Last year the Habs allowed 232 goals on 2406 shots against for a .9036 sv%. They scored 216 goals, giving them a goal differential of -16
Let's make a few simplifying assumptions, because I want to illustrate the effect that the reinstertion of Price has on the Montreal Canadiens:
-Let's say that despite the offseason overhaul of the forward corp, they still repeat their 216 goal performance
-Let's say that once again the defense allows 2406 shots
-Let's assume that Price starts 60 games, and Montoya starts the remaining 22
-Let's assume both Price and Montoya perform at the same level they have for the past three years (Price has a .9310 sv% over that span. Montoya has .9132)
The Montreal Canadiens team sv% would come out to .9262.
2406 shots against that would result in 177 goals against, this is 55 less goals. That is a massive impact. A colossal impact. An impact that that should not be overlooked or understated. It is huge.
That would bring the goal differential from -16 all the way up to +39. Which would have ranked 3rd in the national hockey league last season. Does that make them contenders? Who's to say? Depends on how much importance you put on scoring more goals than your opponent.
There's a lot more going on here than just the addition of Carey Price, too:
-They just brought in Alex Radulov, Artturi Lehkonen, and Andrew Shaw to replace Dale Weise, Tomas Fleischmann and Lars Eller. One has to think that's a good thing
-They brought in Kirk Muller to run their powerplay. A man who has proven himself quite capable for running a successful PP. Even if you don't think highly of Muller, it's a change from the 25th ranked, 16.2% effective PP from last year. Again, one has to think that's going to help
-Alex Galchenyuk is slotted in at 1C, and presumably is going to see more than the 16:15 TOI per game that he saw last year. You guessed it, it's a good thing.
-They traded PK Subban for Shea Weber. This has been beaten into the ground. It's a bad thing. Not everything is sunshine and rainbows. I hate this trade as much as anyone, but you would be foolish to argue that this trade is enough to negate all the good that's going on
For anyone who maybe doesn't follow the Habs all that closely, don't think too much about the 22nd place finish last year. It's not indicative of who this team is.
Do not sleep on the Habs.