Speculation: More Moves Coming?

[JoelWarlord]

That’s not how that works. It’s cap relief, not cap space. If you don’t use it, you lose it

Correct that if you don't spend LTIR relief/pool you lose it, but if you're using in-season LTIR instead of offseason LTIR, you don't need to spend it all by opening night to maximize the benefit.

By putting Price on the active roster for opening night and then placing him on in-season LTIR, the Habs will be allowed to exceed the cap by his 10.5M minus whatever small amount they were under the cap to begin with. Then all the young guys who were papered to the AHL will get called up, and we'll be left with that ~6.7M in remaining LTIR relief to use for the rest of the season at our discretion.

 

[BaseballCoach]

At this rate wouldn’t they have to waive at least one NHL contract (not incl Harris or RHP)?

I think no longer.

I believe it works with paper-demoting Harris, Barron, and RHP, all of whom are waiver-exempt, plus one of Allen or deSmith. We can and SHOULD waive Wideman. in which case just two paper demotions will be necessary.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Gotta think this list gets bigger before it gets smaller for some more targeted trades.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Kovacevic isn't battling for a roster spot.

He had fantastic numbers for a 3rd pairing defenseman, still relatively young, and played basically the whole season for Montreal. On top of that, his ice time increased substantially down the stretch.

And Jake Evans isn't on a decline nor does he make too much money or have a lengthy term.

I think Lindstrom changes that calculus. A more seasoned, more expensive RD may be the new front runner for 6D on the roster. Kovy may be the no. 7 or rotate in and out of the lineup now.

Guhle Savard
Matheson Lidstrom
Harris/Xhekaj and Barron/Kovy

Will be a more competitive camp with 4 guys going after 2 spots. One of them is going to Laval as I doubt they carry 8 D to start the season.

I'm not including Wideman as I think he's a forgone conclusion to not be in the Habs plans moving forward.

 

[Sunfyre]

I think Lindstrom changes that calculus. A more seasoned, more expensive RD may be the new front runner for 6D on the roster. Kovy may be the no. 7 or rotate in and out of the lineup now. Can't see Lidstrom and his $3.2M contract in laval or the press box much.

Guhle Savard
Matheson Lidstrom
Harris/Xhekaj and Barron/Kovy

Will be a more competitive camp with 4 guys going after 2 spots. One of them is going to Laval as I doubt they carry 8 D to start the season.

I'm not including Wideman as I think he's a forgone conclusion to not be in the Habs plans moving forward.

3.2mil? Are you counting the retained salary of Petry to his 950t cap hit ?

 

[Captain Mountain]

View attachment 736499

Gotta think this list gets bigger before it gets smaller for some more targeted trades.

How did Montreal get their 2nd back?

 

[Sunfyre]

How did Montreal get their 2nd back?

Winnipeg gave it back to us for missing out on PLD

 

[Sterling Archer]

3.2mil? Are you counting the retained salary of Petry to his 950t cap hit ?

Sorry that was unclear. I cleaned it up.

 

[WeThreeKings]

How did Montreal get their 2nd back?

They didn't, the team is in bold. Winnipeg has it.

 

[sampollock]

means PLD is coming to MTL

 

[McGees]

Armia should go back to play in Finland.
Not even joking, he legit seems to be happier and play better there.

 

[rahad]

WOW... Almost forgot about Lias Andersson . LOL

Does he have a chance to make it with the Habs or is Laval for him?

 

[Sterling Archer]

WOW... Almost forgot about Lias Andersson . LOL

Does he have a chance to make it with the Habs or is Laval for him?

Unless he lights up camp and there's an injury or 3, I see him starting in Laval.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

The trade will allow the Canadiens to begin the season with Price on the books, and then put him on long-term injured reserve as soon as the roster deadline passes to begin the season.

“LTI isn’t a perfect situation for any team,” Hughes said during a virtual press conference Tuesday. “I know some people think it’s simple and you just use the money that player’s salary occupied, but it’s a little more complicated. Having said that, if we find opportunities again, like we did last time with Sean Monahan, where we think it’s worthwhile, we’ll do it and put ourselves in offseason LTI.

“But we think, as of right now, we’re safe to go in-season with Carey.”

Why is this important? It’s complicated, as Hughes mentioned. I have spent far too much of my time and energy trying to understand it properly ever since the 2021 season ended, and I still don’t think I’m entirely there. But the essential difference between offseason and in-season LTIR can be simplified to one basic concept, and that is flexibility.


