Post-Game Talk: New York Islanders at New York Rangers - October 19, 2017

[chosen]

You have to play the odds. We have a much better chance of finding players like that picking higher in the draft. That's not really debatable. You simply have to look at the best players in the league right now and see where they were picked.

I would argue that from a statistical standpoint that your formula is a losing one. While you might get lucky and land a perfect combination of the best picks in the best years, it's very unlikely. For every Chicago, there are lots of teams that consistently pick high and stink year-after-year.

 

[JT Kreider]

For every Chicago, there are lots of teams that consistently pick high and stink year-after-year.

Such as?

 

[chosen]

Forget 1994. The NHL was so much different then. Think of every team that has won the Cup since the Penguins first in 2009.

They all have one thing in common.

The highest of the high end talent. All drafted at the top.

(Except for Boston but they had a superhero in net, and they never would be able to bully their way to a Cup in today's NHL. And even then they still had the Cup winning formula: a franchise center, a top line caliber center behind him, a top 5 defensemen, and multiple 30 goal/60 point wingers. We are 0/5 in the formula. And two budding superstars in the making in Marchand and Seguin.)

Unless I read it wrong, no team with the 1st pick since 2009 has come close to winning a Cup..

 

[JT Kreider]

Unless I read it wrong, no team with the 1st pick since 2009 has come close to winning a Cup..

If you think about it, it is pretty likely that no team that has drafted in the top 15 (maybe even as low as 20) since 2009 has won a Cup, considering only 4 teams have won it. Outside of Boston with Seguin 2nd overall in 2010.

 

[CasusBelli]

Such as?

Florida (before Ekblad, JH and Barkov)

 

[LeetchisGod]

I would argue that from a statistical standpoint that your formula is a losing one. While you might get lucky and land a perfect combination of the best picks in the best years, it's very unlikely. For every Chicago, there are lots of teams that consistently pick high and stink year-after-year.

I would argue that our strategy of going for it every year is a losing one. Pittsburgh and Chicago have 6 cups combined. We have none.

 

[aufheben]

I highly doubt the fans of the Penguins think that way.

While I do agree that you do whatever you can to position yourself for a shot at a championship, you also have to recognize when your current group just doesnt have what it takes.

And in today's NHL, the only way to position yourself for championship contention is to have the highest of the high end of talent. For the most part, those players are only available at the top of the draft.

You don't even have to look outside the Rangers to see that this is not true.

 

[JT Kreider]

Florida (before Ekblad, JH and Barkov)

Before those 3? Gudbranson was the only top 5 pick they had prior to those 3. Since Horton in 2003.

 

[JT Kreider]

You don't even have to look outside the Rangers to see that this is not true.

Where do I look then?

 

[LeetchisGod]

Before those 3? Gudbranson was the only top 5 pick they had prior to those 3. Since Horton in 2003.

They also chose him over Johansen. Not a good move.

 

[mike14]

Such as?

ATL/WPG
FLA
CAR
CBJ
COL
EDM
NYI
PHX
TBL
TOR

Some of those teams have done ok, and some are on the way up, but there are quite a few teams without a lot of (or very fleeting) success who have drafted at the top more than Chicago. The Hawks since 2000 have had 3 top 5 picks, and 3 more top 10

 

[CasusBelli]

Before those 3? Gudbranson was the only top 5 pick they had prior to those 3. Since Horton in 2003.

I don’t nevesssrily mean top-five. But look at Olesz, Frolik and a few others (I think Markstrom and Anthony Stewart were also first rounders). None panned out — certainly didn’t live to their potential. You could even argue that Bouwmeester shouldn’t have been their selection in his draft year.

 

[aufheben]

Drafted top-5 2003-2015

1. Pittsburgh
2. Anaheim
3. Carolina
4. Minnesota
5. Montreal
6. St. Louis
7. Chicago
   
8. Washington
9. Boston
10. Tampa Bay
11. Los Angeles
12. Phoenix
    
13. Atlanta/Winnipeg
14. New York I.
15. Toronto
16. Colorado
17. Florida
18. Edmonton
19. Nashville
20. Buffalo
21. Montreal
22. Columbus
    
23. Calgary

 

[CasusBelli]

ATL/WPG
FLA
CAR
CBJ
COL
EDM
NYI
PHX
TBL
TOR

Some of those teams have done ok, and some are on the way up, but there are quite a few teams without a lot of (or very fleeting) success who have drafted at the top more than Chicago. The Hawks since 2000 have had 3 top 5 picks, and 3 more top 10

Bingo.

