Next Season (COVID-19 Discussion Thread as it relates to the OHL) [Part 3]

[Otto]

Maybe I am just a skeptic, but why are we only hearing about spread on adult teams when there are all these youth teams playing? I know the youth teams aren't going to the frat house for beers after practice...

Has anyone confirmed the spread is in fact happening on the ice?

 

[nelli27]

Sweden, which refused lockdown during COVID first wave, imposes restrictions as cases soar

 

[MatthewsMoustache]

Maybe I am just a skeptic, but why are we only hearing about spread on adult teams when there are all these youth teams playing? I know the youth teams aren't going to the frat house for beers after practice...

Has anyone confirmed the spread is in fact happening on the ice?

I assume it’s more difficult to spread on the ice than it would be in say, the dressing room. Players wearing in some spots layers of equipment stopping them from making actual contact with one another.

But, as we’ve seen, it only takes 1 to have it spread through a team like wildfire.

 

[MatthewsMoustache]

Most of the city’s rinks in London have been open for 2-3 weeks with no reported cases. Starting today, 1 parent per player will be allowed to come in for the entirety of their kids ice time. Still 15 minutes before/15 minutes after for coming in and out.

Does anyone know what it’s like in their city, and if so how has it gone so far?

 

[Otto]

 

[OHL4Life]

Most of the city’s rinks in London have been open for 2-3 weeks with no reported cases. Starting today, 1 parent per player will be allowed to come in for the entirety of their kids ice time. Still 15 minutes before/15 minutes after for coming in and out.

Does anyone know what it’s like in their city, and if so how has it gone so far?

youth hockey has been going on since june, ive only heard of 1 potential case so far, and im not sure if they ever proved it was anything more then an outlier. hard to say that hockey in ontario has really spread this at all, 100s or maybe 1000s of kids playing and 1 case? thats awesome.

theres been a few in the US, but even if we project that out with a frequency vs case bases, im not sure its happening. we can always find one or two instances of outbreaks, but in a statistical model, those would be outliers that most stats people throw out.

 

[BadgerBruce]

youth hockey has been going on since june, ive only heard of 1 potential case so far, and im not sure if they ever proved it was anything more then an outlier. hard to say that hockey in ontario has really spread this at all, 100s or maybe 1000s of kids playing and 1 case? thats awesome.

theres been a few in the US, but even if we project that out with a frequency vs case bases, im not sure its happening. we can always find one or two instances of outbreaks, but in a statistical model, those would be outliers that most stats people throw out.

Someone will likely try to rip me a new one for saying this (note: my wife has already ripped me a new one today, so please go easy), but my strong feeling from talking to a lot of minor hockey people is that the number of Covid-19 cases amongst the kids is so low because minor hockey associations and most facility operators are following the protocols to the absolute letter. The biggest spreader is, of course, droplets, and nearly all of the precautions put in place greatly reduce the risk of transmission occurring.

 

[OHL4Life]

Someone will likely try to rip me a new one for saying this (note: my wife has already ripped me a new one today, so please go easy), but my strong feeling from talking to a lot of minor hockey people is that the number of Covid-19 cases amongst the kids is so low because minor hockey associations and most facility operators are following the protocols to the absolute letter. The biggest spreader is, of course, droplets, and nearly all of the precautions put in place greatly reduce the risk of transmission occurring.

i dont get why anyone would rip you a new one (i mean i think some will just because thats what they do on a message baord) but the facts play that out. theres probably been 1000s of hockey games/training in candida and so far we may have one known issue? thats outstanding.

 

[OMG67]

Sweden, which refused lockdown during COVID first wave, imposes restrictions as cases soar

This is a pretty inaccurate article title.

From the article:
The new measures, described by Bitte Brastad, the chief legal officer at Sweden's public health agency, as "something in between regulations and recommendations," do not come with fines for any violations.
Speaking to Newsweek, Marcus Carlsson, a mathematician and senior lecturer at Lund University who has been closely following the outbreak, said: "The authorities have certainly made a silent shift towards a strategy more in line with the rest of Europe."
But Carlsson noted the latest new measures have not been "implemented in reality anywhere in Sweden, and even doctors in hospitals still walk around without masks (leaving vulnerable people too afraid to seek health care).

 

[OMG67]

Someone will likely try to rip me a new one for saying this (note: my wife has already ripped me a new one today, so please go easy), but my strong feeling from talking to a lot of minor hockey people is that the number of Covid-19 cases amongst the kids is so low because minor hockey associations and most facility operators are following the protocols to the absolute letter. The biggest spreader is, of course, droplets, and nearly all of the precautions put in place greatly reduce the risk of transmission occurring.

Approx 1 in 250 people in Ontario have tested positive. We need to keep perspective on how absolutely rare that is.

Also, we need to consider that for the most part only people with symptoms are getting tested.

Younger people have proven to be less likely to contract the virus. Therefore, it is less likely they show symptoms.

