Most underrated and overrated goalies?

[Bleedred]

Hiller had a .944 Sv% in the 2009 playoffs and he faced almost 40 shots a game, many were extremely high quality as he played a prime Sharks and Red Wings team.

That's exactly what I mean there. It seems like his shots per game went down by a few in 11-12 and his save percentage also dipped a bit, at least for the rest of his time in Anaheim. Had one more solid season in Calgary in 15-16, before imploding the next year and hightailing it over to Europe, before he even became eligible to test UFA.

I remember being so annoyed with Nabokov that 2009 playoff series. That was when I had made up my mind that I didn't want him back after 09-10 when he was a UFA, and he wasn't brought back.

I was a fan of Nabokov's, but I always doubted he could win a cup or take you on a deep run, outside of 2004. He played hockey in the Sharks run to the 2004 WCF, but he was a passenger in the 2010 run to the WCF. He had some really pedestrian numbers for a starting goalie on a conference finalist that year.

 

[Saitama]

Overrated:

Helleback
Allen
Price

Underrated:

Jones
Crawford

How can this guy be over-rated when nobody has ever heard of him?

Yes, I know who you mean, but seeing as you're a serious Jets hater, it really doesn't matter. Doesn't seem like anybody in this thread agrees with you, like usual.

 

[biturbo19]

Going into this season, i was a bit flabbergasted by the Antti Raanta hype. Seemed wildly overrated. Though i think that hype has cooled pretty fast.

Pekka Rinne seems to fly a bit high based on name recognition. And while Goalie Bob is clearly a top tier goaltender when healthy, i think a lot of the proclamations that he's the very best in the league make him a bit overrated. Ben Bishop has long been overrated. Lundqvist was the most overrated for a while, but i think perception has started to really come back down to reality on him...especially as his play has slipped, really emphasizing it.

On the other end of things, i think Martin Jones is a rock solid netminder who somehow manages to fly under the radar. Semyon Varlamov also seems to be a bit of a forgotten man, playing behind a tragic defence and having troubles staying healthy. Which makes it somewhat understandable that he isn't talked about much, but when he's healthy on his game...he's right up there with the very best.

 

[Bleedred]

Going into this season, i was a bit flabbergasted by the Antti Raanta hype. Seemed wildly overrated. Though i think that hype has cooled pretty fast.

Pekka Rinne seems to fly a bit high based on name recognition. And while Goalie Bob is clearly a top tier goaltender when healthy, i think a lot of the proclamations that he's the very best in the league make him a bit overrated. Ben Bishop has long been overrated. Lundqvist was the most overrated for a while, but i think perception has started to really come back down to reality on him...especially as his play has slipped, really emphasizing it.

On the other end of things, i think Martin Jones is a rock solid netminder who somehow manages to fly under the radar. Semyon Varlamov also seems to be a bit of a forgotten man, playing behind a tragic defence and having troubles staying healthy. Which makes it somewhat understandable that he isn't talked about much, but when he's healthy on his game...he's right up there with the very best.

How can you say lundqvist was the most overrated for a while (he was easily the best goalie in the league for a decade between 2005-2015. Not necessarily the best every year in that decade, but the most consistent over those 10 years, with Luongo being pretty close) in one sentence, then say Martin Jones is rock solid and manages to fly under the radar in the next, then say that Varlamov is one of the very best when on his game? Varlamov hasn't been great in almost 3 years. He wasn't bad two years ago, he was pretty average, but he's been terrible for the last 2 years (albeit in only 37 games played in that span) now. Pickard wasn't good last year, but still was a bit better than him on the same team. Varlamov hasn't been ''On his game'' in at least 2 years. And you can't cherrypick and say ''Well, he played a really good game tonight and he was amazing last week in one game''.

And I don't wanna hear about the defense making Jones look worse last season. Jones had a below league average save percentage on a pretty good team. Bobrovsky, outside of 15-16, has been quite a bit better than Jones since Jones came into the league. Even his injury plagued and poor season was better than what we've seen out of Varlamov over the last year+. Even Lundqvist's decline seasons are looking better than Varlamov's and Lundqvist was also not much worse last year than Jones was.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Underrated: Vasilevskiy, Schneider, Crawford
Overrated: Price, Lundqvist, Anderson (OTT)

 

[SladeWilson23]

Exactly. And now that the Kings are middle of the pack in terms of shots against, his save percentage is elite so far this year.

I wouldn't say this necessarily though. Low shot totals can deflate SV%, but teams that limit high danger chances, rebounds and cross-crease plays more than they limit shot totals will likely inflate SV%.

True, but the effect is very limited. Did you know every team in the league has somewhere between 9 and 13 HD chances for and against per 60? Not only that, but just about every team's HD chances for and against per 60 is essentially identical. Every team allows the same number of HD chances that they generate.

