The reality is pretty simple.
Unless the Government’s of Canada and the United States decide to take a different approach and seek a faster herd immunity strategy, there will be no sports with fans of any sort of consequence until at least next summer.
So few people as a percentage of the population have contracted the virus that it is impossible to put a stranglehold on it no matter how stringent the mitigating processes are because if those mitigating processes work, there is pressure to loosen the reigns which will continually cause a yo-yo effect of positive cases.
This is the reality. Anyone that thinks otherwise is naive.
For example, the Provincial Government has identified three hot spots and has rolled back to Stage 2 for those spots for 28 days. Unless there is legal action to force the Government to do otherwise, or there is some change of heart, those restrictions will carry through the entire winter. We will not see numbers go back down into the 100’s until the spring, similar to last year.
Far too few people have contracted the virus. The current approach is to wait for a vaccine. Without a vaccine or a change in approach to reach herd immunity naturally, this yo-yo peak and valley graph will continue through the next 4-5 years because we are trickling out the infections over a long period of time. 0.4% of the Ontario Population has tested positive. That translates to 1 in every 250 people.
With so few people having contracted the virus, this cycle will continue indeterminately for many years provided the government only uses the metric of # of positive cases and doesn’t look at hospitalizations and deaths, which right now they are not.
I know all of this is speculation with respect to whether the OHL will play etc. That is what this forum is for. However, there is zero chance the OHL will play with meaningful fans this season. Absolute ZERO. The question now is whether the league feels there is a meaningful way to conduct a season of some kind. Without a more strict bubble, I see no way of doing that considering the current situation as well as how this situation forecasts forward.
If the players are doing remote learning with tutors, there is no significant reason why they should not bubble other than projected costs. Playing games in their home cities with billets etc isn’t viable. There is too much risk of transmission. On top of that, without a more controlled bubble, the silly on ice restrictions make the season virtually meaningless. They would simply be scrimmage games. They may as well just practice as a team and play 10 on 10.