Montreal Canadiens are going to be contenders next season?

[Satanphonehome]

3 scoring lines ? Montreal have 1 line? C'mon

Here's the Panthers 3rd line, and their points projection

McCann (29 pts), Bjugstad (40 pts), Marchessault (45 pts)

Here's the Lightning 3rd line, and their points projection:

Namestnikov (43 pts), Filppula (37 pts), Callahan (33 pts)

Let's compare it to Montreal 2nd line, and tell me how Florida's lines are better:

Lekhonen (31 pts), Plekanec (54 pts), Radulov (62 pts)

So your argument is based on three sets of made up numbers?

I wish I Knew how many points a given player will get like you do.

But I'm pretty sure Radulov and Lehkonen combined for zero NHL points last year.

 

[Adam Michaels]

There is no way Montreal could be considered a contender. All I see from the fan base is a litany of "what ifs" and no depth whatsover ... just a couple of injuries from a spiraling black hole of a season. Montreal is not a cup contender ... its a team in contention for the 6th-8th playoff seed. Pens/Caps/Panthers/Islanders/Bolts are easily better. Even if Montreal makes the playoffs whoever they play in the two tiers above them will dispatch them easily.

First Tier: Bolts, Pens, Caps
Second Tier: Panthers, Islanders,
Third Tier: Detroit, Montreal, Philly, Rangers, etc.
Fourth Tier: etc. etc.
Fifth Tier: TML

Let's compare 1st and 2nd tier teams with the Canadiens, shall we? I calculated the total points from the lock-out season from 2012-13 to 2015-16, along with their regular season standing and playoff performance.

From best to worst:
Team: Total points from 2012-13 to 2015-16
(Regular Season Standing)
(Playoff Depth)

Pittsburgh Penguins: 383 pts.
(2013: 1st in East) (2014: 1st in Div.) (2015: Wild Card) (2016: 2nd in Div.)
(2013: East Final) (2014: 2nd Round) (2015: 1st Round) (2016: Champions)

Washington Capitals: 368 pts.
(2013: 3rd in East) (2014:9th in East) (2015: 2nd in Div.) (2016: 1st Overall)
(2013: 1st Round) (2014: Missed PO) (2015: 2nd Round) (2016: 2nd Round)

Montreal Canadiens: 355 pts.
(2013: 2nd in East) (2014: 3rd in Div.) (2015: 1st in Div.) (2016: 13th in East)
(2013: 1st Round) (2014: East Final) (2015: 2nd Round) (2016: Missed PO)

Tampa Bay Lightning: 346 pts.
(2013: 14th in East) (2014: 2nd in Div.) (2015: 2nd in Div.) (2016: 2nd in Div.)
(2013: Missed PO) (2014: 1st Round) (2015: Cup Finals) (2016: East Final)

New York Islanders: 335 pts.
(2013: 8th in East) (2014: 14th in East) (2015: 3rd in Div.) (2016: Wild Card)
(2013: 1st Round) (2014: Missed PO) (2015: 1st Round) (2016: 2nd Round)

Florida Panthers: 296 pts.
(2013: 15th in East) (2014: 14th in East) (2015: 9th in East) (2016: 1st in Div.)
(2013: Missed PO) (2014: Missed PO) (2015: Missed PO) (2016: 1st Round)


The moral of the story is, Montreal, despite their awful season last year, remains a TOP TIER TEAM along with Pittsburgh, Washington, and Tampa Bay. And they sure as hell are above Florida and Islanders. Not to take anything away from Florida and Long Island (they are trending in the right direction). But Montreal is among the elite in the East, even with a putrid season like last year.

 

[sxvnert]

Carey Price alone is a contender. The rest of that junk is irrelevant.

 

[Drakkar]

So your argument is based on three sets of made up numbers?

I wish I Knew how many points a given player will get like you do.

But I'm pretty sure Radulov and Lehkonen combined for zero NHL points last year.

