News Article: Morgan: The Trouble with Tanking, Part II

[Vinny Boombatz]

Edmonton is finding out how hard it is to win with just youngsters. There has to be some veteran balance in the lineup.

We need to keep the older guys that are good: Yandle/Hanzal/obviously Doan/Boedker, etc...

What we need is two centers. I believe we've got a clone of ROR (with better offense) in Dvorak, which means we still need 1 more. Especially given that Hanzal can't play more than 60 games in a season.

Trading Vermette/Z now before the deadline for lesser value to begin losing more games is imperative. We could have the 'quickest' of turn-a-rounds if we were lucky enough to land McDavid or Eichel. I want a 13% chance at landing them rather than a 7% chance. Unless Uncle Gary has already locked us into the top spot...we're losing our best shot at 'ever' getting the 1 true 'superstar' this franchise needs.

 

[Jakey53]

I pretty much disagree. I don't really want to trade Yandle, Hanzal or Boedker.

Just try to get real assets for Vermette and Michalek.

Try to dump Erat and Korpikoski for anything at all.

Call it good and hope for the best.

That is probably the way it will play out.

 

[Jakey53]

1. Yes.

2. No.

3. Not really. I'd rather make the playoffs again. Not willing to trade youth, but I'd like to sign some key pieces and try to be creative.

I agree, but I'm a little concerned with Hanzal's health.

 

[rt]

Okay so if basically everyone pretty much agrees (excepting XX and ck) then why the bickering?

I guess we still need to see Dirty Old Man, Legend, and IPpi's survey results.

 

[Jakey53]

Okay so if basically everyone pretty much agrees (excepting XX and ck) then why the bickering?

I guess we still need to see Dirty Old Man, Legend, and IPpi's survey results.

That's what we do on these boards.

 

[Matias Maccete]

This barely qualifies as math, it's simple enough to be within most peoples grasp.

It should be yes. Sadly it seems like it isn't for some.

Double the chances of landing the top pick would be nice to have, especially if it won't cost us anything we wouldn't trade away anyway (vermette, z).

 

[MP]

1. Yes

2. No

3. Nuh-uh. It's one thing to face the reality of a given season, but writing off the following year is another. Especially this far in advance.

 

[Etch]

1. Would you like to trade Vermette and Michalek for less established, younger pieces some time before the deadline?

2. Would you like to trade Yandle and Hanzal for younger, less established pieces some time before the deadline? At the draft?

3. Heading into next season, would you like to continue focusing primarily on youth, trading older pieces, and signing fewer veteran players, all in an effort to secure a top five pick in next year's draft also?

1. Yes. Consider it an utter failure if we don't.

2. No.

3. No. Tanking makes sense this year because of two generational talents. Any other year is not worth this humiliation for a low percentage pay off, and this year is clear evidence the team can't tank properly anyway.

I'm essentially of the same mind as you, get what we can for our UFAs now, pray to Gary at the lotery, re-evaluate after the draft. What we do next depends entirely on landing McEichel or not, and I will break down if we suffer through this season and don't get at least StroMarner.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Wow. Look at what I missed overnight!

I'm going to offer my opinions here as a longtime season ticket holder, so bear with me, please.

We are not Edmonton. Edmonton is all skill and no supporting cast. We are the polar opposite - at least on offense.

Trading OEL would be catastrophic for this franchise, unless we got Sidney Crosby or someone of that caliber back. Even allowing the idea that he might be available to trade is one of Maloney's worst moves of the year.

The only way drafting Hanifin makes sense is if Yandle (and ONLY Yandle, not OEL) gets traded for the moon. Otherwise, there is no other call that this team should make than to draft a skilled forward, preferably a center, in the first round.

As for trading pieces, there is no reason not to shed the roster of its deadweight with the goal of restocking our prospect pool via the draft. Not just Vermette and Michalek, but Erat (if we can), Moss, Chipchura, Korpikoski, etc. should all go if we can get picks. This team needs a culture shakeup and one thing that has been deadly clear over the past few years - the players are too comfortable. Nobody below the second line is irreplaceable - given that our second-liners are basically third- and fourth-liners everywhere else, we can get equivalent players in free agency at the drop of a hat.

And yes, I say trade Hanzal now while his value is high. Seems clear to me that his body is not going to last much longer, and when it drops off it will do so over a cliff.

We aren't even going to be close to making the playoffs - it is as close to impossible as it can be statistically represented - so if the goal is to make this team better for next season, and for the long haul, there is no upside to making sure guys like Brandon McMillin whistle while they work.

 

[Jormungandr]

I agree pretty much with everything you said Zyllyx. Especially with the bit about Hanzal. I love Marty but its getting to the point where he will start missing 30+ games a season. His value is sky high right now. I would cash in on it.

 

[AZviaNJ]

1. Yes, sooner the better.

2. Yes to Hanzal now...I fear he's breaking down and big 27 yr old injury prone guys don't mysteriously get healthy as they get older. I would jump at Horvat trade if Van is willing to part with him. No to Yandle.

