[NA Pro Sports Leagues] Expansion to Mexico - Will it happen?

[Big McLargehuge]

???

NFL over MLB in Mexico? By all accounts I've read is baseball's Mexico 2nd biggest sport and is arguable number 1 in a few northern cities like Monterey. I mean, MLB wont say it but they think Mexican baseball could be bigger than it is if it was just organized better and had a bette relationship like NPB does with MLB. So much talent gets wasted in that country.

Still pales in comparison to soccer tho.

You got reading material for the MLS-split, or just your own prediction?

Mexico is a single sport nation, really. Baseball has a legitimate claim as the #2 sport there, but it's still very niche and heavily biased towards a certain region (namely Monterrey). Attendance in the Mexican League is on par with low-A level teams in the US outside of the top couple teams, who are closer to AA/AAA levels. Monterrey is probably the most 'American' Mexican city, and that's where baseball is the most popular...it's also where football is most popular in Mexico.

The biggest sign that baseball just isn't that huge in baseball is that there's only a handful of Mexican players in the Majors (and a decreasing number in the minors), and the number seemingly has gone down every couple years I've been alive. As a kid I would've said expansion to Mexico was inevitable...hell, my favorite player as a kid was Francisco Cordova.

Basically I can see the NFL landing in two places in Mexico (Mexico City & Monterrey) while the only real target for baseball would be Monterrey...and I've seen nothing to indicate that that is a remote possibility.

As for the MLS thing, there's no official quotes but it's obvious that that's the way it's heading. The MLS upped their expansion plans from wanting 24 teams to 28 teams recently (currently sitting at 20 after NYCFC & Orlando joined last year and the abortion that was Chivas USA was...erm...aborted) and there's been no fewer than a dozen cities that have expressed interest in getting an MLS team in addition to those who have been awarded (Atlanta, LA2, & Minnesota will be joining by 2018, Miami is waiting on a stadium, St. Louis & San Antonio are a given, Sacramento is basically a formality at this point, there's interest from cities like Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Louisville, etc.). Mark my word, by 2025 the MLS will be split into two leagues with the only cross-over being the league championship (East/West split) like Major League Baseball before Interleague Play in 1997.

 

[cutchemist42]

I think the players' associations would be a major hurdle. I don't know how big the NFL is in Mexico, but I could see it working because there's only one game a week and 16 games in the season so the players could really just live in the southern US and commute to games. They could practice in the US and all their road games would be in the US. There are too many MLB games in a season.

I'm not sure you could convince enough players to move down there with their families. Montreal had trouble with some MLB players as it was considered too 'foreign', and you expect players to move their wives and kids to Mexico?

28% of the league is foreign, with 89 of those from the DR, 63 from Venezuela, 15 from Cuba, 14 from Mexico, and then like another 20 from PR/Colombia/Antilles/Nicaragua/Panama. Would figure playing Latin American cities wouldnt be out of place to them. Gotta remember as well Mexico City is a big enough city to have nice neighbourhoods for the privileged to live in. I mean, I got an ld foreign student friend from university still on FB, and his pictures show a very comfortable life if you got the money.

I think one thing athletes have shown is that while they might prefer some cities over others, a job playing a sport in a bad city is still getting paid for sports.

 

[cutchemist42]

Mexico is a single sport nation, really. Baseball has a legitimate claim as the #2 sport there, but it's still very niche and heavily biased towards a certain region (namely Monterrey). Attendance in the Mexican League is on par with low-A level teams in the US outside of the top couple teams, who are closer to AA/AAA levels. Monterrey is probably the most 'American' Mexican city, and that's where baseball is the most popular...it's also where football is most popular in Mexico.

The biggest sign that baseball just isn't that huge in baseball is that there's only a handful of Mexican players in the Majors (and a decreasing number in the minors), and the number seemingly has gone down every couple years I've been alive. As a kid I would've said expansion to Mexico was inevitable...hell, my favorite player as a kid was Francisco Cordova.

