News Article: Morgan: The Trouble with Tanking, Part II

[The Feckless Puck]

http://www.foxsports.com/arizona/story/the-trouble-with-tanking-part-ii-020415

There is an argument floating around that even if the Coyotes can't finish 30th or 29th, they should finish as low as possible to get as talented a forward as possible to add to this group. The problem with that is twofold. There is no consensus on the players who come after McDavid and Eichel with the possible exception of Noah Hanifin. He's a defenseman. Many Coyotes fans cringe at the idea of drafting another defenseman, but GM Don Maloney made it abundantly clear he is willing to draft a defenseman if the team does not finish No. 1 or No. 2 and that position could certainly use improvements given the way the Coyotes have defended this season.

If we draft a defenseman in the first round I am going to slit my freaking wrists.

The problem with our defense is less skill than it is veteran presence. Take away Michalek and Yandle and our average age is in the low 20s. WE DON'T NEED ANOTHER DEFENSEMAN. We need skilled forwards.

Beyond that... well, I guess as long as the guys in the room are having fun, it's okay for our team to continue to be streaky, mediocre, and on the outside looking in. BRAVO. I mean it. BRAVO. I'll just continue cheering without reupping my season tix, thanks.

Click to read more...

 

[SniperHF]

His point about players/coaches not tanking is fine/obvious.

But there is basically no argument for his first point. Sorry Craig, I want the ping pong balls. Not angling for the #3 pick over the #5 pick here. That "small" percentage difference for a shot at the #1 is a better chance at getting an franchise defining player then this team has had in a long time. Maybe ever.

 

[XX]

If there is no consensus on forwards beyond McDavid and Eichel, that means the projections on those forwards are in doubt so how can anyone say with any certainty that drafting 27th vs. drafting 23rd matters?

Craig is being really dumb here. First, that wouldn't be the correct way to say fourth versus eighth. Second, there is a consensus top 5, and after that it opens up considerably. If Craig doesn't understand how much better a fit for this team Strome and Marner are over guys like Werenski, Crouse, Rantanen etc... then he shouldn't be opining about the draft.

The whole article is essentially one big invocation of the Oilers argument. It's stupid and lazy. Worse yet, it completely ignores the largely listless play the past three years that has gotten the Coyotes to this point.

I expect a more nuanced take from a legit beat writer. I worry because Morgan's take is often a regurgitation of what management is telling him. Maybe it wasn't the plan and they really are that dumb.

 

[Muppet]

If we end up with 3rd overall and Maloney drafts Hanifin, I will personally fly the 14 hours to the US and shove my size 16 boot so far up Don's ass he'll be crapping rubber for weeks.

Feel free to pass that one on, Craig.

 

[Desert Ice 11]

Absolute garbage Craig, garbage.

 

[IPreferPi]

Normally Craig is a pretty solid guy (though the standards aren't that high - Sarah McLellan is the queen of deferential softballs), but that is definitely one of his more infuriating articles. This is something I'd expect more from Five for Howling.

 

[CC96]

I like Craig, I really do. Usually his opinions are spot on, but we need a top line/franchise forward in the worst possible way. I mean, how many top-pairing, left side defensemen and prospects does a team need?

 

[MP]

This is the work of a man who would take bamboo shoots under his toenails before he'd risk losing his access to the team. Makes total sense. The market for sportswriters isn't exactly booming. If he, as a professional, has to grab his ankles periodically in order to continue getting paid to write about sports, fine. No one has any right to judge him for it, if that's where his priorities lie. We've all made sacrifices at one time or another. There are worse things than waking up at 3 A.M. and realizing your life's work amounts to no more than a certain kind of prostitution. Happens all too often, and to more or less decent people.

But if his column represents the point of view of the front office--the honest, the real point of view of upper management--this franchise is finished in Arizona. It's impossible for us to know at this point whether or not that is, in fact, the plan, but who can say?

 

[The Feckless Puck]

But if his column represents the point of view of the front office--the honest, the real point of view of upper management--this franchise is finished in Arizona. It's impossible for us to know at this point whether or not that is, in fact, the plan, but who can say?