3. No, they have enough pieces to be competitive, no reason they can't be next year's version of the Flames. Teams are similar.

Re: Morgan article, this was on the heels of Twitter debate the previous night where someone was pushing for the Coyotes to tank. As RT said, coaches/players don't tank (especially Tip and Doan)..but that seemed to be lost on some in that debate.

 

[Desert Ice 11]

1. Would you like to trade Vermette and Michalek for less established, younger pieces some time before the deadline?

2. Would you like to trade Yandle and Hanzal for younger, less established pieces some time before the deadline? At the draft?

3. Heading into next season, would you like to continue focusing primarily on youth, trading older pieces, and signing fewer veteran players, all in an effort to secure a top five pick in next year's draft also?

1: Yes, we have enough veterans up front. Yandle and OEL have been around long enough to take a leadership role.

2 : This team has been poor without either of those but is that because there is lack of talent else where? I'd trade them if the value was there.

3 : I would like a steady transition. Getting rid of old soggy vets that don't do **** through attrition

 

[BUX7PHX]

He really did not make a compelling argument from a stats perspective the way the article was written. He undersells the value of being 29th in the league compared to 28th.

Let's look at what the probability is of finishing in the top 2 for each pick, starting with #30 until #28:

30th: 100% - Even if you don't win the lottery, your team has the next worst record, so you automatically have a 20% chance of picking 1st and 80% chance of picking 2nd

29th: 33.5% - 13.5% chance of picking first, with a 20% chance that 30th team picks 1st and your team picks 2nd

28th: 11.5% - if you have the 3rd worst record, the only chance of getting to the top 2 is you chance of winning the draft lottery

So basically, the difference between 30th and 29th is you lose 66.5% of your odds of being in the top 2. Between 29th and 28th is losing 65.67% of your odds.
((33.5-11.5)/33.5) for the math peeps.

So, with each successive difference, we lose a smaller fraction of those odds:
28th: 11.5% chance of 1st pick
27th: 9.5%
26th: 8.5%
25th: 7.5%
24th: 6.5%
23rd: 6.0%

So, if a team finishes 23rd instead of 29th at the end of the year, they are losing 7.5% of their chance to gain the overall top pick, but they are losing 82.1% of their odds of being in the top 2. I think that he tried to get too cute and relay back to just the #1 pick (of which a 7.5% difference is not that big). But when compared to a finish in the bottom 2 (with 2 high value players), that skews the stats quite mightily...

 

[SniperHF]

I believe that the odds of this team becoming sustainably good are higher with as high a percentage shot at McDavid as possible over the chances of this team actually successfully develop our current crop + whatever the hell we draft this year into a winning team within 5 years. Call it battered Coyotes fan syndrome or whatever. I have absolutely no confidence we are going anywhere through normal-tier blue chip prospects and developing them.

1. Would you like to trade Vermette and Michalek for less established, younger pieces some time before the deadline?

2. Would you like to trade Yandle and Hanzal for younger, less established pieces some time before the deadline? At the draft?

3. Heading into next season, would you like to continue focusing primarily on youth, trading older pieces, and signing fewer veteran players, all in an effort to secure a top five pick in next year's draft also?

1. Duh

2. Yandle no, Hanzal for a slight overpayment. Sick of his injuries. If we continue to rely on him as a #2 it will burn us.

3. No.

 

[Kaibur]

1. Would you like to trade Vermette and Michalek for less established, younger pieces some time before the deadline?

2. Would you like to trade Yandle and Hanzal for younger, less established pieces some time before the deadline? At the draft?

3. Heading into next season, would you like to continue focusing primarily on youth, trading older pieces, and signing fewer veteran players, all in an effort to secure a top five pick in next year's draft also?

1. Yes. Well before the deadline. Like a month ago.

2. No to Yandle. Hanzal is a definite maybe, but the return has to be exceptional and we have to find some center depth from elsewhere. If they think that Gaudet or someone else is close to earning a shutdown role, I'd be a lot more open to it.

3. I'd like to continue focusing on youth with the understanding that we may still miss the playoffs next year. I wouldn't mind being a bubble team and just missing; we'd still get a few balls in the lottery and our youth would get some valuable experience while Doan is still leading the squad.


I fundamentally disagree with XX's strategy of burning it to the ground. I think this can be a short term turn around that will take us to the upper echelons of the league, with just a little bit of luck. This club has had very little luck since the relocation. It's time for our luck to turn.

We've never been good at developing our own forward prospects into impact players. We need to draft a player whose talent can make him an impact player despite our piss poor development history. McDavid and Eichel are obvious choices. Can Strome and Marner avoid Turris-esque plateaus?

Morgan's simply a mouthpiece for the organization. His mediocrity just happens to be better than most of the other "journalistic" trash written locally about the Yotes.

 

[IPreferPi]

1. Would you like to trade Vermette and Michalek for less established, younger pieces some time before the deadline?

2. Would you like to trade Yandle and Hanzal for younger, less established pieces some time before the deadline? At the draft?