Basically I can see the NFL landing in two places in Mexico (Mexico City & Monterrey) while the only real target for baseball would be Monterrey...and I've seen nothing to indicate that that is a remote possibility.

As for the MLS thing, there's no official quotes but it's obvious that that's the way it's heading. The MLS upped their expansion plans from wanting 24 teams to 28 teams recently (currently sitting at 20 after NYCFC & Orlando joined last year and the abortion that was Chivas USA was...erm...aborted) and there's been no fewer than a dozen cities that have expressed interest in getting an MLS team in addition to those who have been awarded (Atlanta, LA2, & Minnesota will be joining by 2018, Miami is waiting on a stadium, St. Louis & San Antonio are a given, Sacramento is basically a formality at this point, there's interest from cities like Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Louisville, etc.). Mark my word, by 2025 the MLS will be split into two leagues with the only cross-over being the league championship (East/West split) like Major League Baseball before Interleague Play in 1997.

The thing about Mexican baseball is that it cant be judged on the amount of players making it to MLB, as it has the most restrictive player rights' system in baseball beside for Cuba. Its something Manfred just addressed at Harvard a few days ago. Its a problem when there are so Mexican-Americans that dont watch baseball because they know the Latin players dont represent them. Manfred has been working very hard for the past year on coming to terms with the Mexican leagues to get those players released at reasonable ages instead of being hoarded. Teams want into Mexico, but its just too hard for MLB teams to reach these players before their rights are held for years by the clubs.

If MLB could figure something like they do wth the KBO/NPB, the amount of Mexican players would probably jump to 25 from the current 15.

I'd lay down good money MLB beats the NFL to Mexico. I mean, there's a low quality university league and thats it, with no relevant football prospects even coming out of the country. Their football structure proably isnt as good as what you find in Japan or Germany.

 

[tony d]

Mexico is a growing hockey market which is great to see but I doubt they get a NHL expansion team. Think the NFL or MLB may go there though eventually.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

where's aqib when you expect him?

 

[varsaku]

NFL has the best chance at success in Mexico. There is a really good following already from what I heard. I believe there are a lot of stealers fans there. NFL can nearly work anywhere now since they have made it into a major social event. Also have just 8 home games in a market that big makes it easier to fill a stadium.

 

[FuriousSenator]

Are people not counting the MLS? I know at least one friendly match was played in Mexico against a local club. They seem closer than MLB to making a Mexican expansion happen

This isn't Canada where we sell ourselves into indentured servitude to the American leagues every chance we get.

The Liga MX is twice the league MLS is. Soccer is meant to be kept nationally bound. Canadian clubs in MLS and NASL is an anomaly.

 

[Fenway]

NFL has the best chance at success in Mexico. There is a really good following already from what I heard. I believe there are a lot of stealers fans there. NFL can nearly work anywhere now since they have made it into a major social event. Also have just 8 home games in a market that big makes it easier to fill a stadium.

We overlook that Mexico City is the largest city in North America. While much of the population is in poverty there is certainly enough wealth to support the NFL.

 

[bluesfan94]

This isn't Canada where we sell ourselves into indentured servitude to the American leagues every chance we get.

The Liga MX is twice the league MLS is. Soccer is meant to be kept nationally bound. Canadian clubs in MLS and NASL is an anomaly.

Wales is in the EPL system. Monaco is in the French. San Marino is in the Italian system. Andorra is in the Spanish. Obviously the last three are different but the first example is indicative.

 

[FuriousSenator]

Wales is in the EPL system. Monaco is in the French. San Marino is in the Italian system. Andorra is in the Spanish. Obviously the last three are different but the first example is indicative.

No Wales is not. 3 Welsh teams happen to be.

Wales has its own national football league pyramid. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_football_league_system

 

[Hoek]

And point being in all those cases it's a lesser soccer nation piggy backing onto a better one's league. Mexico doesn't need to do that.