 

[SladeWilson23]

That's not the point, Dubnyk faces a ton of low quality shots, just like Lehner which is why despite their great Sv% at times they are not actually playing well whatsoever. Now Allen and Rinne don't face too many high quality chances, and in Allen's scenario he faces some of the lowest chances overall in the league, but both of these goalies have great rebound control (Rinne is arguably the best rebound controller in the league, there was actually a study done on puck frozen percentage and low danger rebounds, and Rinne was AINEC in both categories, but this study has not been done after the 2014-2015 concluded). Both are also excellent puck handlers/movers. Dubnyk is outright awful in moving the puck, Lehner isn't good. Dubnyk's rebound control has been much better with the Wild than other teams, but it's still nothing special, while Lhehner's rebound control is god awful. This is kinda showing that their expected save percentage is far more team based, rather than RInne and Allen's, who yes have their teams excellent defense helping them out, but at the same time they also support their teams. Allen's expected save percentage on the same Blues team was always significantly better than Elliotts, and especially better than Halak, because Allen is a superior rebound controller and puck player, which limit chances of all quality.

That's the thing though. Every team in the league will allow AND generate between 9 and 13 high danger chances per 60. Every single team. In other words, the number of HD chances for and against has ZERO correlation with the number of shot attempts a team generates or allows.

As far as everything else, you make a great point. However, need I remind you that the best goalie ever Hasek was not the most technical goalie either.

 

[Rydgar]

Luongo's underrated. The guy's never had a bad season as a starter goalie in his long career on both good and bad teams. I may be biased as I put a high value in consistency which is hard to find in a goalie season-to-season.

 

[135ace]

How can this guy be over-rated when nobody has ever heard of him?

Yes, I know who you mean, but seeing as you're a serious Jets hater, it really doesn't matter. Doesn't seem like anybody in this thread agrees with you, like usual.

Surprising as it may be the Hellebuyck hype train has died down now that he's performing. But for at least the past 2+ years the Jets have not needed a goalie because they have "the amazing Hellebuyck" even though he hadn't done anything noteworthy.

 

[135ace]

How can you say lundqvist was the most overrated for a while (he was easily the best goalie in the league for a decade between 2005-2015. Not necessarily the best every year in that decade, but the most consistent over those 10 years, with Luongo being pretty close) in one sentence, then say Martin Jones is rock solid and manages to fly under the radar in the next, then say that Varlamov is one of the very best when on his game? Varlamov hasn't been great in almost 3 years. He wasn't bad two years ago, he was pretty average, but he's been terrible for the last 2 years (albeit in only 37 games played in that span) now. Pickard wasn't good last year, but still was a bit better than him on the same team. Varlamov hasn't been ''On his game'' in at least 2 years. And you can't cherrypick and say ''Well, he played a really good game tonight and he was amazing last week in one game''.

And I don't wanna hear about the defense making Jones look worse last season. Jones had a below league average save percentage on a pretty good team. Bobrovsky, outside of 15-16, has been quite a bit better than Jones since Jones came into the league. Even his injury plagued and poor season was better than what we've seen out of Varlamov over the last year+. Even Lundqvist's decline seasons are looking better than Varlamov's and Lundqvist was also not much worse last year than Jones was.

Probably because even when Lundqvist was the best in the league Rangers fans were comparing him to the likes of Brodeur, Roy and Hasek and he doesn't even deserve to hold their jockstraps.

 

[Section32]

Probably because even when Lundqvist was the best in the league Rangers fans were comparing him to the likes of Brodeur, Roy and Hasek and he doesn't even deserve to hold their jockstraps.

Shock-Horror...another Devil's fan commenting on Lundqvist...

Worry about your own team...they have been relevant for 2 months in half a decade...

 

[Brian McDavid]

Overrated: Quick
Underrated: Anderson

 

[Regal]

True, but the effect is very limited. Did you know every team in the league has somewhere between 9 and 13 HD chances for and against per 60? Not only that, but just about every team's HD chances for and against per 60 is essentially identical. Every team allows the same number of HD chances that they generate.

I don't buy that those numbers accurately reflect what's going on. I believe HD chances as they're recorded are about position on the ice. There's far more that goes into it including the space the shooter has, angle and direction of puck, rebound or not, cross ice or not, etc. I think this is what xGF tried to take into account (and thus expected save percentage). It should be obvious watching games that there's large differences between the actual high end chances teams give up. The number of breakdowns for bottom 5 teams can be astounding at times.

Besides that, even just using your numbers, 13 is 44% more than 9. That adds up over the course of a year.

 

[Regal]

That's the thing though. Every team in the league will allow AND generate between 9 and 13 high danger chances per 60. Every single team. In other words, the number of HD chances for and against has ZERO correlation with the number of shot attempts a team generates or allows.