With offseason LTIR, the Canadiens get locked into a cap number, and that number essentially means zero cap space. It’s almost like Price’s cap number just disappears, with all that’s left behind is the Canadiens having little to no cap space. With in-season LTIR, the Canadiens would make it so they are as close to the cap as possible when they designate Price, and then they would have Price’s $10.5 million in salary minus how much cap space they had when he was placed on LTIR as cap space to use during the season.

Simple enough? Didn’t think so.

Again, if you want the simplified version, think of it in terms of taking the path with more flexibility built in and avoiding the path that is more rigid and restrictive.

Except as of right now, the Canadiens are over the $83.5 million salary cap with Price on the roster. But what’s important to remember is they have six players who are exempt from waivers: Juraj Slafkovský, Rafaël Harvey-Pinard, Arber Xhekaj, Kaiden Guhle, Justin Barron and Jordan Harris. That means the Canadiens can send some of those players down to the AHL on paper in order to file their roster to the league and make it cap-compliant, and then bring them back up once Price has been placed on LTIR.

Yes exactly. In your scenario he stays on the active roster until they find a player who will eat into his contract. At that point the trade or whatever has to happen simultaneously.

What I am trying to explain (poorly) is that placing a player on LTIR does not create cap space. It only allows you to use what you use when he goes on LTIR.

 

[CrAzYNiNe]

Correct that if you don't spend LTIR relief/pool you lose it, but if you're using in-season LTIR instead of offseason LTIR, you don't need to spend it all by opening night to maximize the benefit.

By putting Price on the active roster for opening night and then placing him on in-season LTIR, the Habs will be allowed to exceed the cap by his 10.5M minus whatever small amount they were under the cap to begin with. Then all the young guys who were papered to the AHL will get called up, and we'll be left with that ~6.7M in remaining LTIR relief to use for the rest of the season at our discretion.

This is not how I understand the rule. The moment Price goes on LTIR, you have to have the cap space used. I remember when Arizona traded for players that were LTIR and 25M under the cap. They didn’t get 25M+LTIR player salary in cap space. They only had their cap space

 

[Sunfyre]

WOW... Almost forgot about Lias Andersson . LOL

Does he have a chance to make it with the Habs or is Laval for him?

He was signed primarily to provide Centre depth for Laval with Maillet as the top 2 centers. In case he plays significant stretches for the main club it most likely means injuries piled up again

 

[LyricalLyricist]

View attachment 736499

Gotta think this list gets bigger before it gets smaller for some more targeted trades.

Probably but who would we trade away that has value?

At this point we haven't signed anyone new. Only thing is maybe getting paid to take on contracts but there's a limit how much we can do.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If only he could figure out a way to get rid of Gallagher.

A story for another day (season). Wait till the cap grows and he has less term left. I don't think he finishes that contract with the Habs.

Trying to move him now requires us to take back a similar cap hit and probably someone we value less than Gallagher. Remember the Lucic/Neal flip? Not worth us moving Gallagher for another contract. Learn to live with it during our rebuild/transition years. It's not really a big deal until Dach needs a new contract.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Probably but who would we trade away that has value?

At this point we haven't signed anyone new. Only thing is maybe getting paid to take on contracts but there's a limit how much we can do.

I would imagine that DeSmith/Lindstrom have enough value for a team with cap space to take them on and we don't have to take back a contract? Maybe we get a 4th or something like that?

DeSmith+Lindstrom = $2.75M. Are we going to use the last retention spot on DeSmith?

Where do you think Lindstrom fits on our roster if he stays?

 

[Miller Time]

Unless he lights up camp and there's an injury or 3, I see him starting in Laval.

Both of which are quite highly possible.

I suspect he's coming to camp focused on staying. He had a great AHL season last year, has the tools to be an NHL regular, and we've got pretty open competition for forward spots.

Will be an exciting camp/pre-season

 

[Habs Halifax]

Correct that if you don't spend LTIR relief/pool you lose it, but if you're using in-season LTIR instead of offseason LTIR, you don't need to spend it all by opening night to maximize the benefit.

By putting Price on the active roster for opening night and then placing him on in-season LTIR, the Habs will be allowed to exceed the cap by his 10.5M minus whatever small amount they were under the cap to begin with. Then all the young guys who were papered to the AHL will get called up, and we'll be left with that ~6.7M in remaining LTIR relief to use for the rest of the season at our discretion.

The other layer to this is if Slaf breaks out and earns some performance bonues. That could complicate the cap for next season. It's best to have Price on LTIR after the season starts. That gives us more than enough in season flexibility.