Yeah, it really is. The fans we have right now have stuck through a mountain of excrement that few other hockey fans will ever have to face - but we've done it with the understanding that someday we'll be rewarded for our loyalty.

If business-as-usual is an acceptance of mediocrity as "good enough" then this franchise will never survive in this market, nor will it deserve to.

 

[ck26]

I follow Sarah on twitter for game day stuff but these types of opinion pieces are useless to me because rt and XX and Mosby and the rest of you write better ones. Craig's article is fine if you only think about the Coyotes for the 2.5 hours during games, but the discourse on here is clearly at a higher level.

Usually.

Re: drafting a defenseman. Not happening. If Maloney is trying to shop the pick, the threat of him taking Hanifin might influence someone else's behavior. That's all it is. Just keeping that mystery threat out there.

Hopefully.

Anyway ... back to the roster/draft threads where these discussions are a really happening ...

 

[Jakey53]

http://www.foxsports.com/arizona/story/the-trouble-with-tanking-part-ii-020415



If we draft a defenseman in the first round I am going to slit my freaking wrists.

The problem with our defense is less skill than it is veteran presence. Take away Michalek and Yandle and our average age is in the low 20s. WE DON'T NEED ANOTHER DEFENSEMAN. We need skilled forwards.

Beyond that... well, I guess as long as the guys in the room are having fun, it's okay for our team to continue to be streaky, mediocre, and on the outside looking in. BRAVO. I mean it. BRAVO. I'll just continue cheering without reupping my season tix, thanks.

I have no problem taking a Dman, especially if it's Hanifan. We can always trade another Dman for a forward.

 

[rt]

Everybody already knows that coaches and players don't tank. There are zero people who fail to understand this. So that qualifies about half of the article as pointless.

Then he fails to understand how numbers work. Saying 7.5 points is an insignificant difference between 6 and 13.5? That's more than double! So that qualifies the other half of the article as just stupid.

This is a stupid and pointless article.

 

[Mosby]

I'm okay with drafting Hanifin if there is a deal on the draft floor involving OEL, Yandle, or Gormley that returns a major asset at forward.

 

[IPreferPi]

We can always trade another Dman for a forward.

Always easier said than done.

 

[cobra427]

Everybody already knows that coaches and players don't tank. There are zero people who fail to understand this. So that qualifies about half of the article as pointless.

Then he fails to understand how numbers work. Saying 7.5 points is an insignificant difference between 6 and 13.5? That's more than double! So that qualifies the other half of the article as just stupid.

This is a stupid and pointless article.

The way he lays out the article, sure coaches and players do not tank. They are playing with some pride and for their next contract or even job in the NHL.

His math analysis is flawed though. He is correct on the percentage chances to draft in the first 2 positions. Where he is wrong is on the payoff. Our chance might only be 7% better, but the player we would be drafting is not 7% better. The player we are drafting might be 30-50% better. This is why a better draft position with the top 2 players being so much better than everyone else is so important. I understand the odds but it is the payoff that matters.

 

[IPreferPi]

His math analysis is flawed though. He is correct on the percentage chances to draft in the first 2 positions. Where he is wrong is on the payoff. Our chance might only be 7% better, but the player we would be drafting is not 7% better. The player we are drafting might be 30-50% better. This is why a better draft position with the top 2 players being so much better than everyone else is so important. I understand the odds but it is the payoff that matters.

Expected value FTW.

 

[TheLegend]

Wow.... has everyone on this board had "tank on the brain" for so long that they've lost of their sense of reality?

Reality is boys.... and that's a main point of Morgan's article..... nobody is going to overtake Buffalo. And sitting in spots 23-29 really doesn't change the odds all that much of landing in the top two. It's a crap shoot.... and statistically it doesn't make much sense to inject a losing attitude into a team and make it all that much worse just for a couple extra ping pong balls.

That is.... unless you want to be like Edmonton.

