Morgan Rielly vs. Shea Theodore

[Krewe]

I know reilly doesn't play super tough minutes, but Theadore is one of the most sheltered DMen in the league and has only been better once

 

[WetcoastOrca]

They’re both below average defensively so that’s a wash but Theodore had the better offensive season by quite a bit so I’d go with him. Watching him in the playoffs he really controlled the play offensively every time he was on the ice in a way that few D in the league can, although he was definitely an adventure in his own end. I think Rielly bounces back a bit offensively but it looks like the one really high offensive season he had was an outlier so I think Theodore will have better offensive numbers going forward.
Both need a solid defensive type partner to be successful though.

 

[LeafGrief]

Rielly has his team's system and elite offensive talent to thank for his production as well and he is far from impressive defensively!

So what aspect of Theodore's game are we deducting points from? Considering that he plays for Vegas who are a legit contender and I'd bet about $1000 you'd have above the Leafs in power rankings.

I know reilly doesn't play super tough minutes, but Theadore is one of the most sheltered DMen in the league and has only been better once

Rielly didn't play the toughest minutes last year, but he played among the hardest minutes in the league for years under Babcock and while paired with Hainsey. I'm not trying to sell Rielly as a defensive stud, but QoC has usually been argued in his favour.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

You couldn't be more wrong lol. He played injured all year and has had absolute garbage D partners his entire career. He'll be playing with Brodie this year and Rielly looks fully healthy. He will finish as a top 10 D man.

Advanced stats, lol.

Plenty of players end up playing injured. Not really a good excuse for his very poor play.

 

[AvroArrow]

Plenty of players end up playing injured. Not really a good excuse for his very poor play.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Voted Rielly, but see no issue with anyone voting Theodore.

Only wrong answer would be the absolute goofs saying its not close one way or the other.

Always funny when fanbases pull this card in a poll where their player is clearly outmatched.

 

[LeafGrief]

They’re both below average defensively so that’s a wash but Theodore had the better offensive season by quite a bit so I’d go with him. I think Rielly bounces back a bit but it looks like the one really high offensive season he had was an outlier so I think Theodore will have better offensive numbers going forward.
Both need a solid defensive type partner to be successful though.

19-20 season results

Reilly - .574 ppg (27p in 47 games)
Theodore - .647 ppg (46p in 71 games)

.07 points per game is "quite a bit"? Okay. If you'll indulge the "pace" argument, that's 53 points in 82 games for Theodore and 47 in 82 for Rielly. Not sure I'm buying that Theodore's offense was better by "quite a bit". I also find it funny that within one season you dismiss Rielly's best results as an outlier and accept Theodore's results as his obvious new normal. Rielly plays a 40 game season battling injuries and now he's worse offensively than a 50 point guy?

Going to need some better analysis to support your conclusions there dude.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

19-20 season results

Reilly - .574 ppg (27p in 47 games)
Theodore - .647 ppg (46p in 71 games)

.07 points per game is "quite a bit"? Okay. If you'll indulge the "pace" argument, that's 53 points in 82 games for Theodore and 47 in 82 for Rielly. Not sure I'm buying that Theodore's offense was better by "quite a bit". I also find it funny that within one season you dismiss Rielly's best results as an outlier and accept Theodore's results as his obvious new normal. Rielly plays a 40 game season battling injuries and now he's worse offensively than a 50 point guy?

Going to need some better analysis to support your conclusions there dude.

Yes. I think 13% more points over 82 games and 3 times more goals is quite a bit. My analysis is fine.

 

[Brown Cat]

Spoiler

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Theodore is probably a littele overrated according to these stats but he is still better. Both of them are cream of the crop offensively but Theodore doesn't give up anywhere near as much defensively.

Thank you advanced stat man

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

You couldn't be more wrong lol. He played injured all year and has had absolute garbage D partners his entire career. He'll be playing with Brodie this year and Rielly looks fully healthy. He will finish as a top 10 D man.

Advanced stats, lol.

His overall play probably wasn't expected to regress, but his actual raw production was expected to. I think you'd have to be a complete homer to expect that 20 goals and over 70 points was going to be a "typical" season for Rielly. The goal total, in particular, was going to take a massive hit considering prior to that year he'd never even scored in double digits before.

 

[LeafGrief]

Yes. I think 13% more points and 3 times more goals is quite a bit. My analysis is fine.

Six whole points. You've correctly done the math homework to figure out the 13% and goal numbers, but your conclusions of year over year stats are laughably bad. Morgan Rielly scored 20 goals in 18-19, using goal scoring between these two players is a joke.

 

[LeafGrief]

His overall play probably wasn't expected to regress, but his actual raw production was expected to. I think you'd have to be a complete homer to expect that 20 goals and over 70 points was going to be a "typical" season for Rielly. The goal total, in particular, was going to take a massive hit considering prior to that year he'd never even scored in double digits before.

