans has to finish ahead of Tampa Bay, because the Saints can't catch the Cowboys at 10-7, while Tampa's head to head win means that in a 2-way tiebreaker Tampa would finish ahead of Dallas. That two-way tiebreaker stipulation is why San Francisco has to win - one loss puts them at 10-7 as well, and Dallas prevails in a tiebreaker with SF and TB because Tampa did not also beat San Francisco this year. More than one loss, obviously, knocks San Francisco to a point where they can't even match Dallas's record. So one San Francisco loss guarantees they finish below Dallas in the standings, and the only way Dallas misses is if San Fran is one of the teams above them.

 

[JimmyApples]

..and Dallas is officially in!

 

[HisIceness]

For a moment there it looked like they were going to repeat last years collapse but at least this time they've got a spot locked up if they do.

 

[Halladay]

The Eagles can clinch a spot next week with a win a Niners win against Houston, if the Saints lose tonight or next week and if the Vikings lose at Lambeau . All these things seem to be somewhat realistic. Though at Washington will be a tough game.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

..and Dallas is officially in!

As they should be. They're as good as any team in the league right now.

 

[Dr Salt]

As they should be. They're as good as any team in the league right now.

If Dak is hot they will be a nightmare for any matchup

 

[TheGreenTBer]

If Dak is hot they will be a nightmare for any matchup

Agreed.

If you look at the team objectively you see a team with the ability to beat anyone. Objective Cowboys fans know that the regular season doesn't prove dick all, but there's a lot to like so far. They could go flat and lose in the 1st round of the playoffs, but they also could get hot and win the whole thing.

 

[GKJ]

If Dallas' defense keeps getting turnovers at the rate they are, they are contenders. That's it, doesn't matter how many playoff wins they've had in 25 years, doesn't really matter if Dak isn't hot, as long as they don't turn the ball over themselves and are adequately productive. they have multiple ways to beat you on offense. The Saints won a Super Bowl and went into that post-season with 2 playoff wins ever and that covered more than 40 years.

 

[misterchainsaw]

One division title left up for grabs, and the Rams could clinch with a win over Baltimore and an Arizona loss to Dallas. In fact, the 7 playoff teams could be set heading into week 18 with just 4 results: SF over HOU, PHI over WSH, GB over MIN, and CAR over NO. With only Philly winning from the middle tier last week a lot of teams could have staved off their execution, but none of the "barely alive" tier managed to win either, so goodbye Carolina, Seattle, and the Giants (the Giants were actually eliminated by other results as well as their loss).

AFTER WEEK 16: (a-eliminated from #1 seed contention, b-eliminated from division contention, x-clinched playoff spot, y-clinched division)
1. y-Green Bay - 12-3
2. y-Dallas - 11-4 (Holds Conference record tiebreaker over Tampa Bay and the LA Rams)
3. x-LA Rams - 11-4 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over Tampa Bay)
4. y-Tampa Bay - 11-4 (Holds Division Record tiebreaker over LA Rams)
5. x-Arizona - 10-5
6. b-San Francisco - 8-7 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over Philadelphia)
7. b-Philadelphia - 8-7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. b-Minnesota - 7-8 (Owns conference record tiebreaker over Atlanta)
9. b-Atlanta - 7-8 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over New Orleans)
10. b-New Orleans - 7-8
11. b-Washington - 6-9

ELIMINATED: (12) Carolina, (13) Chicago, (14)Seattle, (15)NY Giants, (16)Detroit

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- The LA Rams control their own destiny for the NFC West
- San Francisco controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Philadelphia controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.

POTENTIAL CHANGES OF CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 17:
- Green Bay will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss and a DAL win.
- Dallas will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win, GB loss, and TB loss.
- The LA Rams will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a loss and an ARI win.
- Arizona will gain control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a win and a LA Ram loss.
- San Francisco will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card with a loss, PHI win, and NO win.
- Philadelphia will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card with a loss combined with either a NO win or a MIN win.
- Minnesota will gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win, PHI loss, and NO loss.
- New Orleans will gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win, SF loss and either (1)Clinching SoV over SF, or (2)a MIN or PHI loss

New Orleans clinches SoV over SF with four of the following results (games marked with an * count as two games): *NE over JAX, SEA over DET, TB over NYJ, NYG over CHI, *BAL over LAR, KC over CIN.

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 17:
- Washington is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or an ATL, NO, and SF win.
- New Orleans is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, SF win, and a PHI win.
- Atlanta is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or a PHI and SF win.
- Minnesota is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss and either an ATL or PHI win.

CLINCHING SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 17:
- Green Bay clinches the first round bye with a win and a DAL loss.
- The LA Rams clinch the NFC West with a win and an ARI loss.
- San Francisco clinches a wild card spot with a win and a NO loss.
- Philadelphia clinches a wild card spot with a win, MIN loss, and either a NO loss or a SF win.

 

[Dr Salt]

One division title left up for grabs, and the Rams could clinch with a win over Baltimore and an Arizona loss to Dallas. In fact, the 7 playoff teams could be set heading into week 18 with just 4 results: SF over HOU, PHI over WSH, GB over MIN, and CAR over NO. With only Philly winning from the middle tier last week a lot of teams could have staved off their execution, but none of the "barely alive" tier managed to win either, so goodbye Carolina, Seattle, and the Giants (the Giants were actually eliminated by other results as well as their loss).