Well, it's a lot more research on my part, than just saying

"Both teams in Florida have three lines that can score, the habs have one line."

And like I said in my post, those are serious point projections. I demonstrated easily that the Habs 2nd line is more of a scoring line, than Florida or Tampa's third line.

 

[Help]

Last year the Habs allowed 232 goals on 2406 shots against for a .9036 sv%. They scored 216 goals, giving them a goal differential of -16

Let's make a few simplifying assumptions, because I want to illustrate the effect that the reinstertion of Price has on the Montreal Canadiens:
-Let's say that despite the offseason overhaul of the forward corp, they still repeat their 216 goal performance
-Let's say that once again the defense allows 2406 shots
-Let's assume that Price starts 60 games, and Montoya starts the remaining 22
-Let's assume both Price and Montoya perform at the same level they have for the past three years (Price has a .9310 sv% over that span. Montoya has .9132)

The Montreal Canadiens team sv% would come out to .9262.
2406 shots against that would result in 177 goals against, this is 55 less goals. That is a massive impact. A colossal impact. An impact that that should not be overlooked or understated. It is huge.

That would bring the goal differential from -16 all the way up to +39. Which would have ranked 3rd in the national hockey league last season. Does that make them contenders? Who's to say? Depends on how much importance you put on scoring more goals than your opponent.

There's a lot more going on here than just the addition of Carey Price, too:

-They just brought in Alex Radulov, Artturi Lehkonen, and Andrew Shaw to replace Dale Weise, Tomas Fleischmann and Lars Eller. One has to think that's a good thing

-They brought in Kirk Muller to run their powerplay. A man who has proven himself quite capable for running a successful PP. Even if you don't think highly of Muller, it's a change from the 25th ranked, 16.2% effective PP from last year. Again, one has to think that's going to help

-Alex Galchenyuk is slotted in at 1C, and presumably is going to see more than the 16:15 TOI per game that he saw last year. You guessed it, it's a good thing.

-They traded PK Subban for Shea Weber. This has been beaten into the ground. It's a bad thing. Not everything is sunshine and rainbows. I hate this trade as much as anyone, but you would be foolish to argue that this trade is enough to negate all the good that's going on

For anyone who maybe doesn't follow the Habs all that closely, don't think too much about the 22nd place finish last year. It's not indicative of who this team is.

Do not sleep on the Habs.

 

[JustGivingEr]

Last year the Habs allowed 232 goals on 2406 shots against for a .9036 sv%. They scored 216 goals, giving them a goal differential of -16

Let's make a few simplifying assumptions, because I want to illustrate the effect that the reinstertion of Price has on the Montreal Canadiens:
-Let's say that despite the offseason overhaul of the forward corp, they still repeat their 216 goal performance
-Let's say that once again the defense allows 2406 shots
-Let's assume that Price starts 60 games, and Montoya starts the remaining 22
-Let's assume both Price and Montoya perform at the same level they have for the past three years (Price has a .9310 sv% over that span. Montoya has .9132)

The Montreal Canadiens team sv% would come out to .9262.
2406 shots against that would result in 177 goals against, this is 55 less goals. That is a massive impact. A colossal impact. An impact that that should not be overlooked or understated. It is huge.

That would bring the goal differential from -16 all the way up to +39. Which would have ranked 3rd in the national hockey league last season. Does that make them contenders? Who's to say? Depends on how much importance you put on scoring more goals than your opponent.

There's a lot more going on here than just the addition of Carey Price, too:

-They just brought in Alex Radulov, Artturi Lehkonen, and Andrew Shaw to replace Dale Weise, Tomas Fleischmann and Lars Eller. One has to think that's a good thing

-They brought in Kirk Muller to run their powerplay. A man who has proven himself quite capable for running a successful PP. Even if you don't think highly of Muller, it's a change from the 25th ranked, 16.2% effective PP from last year. Again, one has to think that's going to help

-Alex Galchenyuk is slotted in at 1C, and presumably is going to see more than the 16:15 TOI per game that he saw last year. You guessed it, it's a good thing.

