Fun fact. If SF, MIN, and PHI win out, and the Rams win their only game that's not against that trio, the 7th seed will come down to strength of victory between Minnesota and Philadelphia. This is why neither Minnesota nor Philadelphia control their own destiny for the last playoff spot. Minnesota currently leads that SoV race .469 - .392 with only the games locked in required to get to that specific tiebreaker in the 7th-8th slot locked in. But the two teams wins are so diverse from each other that Minnesota does NOT have SoV clinched in this case.
AFTER WEEK 15: (a-eliminated from #1 seed contention, b-eliminated from division contention, x-clinched playoff spot, y-clinched division)
1. y-Green Bay - 11-3
2. Dallas - 10-4 (Holds Conference record tiebreaker over Tampa Bay and Arizona)
3. Tampa Bay - 10-4 (Holds Strength of victory tiebreaker over Arizona)
4. Arizona - 10-4 (Holds Division Record tiebreaker over LA Rams)
5. LA Rams - 10-4
6. a-San Francisco - 8-6
7. b-Minnesota - 7-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over New Orleans, Holds common games tiebreaker over Philadelphia)
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8. a-Philadelphia - 7-7 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over New Orleans)
9. a-New Orleans - 7-7
10. b-Washington - 6-8 (Owns H2H and conference record tiebreakers over Atlanta)
11. b-Atlanta - 6-8
12. b-Carolina - 5-9 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Seattle)
13. b-Seattle - 5-9
14. b-New York Giants - 4-9 (Holds conference record tiebreaker over Chicago)
ELIMINATED: (15)Chicago, (16)Detroit
CONTROL OF DESTINY:
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for the first round bye.
- Green Bay controls their own destiny for the NFC North.
- Tampa Bay controls their own destiny for the NFC South
- Dallas controls their own destiny for the NFC East
- The LA Rams control their own destiny for a wild card spot
- San Francisco controls their own destiny for a wild card spot
POTENTIAL CHANGES OF CONTROL OF DESTINY IN WEEK 15:
- Green Bay will lose control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a loss and a DAL win.
- Dallas will gain control of their own destiny for the first round bye with a win, GB loss, and TB loss.
- Arizona will lose control of their own destiny in the NFC West with a loss and an LAR win.
- The LA Rams will gain control of their own destiny in the NFC West with a win and an ARI loss.
- San Francisco will lose control of their own destiny for a wild card with a loss and either (1)an ARI loss, MIN win, and PHI win, or (2)a NO win, combined with either a PHI or MIN win.
- Minnesota will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win and either (1)a PHI loss or (2)clinching SoV over PHI in a 10-7 tiebreaker AND DAL win or DAL clinching SoV over PHI at 10-7 (see below)
- Philadelphia will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win, MIN loss and either a NO loss or a TB win
- New Orleans will gain control of their own destiny for a wild card with a win, and 2 out of 3 of the following: MIN loss, SF loss, PHI loss.
Minnesota clinches SoV over PHI at 10-7 if 3 of the following results happen: CHI over SEA, LAC over HOU, GB over CLE (this counts twice), PIT over KC, DAL over WSH, LV over DEN, JAX over NYJ, or DET over ATL,
ELIMINATION SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 16:
- The NY Giants are eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, ATL win, WSH win, NO win, or a MIN win
- Carolina is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or a SF win combined with either a MIN or PHI win
- Seattle is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, or either (1)a MIN and SF win, (2)a PHI and MIN win, or (3)a PHI and SF win
- Atlanta is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss and either a MIN or PHI win
- Philadelphia is eliminated from NFC East contention with a loss, DAL win, or DAL clinching SoV in a 10-7 tiebreaker against them (see clinching section)
- New Orleans is eliminated from NFC South contention with a loss or a TB win.
- San Francisco is eliminated from NFC West contention with a loss or ARI win.
- The LA Rams are eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss, and either (1)a ARI win, and DAL win, (2)a GB win and a TB loss, or (3)a GB win and GB clinching SoV over LAR at 12-5
- Arizona is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss, GB win, and TB loss.
- Tampa Bay is eliminated from first round bye contention with a loss and a GB win.
Green Bay clinches SoV over Los Angeles at 12-5 with either (1)CHI over SEA OR (2)two of the following results: PIT over KC, CIN over BAL, WSH over DAL, ARI over IND, PHI over NYG, LAC over HOU, or NYJ over JAX
CLINCHING SCENARIOS FOR WEEK 16:
- Dallas clinches the NFC East with a win, PHI loss, or by clinching SoV over PHI at 10-7 (see below)
- Tampa Bay clinches the NFC South with a win or a NO loss
- Dallas clinches a wild card spot with a SF loss, NO loss, or a CAR loss
- Tampa Bay clinches a wild card spot with (1)a MIN loss combined with Dallas clinching SoV over PHI at 10-7
- Arizona clinches a playoff spot with a win or any two of the following 4 results: (1)SF loss, (2)MIN loss, (3)PHI loss, (4)NO loss
- The LA Rams clinch a playoff spot with either a win or both a NO loss and PHI loss.
Dallas clinches SoV over Philadelphia at the 10-7 tiebreaker with 2 of the following 6 results: LAC over HOU, NE over BUF, MIN over LAR, ATL over DET, LV over DEN, JAX over NYJ.