Let's look at the actual numbers, as well as the context for a minute .....
According to ESPN, since 2000:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/attendance?year=2007
2000-01 18 Nashville 15,755 93.3 (non playoffs)
2001-02 26 Nashville 15,501 87.2 (non playoffs)
2002-03 30 Nashville 14,698 82.9 (non playoffs)
2003-04 28 Nashville 14,922 83.9 (lost first round)
2004-05 LOCK OUT -- NO SEASON
2005-06 25 Nashville 15,280 85.6 (lost first round)
2006-07 23 Nashville 15,580 87.1 (lost first round)
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The context:
1. The first two years, 1998-99 & 1999-00 are not listed. It would be interesting to see these years as well. 01/02 is the third year, and attendance is still pretty high (93% capacity) despite the lousy team.
2. 01/02 fell less than 2% from 00/01. The Preds were a bad team, 3 years removed from expansion.
3. 02/03 fell just over 5% from 01/02. Again, Preds were bad, now 4 years removed from expansion. This was the low point for the Preds from a support standpoint, as they finished last in the league in attendance.
4. 03/04 sees a slight increase (1.5%) as gritty team makes first ever playoff appearance and plays well against Detroit before losing in the first round. Lots of momentum heading into next year ....
5. Lock out happens. Kills ALL momentum.
6. In 05/06, Despite the lock out the year before, team is good and sees 2% increase in attendance from 03/04. Another first round loss (with only 1 win) frustrates fans.
7. In 06/07, team battles for Presidents Cup most of the season, sees another 2% jump from 05/06, only to collapse in the first round of the playoffs yet again. However, playoff tickets for the SJ series sold out for every game, in under 17 minutes. Lots of momentum heading into 07/08.
8. Interesting to point out, only ONCE in their entire history has Nashville finished at the bottom of the league in attendance (02/03). And since the lock out, they've been 25th and 23rd in the two years.
9. I do not have the "paid" attendance numbers. If there is a way to produce these numbers, we can analyze the % increase/decrease year-to-year.
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My opinion:
This team has NEVER advanced past the first round of the playoffs. Any true hockey fan knows that it's the playoff hockey that really energizes a fan base and creates buzz and excitement around town. The city of Nashville has yet to experience a true playoff atmosphere past the first week of the playoffs. You saw last year with the 17-minute ticket sell-outs that the fans were ready to go into a frenzy for the team ---- and San Jose crushed us a second straight time.
Conversely, you've seen the difference in markets like Carolina and Tampa when the team goes deep into the playoffs (and in those cases, won the cup).
Secondly:
This team has played EIGHT seasons. EIGHT! For 6 of the 8, they've finished with over 15k in attendance. Since the lockout, they have moved steadily up.
All of this has happened despite VERY LITTLE corporate support. There are reports of Leopold being "blacklisted" and "disliked" in the business community, which may play a part in the lack of corporate support.
But --- the bottom line:
This team has played 8 seasons in a market that had 0 high school teams and very little hockey exposure (minus a few minor league teams). They are not the "worst" in the league in terms of attendance and are on the upswing overall. Furthermore, without escaping the first round of the playoffs, the city has yet to experience the real thrill and fever of playoff hockey, which translates into a stronger and deeper fan base thereafter.
-Tom