What tends to happen is people contract the virus and have at worse very mild symptoms to the point they don’t think much about it. There is that one that does get tested and shows they have the virus and then their whole team gets tested and a bunch of them have it.

IN MY OPINION, (just to be clear, this is my opinion), I think if you were to randomly show up at a hockey tournament with 70 teams and simply tested everyone, you’d find teams all with the Virus in their system in some manner. Just no symptoms worthy of going to get tested on their own.

We have four layers of immunology protection that stops the CoronaVirus from becoming full blown Covid-19.

1> Mucosal Membranes protect surfaces that come in contact with external pathogens.
2> B-Cells (B Lymphocytes). This is the Antibody Response of White Blood Cells
3> T-Cells. Another Lymphocyte developed in the Thymus Gland.
4> Memory B-Cells. Reside in the Bone Marrow and proliferate when an immune response is required.

So, people can very well have the Virus and not know it because at the cellular level it is being fought off by our Immune System. These are called Asymptomatic people.

As has been mentioned previously many times by many people, we don’t know how many people have actually had the virus. We quite simply cannot test everyone.

We do know from many studies on Coronaviruses, that 40-60% of the population will have a immunity response that will fight off the Virus before it shows symptoms...or at least Symptoms that will lead to someone going for a Test.

Where this all comes together is when a person tests positive they will be asked who they came into contact with and where they have been. Clearly, when a player comes into contact with the rest of their teammates, all of those teammates are likely to go for a test. Most, if not all, will test positive without showing any symptoms.

 

[Otto]

Approx 1 in 250 people in Ontario have tested positive. We need to keep perspective on how absolutely rare that is.

1.4% not 0.4%

https://www.ontario.ca/page/how-ontario-is-responding-covid-19

In comparison 1 in 300 people have Lynch Syndrome and it's not considered rare. ( just as a comparison )

 

[Otto]

World Juniors in a bubble

 

[windsor7]

World Juniors in a bubble

Hopefully in a bubble....

 

[OMG67]

1.4% not 0.4%

https://www.ontario.ca/page/how-ontario-is-responding-covid-19

In comparison 1 in 300 people have Lynch Syndrome and it's not considered rare. ( just as a comparison )

Population of Ontario = 14,560,000
Confirmed Cases = 65,000

0.4% or 1 in 250

Comparing to the common cold or flu, 1 in 250 is rare. With 20 kids on a hockey team, the odds of one kid having it is 1 team in 12. Then you have to factor in the odds of that kid having symptoms and have been tested. The numbers start getting long very quick.

This is the reason why we see one team with 18 kids testing positive and entire leagues with no outbreaks. It doesn’t mean there are no outbreaks in the other leagues. It means they haven’t identified cases.

I find it very hard to believe that one kid can spread it to EVERY kid on a team and then other leagues etc with nothing. If it spreads so easily, we’d see tremendous infection rates.

The numbers we are seeing in sports team outbreaks are similar to what we would see with the common cold. Yet, from positive test numbers we see, it isn’t even on the same page.

I firmly believe there are a ton of asymptomatic people, especially
kids who don’t seem to get the same negative reactions, walking around oblivious.

 

[AttackSound]

I hope you are correct. My understanding from the information I read was the league wanted to eliminate overnight trips, not reduce them. I questioned that informations as not being very viable, especially in Ottawa.

If this is correct, it does seem the most likely. The only other caveat I would suggest is a realignment of divisions-conferences depending on where the US based teams play. As I suggested, places like Brampton, Cornwall and Belleville Meade the most sense. This would have a significant impact on geography and thus would require a realignment. Obviously you could not have Cornwall and Windsor in the same division if Saginaw were to relocate there as an example.

The eastern conference would be slightly affected with teams like Ottawa and Hamilton and St. Catherine's unfortunately I can't see out of conference matchups happening the way they have in the past. But if the season is a go expect longer stops on road trips instead of 3 stops don't be surprised to see 4 stops happen instead that span a week at a time.

Unfortunately with no official word from the league the fans will be left in the dark. Rumours have been floating that January 8th through to the 11th maybe the dates the league has set there eyes on but no confirmed official announcement has been made and that the league has meetings set for some point in the coming weeks on the U. S. teams and that temporary relocation will be on the table for those clubs. Former OHL sites could be also on the table like Cornwall and Brampton could be we will see what happens when and if we hear any announcement from the league.

 

[MatthewsMoustache]

 

[rangersblues]

Unfortunately with no official word from the league the fans will be left in the dark. Rumours have been floating that January 8th through to the 11th maybe the dates the league has set there eyes on but no confirmed official announcement has been made and that the league has meetings set for some point in the coming weeks on the U. S. teams and that temporary relocation will be on the table for those clubs. Former OHL sites could be also on the table like Cornwall and Brampton could be we will see what happens when and if we hear any announcement from the league.

I'm not sure what official response you're looking for.

