My Rank of The most Likely players from the 2003 NHL Draft to make the HHOF

[BlueBull]

The title says my opening lines, pretty much.
Practically Guarunteed:
1. Patrice Bergeron
2. Ryan Getzlaf
Very Likely:
3. Shea Weber
4. Marc-Andre Fleury
Fairly Good Chance:
5. Corey Perry
6. Eric Staal
Lower Chance:
7. Brent Burns
8. Ryan Suter
9. Zach Parise
10. Corey Crawford
Not Likely:
11. Thomas Vanek
12. Jeff Carter
13. Joe Pavelski
Fluke (Just for lols):
14. Ryan Kesler
15. Jaroslav Halak
16. Dion Phaneuf (lols FTW)

-BlueBull

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[Frankie Blueberries]

The title says my opening lines, pretty much.
Practically Guarunteed:
1. Patrice Bergeron
2. Ryan Getzlaf
Very Likely:
3. Shea Weber
4. Marc-Andre Fleury
Fairly Good Chance:
5. Corey Perry
6. Eric Staal
Lower Chance:
7. Brent Burns
8. Ryan Suter
9. Zach Parise
10. Corey Crawford
Not Likely:
11. Thomas Vanek
12. Jeff Carter
13. Joe Pavelski
Fluke (Just for lols):
14. Ryan Kesler
15. Jaroslav Halak
16. Dion Phaneuf (lols FTW)
[I Put this in prospects, please move this HOH, thanks in advance. ]
-BlueBull

I don't think Weber gets in with no major hardware. He should have won a Norris in his prime, but he didn't. He also has never gotten past the 2nd round of the playoffs. I'm a huge Weber fan (see my username), but it's looking less and less likely that he'll get into the HOF.

How come you think Getzlaf is a lock? I'm 50-50 on him. On the one hand, he has won a Cup and has been consistently great throughout his career and has won two Olympic golds. On the other hand, he played a secondary role on that Cup team and he has not won any individual awards.

I think MAF actually has the second best chance after Bergeron, depending on his tenure in Las Vegas. He could be a lock if he wins a Vezina or a Cup with Vegas.

 

[Soundgarden]

I don't think Weber gets in with no major hardware. He should have won a Norris in his prime, but he didn't. He also has never gotten past the 2nd round of the playoffs. I'm a huge Weber fan (see my username), but it's looking less and less likely that he'll get into the HOF.

Weber will most likely get in, IMO, his two 2nd place Norris trophy rankings were the smallest margin of any year. He was a Matt Carle away from winning one Norris and a Ryan McDonagh from winning two.

I've said this somewhere else, but the weakness of past drafts may have a part in getting him inducted. Look back at how weak they 2000-2002 drafts are, there's a very good chance that Duncan Keith and Henrik Lundqvist are the only players inducted from those years.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Weber will most likely get in, IMO, his two 2nd place Norris trophy rankings were the smallest margin of any year. He was a Matt Carle away from winning one Norris and a Ryan McDonagh from winning two.

I've said this somewhere else, but the weakness of past drafts may have a part in getting him inducted. Look back at how weak they 2000-2002 drafts are, there's a very good chance that Duncan Keith and Henrik Lundqvist are the only players inducted from those years.

That's fair. Weber to me is like the defenceman version of Luongo. Amazing player, but when you look at awards, it's hard to make a case for them to get into the HOF.

 

[Thenameless]

The title says my opening lines, pretty much.
Practically Guarunteed:
1. Patrice Bergeron
2. Ryan Getzlaf
Very Likely:
3. Shea Weber
4. Marc-Andre Fleury
Fairly Good Chance:
5. Corey Perry
6. Eric Staal
Lower Chance:
7. Brent Burns
8. Ryan Suter
9. Zach Parise
10. Corey Crawford
Not Likely:
11. Thomas Vanek
12. Jeff Carter
13. Joe Pavelski
Fluke (Just for lols):
14. Ryan Kesler
15. Jaroslav Halak
16. Dion Phaneuf (lols FTW)

-BlueBull

It's funny that Phaneuf would have probably been one of the highest contenders early on in his career. He would have probably been second to Eric Staal after about two or three years in the NHL.

 

[BlueBull]

It's funny that Phaneuf would have probably been one of the highest contenders early on in his career. He would have probably been second to Eric Staal after about two or three years in the NHL.

Yeah he I checked. By 2008, the top 3 Point Shares for 2003 Draft picks were: (only looked at lottery picks btw so I might be wrong)
1. Marc-Andre Fleury 30.4
2. Dion Phaneuf 30.3
3. Eric Staal 30.1

Dion had 30.3 PS in 3 Seasons! If he kept growing I bet his prime (25-27) would have been a Top 5 Player in the NHL and a Perennial Norris Winner. What if Dion did not Collapse post 2008, what if.

 

[Thenameless]

Yeah he I checked. By 2008, the top 3 Point Shares for 2003 Draft picks were: (only looked at lottery picks btw so I might be wrong)
1. Marc-Andre Fleury 30.4
2. Dion Phaneuf 30.3
3. Eric Staal 30.1

Dion had 30.3 PS in 3 Seasons! If he kept growing I bet his prime (25-27) would have been a Top 5 Player in the NHL and a Perennial Norris Winner. What if Dion did not Collapse post 2008, what if.