-They traded PK Subban for Shea Weber. This has been beaten into the ground. It's a bad thing. Not everything is sunshine and rainbows. I hate this trade as much as anyone, but you would be foolish to argue that this trade is enough to negate all the good that's going on

For anyone who maybe doesn't follow the Habs all that closely, don't think too much about the 22nd place finish last year. It's not indicative of who this team is.

Do not sleep on the Habs.

Disagree

 

[Help]

Disagree

Thwarted again!

 

[izzy]

Thwarted again!

You also could have just said "Price"

 

[zeeto]

So you are implying that Price is an average goalie? Ignoring the fact that the leading hockey minds in the world all think he is the, if not one of the, best? Thanks for padding my ignore list yet again!

I say this as a longtime Habs fan, Price hasn't played a meaningful game in 9-10 months, let alone played with the rigors of an NHL schedule. I'm hopeful he goes back to his '14-15 form, but until he's playing real NHL games nothing is for certain. Call it pessimistic, but that's just how I'm viewing this season.

 

[DaNaultinus]

Can't wait to come back to this thread when its playoff time.

 

[CCM19]

What if Price struggles?

 

[swint]

The Habs potential is basically as goes:

If Price plays and plays well, they make the playoffs but don't have what it takes to win the cup.

If Price doesn't play/doesn't play well, they pick top 10 in next years draft.

 

[Mario le Magnifique]

What if Price struggles?

That's what they said prior to the world cup too.

Price ain't struggling if he's healthy. He's a beast.

To me, the team is a big question mark as to how dominant it will be with Price in. No doubt they make the PLayoffs but contenders ? Depends on how our additions play out. Radulov, Weber, Shaw and Sergachev especially.

 

[Bedards Dad]

Fan 590 just said that Price won't be traveling to Buffalo for the game

 

[Habsawce]

Fan 590 just said that Price won't be traveling to Buffalo for the game

Injured. Nolan Patrick here we come!

 

[Burke the Legend]

Supposedly he has the flu, but maybe that's a cover-up for a crippling boneitis affliction.

The Montreal Canadiens team sv% would come out to .9262.
2406 shots against that would result in 177 goals against, this is 55 less goals. That is a massive impact. A colossal impact. An impact that that should not be overlooked or understated. It is huge.

boom

 

[SenzZen]

Injured. Nolan Patrick here we come!

https://www.nhl.com/news/carey-price-out-for-canadiens-opener-with-flu/c-282580442

Just precautionary. They knew playing BUF was an automatic loss anyway.

 

[FrozenJagrt]

Let's compare 1st and 2nd tier teams with the Canadiens, shall we? I calculated the total points from the lock-out season from 2012-13 to 2015-16, along with their regular season standing and playoff performance.

From best to worst:
Team: Total points from 2012-13 to 2015-16
(Regular Season Standing)
(Playoff Depth)

Pittsburgh Penguins: 383 pts.
(2013: 1st in East) (2014: 1st in Div.) (2015: Wild Card) (2016: 2nd in Div.)
(2013: East Final) (2014: 2nd Round) (2015: 1st Round) (2016: Champions)

Washington Capitals: 368 pts.
(2013: 3rd in East) (2014:9th in East) (2015: 2nd in Div.) (2016: 1st Overall)
(2013: 1st Round) (2014: Missed PO) (2015: 2nd Round) (2016: 2nd Round)

Montreal Canadiens: 355 pts.
(2013: 2nd in East) (2014: 3rd in Div.) (2015: 1st in Div.) (2016: 13th in East)
(2013: 1st Round) (2014: East Final) (2015: 2nd Round) (2016: Missed PO)