The league should have begun at the end of September. It didn't and they picked a potential startup date for early December. They haven't yet figured out how to navigate any starting date in this evolving situation. I'm not sure what you want them to say or what they could say. Everything is up in the air.

Junior hockey is a business, but is not an essential service.

 

[OHL4Life]

that makes sense on both parts. i think jeff marek said the same thing on the radio the other day, the non contact thing was more of a negotiation tactic vs a legit requirement. the agreement with the government should allow them to start up with no fans and adjust as permitted

 

[windsor7]

Branch wont go without his pockets full???

 

[windsor7]

I'm not sure what official response you're looking for.

The league should have begun at the end of September. It didn't and they picked a potential startup date for early December. They haven't yet figured out how to navigate any starting date in this evolving situation. I'm not sure what you want them to say or what they could say. Everything is up in the air.

Junior hockey is a business, but is not an essential service.

True.
Not an essential service.

 

[Buttsy]

It goes somewhat I would think without saying but a huge part of this “lack of transparency” comes from the fact these leagues have no real clue what this thing will look like in December or January. Why release a Northern vs Southern (Ontario vs USA) schedule as an example and then get to a point where inter border play is possible and safe? I don’t agree with the folks that claim (referenced in the quote above) there is a lack of transparency. There being cautious and keeping all possibilities open until they have to issue a return to play plan or a shut it down plan.

 

[ohloutsider]

IMHO the league has not set a "fixed" start date, schedule, divisions, rules on contact etc. But I'm 100% confident that there will be OHL hockey this year. In what form that takes who knows but the league cannot/will not allow the year to be lost. They have to find a way to make it work somehow before they lose a grip on players and fans. Most teams in this league operate close to red numbers anyway so if they can fire up some sort of season and hold back the major bleeding they will all be onboard. Teams really can't afford to drop out of the spotlight so to speak. They need a season to keep their franchises in a viable situation.

There will be a season. It may be 30 games and start in March with 4 on 4 hockey but it will happen.

 

[Otto]

Population of Ontario = 14,560,000
Confirmed Cases = 65,000

0.4% or 1 in 250

Comparing to the common cold or flu, 1 in 250 is rare. With 20 kids on a hockey team, the odds of one kid having it is 1 team in 12. Then you have to factor in the odds of that kid having symptoms and have been tested. The numbers start getting long very quick.

This is the reason why we see one team with 18 kids testing positive and entire leagues with no outbreaks. It doesn’t mean there are no outbreaks in the other leagues. It means they haven’t identified cases.

I find it very hard to believe that one kid can spread it to EVERY kid on a team and then other leagues etc with nothing. If it spreads so easily, we’d see tremendous infection rates.

The numbers we are seeing in sports team outbreaks are similar to what we would see with the common cold. Yet, from positive test numbers we see, it isn’t even on the same page.

I firmly believe there are a ton of asymptomatic people, especially
kids who don’t seem to get the same negative reactions, walking around oblivious.

You are basing it off of total population.. I'm basing it on % of tests. .. you can't base it on the entire population because as you said we don't know how many people have it but haven't been tested

 

[imarriedawitch]

Protecting the vulnerable?

Every resident of Kansas nursing home infected with COVID-19

The Norton County Health Department confirmed on Monday that all 62 residents of the Andbe Home, a privately owned facility, tested positive for COVID-19. Of the 62 individuals, 10 have died, one is hospitalized and the others are being cared for at the facility.

The department also confirmed that "some" staff members at the nursing home in Norton have tested positive for the virus and others are being tested.

"Norton County Health Department has been working with the Andbe Home, Norton County Hospital and [the Kansas Department of Health and Environment] regarding this outbreak. Steps are being taken to prevent any further outbreak including quarantining residents in their rooms and now allowing outside visitors into the facility," department officials said in a Monday statement, adding that family members of the residents have been notified of the outbreak.

 

[BadgerBruce]

Protecting the vulnerable?

Every resident of Kansas nursing home infected with COVID-19

The Norton County Health Department confirmed on Monday that all 62 residents of the Andbe Home, a privately owned facility, tested positive for COVID-19. Of the 62 individuals, 10 have died, one is hospitalized and the others are being cared for at the facility.

The department also confirmed that "some" staff members at the nursing home in Norton have tested positive for the virus and others are being tested.

"Norton County Health Department has been working with the Andbe Home, Norton County Hospital and [the Kansas Department of Health and Environment] regarding this outbreak. Steps are being taken to prevent any further outbreak including quarantining residents in their rooms and now allowing outside visitors into the facility," department officials said in a Monday statement, adding that family members of the residents have been notified of the outbreak.

I’ll search for the link and try to post it, but apparently in the State of Wisconsin the operators of retirement and long term care facilities for the elderly are working together to lobby the state government to eliminate existing requirements that staff be credentialed, members of a professional regulatory body, and submit a “clean” vulnerable sector criminal record check. In other words, qualified staff are running for their lives and the operators would like to replace them with virtually any warm bodies.