It's okay, he ended up with Elisha Cuthbert. That's better than a Norris.

 

[Fantomas]

With the likes of Bernie Federko and Joe Mullen in the hall of fame, it will be pretty tough to deny Getzlaf, Staal, Burns, Perry, Parise, Carter and Pavelski. Maybe Ryan Suter too.

Perry won the Hart Trophy for goodness sake. Burns won the Norris. These guys are all logical choices and some are even no brainers.

The precedent for hall of fame candidacy isn't as special as some people think.

 

[Fantomas]

That's fair. Weber to me is like the defenceman version of Luongo. Amazing player, but when you look at awards, it's hard to make a case for them to get into the HOF.

For some reason the hall of fame is tougher on defensemen than it is on forwards. There are plenty of forwards in the hall with very little software, but not as much with defensemen.

Nevertheless there are guys there who never won a Norris. Mark Howe is one. Phil Housley. Larry Murphy. Weber is as good as they are.

 

[bobholly39]

It's pretty crazy how this is often talked about as maybe the best draft ever - yet there's not a single player whose a "lock" for the HHOF. A lot of maybes, some even very probable, but no absolute lock.

Bergeron is the closest to a lock imo - but even him he's mostly getting in based on defensive accomplishments which hasn't happened often for NHL players, so i wouldn't say a complete lock.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

MAF goes under 'not likely' at best.

zero hardware
zero vezina finalist
zero vezina wins
zero post season AS
top 10 GAA finishes of 3-8-9
top 10 sv% finishes of 5-6-10
only 1 cup as a starter...the last 2 he rode the pine. And realistically he cost the Pens some Cups from 09 to 16

he is a poor man's Osgood.

The only reason he has a gaudy win total is because he played behind Crosby/Malkin for a decade and played in an era with no ties

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I don't think Weber gets in with no major hardware. He should have won a Norris in his prime, but he didn't. He also has never gotten past the 2nd round of the playoffs. I'm a huge Weber fan (see my username), but it's looking less and less likely that he'll get into the HOF.

How come you think Getzlaf is a lock? I'm 50-50 on him. On the one hand, he has won a Cup and has been consistently great throughout his career and has won two Olympic golds. On the other hand, he played a secondary role on that Cup team and he has not won any individual awards.

I think MAF actually has the second best chance after Bergeron, depending on his tenure in Las Vegas. He could be a lock if he wins a Vezina or a Cup with Vegas.

Led that cup team in points and TOI amongst forwards... he was our most important forward on that run. I think that theory is a myth.

 

[BlueBull]

MAF goes under 'not likely' at best.

zero hardware
zero vezina finalist
zero vezina wins
zero post season AS
top 10 GAA finishes of 3-8-9
top 10 sv% finishes of 5-6-10
only 1 cup as a starter...the last 2 he rode the pine. And realistically he cost the Pens some Cups from 09 to 16

he is a poor man's Osgood.

The only reason he has a gaudy win total is because he played behind Crosby/Malkin for a decade and played in an era with no ties

We don't know how far vegas is gonna go. If they go far, and Fleury maintains this pace and gets 8-9 shutouts and a 16-0, 16-1 record... First of all, Unanimous Smythe to Fleury. Secondly, my Ballot on fleury year one. Maybe even the first ballot.

 

[Dissonance Jr]

Brent Burns is an interesting one. At the moment it's hard to make the case that he's had a better career than Doug Wilson, who has been left out of the HHOF. But a few more elite years could conceivably change that calculus. (And, I don't know, maybe you could make the case that Wilson should be in.)

 

[GlitchMarner]

I'm not as confident Perry gets in after this season/his playoffs. His trajectory doesn't seem all that promising. I was quite confident he would be a HHOF'er months ago.

 

[tony d]

Think Bergeron, Weber, Getzlaf, Suter and Staal are the top 5 most likely to go to the HHOF out of this draft.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Brent Burns is an interesting one. At the moment it's hard to make the case that he's had a better career than Doug Wilson, who has been left out of the HHOF. But a few more elite years could conceivably change that calculus. (And, I don't know, maybe you could make the case that Wilson should be in.)

where would we land on a frankenstein HHOF candidate of the first half of phaneuf's career and the second half of burns' career to date?

or, what if, the first four years of phaneuf, seabrook from 2010 to 2015, burns 2016 to now?

that exercise (another example: parise up to 2012, pavelski since 2013, which is a bona fide high end HOVG guy with almost 1,000 games, almost 400 goals, and more than 800 points in fifteen years after the draft, with 1.5 seasons lost to lockout) shows us just how rare those long, steady 15+ season HHOF careers of the 1979 to 1989 draft guys (esp. '79-'82) are today. it's a weird thing: someone like corey perry, or even getzlaf(?), suffers when you compare him to the standards of drafts that featured hawerchuk, francis, chelios, macinnis, and fuhr; or savard, kurri, coffey, murphy. objectively, you look at corey perry and ask, sure he peaked really high but is the whole body of work even as consistently good as bernie nicholls?

on the other hand, guys from those drafts, like andreychuk, housley, maybe someday soon nicholls or, some later guys like damphousse, roenick, turgeon, will they get in because the truly elite years of current guys like staal, suter, fleury were so sporadic?

which make bergeron and weber the unicorns of this draft, consistency-wise. slower and steadier won the race.

on the other hand, given how the conversation on the first two picks of the draft are so incredibly different now than just nine months ago, maybe we all speak too soon...

