- Status
LaffyTaffyNYR
Registered User
- Feb 25, 2012
- 17,113
- 2,662
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
Huh? Pitchers used to break at 35 or 40, not 25. And it was usually from arthritis or just a dead arm.
I can literally name 200 pitchers who most certainly did not "flame out" .
Guys that also pitched on four days rest.
Tom Seaver threw 240 innings at the age of 40. Guidry threw 260 at 34.
nolan Ryan? Steve Carlton? Roger Clemens? randy Johnson? pedro?
David Wells and Jimmy Key are the only notable pre-1990 recipients. After 1990 the cumulative quality of pitchers who received it are average at best. That is, until 2005 and beyond.
Funny. I had the pleasure if meeting Tommy john last year in a realty in Watertown. He told me he blames pitching coaches.
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
Partly true, but the problem nowadays is you have Cy Young worthy victims, which never ever used to be the case (except John, of course).
My question is why didnt the guys I mentioned ever get major reconstructive surgery early in their careers that cost them a season and a half?
I couldnt fathom Carlton, Ryan, Seaver and Guidry all going down in their youth in the same season with the same injury. Nobody could.
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
17futurecap
Registered User
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10831700/is-mlb-midst-tommy-john-epidemic
Long read, but lots of info in there, I think right now no one really has an answer.
I'm a Mets fan, but I feel for the Yanks and Tanaka. This is like when Harvey went down last year.. didn't see it coming.
I hope he will be able to rehab (it's awesome watching him pitch), but partial tears usually lead to TJ surgery it seems. If he goes under the knife, next time you see him pitch will be 2016. This has been a devastating year with all the injuries to pitchers.. Tanaka and Fernandez are the biggest shot down with these elbow injuries.
I hope he will be able to rehab (it's awesome watching him pitch), but partial tears usually lead to TJ surgery it seems. If he goes under the knife, next time you see him pitch will be 2016. This has been a devastating year with all the injuries to pitchers.. Tanaka and Fernandez are the biggest shot down with these elbow injuries.
I would be shocked if the Mets pitching was anything less than a top 10 staff next year. They will be loaded from top to bottom. This is a very deep pitching team.. they just need more hitters.
This division is a weak one, and I think it will be the case next year. I just wonder what if they had Harvey over someone like Dice-K. Besides the loss tonight, they have played pretty well. Let's get two out of three from the Marlins, go into the break and try to make a late push.
Zil
Shrug
- Feb 9, 2006
- 5,558
- 42
It's called survivorship bias. Young pitchers didn't just start hurting their arms in the recent past.
BlueshirtBlitz
Foolish Samurai
Harvey, Tanaka, Fernandez, Bundy, Taillon, the list goes on.
So much young talent. What a shame.
So much young talent. What a shame.
Hire Sather
He Is Our Star
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
Hurt is a subjective term.
Star pitchers from the past obviously through pain and discomfort. Why did they have the monopoly on 12-15 year consistency?
It's a societal problem. For four decades, star pitchers pitched on three or four days rest, started 35+ games a season consistently, between 260-320 innings and retired in their late 30s.
Then Magically in 2000, pitchers start dropping like flies?
Drysdale, Gibson, Morris, Palmer, Marichal, Lolich, Bunning etc.
Hell, Sandy Koufax pitched three straight Cy Young seasons after being diagnosed with traumatic arthritis. He won Game 7 on two days rest throwing nothing but fastballs.
Again, why did 1940-1990 have the monopoly on consistency and durability?
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
Three takeaways from the article:
1) bad coaching/mechanics
2) bad coaching/overuse at young ages
3) pitchers asking for quick surgery instead of traditional rehab or pitching through discomfort.
Surgery used to be a last resort. Now everybody does it at the first warning sign.
How did all the old school pitchers survive without all these advances in modern medicine???
Funny. It reminds me when teenagers ask me how I survived as a teenager without a smart phone and the internet.