Tampa Bay Lightning: 346 pts.
(2013: 14th in East) (2014: 2nd in Div.) (2015: 2nd in Div.) (2016: 2nd in Div.)
(2013: Missed PO) (2014: 1st Round) (2015: Cup Finals) (2016: East Final)

New York Islanders: 335 pts.
(2013: 8th in East) (2014: 14th in East) (2015: 3rd in Div.) (2016: Wild Card)
(2013: 1st Round) (2014: Missed PO) (2015: 1st Round) (2016: 2nd Round)

Florida Panthers: 296 pts.
(2013: 15th in East) (2014: 14th in East) (2015: 9th in East) (2016: 1st in Div.)
(2013: Missed PO) (2014: Missed PO) (2015: Missed PO) (2016: 1st Round)


The moral of the story is, Montreal, despite their awful season last year, remains a TOP TIER TEAM along with Pittsburgh, Washington, and Tampa Bay. And they sure as hell are above Florida and Islanders. Not to take anything away from Florida and Long Island (they are trending in the right direction). But Montreal is among the elite in the East, even with a putrid season like last year.

Great post. To go further, I calculated the number of Stanley Cups that each team had won since its creation, and Montreal blows the league out of the water. Toronto is right up there too.

So we can see from this research that what a team did 2, 3, 100 years ago means jack all.

 

[Bedards Dad]

https://www.nhl.com/news/carey-price-out-for-canadiens-opener-with-flu/c-282580442

Just precautionary. They knew playing BUF was an automatic loss anyway.

Is this an upper body or lower body flu?

 

[Jigger77]

Let's compare 1st and 2nd tier teams with the Canadiens, shall we? I calculated the total points from the lock-out season from 2012-13 to 2015-16, along with their regular season standing and playoff performance.

From best to worst:
Team: Total points from 2012-13 to 2015-16
(Regular Season Standing)
(Playoff Depth)

Pittsburgh Penguins: 383 pts.
(2013: 1st in East) (2014: 1st in Div.) (2015: Wild Card) (2016: 2nd in Div.)
(2013: East Final) (2014: 2nd Round) (2015: 1st Round) (2016: Champions)

Washington Capitals: 368 pts.
(2013: 3rd in East) (2014:9th in East) (2015: 2nd in Div.) (2016: 1st Overall)
(2013: 1st Round) (2014: Missed PO) (2015: 2nd Round) (2016: 2nd Round)

Montreal Canadiens: 355 pts.
(2013: 2nd in East) (2014: 3rd in Div.) (2015: 1st in Div.) (2016: 13th in East)
(2013: 1st Round) (2014: East Final) (2015: 2nd Round) (2016: Missed PO)

Tampa Bay Lightning: 346 pts.
(2013: 14th in East) (2014: 2nd in Div.) (2015: 2nd in Div.) (2016: 2nd in Div.)
(2013: Missed PO) (2014: 1st Round) (2015: Cup Finals) (2016: East Final)

New York Islanders: 335 pts.
(2013: 8th in East) (2014: 14th in East) (2015: 3rd in Div.) (2016: Wild Card)
(2013: 1st Round) (2014: Missed PO) (2015: 1st Round) (2016: 2nd Round)

Florida Panthers: 296 pts.
(2013: 15th in East) (2014: 14th in East) (2015: 9th in East) (2016: 1st in Div.)
(2013: Missed PO) (2014: Missed PO) (2015: Missed PO) (2016: 1st Round)


The moral of the story is, Montreal, despite their awful season last year, remains a TOP TIER TEAM along with Pittsburgh, Washington, and Tampa Bay. And they sure as hell are above Florida and Islanders. Not to take anything away from Florida and Long Island (they are trending in the right direction). But Montreal is among the elite in the East, even with a putrid season like last year.