 

[Cacciaguida]

if the MLB is expands outside of the USA, they're going back to Montreal.

 

[Barnum]

We overlook that Mexico City is the largest city in North America. While much of the population is in poverty there is certainly enough wealth to support the NFL.

I refute there's enough money there. According to Mexican Govt stats, 36% of the population live on $5.00 or less a day and almost 50% live on $157.36 a month. The poverty rate in the State of Chiapas which includes Mexico City is an astounding 76.2% (see above monthly figure) These numbers are appalling and does not include people over the 157 USD mark. How many are just over but not a poverty statistic? Mexico City could not possibly support a Can-Am pro team. Soccer is cheap to attend football, hockey etc are not.

I'd be interested to see the ticket sales for the Mexico City game. I bet it's Americans buying them up for a vacation along with drug cartels.

 

[nutbar]

Chiapas is in southern Mexico, bordering Guatemala. Mexico City is not in Chiapas.



Mexico City = Federal District, Fwiw: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Mexican_states_by_poverty_rate

 

[Barnum]

Chiapas is in southern Mexico, bordering Guatemala. Mexico City is not in Chiapas.

Worded funny but what it means is the two poorest states in Mexico are Chiapas and Mexico City with poverty rates of 76%.

 

[Fenway]

I refute there's enough money there. According to Mexican Govt stats, 36% of the population live on $5.00 or less a day and almost 50% live on $157.36 a month. The poverty rate in the State of Chiapas which includes Mexico City is an astounding 76.2% (see above monthly figure) These numbers are appalling and does not include people over the 157 USD mark. How many are just over but not a poverty statistic? Mexico City could not possibly support a Can-Am pro team. Soccer is cheap to attend football, hockey etc are not.

I'd be interested to see the ticket sales for the Mexico City game. I bet it's Americans buying them up for a vacation along with drug cartels.

Mexico City is in its own district (much like Washington, DC) and most of the burbs are in the State of Mexico. Yes there is much poverty there but there is also enormous wealth - population is roughly 23,000,000. The largest crowd to watch any NFL game was 112,376 in a preseason matchup between the Cowboys and Houston Oilers in Mexico City in 1994.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Timberwolves had a regular season game scheduled in MC against the Spurs.

But then the arena caught fire and the game was moved back to Target Center.

Seriously.

 

[Barnum]

Mexico City is in its own district (much like Washington, DC) and most of the burbs are in the State of Mexico. Yes there is much poverty there but there is also enormous wealth - population is roughly 23,000,000. The largest crowd to watch any NFL game was 112,376 in a preseason matchup between the Cowboys and Houston Oilers in Mexico City in 1994.

I know it's a district, I was giving you Mexican Govt stats, right from their own records. They are two most poverty stricken areas in Mexico.

You really trying to connect the dots from 1994 to 2016? Lots of things have changed since then. including Mexico being very close to falling apart. I can't go back any further than 2006 but average ticket prices was 62 bucks and today they are about 85 bucks. SB tixs were $125.00 in 1994 and now they are over $4000.00. That gives you a little scale to the inflation of NFL tickets between 1994 to 2016. Not perfect but an example.

For Mexican wage earners, the yearly salary is $11,000. That's the group outside of the 76% living below that figure. There is no chance Mexico is ever considered, even with 8.9 million people living in MC. and with 21 million in the metro. It's just not fiscally possible.

 

[nutbar]

Worded funny but what it means is the two poorest states in Mexico are Chiapas and Mexico City with poverty rates of 76%.

Where does it say Mexico City is one of the poorest states in Mexico?

 

[Barnum]

Where does it say Mexico City is one of the poorest states in Mexico?

Google, your fingers work.

 

[Sparksrus3]

I could see it now.
The L A kings are at the airport getting ready to fly back from a game in Mexico..
The customs agents are all huddled around talking.
They can be heard whispering - " they came down last night with 18 players but there are
1200 trying to get on the plane home"

Thanks again for NAFTA Mr Clinton. Just my 2 cents.