3. Heading into next season, would you like to continue focusing primarily on youth, trading older pieces, and signing fewer veteran players, all in an effort to secure a top five pick in next year's draft also?

1. Duh. The sooner, the better.

2. No to Yandle. In general, no on Hanzal, but open to a move if we're getting a big shutdown center back, e.g a Horvat.

3. Not really. Make moves for vets that provide value on multiple dimensions, make a run for the playoffs. But don't mortgage the future too badly in the process. No to a complete firebombing of our core.

 

[XX]

I pretty much disagree. I don't really want to trade Yandle, Hanzal or Boedker.

Just try to get real assets for Vermette and Michalek.

Try to dump Erat and Korpikoski for anything at all.

Call it good and hope for the best.

The definition of punting on 4th and 1.

I find it hard to believe that you genuinely have faith in the core of this team after being so disgusted with their play. I can understand Boedker, as he's still cost controlled, but Hanzal and Yandle will never be worth more to outside teams and worth less to the Coyotes. This is the window. It is entirely possible that McDavid turns this team around enough to where they squeak into the playoffs. What if Hanzal misses 30+ games next year? What if Yandle won't sign yet the Coyotes are clearly in the playoff hunt? You'd lose him for nothing.

Scorching the roster gets you the most potential - the brightest future. People seem to be willfully ignoring that it'd be harder to do worse than the current team. It is entirely possible that a team minus Hanzal and Yandle, but with a few key signings and the returned forwards, is much better than any previous Coyote team. And you've still got those juicy returns.

If the offers aren't there, don't trade them just for the sake of trading them. It's not a firesale. But I have to believe that Yandle and Hanzal would be two of the most appealing assets to hit the market in recent years, and would have the returns to match.

Standing pat and missing McDavid shouldn't be an option. You miss him while doing nothing abd this team is probably going to suck ass next year anyways. Trade guys for great value and avoid being painted into that corner altogether.

 

[rt]

Good points, X. I'm just too timid for it.

 

[Etch]

That's what I was calling for at the beginning of the season. What ever we do now will be too little too late, unfortunately. DM waited wayyyy too long. If Hanzal/Yandle are moving it might as well be at the draft, at least then we will know if we're getting McDavid or not and can act accordingly.

Don sitting on his hands, saying big changes are coming, then waiving Chip and make no actual moves ruined the serious chance we had at being the next face club of the NHL. All our hopes are now in the ping pong balls and Uncle Gary.

 

[CC96]

1. Would you like to trade Vermette and Michalek for less established, younger pieces some time before the deadline?

2. Would you like to trade Yandle and Hanzal for younger, less established pieces some time before the deadline? At the draft?

3. Heading into next season, would you like to continue focusing primarily on youth, trading older pieces, and signing fewer veteran players, all in an effort to secure a top five pick in next year's draft also?

1. Yes

2. Yes, if we can get a good return.

3. Depends on what we can do during the offseason (i.e. acquire good players via cap-dumps). I think to be a true contender, we're going to need to rebuild for at least 2-3 years, otherwise we might just squeak into the playoffs for a few years if everything goes perfect, only to end up right back in the situation we're in right now.

 

[Sinurgy]

Standing pat and missing McDavid shouldn't be an option.

Ultimately this is why I disagree with you. Even if the Coyotes "burn it to the ground" as you say, there's still a very good chance they miss out on McDavid.

 

[XX]

Even if the Coyotes "burn it to the ground" as you say, there's still a very good chance they miss out on McDavid.

... exactly. In that scenario, it's even more important that they sell off now.

The options are:
1. Attempted quick turnaround with McDavid
2. Be ****** with the players we have now next year
3. Be ****** without the players we have now next year, but with a ton of upside via trades

 

[RemoAZ]

I don't see any downside in dumping all the vets we can right now.

We get to evaluate some of our youth.
The team gets more interesting to watch.
We get assets for the future.
It most likely helps our draft position.
Probably helps a bit financially by dumping salaries.

Where are the negatives?

 

[Sinurgy]

... exactly. In that scenario, it's even more important that they sell off now.

The options are:
1. Attempted quick turnaround with McDavid
2. Be ****** with the players we have now next year
3. Be ****** without the players we have now next year, but with a ton of upside via trades

You don't have to stoop to option 3 to have a ton of upside. They already have Domi, Perlini and Dvorak in the queue right now, after the draft they will at a minimum add someone like Marner or Strome to that mix as well.

 

[XX]

You don't have to stoop to option 3 to have a ton of upside. They already have Domi, Perlini and Dvorak in the queue right now, after the draft they will at a minimum add someone like Marner or Strome to that mix as well.

Perlini and Dvorak shouldn't be in the NHL next year, and they are far from a sure thing. Marner and Strome won't be either. There is no scenario where the Coyotes drastically improve next year. McDavid would marginally improve the team, but it'd still be pretty flawed.

Every team hopes their 1st rounders trickle in. The Coyotes need more than just one player a year to get this back on track. Trade the older core for a younger one.