We have $1.17M of carryover bonuses from last season already. It could grow higher with Slaf and Guhle still on their ELC.

WOW... Almost forgot about Lias Andersson . LOL

Does he have a chance to make it with the Habs or is Laval for him?

He would have steal a job from RHP or Slaf IMO.

 

[Sunfyre]

I would imagine that DeSmith/Lindstrom have enough value for a team with cap space to take them on and we don't have to take back a contract? Maybe we get a 4th or something like that?

DeSmith+Lindstrom = $2.75M. Are we going to use the last retention spot on DeSmith?

Where do you think Lindstrom fits on our roster if he stays?

I hope DeSmith can be moved without retention even if it means smaller/minimal return. Hanging on to the last retention slot could be more beneficial for the trade deadline, in case Dvorak/Savard or Armia ( don’t bet on that one lol) have a “carrier year” and there’s a market for one of them.

Next use would be to retain as a third party ala Bonino last year.

Retaining on Monahan doesn’t make a lot of sense. With a 2mil cap hit it won’t make a huge difference in return. There will be injuries and players on LTIR on other teams so 2 mil should be movable. In his case the only important thing is that he’s healthy. His production will be there as a lock for top 6 minutes and 1PP

 

[JoelWarlord]

This is not how I understand the rule. The moment Price goes on LTIR, you have to have the cap space used. I remember when Arizona traded for players that were LTIR and 25M under the cap. They didn’t get 25M+LTIR player salary in cap space. They only had their cap space

That's because Arizona was still under the actual salary cap, even with LTIR included. LTIR pools only come into play when a team would otherwise be over the cap by replacing that player's salary. If you're spending 50M on your active roster and have 25M on LTIR, the LTIR money doesn't give you any cap benefit as the combined total is still 75 which is below the cap. This is why every October you'll see tweets about teams getting within 10 thousand dollars of the cap before they place their LTIR guy (eg. Tampa with Seabrook) on LTIR, as this allows you to maximize the financial benefit by getting almost the entire contract as LTIR room rather than just whatever fraction of the contract it puts you over the cap by.

You don't have to spend the LTIR dollars the second they become available, the intention of the rule is to allow a team to spend over the cap to replace a long term injured player and it would be silly to design the rule in such a way where if a guy blows his knee out midseason his team is SOL unless they can manage to pull off a trade in the next 12 hours before the player goes on LTIR or something.

In the Price example, if the Habs send enough guys down to the AHL to get to say 72.5M, they can then add Price's contract to the active roster and go into the season at 83M against the 83.5M cap. Then Price's 10.5M can go on LTIR and we'd be able to use LTIR room to spend up to 93 million (10M over the cap, which is Price's 10.5M minus the 500k we were under the cap initially in this example). We'd then call up the approx 3.5-4M in contracts back from the AHL and have the remainder to spend at any time during the 23-24 season.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I hope DeSmith can be moved without retention even if it means smaller/minimal return. Hanging on to the last retention slot could be more beneficial for the trade deadline, in case Dvorak/Savard or Armia ( don’t bet on that one lol) have a “carrier year” and there’s a market for one of them.

Next use would be to retain as a third party ala Bonino last year.

Retaining on Monahan doesn’t make a lot of sense. With a 2mil cap hit it won’t make a huge difference in return. There will be injuries and players on LTIR on other teams so 2 mil should be movable. In his case the only important thing is that he’s healthy. His production will be there as a lock for top 6 minutes and 1PP

A GM will have to want that D (Harris or Lindstrom) as well as have a need for a back-up like DeSmith. Plus have the cap space to add them both. Easier said than done.

I'm sure Hughes has several different options he is tinkering with. He would have not added DeSmith if there was no plan B, or C.

Will we use the last retention spot? Possible. Who else are we trading that we need the retention spot on in the next 12 months? I think several Habs fans are guilty of wanting guys like Hoffman, Dvorak, Armia, Gallagher moved too quickly.

What would Habs fans say if we did use the last retention spot on DeSmith but then it opens up next season and we use it on Armia? I don't see major problems with this.

 

[Redux91]

WOW... Almost forgot about Lias Andersson . LOL

Does he have a chance to make it with the Habs or is Laval for him?

Caufield-Suzuki-Newhook
RHP-Dach-Anderson
Slaf-Monahan-Gallagher
Pezz-Evans-Armia

As you can see, we can barely fit Dvorak and Ylonen into this line up.. Andersson is Laval 1C.

And I just don't know how Armia is still on this team god.