As far as everything else, you make a great point. However, need I remind you that the best goalie ever Hasek was not the most technical goalie either.

This year teams are giving up between 28.7 and 36.6 shots per game. That's a 27.5% difference between the highest and lowest, which is smaller than the 44.4% difference between HD chances

 

[Dustin]

Underrated: Goalies that are playing really good as of right now.

Overrated: Goalies that are playing really bad as of right now.

 

[Regal]

That's exactly what I mean there. It seems like his shots per game went down by a few in 11-12 and his save percentage also dipped a bit, at least for the rest of his time in Anaheim. Had one more solid season in Calgary in 15-16, before imploding the next year and hightailing it over to Europe, before he even became eligible to test UFA.

I remember being so annoyed with Nabokov that 2009 playoff series. That was when I had made up my mind that I didn't want him back after 09-10 when he was a UFA, and he wasn't brought back.

I was a fan of Nabokov's, but I always doubted he could win a cup or take you on a deep run, outside of 2004. He played hockey in the Sharks run to the 2004 WCF, but he was a passenger in the 2010 run to the WCF. He had some really pedestrian numbers for a starting goalie on a conference finalist that year.

Hiller's vertigo happened at the end of the 2010-11 season, and he never quite seemed the same after

 

[SladeWilson23]

I don't buy that those numbers accurately reflect what's going on. I believe HD chances as they're recorded are about position on the ice. There's far more that goes into it including the space the shooter has, angle and direction of puck, rebound or not, cross ice or not, etc. I think this is what xGF tried to take into account (and thus expected save percentage). It should be obvious watching games that there's large differences between the actual high end chances teams give up. The number of breakdowns for bottom 5 teams can be astounding at times.

Yea I understand all of that. Corsica I know definitely takes all of that into account when calculating HD chances. Although I got those numbers off of Natural Stat Trick, and I am unsure how they determine HD chances.

Regardless, no matter what any shot attempt from close range is always dangerous. It might not register as a HD scoring chance, but you never ever want to allow a team to take shots from close range no matter how well defended your net is.

Besides that, even just using your numbers, 13 is 44% more than 9. That adds up over the course of a year.

But my point was that the league is incredibly tight. When 1 and 31 is separated by only 4 HD chances per 60, that's close enough to determine that essentially all teams will face and generate equal number of chances. You can look at it as a 44% difference, but in this case that 44% is still just marginal.

This year teams are giving up between 28.7 and 36.6 shots per game. That's a 27.5% difference between the highest and lowest, which is smaller than the 44.4% difference between HD chances

You're using SOG, which is not what I'm talking about. Shot attempts is. Teams are averaging between 51.67 and 66.39 shot attempts per 60 minutes in all situations.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Crawford definetly needs to be in discussion

He was snubbed IMO in 2015-16 for Vezina nod when he finished 5th behind Quick and Luongo (Who he had better stats then)

And anyone who has watched Hawks this year has seen him bail out a pretty average to medicore team most nights

His stats on this year
11-7-1 with 2.21 GAA , .933 sv pct and 2 shutouts

 

[Irishguy42]

Probably because even when Lundqvist was the best in the league Rangers fans were comparing him to the likes of Brodeur, Roy and Hasek and he doesn't even deserve to hold their jockstraps.

 

[Ainec]

there's really no overrated goalie

maybe rinne...

 

[BMOK33]

Probably because even when Lundqvist was the best in the league Rangers fans were comparing him to the likes of Brodeur, Roy and Hasek and he doesn't even deserve to hold their jockstraps.

It wasn't Lundqvist's fault that he didn't have a team that could score in the postseason in front of him. He's no Hasek but I think he's as good as Roy and maybe better than Brodeur was. He just didn't have the team in front of him nor the league style of play Brodeur had during his career

 

[135ace]

It wasn't Lundqvist's fault that he didn't have a team that could score in the postseason in front of him. He's no Hasek but I think he's as good as Roy and maybe better than Brodeur was. He just didn't have the team in front of him nor the league style of play Brodeur had during his career

You've just proven my point. Lundqvist is possibly the most overrated player in history. He hasn't won a cup largely because he gets outplayed in the playoffs by opposing goalies.

 

[BMOK33]

You've just proven my point. Lundqvist is possibly the most overrated player in history. He hasn't won a cup largely because he gets outplayed in the playoffs by opposing goalies.

Early in his career Lundqvist had a tendency to give up goals at very bad times during the postseason and sometimes not great ones like the late tying and awful 55 foot winning goal in Buffalo, the Federov goal etc. but he's done a good job getting away from that the last 5-7 years. The problem is he's getting a progressively worse roster around him

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Really don't see how Quick can be considered overrated at this point, people have been tearing down his career for years

 

[boyko10]

Underrated: Goalies that are playing really good as of right now.

Overrated: Goalies that are playing really bad as of right now.

My take is the exact opposite