Totally fair to expect that Rielly wasn't going to be a consistent 70 point player. Not gonna hit 20g very often either. He had a huge improvement in his shot between seasons in 17-18 and 18-19 though, so while he's not going to flirt with 20g very often, he's certainly much better than the 6g player that he used to be.

But if 18-19 was a career best outlier it's not very good analysis (as plenty in this thread are doing) to assume that 19-20 is back down to earth. He had 52p in 76 in 17-18, which is still (slightly) better than what Theodore did this year.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Six whole points. You've correctly done the math homework to figure out the 13% and goal numbers, but your conclusions of year over year stats are laughably bad. Morgan Rielly scored 20 goals in 18-19, using goal scoring between these two players is a joke.

No need to be so defensive just because I used the latest season to compare the two players and called Rielly’s one great season two years ago an outlier. He was on pace to score 5 goals to Theodores 16 goals and we all know from the Matthews discussion that goals are the most important factor. Also I clearly said that I expect Rielly to bounce back somewhat which makes the two closer than last seasons stats suggest. It’s a close poll but if you exclude all of the Leaf fans voting for Rielly then I think it’s pretty clear that Theodore is the better player at this point.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

I know reilly doesn't play super tough minutes, but Theadore is one of the most sheltered DMen in the league and has only been better once

There's a reason Theodore is so sheltered.

 

[Paul4587]

Morgan Rielly. Theodore is one of the most overrated dmen around at the moment.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

No need to be so defensive just because I used the latest season to compare the two players and called Rielly’s one great season two years ago an outlier. He was on pace to score 5 goals to Theodores 16 goals and we all know from the Matthews discussion that goals are the most important factor. Also I clearly said that I expect Rielly to bounce back somewhat which makes the two closer than last seasons stats suggest.

It was well documented how Reilly played injured all of last year

I think this year will be very telling as to where Reilly is, as he appears fully healthy from all reports.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

It was well documented how Reilly played injured all of last year

I think this year will be very telling as to where Reilly is, as he appears fully healthy from all reports.

Agreed. Which is why I said I expect Rielly to bounce back somewhat. I’m simply not willing to completely ignore last season as lots of players dealt with injuries.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Morgan Rielly is both better and younger. Theodore is one of the most overrated dmen around at the moment.

Theodore is younger, however at the age of 25/26, there's really no difference at this point.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Morgan Rielly is both better and younger. Theodore is one of the most overrated dmen around at the moment.

How is he younger? Theodore is almost a year and a half younger.

 

[LeafGrief]

No need to be so defensive just because I used the latest season to compare the two players and called Rielly’s one great season two years ago an outlier. He was on pace to score 5 goals to Theodores 16 goals and we all know from the Matthews discussion that goals are the most important factor. Also I clearly said that I expect Rielly to bounce back somewhat which makes the two closer than last seasons stats suggest. It’s a close poll but if you exclude all of the Leaf fans voting for Rielly then I think it’s pretty clear that Theodore is the better player at this point.

Pointing out that your analysis is terrible is called being defensive now? Lmao. The goals meaning more argument might actually hold some water if you weren't ignoring the clear best season by either player that was literally one year ago. It is painfully obvious to anyone with an ounce of critical thinking that you're ignoring last season because it's just too good for Rielly. If Rielly was going to bounce back at all, he's got two seasons under his belt better than anything Theodore has put together so far, so he bounces back better.

You even threw down the "Leafs fans aren't allowed to vote" argument. Good god man, have some self respect. Put together some actual arguments that support your conclusions and pass the sniff test. Analyze the positives and the negatives, because saying "I expect Rielly to bounce back" doesn't excuse the rest of the post being hand waiving nonsense that an eight year old could see through. If you think that Rielly is never going to score 20g again, that's a fine stance to take, but include some of your "bounce back" analysis in there. If you're trying to make a serious argument (which I am not accusing you of) it should at least try and be somewhat fair to both players. You have massively tilted towards the conclusion which you obviously picked before you began.

 

[CupInSIX]

What makes Theodore's season even more impressive is he was coming back from cancer treatment in 2019 and he kept improving.

Rielly is no slouch but people are still sleeping on Theodore it seems.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

What makes Theodore's season even more impressive is he was coming back from cancer treatment in 2019 and he kept improving.

Rielly is no slouch but people are still sleeping on Theodore it seems.

If Theodore can continue to post numbers while facing a higher QoC (like most top end Dmen) there will be no doubt who's better.

 

[Breakers]

Reading through this thread It was very interesting to learn about Theodore's usage who he has a very low percentage against "elite" competition

didnt know he was that low.
I mean he's on par with Dahlin

 

[Paul4587]

How is he younger? Theodore is almost a year and a half younger.

Ah you’re right I got my draft years mixed up, for some reason thought Theo was 2011 not 2013.