 

[IPreferPi]

Wow.... has everyone on this board had "tank on the brain" for so long that they've lost of their sense of reality?

Reality is boys.... and that's a main point of Morgan's article..... nobody is going to overtake Buffalo. And sitting in spots 23-29 really doesn't change the odds all that much of landing in the top two. It's a crap shoot.... and statistically it doesn't make much sense to inject a losing attitude into a team and make it all that much worse just for a couple extra ping pong balls.

That is.... unless you want to be like Edmonton.

Newflash - there is a huge difference between 6% and 13.5% mathematically. And not so long ago (circa November/early December) Buffalo was a bubble team in the East ahead of us in the reverse standings before taking their current plummet.

For every Edmonton there's a Pittsburgh/Los Angeles/Chicago. But Edmonton's problem wasn't drafting high, it was moronic management/coaching that failed to insulate their young talent with capable veteran leadership. Maloney despite being conservative in pulling trades has shown time and again he can find good veterans.

 

[TheLegend]

The way he lays out the article, sure coaches and players do not tank. They are playing with some pride and for their next contract or even job in the NHL.

His math analysis is flawed though. He is correct on the percentage chances to draft in the first 2 positions. Where he is wrong is on the payoff. Our chance might only be 7% better, but the player we would be drafting is not 7% better. The player we are drafting might be 30-50% better. This is why a better draft position with the top 2 players being so much better than everyone else is so important. I understand the odds but it is the payoff that matters.

"Might be"..

There in lies the question. Is it worth spending the rest of the season injecting a losing attitude on the presumption that you "might" get someone who "might" be better?

May as well throw the statistical math right out the window.

 

[IPreferPi]

"Might be"..

There in lies the question. Is it worth spending the rest of the season injecting a losing attitude on the presumption that you "might" get someone who "might" be better?

May as well throw the statistical math right out the window.

Throw the uncertainty out the window, McEichel will be better than any other forward drafted between 3-9, and would make an impact immediately.

 

[TheLegend]

Newflash - there is a huge difference between 6% and 13.5% mathematically. And not so long ago (circa November/early December) Buffalo was a bubble team in the East ahead of us in the reverse standings before taking their current plummet.

For every Edmonton there's a Pittsburgh/Los Angeles/Chicago. But Edmonton's problem wasn't drafting high, it was moronic management/coaching that failed to insulate their young talent with capable veteran leadership. Maloney despite being conservative in pulling trades has shown time and again he can find good veterans.

Newsflash.... I KNOW about statistics and probabilities and the like. They don't mean squat. You might as well play Powerball where you can win once every six times but can end up taking a 100 draws before you win anything. Las Vegas makes its living off people who think they can conquer statistics. It a fool's errand.

Also.... I've spent the last several months reading nothing but whining how Tippet ruins young talent because they get "overcooked" or refuses to give them any ice time.

Everyone does nothing but complain.

And people think BoH is hostile.

 

[KG]

I think GMDM would draft Hafanin at #3, and then maybe trade Yandle the same day.

 

[IPreferPi]

Newsflash.... I KNOW about statistics and probabilities and the like. They don't mean squat. You might as well play Powerball where you can win once every six times but can end up taking a 100 draws before you win anything. Las Vegas makes its living off people who think they can conquer statistics. It a fool's errand.

Sorry, but you know **** about statistics. That is all.

 

[TheLegend]

Throw the uncertainty out the window, McEichel will be better than any other forward drafted between 3-9, and would make an impact immediately.

And the only sure fire way you can guarantee a McDavid or Eichei to be at the absolute bottom in 30th. And they aren't going to get there in spite of all the harping.

But let's say they land 29th. Any team who ends up in 23-28 could easily leap into one of the first two spots. If they get the first, then 30th gets the 2nd pick and you still lose.

Then what.... you spend half a season creating a losing attitude amongst guys you still have to keep around? Guys who escaped Edmonton have said they have a team wide confidence problem there.

 

[TheLegend]

Sorry, but you know **** about statistics. That is all.

Keep drinkin' the koolaid then.