Last year the Habs allowed 232 goals on 2406 shots against for a .9036 sv%. They scored 216 goals, giving them a goal differential of -16

Let's make a few simplifying assumptions, because I want to illustrate the effect that the reinstertion of Price has on the Montreal Canadiens:
-Let's say that despite the offseason overhaul of the forward corp, they still repeat their 216 goal performance
-Let's say that once again the defense allows 2406 shots
-Let's assume that Price starts 60 games, and Montoya starts the remaining 22
-Let's assume both Price and Montoya perform at the same level they have for the past three years (Price has a .9310 sv% over that span. Montoya has .9132)

The Montreal Canadiens team sv% would come out to .9262.
2406 shots against that would result in 177 goals against, this is 55 less goals. That is a massive impact. A colossal impact. An impact that that should not be overlooked or understated. It is huge.

That would bring the goal differential from -16 all the way up to +39. Which would have ranked 3rd in the national hockey league last season. Does that make them contenders? Who's to say? Depends on how much importance you put on scoring more goals than your opponent.

There's a lot more going on here than just the addition of Carey Price, too:

-They just brought in Alex Radulov, Artturi Lehkonen, and Andrew Shaw to replace Dale Weise, Tomas Fleischmann and Lars Eller. One has to think that's a good thing

-They brought in Kirk Muller to run their powerplay. A man who has proven himself quite capable for running a successful PP. Even if you don't think highly of Muller, it's a change from the 25th ranked, 16.2% effective PP from last year. Again, one has to think that's going to help

-Alex Galchenyuk is slotted in at 1C, and presumably is going to see more than the 16:15 TOI per game that he saw last year. You guessed it, it's a good thing.

-They traded PK Subban for Shea Weber. This has been beaten into the ground. It's a bad thing. Not everything is sunshine and rainbows. I hate this trade as much as anyone, but you would be foolish to argue that this trade is enough to negate all the good that's going on

For anyone who maybe doesn't follow the Habs all that closely, don't think too much about the 22nd place finish last year. It's not indicative of who this team is.

Do not sleep on the Habs.

Couple of solid posts. Actual reasoning and stats and logic and everything!

But please try and keep it hush hush. Habs always do better when expectation levels are low. I hope the expert have them projected dead last to be honest!

 

[Brewsky]

Gally + MaxPac will put up 30 each. Weber on the back end adds toughness that the forwards lack. Markov also is a steady anchor.

They do lack forward depth, but Radulov was a big signing.

Not to mention the best goalie on the planet.

Playoff contenders sure. Once in the playoffs, anything can happen (what if Price goes into Roy mode, etc.)

 

[optimus2861]

The self-imposed handicap Montreal has at the head coach position ensures they won't get a sniff at the Cup this year, or any other year until such handicap is removed. Therrien is utterly awful at in-game adjustments - mixing up his forwards in his patented Line Blender doesn't count - or doing anything other than sticking with his already poor gameplan in the face of adversity. He's been seriously outcoached in every Canadiens playoff defeat of his tenure, and there's no reason to think there'll be any different result at the end of this season.

 

[Shabutie]

If the cup was given out in October, we'd give it to Chicago every year... I don't think we're favorites to win the cup, but anything can happen in the playoffs if Price kills it.

 

[Burke the Legend]

The self-imposed handicap Montreal has at the head coach position ensures they won't get a sniff at the Cup this year, or any other year until such handicap is removed. Therrien is utterly awful at in-game adjustments - mixing up his forwards in his patented Line Blender doesn't count - or doing anything other than sticking with his already poor gameplan in the face of adversity. He's been seriously outcoached in every Canadiens playoff defeat of his tenure, and there's no reason to think there'll be any different result at the end of this season.

Therrien actually leans on his assistants a lot for tactical stuff which is why losing Muller and then Gallant hurt a lot. Getting Muller back should be a big help for him.

 

[The Beyonder]

I think they'll be a playoff team you don't want to face because of Jesus Price, but they won't be close to contenders. Not enough depth upfront, down the middle; not a fan of their defence either. That team goes as far as Price will take them.