Zil
Shrug
- Feb 9, 2006
- 5,558
- 42
No. It's not a societal issue. If you tear your UCL you can't just pitch through it as Tanaka proved in his last start. You can wax poetic about the decline in innings pitched all that, but baseball is constantly shifting and becoming more specialized. This isn't new:
http://www.sbnation.com/2013/12/27/5248222/history-relief-pitching-addison-reed-minor-league-god
Again, it's survivorship bias. Obviously the guys who wound up in the Hall proved durable over long careers. You don't make it to the Hall if you don't. Just because you can name a bunch of stars who didn't get hurt, doesn't mean that arm injuries weren't common. Any young flamethrower who came up and tore his UCL in the pre-TJS era would've just fallen off the radar or gotten worse and thus never reached enduring stardom. Also, some of those guys played most of their careers before 1969's lowered mound.
Do you seriously think pitchers didn't used to blow their arms out?
Read this: http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/the-long-sad-history-of-injured-pitchers/
Pitchers have been blowing their arms out as long as people have been playing baseball.
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/05/17/pitching-injuries-have-become-big-problem/BQwm7yd5uhwTCSicgK9VrO/story.html
So Tommy John himself, Dr. Jim Andrews, and one of baseballs leading developer of pitchers all say the problems begin when kids are young, yet you relate the spike to the advent of MRI.
You completely ignored my original point -- The elbow tears are ticking time bombs developed when theyre younger -- kids being micro-manged and over-coached. That's not waxing poetic about the glory days. That's a current societal trend that continues to split the country.
I mean, are you seriously denying that societal changes are not impacting the way athletes are treated, to include the coddling of pitchers, the over-development of pitchers, the malingering by pitchers, the micro-managing of pitchers?
A pitcher in 2014 is treated no different than an elementary school student. They are not allowed to make their own decisions. They have no autonomy. They go through their first 10 years of training with 10 different coaches or "experts" telling them to change this, tweak that. They've been indoctrinated by the system to think that being tough is being dumb, which we all know is certainly not the case (see
100+ years of organized sport before 2000)
Deny it all you want. The Stats, to include the spike in elbow surgeries vs shoulder surgeries, prove my point.
Zil
Shrug
- Feb 9, 2006
- 5,558
- 42
I'm not denying anything about amateurs, training methods or mechanics, but the fact is that pitchers have been breaking throughout and the game's history and will continue to do so.
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
Tommy John had the surgery in 1974. It wasn't until 1981 -- 7 full years -- for another pitcher to receive it.
Tom Candiotti received it in 1981 but he was a knuckleballer after the surgery.
David Wells in 1985.
There are rumors about Mariano Rivera, but he's always denied it. The rumor was that he received TJS in 1992. Regardless, he's a reliver.
Matt Morris received it in 1999 and had a great run as an elite pitcher afterwards, but retired at 33.
Smoltz had it at 33 in 2000, then became a reliever for four years. He says his plan was to slowly build back arm strength, which he did when he became a solid starter in his late 30s.
Dempster and Burnett got it in 2003. Both recovered fine.
Carpenter had it in 2007, rebounded with three solid seasons then retired.
Johnson had it in 2008, had two solid seasons, then became the worst starter in baseball. He's 29.
Volquez had it in 2009 after his AS rookie season, and has been trash ever since. He's decnt this year -- hist first decent season in six years.
Zimmermmann had it in 2009. He's a very good picther. Seems to have recovered fine.
Wainright had it in 2011 and is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
If that spreadsheet is accurate, of the 754 documented players who received TJS since 1974, only about a dozen or so went on to continue to be or developed into solid MLB starters.
That's like, what, 0.03 pct success rate, if you measure success as 10+ wins, an ERA under 4.00 and 175+ IP.
Tom Candiotti received it in 1981 but he was a knuckleballer after the surgery.
David Wells in 1985.
There are rumors about Mariano Rivera, but he's always denied it. The rumor was that he received TJS in 1992. Regardless, he's a reliver.