 

[CHIP72]

I could see it now.
The L A kings are at the airport getting ready to fly back from a game in Mexico..
The customs agents are all huddled around talking.
They can be heard whispering - " they came down last night with 18 players but there are
1200 trying to get on the plane home"

Thanks again for NAFTA Mr Clinton. Just my 2 cents.

Yeah, having Mexico as the United States' #3 trading partner in the world is a bad thing for the U.S.

Incidentally, Canada is the United States' #1 trading partner in the world.

 

[CHIP72]

The only U.S./Canada major sports league (sorry MLS) that I could see placing a team in Mexico is the NFL. The two major obstacles to the NFL doing that are:

1) Mexico's considerably lower income levels and standard of living relative to the U.S.

2) The fact English is not the primary language.

I personally think Mexico City is large enough to support an NFL team just with its affluent population; the less affluent who are big (American) football fans would find ways to attend individual games too.

I also think from a logistics standpoint it would easier for the players if the NFL put a team in Mexico City (or possibly Monterrey) rather than London (which appears to be the front-runner for a non-U.S. NFL team assuming the NFL doesn't want to encroach on the CFL's turf). Mexico has the most NFL fans of any country outside the U.S., and only Canada is comparable when measuring the number of NFL fans per capita. (I calculated this recently and I think Canada is slightly ahead but Canada and Mexico are very comparable on a per capita basis and both are well ahead of all other countries.)

Countries outside the U.S. with most NFL fans (early 2015): http://i100.independent.co.uk/artic...the-most-nfl-fans-outside-america--eJDbChqAsl

 

[varsaku]

I know it's a district, I was giving you Mexican Govt stats, right from their own records. They are two most poverty stricken areas in Mexico.

You really trying to connect the dots from 1994 to 2016? Lots of things have changed since then. including Mexico being very close to falling apart. I can't go back any further than 2006 but average ticket prices was 62 bucks and today they are about 85 bucks. SB tixs were $125.00 in 1994 and now they are over $4000.00. That gives you a little scale to the inflation of NFL tickets between 1994 to 2016. Not perfect but an example.

For Mexican wage earners, the yearly salary is $11,000. That's the group outside of the 76% living below that figure. There is no chance Mexico is ever considered, even with 8.9 million people living in MC. and with 21 million in the metro. It's just not fiscally possible.

Even if you take the 24% above the poverty line out of 21 million people. That is still nearly 5 million people above the poverty line. That alone would still put it as one of the largest cities in North America. That is a huge market that is really only been tapped by soccer. I know many people who have been getting tired of soccer due to the hooliganism at games. I doesn't create a family friendly environment which NFL could provide and get those people.

 

[Sparksrus3]

Yeah, having Mexico as the United States' #3 trading partner in the world is a bad thing for the U.S.

Incidentally, Canada is the United States' #1 trading partner in the world.

Announced today. The Carrier company ( heating and A/C ) is going to close its Indianapolis manufacturing plant within 3 years and move all to Mexico. Another one bites the dust.
Of course the Headquarters and engineers will remain in Indianappolis. FN Joke .
The list is endless.

I just typed and erased a couple hundred words to you about nafta .
I will just say check specific stats not generalizations like you stated.
Hundreds of thousands or more jobs have left the U.S.
Just see the list of companies that have moved manufacturing away from the U.S.
Ask your 50 or 60 year old neighbor why he works at McDonald's. Maybe he lost his job. Maybe he has a skill that is only needed south of the border at 10 percent of his salary.
As for trading partners as you say, the U.S. deficit with these countries has never been higher.
At least before Nafta there was a small surplus statistically speaking. I hope your life , whether you are young or old is prosperous on a personal, family, and professional level, but don't ever tell me Nafta
Is good for the majority of the U.S. citizens.
Bring the jobs back home.