OT: MLB Discussion Thread: Part XXIV

[JCProdigy]

Re: The luxury tax. It's suppose to be punitive. It was set up to be so against the likes of the NYY, Sox, LAD etc. Whether fans like it or not, no team is going to stay over it for as long as the Yanks were during the 2000s because owners love turning the biggest profit imaginable. George was nutso and kinda a glimpse into how a fan would be if he owned a MLB team. "Winning is next to breathing". Hal, etc. are much more financially conscience and him and Cashman are definitely much more risk averse, especially after the A-Rod and Ellsbury contracts.

Still going over the threshold is cyclical as it seems going forward, teams will go over and then get back under. The question is when to go over and on whom do you do it for? The Red Sox signed JD Martinez last winter for 5 years at 22 mil/year. That sent them over the tax threshold and they gladly paid the 12 mil in tax as he was a main cog in getting them 108 wins and a WS championship. They will remain the main contenders for the WS the next few years and then they will do as NYY and LAD have done and reset the payroll again. The Yanks as well gladly stayed over the threshold in the winter of 08-09 when they signed CC, Burnett, and Tex. It brought them a WS ring and then they subsequently paid for it.

After Sonny is traded. If they take no money back in the trade then they'll have approx 17 mil to spend before the threshold. They still need two more relievers and a Didi replacement.

Pretty good article from SI:
The MLB luxury tax penalty is grossly exaggerated by executives

 

[2Leetch_94]

Anyone worried about the short meeting earlier or any possible mystery teams:

Bob chimes in for whatever it's worth:

 

[Irishguy42]

Yes, Machado is the perfect fit for an evil empire.

 

[JCProdigy]

Anyone worried about the short meeting earlier or any possible mystery teams:

Bob chimes in for whatever it's worth:

Eh, Cashman's got a serious poker face so who the hell knows what's going to happen. I wouldn't be surprised if they pull a Corbin and say they are only willing to go to a certain $$ and term or if they go all in believing this is their time to strike on a HOF caliber player to get them a WS or two in the next 4-5 years.

 

[RGY]

Him or Harper. They will come away with one and that is because, as the above poster mentioned, they are HOF players. And only 26 years old. While Corbin is a good pitcher and has a nasty slider, the HOF is not in his future, he is older, and he is a pitcher who’s arm throws a ton of sliders. Bottom line is I can see the Yankees brass oking writing the check for Harper/Machado given these factors and more.

 

[sbjnyc]

Part of the issue is this concept of a 300M contract becoming a 450M. Payrolls are taxed, not individual contracts. It's just a really weird way of stating it, that doesn't accurately portray the calculation. Of course a 300M contract could eventually become 450M, but it's weird to isolate individual contracts from a full payroll. And getting from 300M to 450M, It also assumes a full 50% luxury tax rate over the full term of the deal, which to me seems really unlikely. It's not "wrong," just weirdly-phrased and probably unrealistic (IMO).

And then the second part is the reference one person made to it applying to "all new contracts once over the threshold," which I don't really understand or believe to be accurate. Doesn't matter if a contract is old or new. They calculate your bill at the end of the year--doesn't matter what contracts got you there.

True enough but the reason you can sometimes isolate individual contracts is because the luxury tax acts as a marginal tax. When the Sox signed JD Martinez to a $110 million contract, they were over the threshold so when they signed him they understood the tax impact of that specific contract, even though it's technically not the contract that incurs the tax. But the idea that the luxury tax is insignificant is just silly. The Yanks paid $325 million over 14 years which is like being saddled with an additional A-Rod contract that you can't trade. The Yanks and Dodgers didn't just cut payroll to fit under the threshold to save a little money - they changed in response to how the tax changed. You won't see a team go over the threshold for 14 straight years again and I think that was the point and I think why teams are more hesitant to sign 10 year contracts. But as long as teams like the Sox Yanks and Dodgers can go over the threshold without being locked in to cap hell for years they'll probably make some exceptions. I think Machado will be that exception - not so sure about Harper.

 

[nyr2k2]

True enough but the reason you can sometimes isolate individual contracts is because the luxury tax acts as a marginal tax. When the Sox signed JD Martinez to a $110 million contract, they were over the threshold so when they signed him they understood the tax impact of that specific contract, even though it's technically not the contract that incurs the tax. But the idea that the luxury tax is insignificant is just silly. The Yanks paid $325 million over 14 years which is like being saddled with an additional A-Rod contract that you can't trade. The Yanks and Dodgers didn't just cut payroll to fit under the threshold to save a little money - they changed in response to how the tax changed. You won't see a team go over the threshold for 14 straight years again and I think that was the point and I think why teams are more hesitant to sign 10 year contracts. But as long as teams like the Sox Yanks and Dodgers can go over the threshold without being locked in to cap hell for years they'll probably make some exceptions. I think Machado will be that exception - not so sure about Harper.

Yeah I agree it's not insignificant. I can be really punitive. If you handle it right, it can be manageable for the truly wealthy teams.

 

[RGY]

Maybe CC being here one more year was one more factor swaying Happ to come back.

Also Heyman thinks Machado will be a yankee but after the new year

 

[sbjnyc]

 

[Bob Richards]

Orioles lost 115 games.

You might actually be able to sleep in for an entire series and win 2/3 against them.

 

[Thirty One]

Anyone worried about the short meeting earlier or any possible mystery teams:

The fact that they are not even meeting makes that team all the more mysterious and dangerous IMO.

 

[Irishguy42]

The fact that they are not even meeting makes that team all the more mysterious and dangerous IMO.

Calm down, Heyman.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

You had me until "Never sleep on the O's", chief.

 

[sbjnyc]

You had me until "Never sleep on the O's", chief.

O's swept the Jays in a series. He's gotta say something nice about them. I mean the O's also swept the Mets so how bad can they really be?

 

[East Coast Bias]

I imagine he figured "the O's are f***ing dogshit tho" wasn't the best strategy

 

[Machinehead]

Orioles lost 115 games.

You might actually be able to sleep in for an entire series and win 2/3 against them.

Somebody forgot to tell the Yankees this

 

[darko]

Andrew Miller to STL. Cards look good.

 

[2Leetch_94]

Yankees need to bring in Hideki Matsui to do what he does best, defeat the Phillies in crunch time.

 

[Machinehead]

Yankees need to bring in Hideki Matsui to do what he does best, defeat the Phillies in crunch time.

Fun fact: Joe Buck actually bored himself to death during this call and has to be revived by paramedics between innings.

 

[BlueshirtBlitz]

Wonder how the Mets fans here feel about this off-season. Mets have some holes and the Ponz are debilitating, but I really like the off-season so far. I preferred the marginally younger Grandal, but if Cano isn't a total bust I really like the look of the team next year (especially keeping Noah and McNeil!) I'm sour on the teams window, but if the up and coming powerhouse Braves stumble next year could be fun.

 

[sbjnyc]

Yankees need to bring in Hideki Matsui to do what he does best, defeat the Phillies in crunch time.

Everything about Matsui is great.

松井秀喜ベースボールミュージアム - MATSUI HIDEKI BASEBALL MUSEUM

Even the curry place named after him is great.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Bryce to tinseltown.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Bryce to tinseltown.

Basically.

This trade is f***ing bonkers btw.

 

[NYR94]

Wow huge trade.

 

[Irishguy42]

I'm going to laugh if LAD somehow doesn't get Harper.