I’m just best acquainted with Florida, since I grew up there, following the Cats.

 

[aufheben]

Where do I look then?

2014, 2015

 

[McRanger]

Such as?

The Islanders. The Thrashers/Jets. The Avalanche. Those are some obvious answers. They all have had multiple top 5 and top 10 picks and two total playoff series wins between them in the last decade.

The Islanders had four top 5 picks in a row, including the first overall and Colorado had a 3rd overall, 2nd overall and 1st overall in the span of 5 years. Those teams are not on the fast track to a Stanley Cup.

There are also examples of teams that try to "rebuild" and never quite get bad enough to get that top pick or picks and spin their wheels in mediocrity. The Sabres or Coyotes. Florida could easily be on this list. They've had their share of high picks (dating back to the turn of the century) and haven't won a playoff series since '96.

 

[JT Kreider]

ATL/WPG
FLA
CAR
CBJ
COL
EDM
NYI
PHX
TBL
TOR

Some of those teams have done ok, and some are on the way up, but there are quite a few teams without a lot of (or very fleeting) success who have drafted at the top more than Chicago. The Hawks since 2000 have had 3 top 5 picks, and 3 more top 10

Tampa has been to Game 7 of the ECF and the SCF with Stamkos and Hedman. Edmonton was win one away from the WCF last year.

Carolina only has two 5th overall picks. CBJ only has two top 5 picks. Toronto only has 3 top 5 picks. Laine is the Jets only top 5 pick. Not exactly "always getting top picks".

 

[aufheben]

Stepan, Kreider, Del Zotto, Dubinsky, McDonagh, Anisimov...these guys ended up better than a LOT of these top-5 picks.

There is also context for these Cup-winners. Two of those LA picks were Thomas Hickey and Brayden Schenn. Bobby Ryan wasn't playing for the 2006-07 Ducks. Carolina drafted Jack Johnson one year. Chicago took advantage of cap rules that don't exist anymore. Kessel/Seguin had little to do with Boston's Cup.

 

[mike14]

Tampa has been to Game 7 of the ECF and the SCF with Stamkos and Hedman. Edmonton was win one away from the WCF last year.

Carolina only has two 5th overall picks. CBJ only has two top 5 picks. Toronto only has 3 top 5 picks. Laine is the Jets only top 5 pick. Not exactly "always getting top picks".

I was going since 200 as I figured it gave the nicest spread of allowing picks to pan out.

So Toronto has the same as CHI, Carolin and CBJ one less each. If they aren't always getting top picks, neither are Chicago...

 

[Mac n Gs]

Just because you have a top pick doesn’t ensure that the top of the draft pool will work out. This year is an obvious exception to the rule with how freaking ridiculous Dahlin and Svechnikov are, but the hype about top picks has been overblown on this site forever

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

If I were a betting man, I'd say that both EDM and Toronto will have cups before the Rangers largely due to their high drafting. Regardless of your argument for tanking or not, fact is, the Rangers method doesn't work. It might be time to try something new.

 

[Irishguy42]

If I were a betting man, I'd say that both EDM and Toronto will have cups before the Rangers largely due to their high drafting.

Who knew that sucking for long enough can get you a championship faster than honest roster building.

 

[JT Kreider]

Who knew that sucking for long enough can get you a championship faster than honest roster building.

Honest roster building? Does that include trading five straight 1st round picks? And having to buy out or trade every high profile UFA signing well before their contracts expired, and being stuck with arguably two of the worst contracts in the league?

 

[LeetchisGod]

Who knew that sucking for long enough can get you a championship faster than honest roster building.

How has "honest roster building" worked out? We have done a masterful job drafting and acquiring support pieces. The problem is that we have no elite players to lead the way.

 

[Machinehead]

Forget about the lottery.

We're gonna start winning some games if we keep playing like we have been.

Lundqvist being able to stop a f***ing zorb ball would help