Nashville - is this a lottery team?

[treple13]

I don't understand the mentality about "if the team is not a Cup contender, then what the heck are they even doing?"

They made the playoffs last year. They should be a better team this year. Division changes and a longer season may still mean they miss the playoffs. But the goal is still to make the playoffs. You don't have to be a lottery team to be building better and integrating young players into the lineup. The Preds ended up doing that quite successfully last season. Keep competing, try to make the playoffs. Gradually upgrade where possible if young players beat out incumbents. You don't have to tank down to top-5 draft picks.

BUT...BUT...tanking has done wonders in Buffalo and Arizona in the last decade. Or even Toronto. Teams that made the playoffs should totally just throw in the towel and decide to become even worse with no guarantee they don't just end up right where they currently are stuck. St. Louis should have done that a few years ago too

 

[nashpreds]

I’m not sure how Tolvanen is trending down after putting up a decent rookie season last year (45 point pace over 82 games)

But I mean, there isn’t too much hope for a playoff push. This is basically the same team that made it last year but on paper this isn’t a playoff team. This year is mostly about getting some younger guys adjusted to the NHL and dealing with the 2 big UFAs. I’m hopefully the team sells one or both at the deadline and looks to properly rebuild. I don’t want to tank, just to continue restocking the cupboards and start really changing the way the team is built.

 

[PAZ]

I'd say Nashville is one of the bigger question marks this year. Any of Duchene, Kunin, Johansen, Tolvanen, Granlund, and Glass could all put up 60+ points, but nobody would be that surprised if they only put up 20-40 points either. Josi is also a pretty big question mark after his down year - is he fully recovered, and can he still play such an impactful playstyle, or does he have to play more reserved? Fabbro and Myers are also expected to have bigger roles as well.

I can easily see this team comfortably make the playoffs, and just as easily I can see them being a bottom 10 team. IMO, Central will one of the most interesting divisions this year, alongside Metro.

 

[triggrman]

Not at all thin on defense. Just because you haven’t seen Carrier, Fabbro or Myers doesn’t mean the suck. Farrance is in that mix too.

 

[banks]

I don't think they're a playoff team. I'd expect them just outside the bubble. But definitely not bottom 5. That would require some massive underachieving or injury issues.

I'm interested to see how Glass and Tolvanen progress. And I don't think the blueline is too bad.

 

[The Red Line]

Yeah I just don't see them being a playoff team this year. They're still a blue collar team that'll fight for wins rather than tank, but I'm not sure they have enough.

 

[MNRube]

Not at all thin on defense. Just because you haven’t seen Carrier, Fabbro or Myers doesn’t mean the suck. Farrance is in that mix too.

Seen them, but it’s still a thin group. Fabbro is, ideally, a 4D and Myers a 5D but they will playing as a 3D & 4D respectively. If Farrance turns out to be a Top 4 option, then this is probably a non-issue, but you can’t count on that.

 

[innitfam]

I don't think so, no. I see them in the 13-22 range or so.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Seen them, but it’s still a thin group. Fabbro is, ideally, a 4D and Myers a 5D but they will playing as a 3D & 4D respectively. If Farrance turns out to be a Top 4 option, then this is probably a non-issue, but you can’t count on that.

Your post starts out with "Seen them"... but then goes on to suggest that you really haven't, and that you definitely don't have any sort of grasp on the blueline situation in Nashville. So, you might not want to get too confident about predicting things for us.

 

[tucker3434]

There's usually one surprising team that everyone expects to be average, but the wheels fall off for one reason or another. I doubt their offense will be good. If, for whatever reason, their save percentage takes a hit this year, I could see it being the preds.

Realistically, I expect Saros to keep them afloat, and they'll ultimately finish somewhere around 20th in the league.

 

[SenzZen]

Any team that misses the playoffs is a "lottery team"... so maybe?

They still boast some pretty solid pieces, but I agree that there are a number of question marks with the turn over they had during the offseason.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I don't think they'll be that bad. Maybe Calgary-esque.

That's my thinking, too. Neither team has the upside to be a contender with the current core, but neither of them has committed to a true rebuild just yet.

The Hurricanes were in that position for several years, just adding random spare parts to try and sneak into the playoffs. After a while it really becomes misery as a fan. The scary thing is looking into the abyss of being a team that could spend a decade waiting for a lottery ball to come up. It's a tough place to be.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Any team that misses the playoffs is a "lottery team"... so maybe?

They still boast some pretty solid pieces, but I agree that there are a number of question marks with the turn over they had during the offseason.

See, I think this is true for fans outside of Nashville who otherwise don't pay attention to the Predators. But for anyone who follows the situation, the only real loss was Jarnkrok and that was mostly due to his versatility. If you go back through our conversations last season, Arvidsson and Ellis were poor fits for the team at this point and actively holding back the roster most nights with their lack of size and play style, while providing offense at near career low rates. The only other name people would see leaving was Rinne, and he was the backup goalie.

Main additions are Glass and Myers who bring a lot more size, while Rittich should be a competent backup.