AFTER WEEK 16: (a-eliminated from #1 seed contention, b-eliminated from division contention, x-clinched playoff spot, y-clinched division)
1. y-Green Bay - 12-3
2. y-Dallas - 11-4 (Holds Conference record tiebreaker over Tampa Bay and the LA Rams)
3. x-LA Rams - 11-4 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over Tampa Bay)
4. y-Tampa Bay - 11-4 (Holds Division Record tiebreaker over LA Rams)
5. x-Arizona - 10-5
6. b-San Francisco - 8-7 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over Philadelphia)
7. b-Philadelphia - 8-7
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8. b-Minnesota - 7-8 (Owns conference record tiebreaker over Atlanta)
9. b-Atlanta - 7-8 (Holds H2H tiebreaker over New Orleans)
10. b-New Orleans - 7-8
11. b-Washington - 6-9

ELIMINATED: (12) Carolina, (13) Chicago, (14)Seattle, (15)NY Giants, (16)Detroit

CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- The LA Rams control their own destiny for the NFC West
- San Francisco controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
- Philadelphia controls their own destiny for a wild card spot.

POTENTIAL CHANGES OF CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 17:
- Green Bay will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss and a DAL win.
- Dallas will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win, GB loss, and TB loss.
- The LA Rams will lose control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a loss and an ARI win.
- Arizona will gain control of their own destiny for the NFC West with a win and a LA Ram loss.
- San Francisco will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card with a loss, PHI win, and NO win.
- Philadelphia will lose control of their own destiny for the wild card with a loss combined with either a NO win or a MIN win.
- Minnesota will gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win, PHI loss, and NO loss.
- New Orleans will gain control of their own destiny for the wild card with a win, SF loss, and PHI loss.

ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 17:
- Washington is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or an ATL, NO, and SF win.
- New Orleans is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, SF win, and a PHI win.
- Atlanta is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or a PHI and SF win.
- Minnesota is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss and either an ATL or PHI win.

CLINCHING SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 17:
- Green Bay clinches the first round bye with a win and a DAL loss.
- The LA Rams clinch the NFC West with a win and an ARI loss.
- San Francisco clinches a wild card spot with a win and a NO loss.
- Philadelphia clinches a wild card spot with a win, MIN loss, and either a NO loss or a SF win.

Dallas controls their destiny for the bye regardless of the Tampa result as long as Green Bay is there tied with them for a three-way tiebreaker if they win and Green Bay loses I believe.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Dallas controls their destiny for the bye regardless of the Tampa result as long as Green Bay is there tied with them for a three-way tiebreaker if they win and Green Bay loses I believe.

If Green Bay loses again in week 18 and the Rams lose in week 18 the tiebreaker becomes just Dallas and Tampa Bay if both win out, which Tampa wins, so Dallas does not control their own destiny.

They have to win the #1 seed in 100% of the scenarios that they win out to control their own destiny for it, and the above scenario denies that.

 

[JimmyApples]

If Green Bay loses again in week 18 and the Rams lose in week 18 the tiebreaker becomes just Dallas and Tampa Bay if both win out, which Tampa wins, so Dallas does not control their own destiny.

They have to win the #1 seed in 100% of the scenarios that they win out to control their own destiny for it, and the above scenario denies that.

I don’t think Green Bay loses, but I think your scenario probably has a 0.1% chance of happening. Green Bay ain’t losing twice AND the Rams lose (although they do play SF)

 

[misterchainsaw]

Not going to do a full update, since eventually someone's gonna post one of those fancy grids with all the potential results and resultant seedings, but a recap team by team:

Green Bay - Clinched #1 seed and first round bye.

LA Rams - Clinches division with win or ARI loss. #2 seed with win or a loss, ARI loss, DAL loss, and TB loss. #3 seed with loss, ARI loss, and one of a DAL or TB win. #4 seed with loss, ARI loss, DAL win, and TB win. #5 seed with loss and ARI win.

Tampa Bay - Division clinched. #2 seed with win and LAR loss. Drops to #4 with loss, LAR loss, ARI loss, and DAL win. #3 in all other scenarios.

Dallas - Division clinched. #4 seed with a loss, LAR win or an ARI win. #3 seed with a win, LAR loss, ARI loss and TB win. #2 seed with a win, LAR loss, ARI loss, and TB loss.

Arizona - Wins division with a win and LAR loss. #2 with division title + TB loss. #3 with division title + TB win. #5 with LAR win or ARI loss.

San Francisco - #6 with a win or a PHI and NO loss. #7 with a loss, NO loss, and PHI win. OUT with a loss and NO win.

Philadelphia - #6 with either a win and a SF loss OR a loss, SF loss, and NO win. #7 with either (1)a win and a SF win, (2)a loss and a NO loss, or (3)a loss and a SF win

New Orleans - #7 with a win and a SF loss. OUT otherwise.

 

[StreetHawk]

Basically 1 division title on the line. And 1 WC spot to decide. Everything is seeding.

teams want the 2 seed as it would guarantee a second home playoff game. #3 might still get one if 2 seed falls in WC round.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Your official playoff clinching scenarios: NFL Week 18 playoff clinching scenarios: Full AFC, NFC breakdown

NFC
Clinched: Green Bay Packers – NFC North + No. 1 seed, Dallas Cowboys – NFC East, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – NFC South, Arizona Cardinals – playoff berth, Los Angeles Rams – playoff berth, Philadelphia Eagles -– playoff berth

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) [vs. Seattle Seahawks (6-10), Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET]
Cardinals clinch NFC West division title with:
1. Cardinals win + Rams loss

Los Angeles Rams (12-4) [vs. San Francisco (9-7), Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET]
Rams clinch NFC West division title with:
1. Rams win or tie OR
2. Cardinals loss or tie

New Orleans Saints (8-8) [at Atlanta Falcons (7-9), Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX]
Saints clinch playoff berth with:
1. Saints win + 49ers loss

San Francisco 49ers (9-7) [at Los Angeles Rams (12-4), Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET]
49ers clinch playoff berth with:
1. 49ers win or tie OR
2. Saints loss or tie

 

[John Price]