 

[GordieHowsUrBreath]

Getzlaf would have a hart if Crosby got hurt the season he was the runner up

Perry wouldn't have a hart if Crosby didn't get hurt the season he won

 

[GMR]

MAF is an interesting case. Reminds me of Cujo, except he actually has a Cup. He will likely finish with over 500 wins in his career. Tons of playoff experience. One Cup as starter and two as backup.

The problem is the lack of individual hardware. Very few will pick him as one of the top goalies of his generation without any individual hardware (unless he wins the Smythe this year).

 

[Habs Icing]

MAF goes under 'not likely' at best.

zero hardware
zero vezina finalist
zero vezina wins
zero post season AS
top 10 GAA finishes of 3-8-9
top 10 sv% finishes of 5-6-10
only 1 cup as a starter...the last 2 he rode the pine. And realistically he cost the Pens some Cups from 09 to 16

he is a poor man's Osgood.

The only reason he has a gaudy win total is because he played behind Crosby/Malkin for a decade and played in an era with no ties

You do know he plays for Vegas this year, right? What's the excuse for his gaudy numbers now? The tacky lights on Las Vegas Blvd?

 

[The Panther]

I would say Bergeron is a probable, but not 'for sure' as of yet. I suppose it's hard to deny a guy with 4 Selkes (not that I put much weight in that particular trophy), but Brind'amour had multiple Selkes and isn't in, then you've got Kesler, Draper, Peca....

Getzlaf is about 90% certain, I'd say. Really consistent and productive player over many seasons, has the Cup, has the playoff numbers, All Star appearances, etc. He's also popular with media and retired Hall of Famers and their cronies.

A few years ago, the hockey media went crazy for Shea Weber and were hyping him up like the second-coming of Lidstrom/Bourque, but since his trade to Montreal (even though he seemingly had a good season last year), he's sort-of yesterday's man in media narratives. Non-factor this season, and the guy he was traded for has thrived on his new team, which somehow looks bad. Didn't quite get the Norrises, so I'm not sure if the ship has sailed on him or not.

M.A. Fleury has been at times one of the best goalies in the world, and at other times couldn't stop a beach-ball. I love the guy and have defended him on here before (Penguin fans had a go at me a couple of years ago when I said he was great; they all thought he was holding them back), but at present he's borderline and maybe on the wrong side of the border. Has the Cups and achievements, but no hardware or impressive stats. I think maybe his only chance if is Vegas were to win the Cup, or if he won the Vezina or something this year, and then the media-narrative would go into overdrive.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

Can someone please point to me a D with a Norris record as good as Weber and is not in the HOF?

Weber is a lock. HOF candidacy is not simply dependent on a binary analysis of award wins. Award finishes matter too.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Can someone please point to me a D with a Norris record as good as Weber and is not in the HOF?

Weber is a lock. HOF candidacy is not simply dependent on a binary analysis of award wins. Award finishes matter too.

doug wilson, and he even has a win.

 

[Sprague Cleghorn]

doug wilson, and he even has a win.

1, 3, 4, 4 vs 2, 2, 3, 4, 4

Weber's 2nds are almost equivalent to wins considering the margins he lost by. I feel Weber was more highly regarded during his time than Wilson's. Im pretty sure Weber would have placed 1st or 2nd many times in a year end top D list compared to Wilson (was Wilson even ever considered the best or 2nd best D during his time?)

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

1, 3, 4, 4 vs 2, 2, 3, 4, 4

Weber's 2nds are almost equivalent to wins considering the margins he lost by. I feel Weber was more highly regarded during his time than Wilson's. Im pretty sure Weber would have placed 1st or 2nd many times in a year end top D list compared to Wilson (was Wilson even ever considered the best or 2nd best D during his time?)

i think those finishes are pretty close, when considering wilson's competition vs. weber's. ditto the weber probably being generally higher on a year end top d list than wilson.

not that i don't think weber will be a HHOFer. i think he certainly will. but i think, relative to wilson and blake, who are probably his closest comparables, he has the weakest playoff resume by some distance. on the other hand, as you say, he also is held in the highest esteem relative to his peers. if i'm making a top defenseman of all time list, i have weber behind both, though there is the question of how the rest of his career shakes out of course.

i also still firmly believe that he got too much credit and suter far too little during their time together in nashville. from what i saw, suter was the better player on that pair, even though weber got all the norris votes (the most of his career).

one thing that always bugged me about the weber 2nd places argument, though, is that yes those 2nds are ridiculously close to being 1sts. but they are also very close to being 3rd. in 2011 especially, the year i personally would have voted for weber to win it, he is actually 3rd in 1st place votes, behind lidstrom and chara.