Matt Morris received it in 1999 and had a great run as an elite pitcher afterwards, but retired at 33.
Smoltz had it at 33 in 2000, then became a reliever for four years. He says his plan was to slowly build back arm strength, which he did when he became a solid starter in his late 30s.
Dempster and Burnett got it in 2003. Both recovered fine.
Carpenter had it in 2007, rebounded with three solid seasons then retired.
Johnson had it in 2008, had two solid seasons, then became the worst starter in baseball. He's 29.
Volquez had it in 2009 after his AS rookie season, and has been trash ever since. He's decnt this year -- hist first decent season in six years.
Zimmermmann had it in 2009. He's a very good picther. Seems to have recovered fine.
Wainright had it in 2011 and is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
If that spreadsheet is accurate, of the 754 documented players who received TJS since 1974, only about a dozen or so went on to continue to be or developed into solid MLB starters.
That's like, what, 0.03 pct success rate, if you measure success as 10+ wins, an ERA under 4.00 and 175+ IP.
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
I never said they werent breaking down in older periods. I said that more are breaking down today that 20, 30, 40 and 50 years ago.
And the definition of "breaking down" differs today from previous generations. Just like "getting your bell wrung" became "concussions" and are now "Traumatic Brain Injuries".
I think that has a lot to do with the a player's personal pain threshhold, which was obviously higher between 1940-1990 than today.
And that's where your argument breaks down. Every generation since the beginning of time calls those who follow them "soft" and "having it easy".
Mechanically, in a structural way, humans are not designed to be throwing baseballs at the velocities/duration/frequency that professional athletes do.
The Dr. Andrews article is as close to a smoking gun as we get. Pitchers are showing injuries and breakdown of their elbows and shoulders at accelerated rates compared to what we use to see (20 year olds w/ '40 year olds' level of damage). Is this because players are 'coddled' as you put it? No. I every day see pitchers as young as 8 having professional trainers/tutors (including video review/analysis). This includes thousands of reps, year-round at full game speed. Simply put, they are being subjected to mechanics that while making them a better pitcher at their age, has an adverse effect on their bodies.
And before you trot out another anecdotal list of pitchers who pitched for 20 years without an issues, I can easily share a story of a grandmother who lived to 108 smoking two packs of unfiltered camels a day. Does that mean smoking is the key to longevity, no, actual science shows the exact opposite.
Our bodies are machines, and there is only so much they can mechanically do before breaking down. Pitchers are burning up a lot of that mileage before even setting foot in the MLB.
Last edited:
When does Cashman finally catch some heat for a barren farm system and the massive 9 figure investments in lemons?
I think it has a lot more to do with the massive investments plunked down on these guys than any weird argument about pain threshold.
Im sure theres just as many guys that would pitch with a torn elbow ligament today compared to 1950. The team won't allow it today due to medical advancements and the investments they've made.
OverTheCap
Registered User
- Jan 3, 2009
- 10,454
- 184
Been wondering the same thing. Joel Sherman and a few of the other Post writers have been a little critical of him but that's about it. At least we have someone to replace Sather's title of "Teflon GM" now...
I don't know if people have lower pain threshholds today than then. It appears to be that way, but there may be more to it and the pain is real. You also have a game dominated by lawyers, agents, etc., and any pain you have needs to be checked out, double-checked, and the courses of action taken. In the '40s the guys weren't making comparably nearly this much money and there are sponsors and a host of other constituents who are affected by any one player. Have pain? Come out and make sure a small injury doesn't turn into something big. There are tons of examples where guys did choose to play with pain (heck, Gaborik played with a torn labrum, which I have and it's just hugely inconvenient; couldn't imagine for a guy who needs to shoot!). Again, I don't know if it's pain threshhold or career management that dictates certain things.
Oh - said easier - what Bleed Blue said, as I have now just read it...
BroadwayBlues
KK24
It's worst with Tanaka because he'll be missing a half season plus a full season. He'll be ready to pitch Winter 2015 but there won't be any games.
- Status