 

[beardawg]

That's my thinking, too. Neither team has the upside to be a contender with the current core, but neither of them has committed to a true rebuild just yet.

The Hurricanes were in that position for several years, just adding random spare parts to try and sneak into the playoffs. After a while it really becomes misery as a fan. The scary thing is looking into the abyss of being a team that could spend a decade waiting for a lottery ball to come up. It's a tough place to be.

It takes a little longer to "build" that way, but it seems to be more effective than the burn-it-down method ala EDM, TOR, BUF, etc

 

[Castle8130]

No Buffalo, Ottawa, Anaheim, Arizona, Detroit, New Jersey, and LA Kings are worse than them. New Jersey and LA Kings are crawling out of the hole faster than the others. To me, naming more than 5 teams worse than yours takes you out of being a "Lottery team" preseason. There are probably a lot of other teams Nashville can finish ahead of this season like the Hawks, and Sharks.

 

[Soundgarden]

Preds seem to be at a crossroads. They haven’t committed to a rebuild but the roster doesn’t look like a playoff team. Their top 6 forwards are Forsberg, Granlund, Duchene, RyJo, Tolvanen & Kunin. Defense is super thin behind Josi & Ekholm.

what’s the plan here? Are they just holding on until Askarov arrives? Short of a bounceback season from several of their forwards that have been trending down the last years (Duchene, RyJo, Granlund, Tolvanen), it’s hard to see Nashville being a threat this year. Seems like a lottery team to me, but I’m curious what others think.

No, but every team should have a vision.

Don’t see it with Nashville

I think it's crazy that some people don't see the vision of this team, they just got rid of like 5 aging/injured/bad contracts and replaced them with younger guys with more compete and we're keeping our important vets like Josi, Forsberg and Ekholm. Doing a complete tear down when they just made the playoffs would be stupid, not every team should be Buffalo.

At this point, it's safe to say that they're both not going get better than what they've shown these last few seasons.

I'd say there's a good chance of Johansen bouncing back at the very least, just replacing Arvidsson with someone better raises those odds exponentially.

 

[tarheelhockey]

It takes a little longer to "build" that way, but it seems to be more effective than the burn-it-down method ala EDM, TOR, BUF, etc

Honestly it kind of comes down to draft luck no matter how you approach it. It's so easy to sit there spinning your wheels because of random prospect busts and career-altering injuries.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

See, I think this is true for fans outside of Nashville who otherwise don't pay attention to the Predators. But for anyone who follows the situation, the only real loss was Jarnkrok and that was mostly due to his versatility. If you go back through our conversations last season, Arvidsson and Ellis were poor fits for the team at this point and actively holding back the roster most nights with their lack of size and play style, while providing offense at near career low rates. The only other name people would see leaving was Rinne, and he was the backup goalie.

Main additions are Glass and Myers who bring a lot more size, while Rittich should be a competent backup.

I hope Arvy bounces back in LA but he was mostly brutal last season, and single-handedly killing an already-inept power play. As for Ellis, the team noticeably lost their rhythm and regressed when he came back from injury. It was very clear he was not buying in to what they were trying to do and Poile did a great job dumping the contract and getting value for him.

We could finish anywhere from 2nd to 8th (and in top 5 pick territory) in the Central and it wouldn't surprise me in the least. Questioning the vision is kind of odd though. It's pretty clear this is a re-tooling team that hopes to still compete for a playoff spot while integrating a lot of younger players and prospects). Out of the veterans remaining, Josi is going to be a lifer, Ekholm may be re-signed because he also seems to be a lifer (and is our main other vet on the blueline), Forsberg might be re-signed because he's our best forward and is young enough to still contribute when coming out of the rebuild/retool, Granlund is just a good fit for what Hynes wants to do, and Johansen and Duchene are unmovable.

 

[triggrman]

We heard the dooms day stuff when we lost Kimmo, when we lost Hamhuis , when we lost Zidlicky, when we lost Franson, when we lost Suter , when we lost Weber, when we lost Jones, when we lost Subban and now we hear it with Ellis. I’m not worried, Poile always finds defensemen

 

[libertarian]

Nashville is too good to be a lottery team but not good enough to make the POs. They are now in no mans land.

 

[Mike Liut]

The central is going to be a blood bath.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Nashville is the definition of the "bubble". When they made the cup final it was as the last playoff seed. What is heartening is the new #1 line which is clicking in the pre-season and Duchene's shift to wing. Nashville is a creme brulee but upper crust is not hard enough yet. They have tons of tasty depth.

 

[who_me?]

perennial expansion team

 

[simon IC]

I thought they made some good moves, especially on defense. As a Blues fan, I will be keeping an eye on them.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Seen them, but it’s still a thin group. Fabbro is, ideally, a 4D and Myers a 5D but they will playing as a 3D & 4D respectively. If Farrance turns out to be a Top 4 option, then this is probably a non-issue, but you can’t count on that.

They will be 4 D and 5D exactly as you suggest. Ekholm will carry the Fabbro pair as our 3 D.